I’m feeling very glad that I skipped my long entry this morning. I was looking at 2.2530 (61.8% Fibs) but thought that I’d skip it being an NFP day & also my first shift back at work (busier so can’t keep to close an eye on the charts).
I think that I’ll let this pair settle & show its true intentions. We’re now milling around that previous low & that’s a key one for me & the daily 200MA is going to be a factor very soon.
Good morning, Kiwi traders!!
A fresh article for you from Poundsterlinglive:
Will RBNZ Nip New Zealand Dollar Strength in the Bud?
Very encouraging for Kiwi bears 
Speeches and Articles | Bank of England
3pm (GMT): Carney appears at the European Parliament ECON committee.
While it is unclear to me what will be discussed, the Pound has picked up pace
and GBP/NZD has been banging up against 2.26, and the Cable against 1.51:
https://evermoney.co.uk/blog/pound-sterling-jumps-up-today-ahead-of-carney-speech/
Bank of England’s Carney criticizes EU insurance, bonus rules - The Globe and Mail
No particular reaction thus far from Sterling…
Not surprising, given that there was no mention of interest rates, inflation, etc.
RBNZ rate decision and Governor’s press conference in just under forty-eight hours…
Unlikely to get much direction until then…
And then, again, the Fed’s rate decision is hanging over everybody’s heads just one week away,
so we may not expect too much of NZD/USD (and, equally, of GBP/NZD, or NZD/JPY) till then!
Between now and then,
a few events, but nothing of a similar magnitude…
Good morning, traders!
Is the market trying to front-run tomorrow’s probable RBNZ rate cut?
The NZD/USD has been selling off consistently in the last few hours:
lot of indecision candles. Looks like a buying opportunity with .66 as protective stop
I’m really hoping for some good news for GBP/NZD. I’ve already liquidated most of my positions, taking some heavy losses.
It’s never pretty when losses are involved…
Sorry to hear that…
I am also hoping for good news… After nearly four months, my patience is rather bruised!
Yes, I held on longer than I would typically. I trusted too much what I read about the fundamentals. They may still be proved correct, but it’s looking less likely. What stuck most in my head was Lloyd’s Bank forecast of GBP/NZD higher than 2.50 by year end. I’m still holding on to some small positions.
As long as one accepts that losses are inevitable in this game then it doesn’t hurt too much. Better to take some small lumps now and live to fight another day.
Fortunately I’ve been doing well on other trades which helps lessen the blow.
And that rejection candle off 2.2600 was enough for me to take a long; I had quite a big stop on it though so only 2R in it. It was still nice to wake up to though.
I’ve not really been watching the pair long, but recently I think when a rate change has been made the candle has just primarily been moved in one direction. I think with everything that is going on and the close split on expectations of a drop or not, that we could have a couple of stop grabbers going on tonight. Purely a guess, but it will be interesting to see.
Interesting read
…the push to 2.29 has been a GBP/USD-induced move, as NZD/USD has been floating around 0.66 most of the day… The FTSE100 has plummeted, and this has an inverse correlation to Sterling, generally, so that could be what pushed the Pound higher…
Certainly, the GBP/NZD move is not motivated by am expectation of a BoE rate hike tomorrow, nor is it initiated by a sharp move lower in NZD/USD today…
As always, this pair has an interesting and complex dynamism, which is why we love it so much (well, most of the time)!
Dow is also taking a battering, from 259 points up to 150 points down
And the S&P500 has spanned a bearish candle of about 450 pips, high to low…
Are we getting ready for Risk Aversion fireworks?
Sell Sell Sell
So, rate cut is met with an initial bearish move, and then indifference…
This is clearly a market that is far too complacent, and probably just rabbit-in-the-headlights-focused on the Fed decision
of next week!
This chart screenshots (hourly) shows how the last three hours (from 8pm GMT, time of the RBNZ rate decision)
have really not done anything to dislodge GBP/NZD from the 2.25 - 2.30 zone’s trap:
However, as the Asian session opens now, GBP/NZD’s first 5m candle from 11pm GMT has shot up about 60 pips from 2.2525,
and the second candle (from 11.05pm) also looks to be bullish…
Keep an eye on the Asian session!
Peace.
