I’m short with the audusd. TP at 0.7006.
AUD / USD I will wait for a breakthrough down. There is a trend down. Tenkan, Kijun and Ishimoku cloud lined up in order of seniority periods. We can see a flat correction now, which seems to end with a continuation of the trend. I will not risk selling a pair, but I will buy lower. Daily.
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I’ve opened long position at .6929. I hope the price above .7050.
Oh, Yes! The oscillators are already oversold. Stochastic is below 20, RSI fell below 30. Although Ichimoku shows a downward trend, the distance between Tenkan and Kijun is large. This means the trend is not strong, and the correction should be soon.
Liberals won the election. Possible gap up with aud usd.
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Quite possible a gap-up on the Monday open, but I would expect no more so than occurred at the latest interest rate decision. Fundamentally, the AUD has further downside. Unemployment is nudging higher, home prices are falling, wages growth is at a record low, inflation is flat, and whilst Iron Ore prices are firming, there is currently no flow-through to the economy at large. Let me go out on a limb and remind everyone that the AUDUSD fell to around the 0.50 level in 2001, and stayed there for most of the year before breaking out to the upside. Australia avoided recession when the dot.com bubble burst due to its low exposure in the sector, and again during the GFC due to boom demand for Iron Ore. But this time around there’s really nothing to fall back on. My current target is 0.63100, and possibly all the way down to 2001 levels.
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Did anyone see what just happened on the AUDJPY chart? I’m looking at the 4-hr chart. That candle is not going with the formation at all
What formation?
Aussie is heavily under pressure and i think long term trend is not change soon . I am waiting 0.6950 area to add shorts
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Why is Aussie under pressure, you know? I just bought Audjpy and am worried. It may be in vain? Hoped, that Aussie long has been moving down, and it is time would already upward.
I believe pression comes from ChinaUsd trade war. I’ve opened a long position at 0.6929. According to my trading plan i hope the audusd above 0.7040. For Australia the trade war is a bad new, exports to China of oil, gold and minerals will be reduced.
Aussie 10-year bonds at record lows, the RBA is highly likely to cut official interest rates by .25% in June, with a similar rate cut in August, and introduce quantitative easing to stimulate inflation growth, which was at zero last quarter. The property market is heading down, unemployment heading up, and wages growth at record lows. Meanwhile, the US economy is growing, and Japan has reported growth for the first time in a very long time, so it would make sense for the Aussie to be weak against other currencies, including the Yen.
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Everything points to the AUDUSD moving lower…low inflation, lower interest rates, lack of wages growth, rising unemployment, falling property prices, and on it goes. Then, unexpectedly, the Liberals win the Australian federal election, which means AUD$387 billion in taxes are no longer on the agenda, including the abolition of Negative Gearing, new death taxes, and a grab for a slice of retirement earnings. In the background we have rising Iron Ore prices responding to renewed Chinese demand occurring at a time of reduced Brazilian production, a big positive for the Aussie dollar, plus, the likes of HSBC, Citi, and other major banking institutions revising their forecasts on property prices, suggesting the market has bottomed and a return to growth towards the end of 2020. Is it any wonder the Aussie is drifting sideways?
My long-term bias remains to the downside, especially given the inflation predicament for the RBA and the need to lower interest rates and perhaps introduce quantitative easing measures, but as we all know, nothing is certain in Forex. In the meantime, I am content to take advantage of the short-term range and await more concrete signs for long-term confirmation.
I forecast a stronger AUD on the eve of the election and a fortnight later this is still the case. Thank you Ladbrokes…
The AUD remains theoretically pegged to the USD. Most resource exports are aimed into Asia, which measures by the USD. Trump, hate him or like him is doing great things for the US economy and we have seen moderate growth in the USD over the past 18 months, unfortunately at the expense of the AUD. So the AUD against the USD is more than likely headed to the mid 0.60’s in the next few years.
So even though I agree with the AUD long term outlook being to the downside… the Aussie economy isn’t as stressed as it’s being reported to be. The fact that we have a Government that can rule in it’s own right (77 seats) for the first time since the early 2000’s is a big plus for the country overall.
Unemployment will be the economies undoing… Things maybe a little tough down-under but still better than the most western economies. Currently most can still earn a living, pay for their houses, new cars, and annual holiday.
RBA rates (not the Banks) doesn’t really tell the story of what is happening on the ground and you will find that the right-bias Governments tend not to get to involved in quantitative easing… the previous left leaning governments already gave away our future fund during the GFC… no money left to hand out…
The House Pricing drop BS only sells newspapers… Most Melbourne and Sydney-ites that have had a 20% reduction in the value of their properties in the last 12 months have benefited from 100%+ gains over the last 15 years. I’ve used 4% per annum for the last 10 years on properties I own, even when estimates of 10% - 12% where splashed across the Australian suburbs… now it’s no surprise that valuations have converged.
The reality being that properties where never really worth the obscene valuations in the first place. The housing price charade is merely a game… in 10 years time will be all but forgotten.
Wages rises are stagnate, House prices have stalled, Interest rates are at an all time low and possibly heading lower… even most consumer goods are cheaper today than 5 years ago… lower growth… this is the new reality. Any economies with inflation estimates above 3% in this day and age are tantamount to a ponzi scheme… Just saying China…
As at April 2019, roughly 66,700 Australian households were at risk of defaulting on their mortgage. That is the highest level in almost two decades. Price rises over the past 15-years are pretty much irrelevant. What matters is the current state of play and its impact on the economy. It’s about those who have entered the housing market over the past couple of years. This is the group that poses the greatest economic threat to Australia at present.
“Moody’s expects the mortgage delinquency rate to keep rising this year because of high debt levels, low wage growth and the conversion of many interest-only loans to principal and interest this year and next.”
Roy Morgan recently published these figures: Jan-Mar 2019 = 2,604,000 Unemployed
or ‘Under-employed’, or 19.2% of the total workforce. This is comprised of 1,345,000 unemployed 9.9%, 1,336,000 looking for work, and 1,229,000 or 9.3% under-employed. Hidden unemployment and under-employment paints a more gloomy picture.
The Rudd “Helicopter” cash-splash of 2009 was a fiscal response and paid via the Australian Taxation Office out of the budget surplus. By contrast, quantitative easing involves the RBA purchasing assets (government securities) from the market to increase the money supply and stimulate lending and investment activity. The RBA doesn’t run out of money, it just prints more, regardless of whether we have a right or left-leaning government. Keep in mind that the RBA is effectively a private entity that operates independent of the government. The more they print, the more the AUD goes down in value.
Now it is important whether the AUD / USD consolidates above the blue line (Kijun) or bounces down. If the day candle closes above Kijun, then tomorrow you can buy from the rollback. If the day candle closes below Kijun, it will probably turn down. Oscillators are overbought, the price can move down if there is resistance.
Anyone trading the shorter time frames, like H1, would have done very nicely following Trendswithbenefits forecast for a stronger AUD on the eve of the federal election. Nice call indeed. The AUDUSD is up around 110 pips since 18 May 2019, and if the RBA fail to cut rates today, it might just go a little higher.
From a daily perspective, however, the trend continues down, and is likely to continue in that direction at least for the next 12-months. The consensus among key industry analysts (NAB, ANZ, Citi, and the like) is a target of around 0.6500 after revising downwards their GDP forecasts. In the meantime, Trendswithbenefits is proof that short-term counter trends can be very profitable!
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That’s the $64 question today… None of the institutions really know what is going to happen next…
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