Hedging Question

No one can give or sell you a signal that is guaranteed to profit, if they could they would be trading it themselves instead of selling signals at $5, $50, or $500 a month.
The advice youve got above is the best, honest advice you will get.
Anyone offering you a sugar coated way out is misleading you, sorry to say.
Best of luck

Puppy0, I am sorry but Carlos is correct above. No one can give you a guaranteed trade. With some luck you may be able to get a strong recommendation from somewhere but there is no way of checking beforehand how likely it is to succeed. All trades are based on probability rather than certainty. In addition, if your remaining capital is so small, any recommendation is even more risky because there will be so little “breathing space” for the trade to go against you. This is a very risky alternative.

We are not saying you [B]shouldn’t[/B], we are saying you [B]cannot [/B]using the method you outlined of closing and simultaneously re-opening another position at the same level because it achieves nothing, your situation remains identical!

You have actually realised this yourself, and you were correct, when you said earlier:

… new position 2 must be opened immediately or as fast as possible after previous position 2 with minimum profit was closed. But if I am really so fast as I am saying then price of opening position 2 will be very very very similar, sometimes even identical, than the price where I closed previous position 2. So if the closing price of previous position 2 and opening price of new position 2 are so much similar (sometimes even identical), where would I benefit here?

Simply put, you do not benefit at all. You only [I]have [/I]2 options: either reinstate your hedge immediately (and change nothing) or close position 2 hedge and wait for position 1 to improve - but this is, of course, once again an open position.

You have my complete sympathies for your situation but there really is no magic solution here where you can recover your position without any risk. As RhodyTrader states: the money is lost even though the positions are still open - the loss is locked into your positions and you must decide whether to close it all, rescue what is left and call it a day or try to trade your way out by lifting one leg - whether you do that based on your own analysis or the recommendations of a third party, you must understand that you are fully at risk of loosing the rest of your account.

I truly wish you the best with this…

those were very sad news, i am seriously worried about the current % loss :frowning:

Yes, I agree, it is a very sad situation and I truly feel for you. I think you have been drawn into a field that you do not fully understand as to how it works and the risks involved. One should never, ever, trade forex with money that one cannot afford to lose.

Actually, I was thinking about your comments on hedging and I am really mystified as to where you got the concept of closing and simultaneously re-opening your hedge position as a way to reduce the distance between your two positions, 1 and 2.

I can only think that there has been some misunderstanding here. The only approach that I could imagine might come anywhere close to this (which I do[B] not[/B] believe could work[B] nor would I ever recommend it[/B]!) would be, for example:

Position 1 is long and currently losing. Position 2 is a short hedge and currently in profit. If the price starts to rise and comes close to the entry level of Pos 2, then one could assume that price wont just stop right there but could probably continue for a least a few pips even higher than the Pos 2 entry level. Therefore if Pos 2 is closed with a few pips profit and then re-opened, after a small wait, when the price rises a few pips more, then the two positions would be closer together. In theory, by repeating these iterations you would be incrementally closing the gap between Pos 1 and Pos 2.

Nice theory, [I]but hardly likely to succeed[/I]. Essentially, you would be scalping for a few pips each trade and requiring almost 100% success rate. Also whenever the price failed to rise but dropped back instead, you would have to immediately reinstate your hedge at an even worse level than before. Either your account will eventually exhaust itself or it will drive you mad with exasperation. And if you have so far been unable to profit on your normal trades why would you now be able to trade almost 100% successfully on such scalps which are nothing more than a series of short-term open directional trades?

But there are some other things you mentioned that I do not understand:

But you also said:

If you have currently lost about 63% of your account equity, but are only a few tens of euros away from total loss of entire account, what size account and positions are we actually talking about here? You have 7 open positions? Are we talking about a USD100 account with microlots, that is currently some 60 USD down?

For what it is worth, considering the point you are now at, I think this comment is the source of your predicament:

There is no shame in taking a loss. Losses are an integral part of the nature of trading. The key to success is not in refusing to accept a loss, it is in managing the [I]relationship [/I]between your gains and your losses. It is literally a " 2(or more) steps foward, 1 step back" mentality. But if your 1 step back is actually a giant leap compared with a few mini-steps forward then you are going nowhere.

Losses in trading are the same as development costs in industry. Product development costs money, but the profit from the eventual sales is intended to exceed these costs. Without investment there is no moving forward. In forex, without risk of losses there is no opportunity for gain. And this is fine as long as your gains exceed your losses - but this is not the case with your positions. Your losses have been allowed to accumulate to the point where they are virtually unsustainable.

I know there is no shame for taking a loss but I must not close a trade in a loss because for the first time ever I would need to pay some bill too on my own instead of being all the time financially dependent on someone else. High education doesn’t guarantee a job and regular income. So to earn some ‘‘salary’’ from trading, I need to take larger size positions. Also I have no budget (due to no income) to afford any loss.

No, it is around 1800 EUR account. Might be better that I used the term ‘‘few hundreds’’ instead of ‘‘few tens’’ but even if hundreds, the current loss is so close to account balance that only one single larger unwanted candle in unwanted direction could burn entire account. I definitely cannot afford account balance explosion because I invested all I had into trading account. As impossible as it sounds, the only solution I can currently think of is to do several phone calls to Exchange Market, tell them symbol being traded by me, tell them to move the current market price on particular level for few second. Then within those few seconds I go out with guaranteed profit and they move the market price back to previous level. The process of phone call can be repeated multiple times, once per one opened position. It could happen so fast that for sure 95% of traders won’t even notice. The other ones that would be ‘‘hurted’’ wouldn’t really lose any money because Exchange Market representative would then put the current market price on previous level immediately after I close position with basically guaranteed high profit.

There are several replies I would expect from you and other forum members to make based on what I said in previous graph and honestly, I admit it, it someone would tell me what I just wrote above, I would reply the same:

“[I]If this was possible, we would all be a millionaires[/I]”

or

“[I]There is noone on the planet who could manually move the current market price upon someone’s request[/I]”

However there are few legitimate and serious reasons why I would have all the rights to make such phone call and request this:

  • i am risking account explosion
  • giant current loss comparing to account balance
  • impossible to get a job here, although am sending job applications weekly, multiple times per week
  • no any kind of what so ever income, not being able to pay anything
  • spent few years on university, working hard (and succeed!) to graduate
  • not sure how does it work in other countries (probably not much different) but here you need to collect/pass/gather some decades of being employed in a job before you can retire. People who are like 10 years YOUNGER than me have a job and I don’t. Assuming they remained having a job, and most of them did, you can imagine how many years of being employed have people in the same age gathered comparing to me.
  • from time to time I see the graphs going in my wanted direction, reducing the current loss but instead going even far far far more into wanted direction, the trend changes to unwanted one is going into this way for a while. Sometimes even for such a large distance that all the positive/wanted movement is corrupted. The time is therefore lost again and once again I will have to wait for doubled (corrupted distance by unwanted trend that occurred after wanted one PLUS another wanted one to make some benefit and reduce the loss) distance in wanted direction to be done. I am [U]not young anymore[/U], it hurts very much that I don’t have a job and income but others do, and it is very unlikely that I would be able to wait for such 100% random movement of the current market price. So phone call and request the manual price to be moved to particular level (which might be impossible but no other way left) seems to be the only solution so far, particularly because I am risking account explosion but also because I need some regular monthly income so I can at least enroll myself to ‘‘employment career period’’ (retirement insurance). Most likely there is some better definition of this than what I typed in quoted text, I believe every country has such restriction.

However I will remain being patient, I will remain learning trading and will keep applying for non-trading related jobs with job applications, will keep staying [U]away[/U] from unethic/illegal methods of earning income as I always did, and perhaps some day the one from above will have something from me too :slight_smile: But first is to NOT lose everything i had that i invested into the balance on my trading account.

Anyway, to move from philosophical talk to more useful talk that will have more direct benefit: I guess the current best suggestion is to wait and close the positions when profit occurs.

[B]Manxx[/B] you said you wonder where did I see instructions that the point of Hedging is to get short and long entry levels as close as possible together. Many resources were ‘‘saying’’ that! The reason I assume is most likely the following: More closer they are, smaller will be the loss of position 2 (the one i had to enter by forcing myself because of trend going to unwanted direction comparing to position 1 i opened), or even the loss of position 1 if it goes to opposite direction.

Part of your problem is that, by hedging, youve locked yourself into a situation where your account cannot improve. As has been suggested, you need to decide what direction you think your trade will move in. If thats Long, then you need to ditch the Short trade even though you will have to accept a loss on it until, hopefully, the Long trade moves sufficiently in your favour for you to recoup your losses. If that’s too big a pill to swallow, how about just closing part of a trade until you feel things are beginning to turn your way?
Forex is a decentralised market, there is no one you can contact to ask for help.
Really feel for you, I can see you’re hurting. Best wishes.

Perhaps you could give a concrete example of a source for us to comment on?

Apart from that, the rest of your post is not related to forex as such and beyond the scope of my input, so I will leave that alone except to say that your suggestion to your broker would be easiest, and fairest, handled as a plea for an ex-gratia payment rather than a manipulation of prices.

Personally, based on your description of your circumstances and your approach to trading, I would say that speculative retail forex trading is totally unsuitable for you and will most likely end up in a state of financial ruin. Very many people try to earn consistent earnings from forex and very few (as far as I have seen) succeed.

Common general advice for someone thinking of trading full-time for a living is to have a capital base of around USD 100 000 and enough additional capital to finance running expenses for a 12- month period ahead.

The odds of you succeeding are really exceedingly small and your track-record to date is far from encouraging. But if you are really intent of trading then I can only suggest you close everything and salvage what you can of your capital, open a demo account and trade it for as long as it takes to make consistent profits and only then venture into real trading - and even then only on a realistic risk and money management basis.

I really hope you can find a suitable solution to your situation without resorting to forex trading and wish you all the best.

PS: I would also add that there is an extreme likelihood of erratic and unpredictable movements in forex markets over the next few months due to the uncertainties over the impact of President Trump’s adminstration’s actions concerning trade protectionism and other related policies. The USD is the most widely used currency in commerce throughout the world and the impact on USD strength and equities is yet to be seen. The forex markets may be very difficult for even very seasoned traders over the next 6-12 months. Be careful…

I completely agree: this (and the rest of the post above) represents exactly my own thoughts, from the thread - sorry. :8:

Manxx here is one example:

Although the described strategy on the video still doesn’t identically match to me one. Let me describe step by step the reason why would entry line short and entry line long, both into Hedging, have to be as close as possible.

position 1 = after my analysis i announce downtrend so i open position 1 (Short), on purpose with very high investment comparing to what could I afford according to my account balance

position 2 = suddenly steep uptrend occurs, loss of position one is increasing by far, getting worried for possibility of account balance explosion so I am forced to open position 2 (Long) to normalize the current difference between loss and profit

obviously naturally the main priority in the strategy*** is position 1 because this is the wanted one, so i am looking forward to close unwanted one (position 2) as soon as possible but only after i feel at least partially safe from aspect of account balance.

*** i am NOT directly referring to the actual video on above link but to the reason why should be both entry lines as close as possible to get out of both Hedging positions as soon as possible with the best possible profit.

So plan is:

step 1: i must first wait for semi-high or high (e.g. 20% and above comparing to the actual investment of position size) profit on investment of position 2 which is basically already against what Tommor said in the post number 8. On said profit i must refrain ( ! ) myself from closing the position and increase account balance.

step 2: waiting for position 2 to get to the minimum ( ! ), but still higher than the Swap if any (to avoid closing with loss), profit.

step 3: since position 2 is Long and since profit is being reduced to minimum one from step 2, this obviously mean the downtrend is happening. Here I am assuming the following: since downtrend is happening right now, it will remain for at least few seconds, if not even entire minute, sometimes even two minutes, AFTER i already close position 2.

step 4: now I have two choices, which one I pick depends on a couple of factors such as how much worried i am for account balance explosion, when do i plan (obviously as soon as possible) to get out of both Hedging positions, etc but most important factor is obviously the speed - how fast is downtrend occurring.

choice 1: go into new position 2 (Long) as soon as closing previous position 2. Obviously with the same investment.

choice 2: going to the graph M1 (time period), if not there already, and wait for unwanted (position 1 is Short and obviously wanted trend so unwanted is uptrend) trend to occur. As soon as it does, I open new position 2 (Long).

With respect to the assumption from step 3, I basically have guaranteed lower distance between long and short entry levels.

Why would be this important? Because I want to close position 2 as soon as possible. It is unwanted one. Closer it will be to the entry line of position 1, lower will be the loss if unwanted trend occurs. Then another plan is done:

As soon as wanted trend (downtrend) occurs, less time will be needed, upon trend change ( ! ), for position 2 to come into the profit and most important, NEW unwanted position 2 will NOT be required anymore. Why? Because current market price will be so low that I will be only taking profit from position 1 and not lose anything.

You are completely 100% correct that this video has absolutely nothing to do with what you are trying to attempt. In fact, it has nothing to do with hedging at all. It just tries to be a trading technique. It totally fails to notice that the gains taken on the profit positions are always matched with an increased loss on the remaining open leg. But I am not going to even comment on this as I am so amazed that anyone could take such an idea seriously - just read the comments under the video to get an idea. (I can’t believe I actually watched this stuff…!)

Your above plan is precisely what everyone has been telling you. You cannot improve your position without closing one leg or the other and hoping that the price continues in the direction of the remaining leg.

You can either do this in one go and let the price move either to profit or to a stop-loss, or you can try and do it incrementally by replacing the hedge position as soon as the open position again looks threatened.

Either way, you have to understand that as soon as you close your position 2, you have a normal, open, unprotected, position. This only works if you get the direction right, of course!

Good luck with your leg lifting and let us know how you get on!!! :slight_smile:

Aaaaarrrrgggghhh!

My sentiments exactly, I’m afraid. :8:

Lol, You don’t have to be. Care is just what we all need in all we do, this is especially true in forex market, we must exercise great care.

My god holmes, I just don’t know how you solve these devilish cases. I’ll call a cab.

Sherlock Holmes and Dr Watson are going camping. They pitch their tent under the stars and go to sleep. In the middle of the night Holmes wakes Watson up: "Watson, look up at the stars, and tell me what you deduce."
Watson: "I see millions of stars and even if a few of those have planets, it’s quite likely there are some planets like Earth, and if there are a few planets like Earth out there, there might also be life."
Holmes: “Watson, you idiot, somebody’s stolen our tent!”

Is that the polite version of “no s##t, Sherlock” ?

Are you still looking in here, Puppy0?

I would just like to ask have you unwound all or any of your positions yet and how did it work out for you?

I have bad experience when work using hedging, loss more wider than recover loss, hard part using hedging when should to open lock hedging, this is like as dilemma, if good in analysis might possible become profit, but if wrong the way also will making loss more

Are you still looking in here, Puppy0?

I would just like to ask have you unwound all or any of your positions yet and how did it work out for you?

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

Hedging is the most complicated trading style! In my early stage of trading I was interested on hedging but I blocked my trading account for three times by using hedging trading style! Actually, I seem traders need especial training on hedging trading style! It’s not applicable trading style for general Forex traders!