Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

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22

So it’s Thursday afternoon, and that means I wrap everything up for the weekend.

nothing too much happening in the Ichimoku universe for me this week. All observations made using Daily TFs.

Have a resistance line painted on the Daily EURUSD @ 1.2180, we’ll see what price does about this in the coming week.
GBPUSD hasn’t shown much promise this week either, and my first glance impulse is to just set it aside for a little while, see how it matures.
USDJPY is coming upon a very weak Senkou Ribbon, but still doesn’t draw my appetite in quite the right way to make an entry yet. Ideally, I’m looking for price to break through the kumo, then pullback and bounce off the cloud. But in all reality, this might very well not happen. Not crossing fingers or holding my breath on this puppy.
Been waiting for WEEKS for this USDCHF to give it up and collapse, and saw price close lower than it has in the recent past, so in anticipation of a drop, I’ve shorted it with a small amount(before you jump all over me, I know that I’m trading this one against the trend), and we’ll see how that turns out sometime later next week.
USDCAD has managed to break through the kumo to the short side, but the kumo’s littered with flat bottoms for now, so that’s a no trade as well. Flat bottom’s have treated me fairly poorly in the past, having a magnet effect on prices.
AUDUSD is utter nonsense to me, I’m probably not even going to bother touching this one until sometime later next month.
NZDUSD has an interesting pattern happening with higher highs and simultaneously lower lows right now. Just as much nonsense as AUDUSD. It’s a no play for me.
GBPCHF is showing some strength in an uptrend right now, I’ve been able to draw a trendline from late March’s price of 1.5800 to yesterday’s candle’s lower shade at 1.6650. Entered a long position in anticipation of a continuation to a previous high, somewhere between 1.6880 and 1.6950.
GBPJPY is on the road to challenging a weak kumo in the near future, I’m going to wait to see how this one reacts to resistance at the cloud before making any decisions.
EURJPY is hitting one of my resistance levels at 111.00, so if price isn’t able to close above this line into next week, I’ll probably be looking for a shorting opportunity.

Week In Review:
Short USDCHF @ 1.1490
Long GBPCHF @ 1.6760

~Happy trails, kiddies.

23

Hey guys,

It’s a brand new week in the FX world, and I figured I’d take this time to elaborate on my trades thus far.

On my long GBPCHF, I have placed S/L @ 1.6640, and T/P @ 1.7000. The S/L is a little bit wider than I usually like, but I decreased my lot size to prevent myself from sacrificing more than my usual 2%.

As far as my short USDCHF is concerned, S/L is @ 1.1525, with T/P around 1.1400. Not a major money maker, unless it spawns more sell signals further down the road. Time will tell.

Also, I’m starting to look for a rise in USDJPY, so I’ve entered long @ 91.90. Again, had to set a fairly large S/L on this one, so lot size has been decreased a lot further than usual. S/L @ 91.00, T/P @ 94.50.

~Have fun and keep a smile on those faces.

24

Alright, so here’s how things are breaking down for me currently.

USDJPY long has reversed slightly from my entry, but it’s still within my SL, so it’s not going anywhere. Everything remains unchanged. SL remains @ 91.00, with a temporary TP target set @ 92.70. But, to be honest, I’m still not holding my breath in this one. This could be a while.

USDCHF short is turning out aright for the time being. i staggered a second order and closed out my first position @ 1.1300. I’ll be looking for a little bit more from this pair soon, but I think right now it’s just going to flounder around the 1.1300 range and pull back a little bit.

25

So I’ve decided to put my trading reports and analysis into a new thread, Ichimoku + Fundamental Analysis. You can find it in the Show me the money!(swing trading) forum, if you’re interested in watching how good/bad I do.

27

Hi. I am totally new to forex trading and very interested in the ichimoku system. I’m reading through the IchimokuWiki pdf and seems like the author is contradicting himself regarding the use of the chikou span. For example:

Page 25: If the cross is a “Buy” signal and the chikou span is above the price curve at that point in time, this will add greater strength to that buy signal.

Page 27: In the 1D chart in Figure IV below for USD/CHF we can see a bullish kijun sen cross at point A. While the initial cross is above the kumo and therefore a relatively strong cross, it is still beneath a very key chikou span
level (not visible on this chart), so we wait until we get a close above that key level before entering at point B.

Now I’m confused. Did i misread that part? Should the chikou span be above or below the current price to indicate a strong buy signal? I would appreciate some clarification on this. Thanks.

29

Hey vaznlyfe,

welcome to FX trading, and welcome to Ichi trading as well.

I can understand your confusion the two different-seeming definitions of price relation regarding the chikou span. I’m going to do my best here to explain it. Sorry if this is just as confusing as the Wiki.

Alright, CS ground rules first. The CS is plotted by taking the closing price from every candle, drawing a line graph between them, and then time-shifting them 26 periods into the past( moving them 26 candlesticks to the left). So, basically, this means that the most recent closing price is actually being compared to the candle that occurred 26 periods ago. If you use Daily charts, that means price is being stacked up against the price action from 26 days, etc, etc.That much I think we can all agree on.

So, this much we can take away from that:
CS plots closing prices, and moves them 26 periods(candlesticks) to the left.
If the most recent point of the CS is above the price action from 26 candlesticks ago, that can only mean that price has consistently risen for at least 26 periods.

Now, unfortunately, we’re missing that first bit of the chart from page 27, so we can’t really be entirely sure about whatever they’re saying. But I’m going to do my best to figure it out here.

The author said they would wait for price to cross above a particular level that was vital to the CS. This could only mean(in my mind) that price action had been above the CS up until that point, that is to say price was closing lower than it had 26 candlesticks before. A good buy signal comes from the CS when it is above the price range, and in order for the CS to do that, price has to have closed higher than it did 26 periods ago. I’m of the belief that in the listed example on page 27, the author was trying to stress the importance of waiting for the CS to float above price for buys, and below price for sells. They’re example was lost amongst the improper use of words, unfortunately.

If you’re still confused, the last piece of advice I can give you is to go back to pages 8 - 11, where the author first goes over the CS in detail, and try to figure the graphs in with pages 25 and 27.

Good luck vaznlyfe, let me know if your confusion gets cleared up at all, or if I need to find a better way to phrase my answer for you.

30

Thanks, Josh. I get it now. I mistakenly thought that you have to compare the CS to the current price. You actually have to compare it to the price from 26 periods ago. The more space there is between the CS and the price action from 26 periods ago, the more momentum there is in the current price right? So is it a good idea to wait for the CS to move out of the kumo before entry?

31

That’s a very interesting question vaznlyfe, I’m glad you asked.

When it comes to momentum in the particular scenario you’ve mentioned, I’d have to say it’s entirely up to your observation. There’s no reason to NOT wait for the CS to clear out of the kumo, but at the same time, waiting for it to close outside of the kumo could be seen as an additional strong entry signal. while I personally would not add much weight to a CS within a kumo, and I prefer to enter into trades at the earliest possibility, it couldn’t hurt by any stretch of the imagination. The worst it could potentially do to you is sacrifice some pips at the beginning for further trend confirmation, but that’s what swing trading is pretty much all about.

The best thing I could say is go back over some historical data, and observe some charts over the next little while, and see what happens. I’m going to be doing the very same thing now that you’ve pointed this out, and who knows, you may have stumbled upon one more way to confirm entry signals on the Ichimoku. I’ll post some of my research results in the next little while.

I’m still in the middle of looking into a combination of Heiken Ashi with Ichimoku, so CS-kumo relation will have to go in the queue for now.

33

Hi Josh,

Thanks for the PDF, I’ll have a look into it. I’m reading passionately originals of Goichi Hosoda. Ichimoku is one amazing system to trade with. I have recently recorded a video for youtube about what I learned reading Ichimoku Sangin’s writings, have a look alt let me know your thought on the topic. It’s good to surround yourself with likeminded people. [Removed for Forums Policy violation]

Regards,
Rafal

34

You dip deep and found a thread that was created 10years ago😃

35

I was looking for topic on Ichimoku and didn’t want to create new thread. I didn’t realise that no one was talking about Ichimoku for past 10 years haha

36

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Li61uti/

How do you spot these fake breakouts? All the signals where bullish so i would’ve thought that a uptrend is starting, but if i entered the price would’ve went straight down, anyone have a clear solution to this problem?

37

The pdf that u sent is powerful doing amazing results I do suggest we open a channel on telegram on those who use ichimoku and we do analysis there

38

The solution is to look at D1 and once you have a signal on D1 then you would be looking at H4 for an entry point. Plus you should be using time and Wave theories from Hosodas Books to fully take advantage of this indicator. Indicator itself will not bring you fortune if you don’t follow full system. You can watch my video where I’m explaining exactly what Ichimoku is.
Good luck, brother!

39

Thanks for posting this IchiWiki pdf! I was on that website almost every day studying the Ichi, and when the site went down, spent countless hours kicking myself that I didn’t save those pages (thought the Interwebs was forever, I guess). Good stuff in there.