The New Zealand dollar took advantage of the US dollar weakness recently and traded back towards the 0.7860 level. However, the NZDUSD pair struggled once again to clear the mentioned level and currently trading lower. The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) was released by the Statistics New Zealand earlier during the Asian session, which registered an increase of 0.3%. However, the REINZ house price index was also released, which missed the mark and declined by 1%. In short, the New Zealand dollar came under pressure during the last session and traded lower towards the 0.7720 support area.
There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which is acting as a support for the pair as of writing. The Kiwi dollar buyers are fighting hard to protect the downside in the pair. However, there are a few negative things to note from the charts including the fact that the pair is trading below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, which might encourage sellers in the short term. On the other hand, the bullish trend line is acting as a barrier for the sellers, which also coincides with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7617 low to 0.7864 high. So, it’s a fight currently and it would be interesting to see who wins the battle.
On the downside, a break below the highlighted trend line might call for sharp loses in the pair which could take it towards the 0.7640 support area.
Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the trend line in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is trading below the 100 MA.
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The Swiss franc traded higher against most major currencies including the British pound. The GBPCHF pair dived more than 2000 pips and traded towards the 1.2600 support area. The move was eye-catching and caught many traders by surprise. At one point there was a chance of testing all-time low of 1.14. However, the good point is that the British pound was less affected against the US dollar compared with the Euro. There is no release lined up today in the UK and Switzerland, so there is a chance that the GBPCHF pair might trade based on the market sentiment.
There was a monster support trend line formed on the monthly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which was breached after the SNB announcement of removing the 1.20 floor. The GBPCHF pair traded below the 1.30 level and literally collapsed. The monthly RSI reached extreme levels, and then the pair managed to gain a few bids. It is now trading back above the 1.30 area and currently trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5542 high to 1.2600 low. There is a chance of a spike towards the 38.2% fib retracement level, which can be considered as a major barrier for the British pound buyers. Let us see how the pair trades and whether it can recover ground or not.
On the downside, initial support is around the recent low of 1.26. A break below the same might call for a move towards the 1.20 handle where buyers might appear.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPCHF pair as long as it is trading below the 1.4000 area.
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The Euro performed very badly in the last couple of weeks not only against the US dollar, but also against the Japanese yen. The EURJPY pair is following a nice bearish trend and it looks like it might continue trading lower in the near term. The Euro zone current account data will be released today during the London session. Let us see how the pair trades moving ahead as there is a key support around the current levels. If the Euro sellers gain control then a downside acceleration is possible in the short term.
There is a nice ascending channel formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is currently acting as a support for the pair. The pair tested the mentioned channel support area on a number of occasions, but sellers failed to break it. However, there is a chance that the EURJPY pair might break the channel and trade lower in the near term. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, which is signalling weakness in the pair. It is important to note that the pair failed around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.38.72 high to 134.70 low recently, which is also a bearish signal. Let us see what happens in the near term if the sellers gain control.
If the Euro buyers fail to defend the mentioned channel support, then a break below it might take the EURJPY pair towards the 134.20 support area.
Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the channel support in the EURJPY pair as long as it is trading below the 136.00 level.
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While the major pairs such as EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD continue to move lower GOLD stayed on the top. It recently climbed above the $1290 level to set a new monthly high. Today, it even test the $1300 level, which itself is a major barrier in the near term. Most likely, GOLD might continue to trade higher, but we need to see how it behaves around resistance levels such as $1310-20. So, buyers need to be careful moving ahead. GOLD might correct a bit lower in the near term, which can be considered as a buying opportunity. There is no major release lined up in the US today, so it would be interesting to see price action in GOLD.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which might continue to act as a buying zone for GOLD buyers. It is currently around the $1300 level and there is a possibility of a move back towards the highlighted trend line. The most important point is that the same trend line is coinciding with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1254 low to $1302 high. So, a lot of buying interest might emerge if GOLD reaches the mentioned area. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which can act as a catalyst for sellers for the short term.
On the upside, a reaction around the $1310 level is likely if GOLD reaches there. However, the most important one is around $1320.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.
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The New Zealand dollar continued to move lower against the US dollar, as the recently released inflation report missed the mark. There is a lot of bearish pressure increased on NZDUSD. To add on the pressure, the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rates, which dented the risk sentiment and pushed the New Zealand and the Aussie dollar lower in the near term. The NZDUSD traded below the 0.7600 support area and tested the 0.7520 level, which can be considered as a short-term barrier for sellers. The Business NZ PMI was released by the Business NZ earlier during the Asian session, which increased from the previous revised reading of 55.6 to 57.7.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which stalled the upside on many occasions. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which might cause a minor pullback in the near term. However, the Kiwi dollar buyers might struggle to take the pair higher. Initial resistance can be seen around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7709 high to 0.7513 low in the short term. More gains might take the pair towards the 50% fib retracement level. The Kiwi dollar buyers could only gain control if they manage to pierce the highlighted trend line.
On the downside, the recent low of 0.7513 might act as a support. A break below the mentioned level could even take the pair below 0.7500.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies close to the 50% fib level as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
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The British pound suffered heavy losses recently against the Swiss franc as we posted earlier. Now it looks like the GBPCHF pair is forming a breakout pattern, which if breached might ignite swing moves in the near term. There is a major release lined up in the UK, as the retail sales data will be published. The market is not expecting any gain this time, but instead the forecast is slated for a decline of 0.6% in December 2014, compared with the preceding month. Let us see how the outcome shapes and affects the British pound pairs in the short term.
There is a monster contracting triangle formed on the 4 hour chart of the GBPCHF pair, which is likely to act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead. The most important resistance formed is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last major drop from the 1.5540 high to 1.2619 low. The triangle upper trend line is also coinciding with the mentioned fib level. It would be interesting to see whether the pair can move towards the resistance area or not. A break above the triangle might call for a major correction in the GBPCHF pair, which can even exceed towards the 1.3800 level. The 4 hour RSI is still around the oversold area, which means correction is possible.
Alternatively, there is also a possibility of a break below the triangle support. In that situation a retest of the post SNB event low is likely moving ahead.
Overall, one might consider buying with a break above the triangle resistance as long as it is trading inside the triangle.
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The Euro traded lower recently against the Japanese yen and tested the 130.10-00 support area. It is currently retracing higher, but heading towards an important resistance area. Earlier today, the Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total was released by the Ministry of Finance. The outcome was a touch better as the trade deficit was around ¥-660.7B whereas the market was expecting it to be around ¥-740.3B. Moreover, the Japanese Exports of goods and services, released by Japan Customs managed to register an increase of 12.96%. However, the imports were on the lower side compared with the expectation of 2.3% increase it came in at 1.9%.
There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which might act as a catalyst for the pair in the near term. Currently, the pair is testing the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 135.04 high to 130.14 low. However, the most important resistance is around the highlighted trend line. There is a chance that the pair might struggle to clear the 132.20-30 area and continue trading lower. The hourly RSI is still below the 50 level, which is a discouraging sign. A break above the trend line could be a bullish call for the Euro buyers and the pair might climb higher in that situation.
On the downside, the recent low of 130.14 might act as a support. A break below the same might call for more downsides in the near term.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURJPY pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
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GOLD after testing the $1270 support area managed to climb back higher and recently broke an important resistance area around $1280. GOLD managed to gain buyers lately as the economic releases in the US failed to match the expectation. It is likely aligning itself for more gains in the near term, and if the US dollar correct lowers then it might have one more reason to go higher moving ahead. There is no major release scheduled in the US today, which means GOLD might trade in a range or according to the FX market sentiment.
There was an important bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which was recently breached and opened the doors for more gains in the near term. The most important point is that GOLD is now trading above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. This might encourage buyers to take the prices higher. Any correction from the current levels could be seen as a buying opportunity. The broken trend line might act as a support, as the 200 hour simple moving average is also sitting around the same area. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1272 low to $1297 high is also around the same area. In short, there is a major support around the $1284-2 area.
On the upside, a break above the $1292 level might take GOLD towards the $1300 level where sellers are likely to defend more gains moving ahead.
Overall, one might consider buying dips GOLD as long as it is trading above the 200 MA.
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The Euro was seen consolidating in a range against the Japanese yen, but mostly struggled to break higher. There is a critical resistance around the 133.30-40 level, which is acting as a barrier for the Euro buyers. There are several important releases lined up today during the London session. The most important one is the Euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics. The market is expecting a minor rise from the last reading of 50.6 to 51.0. Let us see how the Euro reacts after the data release. If the outcome exceeds the expectation, then there is a possibility of a break higher in EURJPY.
There is a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which acted as a support for many times. However, the most important point is that the 100 hour moving average is acting as a resistance for the pair. There is a chance of a retest of the highlighted trend line on the hourly chart where buyers might appear again. There is a negative sign to note as well because the hourly RSI has slowly moved below the 50 level. Let us see whether the Euro sellers can gain control or not. A break below the stated trend line might push the pair towards the 131.20 support area in the near term.
On the upside, a break above the 100 MA might call for more gains in the near term. The next area of interest would be around the 200 hour MA.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURJPY pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.
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The US dollar moved a bit lower against the Japanese yen recently, as the later one got bid across the board. There were some low risk events lined up in Japan today including the Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance. The outcome was better than the market’s expectation, as it climbed to ¥675.2B from ¥44.2B. The last reading was revised down from the ¥45.6B to ¥44.2B. The Japanese yen gained traction, but the USDJPY pair has a major support formed around the 117.20-00 area, which held losses in the pair in the near term. Let us see how it trades in the NY session, especially after the releases in the US.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which is acting as a hurdle in the short term. The US dollar buyers have struggled time and again to clear the mentioned level which is currently around 117.05. However, there are a couple of negative things to note, including the fact that the pair is well below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Moreover, the hourly RSI has moved below the 50 level, which might encourage the Japanese yen buyers in the near term. A break below the highlighted trend line and support area could ignite sharp losses in USDJPY moving ahead.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the 117.40 level, followed by the most important one -100 hour MA where sellers might appear again.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDJPY pair as long as it is trading above the stated trend line.
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The British pound traded higher recently and enjoyed good gains against the US dollar and the Swiss franc. It traded above the 1.4180 level recently in GBPCHF where sellers managed to defend the upside. The GBPCHF pair looks like correcting lower, but there are several support areas on the way down for the pair. There is a major release lined up today, as the UK Trade Balance report will be released by National Statistics. The last reading was a trade deficit of £-2.649B, and the market is expecting £-3.000B this time. Let us see how it shapes up and affects the GBPUSD and GBPCHF pairs moving ahead.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which acted as a barrier for sellers on many times. The most critical thing to note is that the same trend line is now coinciding with the 100 hour moving average, which is a crucial support in the near term. If the pair corrects lower from the current levels, then it might find support around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.3782 low to 1.4185 high, which is just above the highlighted trend line. So, there is a major support around the 1.4080 level. If the pair moves lower from the current levels, then it might struggle to break the mentioned area.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 1.4185. A break above the same might take the pair towards the 1.4250 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPCHF pair as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.
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The Euro made an attempt to climb higher against the Japanese yen, but failed around the 135.20 level. It failed to clear the same on a couple of times. The EURJPY pair is now correcting lower and it would be interesting to see how it trades in the coming days. There were a couple of releases lined up today in Japan, including the Bank lending, released by Bank of Japan. The outcome was on the positive side, the Bank lending increased by 2.6% in January 2015, compared with the last gain of 2.5%. The Japanese yen somehow traded lower against the US dollar and the Euro after the release.
There is an important bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which might act as a catalyst in the near term. The most crucial thing to note is the fact that the pair is above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, which is a positive sign. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 132.50 low to 135.18 high. However, there is a chance of a spike lower towards the 100 hour MA, which is sitting around the 38.2% fib level. Any further downside might take it towards the 200 hour MA, which is at 50% fib level.
The most important support is around the trend line, but we cannot deny the fact that there are several supports around the current and lower levels.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURJPY pair as long as it is trading above the stated trend line.
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GOLD traded lower recently as sellers got control and took prices towards the $1228 level. The recent releases in the US were on the positive side, which pushed GOLD lower. Today, there are no major releases lined up in the US. The only low risk event lined up is the US MBA Mortgage Applications, which will be released by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Let us see how the outcome shapes in the coming sessions, as the last reading was 1.3%. There is no doubt that GOLD is under severe pressure and might trade lower in the coming sessions.
There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which might act as a major barrier for GOLD in the near term. The 100 hour simple moving average is also sitting around the same trend line. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1273 high to $1228 low is also around the same area. In short, there is a major resistance formed around the $1245 level which can be considered as a pivot point moving ahead. If GOLD moves higher from the current levels, then sellers might take a stand around the 100 hour MA. A break above the same might call for a move towards the 200 hour moving average.
On the downside, initial support is around the last low of $1228. A break below the same might call a move towards the $1210 level.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in GOLD as long as it is trading below the 100 hour MA and trend line.
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The Swiss franc suffered losses against many major currencies recently including the British pound. The GBPCHF pair traded higher and tested the 1.4350-60 resistance area. There was a major resistance which was breached by the British pound buyers and paved the way for more upsides in the near term. The pair is currently correcting lower, which can be considered as a buying opportunity. There is a major release lined in Switzerland, as the Producer and Import Prices is an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office will be released. The market is expecting a decline of 1.5% in January on the year-over-year change basis. Let us see how it affects the Swiss franc in the near term.
There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which was breached by the British pound buyers recently. The pair traded towards the 1.4360 level where it found sellers. On the downside, initial support is around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4000 low to 1.4358 high. Any further downside might take the pair towards the broken trend line which is sitting along the 50% fib retracement level. There are a couple of more things to note such as that the pair is well above the 100 hour MA and RSI is above the 50 level.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 1.4358. A break above the same might call for a move towards the 1.4400 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPCHF pair as long as it is trading above the 50% fib level.
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The US dollar climbed higher against the Euro and the Swiss franc during the past couple of sessions. The USDCHF pair is one of the best performers, as it is following a classic bullish trend line the hourly timeframe. Later today, during the NY session, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will be published. The Forex market is expecting a minor decline from the last reading of 9.95 to 9.00. Moreover, the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas J. Jordan is also scheduled for a speech later today. Both these events have the potential to move the USDCHF pair in the near term.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which acted as a barrier for the US dollar sellers on several occasions. The highlighted trend line holds a lot of importance, as the 100 hour MA is also moving along the trend line. So, if the USDCHF pair moves lower from the current levels, then it might find support around the 0.9300 area. The mentioned level is also coinciding with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9194 low to 0.9335 high. A break below the same might call for a test of the 200 hour MA, which is sitting around the 50% fib level.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 0.9335. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 0.9360 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.
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The US dollar weakened recently against a few major currencies, including the Japanese yen. The FOMC meeting minutes came as a disappointment for the US dollar as it was on the dovish side whereas the market was expecting hawkish. There were some important releases lined up in Japan. The Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total was released by the Ministry of Finance, which was above the forecast. The expectation was of ¥-1,691.0B, but it came in at ¥-1,177.5B. Moreover, the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance was also released, which came in at ¥-406.124B, down from the last revised reading of ¥-620.667B. Overall, the data was on the positive side, and helped the USDJPY pair.
There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached after the release. The downside was swift after the events and the pair moved towards the 118.42 low. The pair even cleared the 100 hour moving average, which is likely to act as a resistance for the pair in the short term. The pair is currently correcting higher and moving towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 119.40 high to 118.42 low, which also coincides with the 100 hour MA. So, the 118.80 level might act as a resistance for the pair moving ahead.
If the USDJPY pair moves lower from the current levels, then the last low of 118.42 might come into play again where we could witness a reaction.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it is trading below the 100 hour MA.
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The US dollar corrected a bit lower against a few major currencies including the Euro and the British pound. However, it gained traction against the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. There are many releases lined up today during the NY session including the consumer confidence and the services PMI. The most important one is the speech from the fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. A lot of volatility is expected around her speech and we can witness a lot of swing moves in the US dollar. The USDCHF pair is sitting around an important level, which means that if the US dollar gains traction, then the pair might rocket higher.
There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which might act as a pivot zone for the pair. The pair failed on many occasions around the mentioned trend line so there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9372 low to 0.9524 high. However, the most important support is around the 50% fib level, which is coinciding with the 100 hour simple moving average. A break above the highlighted trend line might call for more gains in the pair, but if it fails to break higher it might head back towards the last swing low.
On the upside, a break above the highlighted trend line might take the pair towards the 0.9550 resistance area, followed by the 0.9580 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.
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The US dollar traded lower to some extent against most major currencies, including the Aussie dollar and the Euro. GOLD was also not far behind. It was seen trading lower ahead of the Yellen speech, but soon after her speech it recovered ground and traded higher. GOLD buyers managed to clear an important resistance area, which means there is a chance of more gains in the near term. The Fed’s Yellen is also scheduled for her second speech today. So, let’s see how the dollar trades in the coming sessions. Moreover, the number of new home sales will be released by the US Census Bureau. The market is expecting a decline in January 2015, which if fulfilled might help GOLD.
There was a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which was cleared recently by buyers. Currently, GOLD is heading towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1236 high to $1188 low. The mentioned fib level holds a lot of importance in the near term, as the 200 hour moving average is also sitting around the same area. So, there is a chance of a correction in the short term, which might find support around the 100 hour MA. Moreover, the broken trend line might also act as a support moving ahead.
A break above the 200 hour MA could ignite sharp gains in GOLD, which could take it towards the $1220 resistance area where sellers might appear.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.
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GOLD dived sharply towards $1195 level recently and managed to gain buyers around the mentioned level. It corrected higher, but failed to move above an important resistance area. The recent price action suggests that GOLD buyers might make one more attempt to take prices above the $1210 level. It would be interesting to see how GOLD sellers react if it moves higher from the current levels. Later today, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released by Markit Economics. The market is expecting the US services PMI to climb from 54.2 to 54.8. Let us see how the outcome shapes and whether it affects GOLD in the near term or not.
There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which acted as a hurdle earlier and might continue to stall the upside in the short term. GOLD recently managed to pierce the 200 hour moving average, which can be considered as a positive sign. However, there is a major thing to note as the 100 hour MA is sitting right at the highlighted trend line, which might act as a barrier in the near term. Not only this, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1223 high to $1195 low is also around the same area. A break above the same might call for more gains in the near term.
If GOLD moves lower from the current levels, then the $1200 level might act as a support, followed by the recent low of $1195.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GOLD as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
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The British pound was seen correcting higher against the Japanese yen, but every time the GBPJPY pair made an attempt it found sellers. There is a major resistance on the way up for the pair which is protecting upside in the pair. There was a release in Japan today during the Asian session i.e. the Japanese Leading Economic Index was released by the Cabinet Office. The end result was not a positive one, as the Leading Economic Index registered a reading of 105.1 in January 2015. This was a bit lower when we compare it with the last reading, which was pulled down from 105.6 to 105.3. Let us see whether the yen loses ground from here or not.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPJPY pair, which acted as a resistance for the pair every time it traded higher. The pair is currently consolidating just below the highlighted trend line. Moreover, the stated trend line also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 184.30 high to 182.36 low. A break above the mentioned resistance area could take the pair towards the 100 hour MA, which is sitting right at the 61.8% fib level. The hourly RSI is also around the 50 level suggesting a break is near moving ahead.
If GBPJPY pair moves lower from here, then the last low of 182.36 might act as a support, and if it break then a test of 182.00 level is likely.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPJPY pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
