JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

@jawa: will you post up some new chart trades like whats on your 2nd post.

Hi Jawa

Look at some of the following examples. I tried to use the new version of your strategy. Correct my errors if I have done some :slight_smile:


At this picture you see the EUR/JPY 4H chart. There were 3 signals I saw.
The first was a valid pinbar. But the movement on the 1H chart was a sell signal.
The second signal I saw on the 4H chart was also a nice pinbar. But the movement on the 1H chart was a buy signal.
The third signal was an evening start formation. This was the SELL Signal. So the last signal gives me the right direction so far.

Watch details at the pictures below:


SELL Signal? Because the last candle is lower than the first?


Buy Signal? Because the last candle was higher than the first?

Did I was right?

Thanks

@smacko: i will friday :smiley:

@aserafino: Both one hour examples you gave are by signals :slight_smile: i used to do this too but it looks like you are forgetting that the bearish candles (white candles) close at the bottom, where as bullish candles close at the top, because the bearish candles by definition close at a lower price then when they started

All the signals you picked out were valid signals but again, both one hour pictures you gave are buy signals

This system is very accurate with determining prices next direction, you can see that it can both make and lose money by changes in price between conflicting signals, this past week has been the worst market for this system in months because of the European crisis, just looking at EUR/JPY you can see how far the euro has dropped, market conditions have been anything but normal but i am still up 450ish pips this week, the key is to not get discouraged i think, a lot of people can only take a loss or two in a row before they give up on a system for the week and then they miss all the profitable trades, Monday was a crappy day this week but the consistent profits from Tuesday and Wednesday have more than made up for it

SJ, perhaps you can post a few more winning trades with the 1H snapshots so people can see what you mean by the higher and lower closes versus the size of the wicks. I think there is still some confusion there.

@SithJawa
So that means that when I switch to the movements I have to look the close price for a bearish(bottom) and the bullish(top) and then evaluate if it is a buy or sell signal. Right?

Thanks for your help and support

Here are the past 7 trades on GBP/JPY (still my favorite chart <3), I will put one master picture with all of the trades on it than i will go trade by trade with pictures of every individual one hour chart:


  1. This signal had its first candle close .3 pips higher than the last, a very narrow sell! but that just goes to show that you have to be to the pipette accurate!

  2. This was an obvious period of consolidation and was also a buy signal as the fourth candles close was higher than the first

  3. A nice sell signal

  4. Another excellent sell signal

  5. This is a more advanced traders evening star, by definition even stars work with psychology so even a 5 candle evening star is valid, you can see that the first two candles combined signaled a trend in place, then a perfect indecision candle, than the confirmation of a down trend, again this is or those more advanced traders to spot so if you aren’t sure about a signal i would just play it safe and not trade it

  6. Apparently you can only have 5 pictures per post so… this was also a valid signal :stuck_out_tongue:

  7. An Perfect inside bar :smiley:

I didn’t have time to put up all the individual trades pip gains but EVERY SINGLE trade was carried through to the end thanks to the moved up take profits and stops, for a total gain of +600pips ish on GBP/JPY since tuesday evening

P.S. I dont see the point of calculating in for you guys the actual amount of pips i gained per say, i merely calculate the close to close from all of the trades which means spread and swap are not calculated in, as well as that the half take profits are not calculated in, i do this so that individual spreads can be calculated as well as money management strategies, out of the 600 pips i could’ve gained off this move my spreads and swaps took off about 6% and my half take profits another 23% ish, so in all still around 450 pips (again sorry for the crappy calculations, i am trying to get this to work all while being out with family, im being nagged as we speak)

EDIT: it looks like there was an ultra glitch when i posted this comment, i had to redo it like 3 times and in the end it makes you have to click on all of the pics to see them individually and my text is cutoff and i cant add to it for some reason, this edit post in itself is my third try and i hope it goes through this time :[ i will re edit later when i have time

DOUBLE EDIT: it has been fixed :3

Thanks for all of your ideas SJ. It’s been working out pretty well for me in demo and this is only like my second week demoing Forex.

2 questions, though. Whenever you place a pending order on inside bars, do you remove it after one or two bars if it isn’t hit, or do you keep it until the stop would have been hit or swing high/low or something else? I’m assuming you just get rid of it but want to make sure. Also, since you adjusted the zooming in method, is it relevant anymore if the last couple of bars on the 1 hour are pin bars? (You’re attachments aren’t working for me, right now, so sorry if there are examples there.)

SethJawa,

I’m unable to open your pics.

Greg

@philosophunculist: im glad ive been able to help :smiley: if you haven’t already i highly recommend checking out the babypips school of pipsology, i’ve gone over it a few times and still randomly click around through it when im bored

Like every other order i do not remove it unless an opposing signal occurs, meaning the order could sit there for days before being hit if an opposing signal did not come around (i’ve never had a pending order held more than a day), so as soon as i set the by or sell stop in place i leave it be until it is hit or until it is nullified by an opposing signal

Yes I am no longer zooming in any further than the 1 hour chart, all accuracy to the signals aside i was trying to make it more simple for people to use so the extra rules and zooming didnt help much, in addition the original idea for allowing two price action signals on the 1 hour to counter any 4 hour price action signal was because 2/4 of a 4 hour signal i considered strong enough to be indicative of prices direction and that still holds, however it did not offer enough good filters for me to justify it being in the system (although it did filter out trades occasionally very effectively, just wasn’t worth the extra complication)

@Greg Jones: they have been fixed :smiley:

That’s some nice work, SJ, good chart examples!

I have been thinking about this strategy’s advantages today and i have to say i looove it :smiley:

Pros:
Wins are allowed to not only run, but compound
Very high W/L ratio
Very easy to read signals, pretty cut and dry
Losing trades although very rarely allowed to compound are never allowed to run

Cons:
Small losses can occur when the market is indecisive

The principles seem to be very sound as they work when the market is ranging, trending, and in crazy markets like this week, I have backtested it all the way back to last october on 3 charts, and random months from the past couple years, and it has worked through it all (in fact up until a month ago i wouldv’e had my take profits over a hundred, the markets volatility has quieted down lately)

EDIT: I just realized a potential hole in this system that up until now has been unrealized (and hasn’t been come across yet), I just realized that because there are multi candle signals (the evening and morning stars) that there is POTENTIAL room for conflicting signals within a signal, let’s say at the top of a swing an evening star forms, but that final candle in the formation is a pin bar that when zoomed into the 1 hour confirms a buy signal, so we have two signals, one an evening star that says to sell and one a pin bar at the end of the star that says to buy, so which has priority of any?

I looked back over the past four weeks and haven’t seen any such instances but it is still possible so to address that possible question

Priority:
1.Evening and Morning Stars
2.Pin Bars
3.Inside Bars

The reason for this order is simple, the amount and quality of the data being checked by each signal, stars have three times the data an individual pin bar has and therefore can be considered much stronger of a signal, and the reason we don’t trade inside bars with a pin bar inside of them Is because the inside bars signal a small retrace it consolidation in the market, and if in this time of consolidation a pin bar forms we can assume that the price within consolidation is more likely to go the way that the pin bar shows

Hey I found something strange on the MT4 and MT5 platforms. On my platforms the candlesticks are very different if I watch them with the same H4 chart. Is it normal? It can’t.

It all depends on what timezones your brokers server is on, people have candles closing at different times of the day depending on the server they use :3

In my opinion the use of the EMA’s was maybe more sure then now because of the filter with the zones :slight_smile:

Hey jawa really impressed with the work your doing here, very nice straightforward explanations, I was just wondering a couple of things, how would you trade an indesicion bar that gave a buy signal In a downtrend? As its commonly taught to trade with the trend? Also what indecision candles do look for, is it just inside bars, pin bars and morning star formations? Are you trading completely naked now with the revised version of the system, no Indicators at all? Thanks for your help!

Great system Jawa.

Jonah nice work on the EA, out of interest did you update it to Jawa’s latest rules ?

Great work guys thanks :slight_smile:

@aserafino: Both trading off the closes and the EMA’s were very profitable, even though they trade off the same basic principle they go about it in different ways, if you backtest both of them you will see that there are some trades the closes will make that the EMA’s will get wrong, and vice versa, although i think it is much simpler to use just the closes as it doesn’t leave any interpretatino possible as the EMA’s were dynamic there would be times when you couldnt tell exactly when the candle had crossed an EMA, and then what if it was at the exact same price as an EMA?

@juicypips: To be honest it depends on how you are trading, the pros of trading with the trend are that all the moves you do trade will be larger then had you traded counter trend, and there will be more of them, and depending on the accuracy of your system it will also bump up your W/L, but with a pure price action system you can safely trade against the trend, in fact if you were for some reason to ONLY trade against the trend with this method you would still be very profitable, there is a lot of money to be made in whatever market, in whatever condition, no matter who is in control of the market (bears or bulls), even though yes the moves will be smaller and there will be fewer, it is still advisable to trade every signal even if they are against the trend

Everything I am trading is on the first post, and i revise it as i go along so it is completely current :slight_smile: I have trade most every price action patterns (tweezers, engulfing bars, triangles, pennants etc.) and i find these three signals to be the most accurate as well as the most abundant

Again, everything is updated as i make the changes so yes i am trading completely naked now :smiley:

@Sandybeach:Wasn’t sure if anyone was interested in it. Here is a modified version. This eliminates the EMAs and places star pattern priority above pinbars.

EA - JAWA Price Indecision System.zip (5.27 KB)

@SithJawa: Are you leaving trades open over the weekend?

Have you tested this using a single order, rather than taking partial profits with an additional order? What about using a tighter stop to improve the risk to reward ratio? Either of these if they backtest and forwardtest well would provide less risk and greater profits. Just a thought.

@jonah: I’m confused by your first question :3 if you mean have I considered not taking half profits at all and just kept my trades full strength to the end than the answer is yeees, If you backrest it months back you will see more often then not about a third of all the successful trades only go about 40 pips, meaning without the half take profits are profits could be potentially cut in half, the past couple weeks have shown large moves but that isn’t completely typical

As for the 40 pip stop it seems to be a magic number for the 4 hour chart, If you look back over past months you can see 40 pops gives just enough room to breathe and helps stay in successful trades :slight_smile:

That answers my question. I have been testing with a stop of 15 pips, b/e set at 30 pips and a take profit at 60 pips and have gotten pretty good results so far, but I have not backtested it. Figured that you had.

My other question was about market close. On friday when the market closes will you be closing out your trades or do you typically leave them open over the weekend, risking a gap in the market?