Ninja held Y-0 early in the week as support. Gave us a go for retest of Y+1 and potential upside breakout. Breakout happened but slammed back down hard on b.s. news. Y-0 was taken out on obvious stop run too. Yet, ninja immediately popped back up. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Since we cannot tell if the wild actions last week was a double stop run or if it is some kind of participants acting nervous, we can only assume both extremes are rejected. Until B+1 is cleared we do not have a clean upside breakout in place.
For now, B-0 should hold and give us a retest of B+1.
If B-0 is breached, it is likely we get a coil up first before another breakout play.
Took a whole week of up drift to go back up to the top of the resistance zone mentioned last week. Tight range and no conviction. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week high.
Outlook
It is rare that Cable has an outside week while Euro has an inside week.
Euro failed to take out the resistance zone by end of the week points to weaknesses. Inside week setup gives us a breakout play favouring the down side.
Potential whiplash action at Y+1 and Y-1 whichever tag first.
First test of Y+1 held ninja back. Y-0 acted as support on pullback. 2nd try at Y+1 cleared the resistance. Strong reaction right below 104 sending ninja back down to week mid. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
As mentioned last week BOJ and Japanese government would do something to disrupt the rally. As long as Y+1 not breached on 4 hour, we have to assume FBO against Y+1 is in place with Y-1 as target.
Japanese takes end of year holidays very seriously. Major slow down in price movement is expected until after the first week of next year.
Expectation of euro going lower paid off. FOMC announcement failed to swing euro above Y+1 and gave us the Y-2 target. Closed the week below Y-1 and midpoint.
Outlook
As long as B-0 acting as resistance, euro should consolidate with downside bias towards B-2.
Another pair that started out with a quiet week led to an explosive upside stop run. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
2nd time spike higher trying to clear the 1.65 area yet failed to close above the resistance level at Y+1 / 1.65. The intention is not clear at this point due to low volume.
Next week is still part of the holiday season making it not a good time to trade aggressively.
Lower open did not breach the breakout boundary. Yet first try to go higher stalled below Y+1. Successfully defended defended week low leading to upside breakout to Y+2. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
Outside week and breached the breakout boundary yet failed to close above Y+1. Typical low volume envrironment with false breakout everywhere. Need Aussie to find support at Y-0 and start going higher to confirm the upside breakout. Upside target B+2.
Waiting for the breakout paid off. Upside breakout tagged the usual Y+3 target and paused there. After NFP price zoomed to Y+4 and stalled. Closed the week above Y+3 and midpoint.
Outlook
Multiple week compression gives us this powerful rally. More upside is expected. A drift back to B-0 support is possible but not necessary.
Expected more downside last week and it looked like it was about to happen with the bear flag setup into Wednesday. Then everything changed by the eco report. Euro zoomed back up from a dirty bottom giving us the Y+1 target. Y+1 tagged and tried to breakout. It failed. Closed the week below Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Just like Cable moved by a statement, euro moved by a report that cannot be trusted at all. It tells us the environment is not stable. It happens when longer term players have very different outlook for the market creating huge consolidation zone that drives the shorter term traders insane.
In the case of euro, 1.35 is the official preferred rate as they stated last year while 1.38 is not “too desirable”. Work within the rules set by the officials for now should be a safe play.
A perfect consolidation week. Drifted up to resistance mentioned last week and then dropped down to support. Can’t ask for more. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
Inside week. Y-0 and B-0 near each other. Breakout mode in place.
Until Y+1 or Y-1 is breached, there will be no directional play.
It may take more than a few tries at the boundaries before they are finally breached.
Breakout happened although it is not towards the downside. Same drill with Y+3 normal breakout target tagged and consolidated around that since. Closed the week below Y+3 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Gold spiked higher and Aussie confirmed that. It is producing a very interesting setup.
If gold finds resistance right above and selloff again, Aussie will be forced to drop back down to at least B-1.
If gold can hold the top range from last week while Aussie pullback to B-0, upside breakout of B+1 will give us at least B+3.
