Market news that affect the Forex Market. Very important for fundamental traders!


There is lots of USD/JPY buying Wednesday during London trading, with turnover in the currency pair running at 147% of the recent average, Citi says. “We have seen good buying throughout the session, which has resulted in a huge bias in our flow of 62% in favor of buying. It would seem this fully explains the rise,” Citi adds.



Standard Bank goes long USD/CAD with a target of 1.0050. Steven Barrow, head of G10 FX research also recommends going long EUR/CAD with target of 1.3040.


Spain are will hold a bond auction tomorrow, Thursday (04/10/12). The results will be published on Thursday t around 08:40am GMT. Good luck if you trade EUR/USD when the results are released, expect some volatility


Rabobank: 25bp cut in refi, no change in deposit rate, but could
postpone decision to Nov. Expect further liquidity measures in Dec.

Barclays: No changed in refi and deposit rate. Expect 25bps cut in
Refi rate only at December meeting.

Santander: No change, look for 25bps cut in refi rate at Dec meeting.

RBS: No rate cuts, look for some collateral easing

Daiwa: To hold key policy rates unchanged. Expect another LTRO in Nov.

BNP: Both refi and deposit rate on hold, press conference do little to
encourage expectations of a cut.

Soc Gen: Probably do nothing more yet, expect Draghi to sound dovish
and supportive of EURO’s survival at press conference.



If you appreciate the market updates I am posting please ‘LIKE’ my updates so I’ll know you find it useful and it is helping you with your trades :slight_smile:


BBH: “We think the move in USD/TRY to 1.81 will prove a [TRY] buying opportunity for those willing to put up with increased headline risks,” says BBH. Adds that the pair has so far been unable to break the 100-day moving average just above that level; but if there is a move higher, this would open the door for a test of 1.8250. USD/TRY now at 1.8068

Thanks for your information. So I’ll like with pleasure.

I hope you have a pip filled day!


BNP Paribas recommends long GBP/USD trade following the pair’s recent pullback. “We enter long GBP/USD at 1.6140, targeting an initial move to 1.68, with a stop below the 200-day moving average, currently at 1.5787,” says the bank. Explains that open-ended QE3 in the US will weaken USD across the board while much of the bad news has been priced in to GBP already. “GBP will be vulnerable to a sharp rise on positive data releases.”

Nice little thread you have going here Mike… I am sure it will serve those interested. I like the short - brief but to the point nature you have as well. Good luck with this thread! :57:

Thank you :slight_smile:


Morgan Stanley lowers its USD/CHF entry recommendation for establishing short positions in the pair to 0.9325 from the 0.94 level. “The currency seems to have firmly bounced off resistance at 0.9400, the 200-DMA,” Morgan Stanley notes, adding the next key support level is at 0.9240, and it looks for the pair to head to that area if Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls numbers come in strong. The nonfarm payrolls report, due at 12:30 GMT, is expected to add 118,000 jobs.

Hello Mike

Appreciate your effort. You mentioned in another thread that this was the underlying factor for GBPUSD to reach 1.62 yesterday. I was just wondering how you were sure about it?

Bc I know almost everyday some bank or institution announces price targets for certain pairs. So what was so special about BNP’s recommendation?

I dont mean to be suspicious for what you said, I am just wondering why you said that was the reason.

again thanks a lot for the effort to share those information with us

When a large investment firm releases a recommendation many traders tend to follow it, thus resulting in a (sometimes temp) strong movement in favor of the recommendation’s direction (i.e. buy GBP/USD). It happens with Goldman Sachs recommendations as well


The Czech central bank is expected to weaken the koruna and the measures to do so could include unsterilized FX purchases, according to Barclays.

You should [B]NEVER[/B] trust a Bank’s recommendation… they are trading against you

But at the same time they dent their reputation, which is far more severe than profiting a few pips. They can get hold of ECN positions through the liquidity provider so I do not think every time a bank issues a recommendation you should avoid it. If nevertheless you believe the recommendation to be misleading you can always openan opposite trade and profit. I believe certain banks and with BNP it is a long term trade. Time will tell…

C’mon Mike don’t make me laugh… Seriously what reputation? They are not in the business for reputation, they are here for making money

Are Big Banks Criminal Enterprises? | ZeroHedge

And few pips may represent millions of dollars in a single trade…

Banks are market makers so of course they know a lot of info about the flow of orders… but believe me they won’t tell everybody their trades because they can be burned by a couple of banks playing against the position…

Banks trade for themselves and their clients… but big commercial clients… you are NOT a client. The real info of the flow is only for them.

Banks play a totally different game than you and me… their main concern is LIQUIDITY, therefore what they do is to make available to the public a “trade recommendation” so you and a lot of traders take that position and they go the other way eating up all that liquidity.

That is what I do :smiley: I am short cable from 1.6250 +360 pips profit so far… I think I am going to move my TP at 1.5787 :smiley: BNP stop loss

Let’s review GBP/USD price in the next 30-60 days and we’ll evaluate the success of BNP recommendation. PS. I will close the short trade in GBP/USD with the profit if I were you but this is my personal opinion. Great trade regardless of BNP


Commerzbank sees solid EUR/USD support at 1.2825 which is the 200-day moving average after the pair recorded a new low during Asian trade. “Should EUR/USD fail at these levels we do not expect it to experience a further round of party mood though following the recent disenchantment,” says the bank referring to investor disappointment after the two day EU finance ministers’ meeting. “We consider the upside potential to be very limited. The next resistance is located at 1.2975.”


Canada’s deficit for fiscal 2011-12, which ended in March, was a bit worse than expected at C$26B. The initial estimate for the U.S. fiscal year, which ended in September, revealed a somewhat better-than expected shortfall of US$1.09 trillion, about 7% of GDP. Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio is well below that at 1.5%. After 25 years of running larger budgetary deficits, Canada has seen stronger annual results than its southern neighbor for just over a decade, and that will likely be sustained for some time yet.