thanks Manxx.
continuing on with my trading, but also be using scraps of time i have to try to find a job. let’s see how it goes.
So [I]how [/I]are you going to continue? It would be nice to hear your plans (TFs, pairs, methods etc) and how you are getting on - and of course, if there is anything you would like to ask the forum.
Sincere personal wishes for every success…
[QUOTE=kingfish;783940]started full time trading 3 months ago, just went through a trade by trade analysis. frankly i am bit stunned by this discovery. but i have this cynical view that, the day i decide to ride it out rather than cutting the loss (or letting it hit stop loss) would also be the day i blow up the account.
i would appreciate if people on this forum can share some thoughts on this. does this imply stop loss is over
In my own trading it was more like 90% of my lossing trades could had been winners had a gave the trade more time and a wider stop. Some of the things I have down to combat this is to
Trade less
Only take high probability entry signals
exit a failed trade manually rather then be taken out by a stop loss order
Scale into a trade,
Most importantly have a trade plan for each trade, and stick to it.
This last one, think of it like going to a grocery story with a list in hand and only buying what is on the list, as oppose to the person who buy whatever attracts his attention
Good luck and keep reviewing your past trades, that is how you learn
hi dennis3450, thanks.
i started putting together WRITTEN trade plan now. but still sometime my impulsion got the best of me and i deviated from the plan. seems to me i don’t trust what i wrote down myself!!!
Kingfish as you can see , we all want you to do well . When it comes to stop lost , what i do is , i have a mental stop , but when i leave the house i then put a physical stop, and that is because i don’t trust the brokers. To trade full time , having a track record of good trades is very important too. Now you must know what you break even point is of livings expenses for the month are. Now you must have an account that can produce that amount and more monthly to be able to live. If you don’t open an account with that kind of money , you will be coming across with money problems, which will affect your trading allot.
thanks tonyro44
Hi kingfish!
Your id distracts my focus. Haha… So… Yeap its true to say that the market is very volatile. It’s like you are navigating the ship. If you fail to have your direction for sure you will end up lost in the middle of the rough sea and at the end of the day sink with your ship. Not only you… People who are successful out there and even myself and team was also have been in your place those days. Without realizing… The issue is just a matter of we did not find the right and exact map to find the route to the destination. To cut it short, I believe you are eager to success in trading as others do. IMHO what I can suggest here is that you can read these few min recommended books first in order to find the exact map as I mentioned earlier about Forex Market. Then you are ready to trade and subsequently accumulate your profit gradually. The best chronology that I can depict here is… How the &*(^ you want to make someone like you if you don’t know what he/she wants. To be certain, it’s not only technical involves in trading. As a matter of fact 4 significant pillars play their own part.
- Fundamental Analysis (Min: datas that I mentioned above)
- Technical Analysis (Min: Reg Line, Divergence, Fibo Ret, Fibo Ext)
- Risk Managment (Min: Limit to 2 - 5 % for every position and don’t exceed 10 - 15% of your total balance)
- Psychology (Plan your trade and trade your plan)
Extra reading Material (Min Recommended)
- Inside Currency Market
- Day Trading
- Trading Chaos
All the best kingfish (Come on you are the KING of the fish).
“Safe Trade, Trade with Conviction”
Cheers!
hi maximuscience, thanks for the advice, especially on planning the trade.
every week when i do the post mortem, there is always tons of regret, why did i chicken out, why was i so greedy, etc. then starting monday, i keep making the same mistake of not trading the plan. i guess everything else can be hurried, but trading psychology takes quality time to improve.
also i have this habit of looking at a live trade in multiple systems. not infrequently two systems give totally opposite directions. that could be another side effect of weak trading psychology, since if i have 100% confidence in my trading plan, there is no need to looking for comfort in one system this minute then another the next minute.
thanks,
Hi Kingfish.
I recently presented this exact issue to an audience of traders.
What you are describing is what I call an Illusion of Control. Here is an example I took from our database. The chart shows the journey of a random sample of trades. As you can see except for one of the trades they all are either profitable or at break even. From the picture you can draw the same conclusions you drew that holding onto losers long enough will produce profits.
One of the data scientists in our team was so convinced from this study that holding onto losers would be more beneficial and profitable to his trading.
I said to him he was wrong and that we can prove it. To cut a long story short we built a model which we then subjected to monte carlo simulations and proved that running a strategy without a stop loss based on “time” would severely under perform a strategy with a time stop loss.
My summary answer to your question or statement, is that your observations appears to be a fooled by randomness situation.
Good luck and honour your stops.
Hi Kingfish. I battle with not sticking to my plan and I have implemented a personal strategy that has really helped my discipline.
When you look at your last 50 trades you can easily see which were losers and which were winners.
But, can you easily see which ones you stuck to your rules on and which ones you ‘cheated’ on? I bet you cant.
To fix this: After every trade that you record, simply put a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’ corresponding to whether you stuck to your rules and allowed the trade to complete as per your plan.
You will be surprised with the results. AS newby traders we acquire so much ‘scar tissue’ from previous trade losses that we become slaves to every little movement against our position. Once you allow that fear to get a grip you will be defeating yourself and cutting out of trades too early.
I have found that it is not the market that is difficult to beat but my mind! Your mind is clearer when you are out of the market analysing. When you are in a trade your mind suddenly becomes your enemy because now it seems to find new levels, new dangers, new reasons not to be in the trade!
I wont babble on. Just try what Ive suggested it really helps. Now when I enter a trade if I start wanting to wuss out I just remember that it will be another ‘fail’ on my spreadsheet regardless of whether the trade wins or loses.
grantx, what you said is just so true!
i noticed the exact same thing. everything seems crystal clear after the trade is closed, but during the trade there are so much conflicting thoughts and anticipations whirling around.
will try your tip. thanks!
mickson, thanks for sharing the research result. very much appreciated.
still not clear why those hypothetical trades without stops eventual lose out in your simulation. the only thing i can think of is the margin calls due to account size. once the margin is called, it’s all over, even if the market starts moving to the favorable direction the next minute.
is my assumption correct?
thanks,
and the 20% that doesn’t become a winner would have become account busting catastrophes.
Nothing is worse for a trader than being stopped out by just a few pips but it happens, even to experienced traders. Spend more time evaluating where to put your stop loss.
…and then price reversing and going in your original direction.
My computer just doesnt know how lucky it is, so many times it came within a ball hair of being smashed to pieces and thrown out the window. You seen the latest star wars where kylo ren takes out his rage on that computer console with his light saber? Thats how I feel sometimes 
If you’re using trend lines or moving averages to decide your stops, always put your stop a little higher further than the trend line. Often pairs push the trend line in an attempt to push through it but it fails. Never put your stop bang on a support line or something.
Have a great week-nd great traders and we will do it again next week.
I would like to suggest that in order to minimize the chance of loss we should use the small lot size and should trade with the help of stop loss.