[I]Singapore is now the worldâs fourth largest foreign exchange (FX) centre, according to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The survey showed that the average daily FX turnover volume in Singapore was US$266 billion during April this year.
This was compared to the US$242 billion turnover volume in the same period in the last survey done in 2007.
Singapore was in fifth place in 2007 but it managed to leapfrog Switzerland in the latest BIS survey. Ths latest survey ranked Britain as the biggest FX centre, followed by the US and Japan. That also makes Singapore the second largest FX centre in Asia, after Tokyo.[/I]
NB trades the London open and does well with it. Long ago I would wake up very early to trade it, but these days I enjoy sleeping in late until 6 AM or so. The strategy is generally to take the trades in the direction they take right after the London open, cut losses short on any reversal or let profits ride if the opening trend continues. Often the market will trend strongly until NY open. If NY supports the trend and it continues you hold the trade, if NY reverses the trend you exit quickly with your profits. So, you take a very small loss on a false London open breakout, a good win on a trend London open to NY open, or a huge win London open trend joined in by NY open. Iâd look for other confirming price action or fundamental information to trade those London open breakouts, but I believe NB does well with it trading it on pure technicals. On the rare occasion that the London open sets the trend for the day and NY sustains that trend, multi-lot can make hundreds of pips per pair. It doesnât happen often, about once a week or so and some weeks it doesnât happen at all, and Iâd always be slow to put the second lot on, but when everything comes together just right, about once a week, itâs a beautiful thing.
Really good trading this morning. I held au overnight because hedge funds have been large buyers of au since last week and I was way ahead at bedtime, so no chance of a loss. I had many other valid breakouts and cblâs early this AM and took them according to my rules, always only taking cblâs if the midband is not pointing against me more then 2 Oâclock or less than 4 Oâclock. If I didnât believe my eyes on the 1 cbl, I waited until the 2 cbl for confirmation. All trades winning and second lot on gu long. Hopefully the markets will trade better after the US Labor holiday is over Monday. Everyone be careful of early profit taking on Friday ahead of the long US weekend. I may take profits with NY at the close today and not even trade Friday. Weâll see.
Your luck must be rubbing off on me
Two weeks positive. Both record weeks in $ terms. Iâll probably stop trading early Friday just to ensure I donât mess up. The challenge is week 3. Even if I come out $1 ahead for week 3, Iâll do a George W and declare victory.
Careful little stepsâŚstalking pips like my dog stalks rats.
can you see the bear candle that broke up trend line? then next one small one is also bear. According to your rules I have to enter short when that small candle is closed right? It means that my short entry is on open of bull candle which was rising to the trend line.
the price didnt touch bottom band as we can see. my questions are when and how to take profit?
thanks:)
ps: what indicators would you recomend to add to my chart?
OK, I see it. This is a good trade turned bad. Youâll get some of these. The fundamental reason it turned bad is hedge funds stepped in and started buying au like crazy. From a technical viewpoint, all you can do is cut your losses short if price goes back above the broken trendline. I would have taken about a 15 or 20 pip loss on this trade when price spiked back above the trendline on the bull candle after entry. Normally, you can ride these trades as long as they are making lower highs and take profit when a higher high breaks the down trend, but really, this one never got past entry since the next candle was up and spiked above the trendline.
You can avoid some of these things by requiring other confirming reasons to enter the trade, like a valid 1H cbl or good fundamental info or whatever. That may help, but in the end there will be a few bad trades in any entry system and you have to cut losses short to be successful.
On my charts I have 100 and 200 sma, BB with 1.0 std dev, 2.0 and 3.3, PSAR and below stoch. I also put in a white 2 period ema that draws a nice line chart between candles. My midband is a different color than the outer bands by overlaying a different color 20 sma over the std BB midband. I know thatâs a little busy, but Iâm used to it and you asked. If some of these are not of interest to you or you rarely use them or they obscure your vision of price action, create a âJunkâ chart just like your trading chart and throw all the junk on there. That way you have a big clean chart to observe price action and a junk chart for whatever you want.
My junk chart has all the above plus RSI MACD ADX ATR 50, 400 and 800 sma, and a million trend lines and s/r lines of fibs, daily HL, weekly HL and monthly HL and what ever Iâm playing with at the time. I usually can hardly see price action on my junk chart, which is why I keep a fairly clean chart for trading price action. . Then you can flip to the junk chart sometimes just as a visual aid, or just never use any of that other stuff, your choice.
Great results Hachiko! Someone who has never traded would think that the third week would be just as easy to trade positive as the first or second, but by now you already know the awful truth that Iâve been afraid to share. The level of difficulty to keep trading positive, week after week goes up with like the square of the week positive. So week 1, kinda hard; week 2 is like 4 times as hard to get out positive as week 1; week 3, nine times as hard; week 4 is 16 times as hard, just roughly from my experience. You can quickly see that live trading six months with all positive weeks is like 600 times as hard as trading just one week positive. Thatâs a scary thought, and only very few top pro traders have ever been able to do it. Really, only one active trader that I know of, but there may be a few others that are flying under my radar. Fortunately, it gets easier over time for just about everyone. But of course, easier is a relative term. It gets easier than flapping your arms hard enough and just in the right way to fly, but itâs still a little challenging compared to something simpler, like quantum physics
So yes, if you can get out one pip ahead next week, call that mission accomplished. Eventually, youâll win 4 weeks in a row, then 5, then 6, after that the game has changed. Each trade isnât for money, itâs to make one more successful trade without losing. Avoiding losses and cutting them short becomes an obsession, since thatâs the only way you can be sure you can always pull back ahead with just a single good win or at most two after a heartbreaking loss. The money piles up and itâs not about the money anymore. You are no more nervous trading $100 per pip than you would be trading 10 cents per pip. You just want to beat your own personal best and if that takes years, you are perfectly happy to work hard for years to do it, just as long as you can see tiny improvements that will carry you to a new personal best.
You are well on your way now. Iâm very happy for you :D:D
Hey hachiko! Well personally, it makes me feel like a traitor. Hahaha, i donât trade the usd sgd pair though due to the high spread. But still its good to know that our little country could actually offer such high liquidity!
I hope that has some good correlation to our stock market as i do trade stocks too.
Graviton, many thanks for the answer
Would you explain another case of trend line breaks. Its when trend line breaks with really long long candle almost to the opposite band? What is the strategy to enter to such trend?
This is a good trade turned bad. Youâll get some of these.
From a technical viewpoint, all you can do is cut your losses short if price goes back above the broken trendline.
If I will wait until the price go above trend line it will go against me more then 15-20 pips.
Very often I see that the price is going in particular direction but the candles have a long wicks. It put me to the situation when I do cut my losses fast like 15-20 pips against my trade but at the end the price is continue to move at the direction that I took.
I still dont know how to recognize if its the price has changed its direction or it just a spike and I would need to set more room for spikes???
its such difficult
Usually when you get those long candles breaking a trendline and going almost to the opposite band, say on the 4H chart, it shows up as a breakout on a shorter TF, like the 1H or 30M. I will often take a valid breakout all the way down to the 30M chart per my rules. If the breakout continues on the lower TF chart per my rules, that means the higher TF may be going into a walk down the band. The initial spike you speak of on the longer TF is the retracement against the initial spike breakout on the lower TF. The end of that retracement against the initial spike breakout on the lower TF is the best entry point. If you look at it on the lower TF, youâll see you are entering too early, before the retracement to the initial spike of the breakout occurs on the lower TF. Remember that a good trendline break on a 4H chart will run for many candles and probably all day, so there is no need to jump in fast. Thatâs the reason my personal trading rule is to wait until I have a full candle body breaking through the trend line before entering. Iâll usually move down one or two timeframes to time that entry and trading the 1H or 30M breakout makes for a better entry to what Iâm really trying to do, which is enter a trendline break on the 4H chart. Of course, you wonât always get a retracement to the breakout on the lower tf chart. But I always assume I will. If I do, I get a good entry. If I donât, I havenât entered so Iâm not at risk. Iâm missing a powerful breakout move on the shorter TF, but I miss a lot of good trades and I donât worry about those. Eventually, there will be a retracement that makes a good entry, there always is. Itâs just a matter of being patient. If you have to watch 50 or 100 pips fly buy while you are on the sideline, thatâs fine. It really costs you nothing. Jumping in and trying to chase a move just doesnât work. Wait for the perfect set-up. Be very patient. Better to not take a trade all day and watch 100âs of pips fly by than to jump in and chase and lose on a retracement to an initial breakout.
You have to have faith in your system and hang in there when the going gets difficult. If price flys 15 or 20 pips against you right on entry, that is an entry problem. You have made a bad entry and you need to work on your entry timing. Looking at it on a lower tf, you are entering right on the top of the spike of the initial breakout and then riding out a 15 or 20 pip retracement against that initial breakout spike. This is just the exact opposite of how you want to enter. You canât predict the initial breakout spike, so let it go by. You can know that half the time there will be a retracement against that initial breakout spike, and you want to enter just as that retracement ends and the move in the initial breakout continues. This gives you a good entry that will move in your favor, right after you enter. So, if you enter after that retracement against the initial spike ends, half of the trendline breaks on the higher tf will offer you a good entry timed on a lower TF. Half wonât offer you a good entry and you will have to wait, or you may not be able to enter the trade per good entry rules at all. You just have to be willing to let those trades go that donât offer you a good entry. In the end, youâll miss about half the good trades, those with risky price chasing entries, but the 1/2 that offer you a good entry will prove very profitable. So, donât chase price. Never chase price. Sit back, be patient and wait for price to come to you. If it does, trade it, if it doesnât, youâll be wise to find another trade, knowing that about 1/2 of the time price will come to you, so if you keep finding good trades and keep waiting for price to come to you, youâll get many good entries on many good trades over the long run. Donât chase price. Never chase price. Only take the trades where price comes to you.
Graviton, your words as always very valuable, would you please give me couple exemples so I can see the settings and the right pictures of the valid breakout where the price go to the oposite band or even below.
Also can you give an advice: I took the long entry on valid cbl 1H tf GBP/CAD.
Right now my downtrnd line that I drew from most extrem candle which formed on 31.08.2010 is below upper band.
when you can recomend to take the profit when the price reach this downtrend line or wait until it reach upper band?
If you can open H4 chart there is the volid CBL entry (I think)and the price has bounced off of the uptrend line which I drew from most extrim candle which has formed on 12.07.2010
Please explain how to target the profit?
thanks
I have studied Tymens thread for quite a time and I slowely start to get a hang of this forex trading, really very slowly but Im in no hurry:)
Then I found you and you thread it seemed that Im ending up in a goldmine. Some missing parts fell into place when start reading yr thread. You and Tyman are a very good team. Just to have the willigness to share you knowledge with us newbie is in fact as close as the âholy gralâ. I ever come near to. Exept my wife then:p
Hope you can stand my poor English.
Ps. On monday I put on the rubberband again and suffer pain -often these days!:D:D
Sorry, I donât have GBP/CAD charts from my broker. Sounds like a good trade though. Entries are tough and exits are much tougher. In most cases if you have a well established trend line and price hits it price will bounce off and you should take your profit. Rarely price will shoot right through and you should hold the trade, but youâll see many more bounces off a well established trend line than penetrations of it. Usually when price bounces off a well established trendline, it will travel a good distance away from it before retesting it. I wonât ride out those retracements. Iâll take my profit and look for another trade. Thatâs the best I can offer without a chart to look at. If you want to post up a chart maybe I can be more specific. Glad you got in on a good trade though
Yes, with the US long weekend coming up trading has been very slow. I worked all day to scratch out only 40 pips. Really, I should have just taken the day off. I think thatâs what most people are doing.
Hi grav, i have couple of qns. The first one may be pretty subjective.
As a trendline break occurs on the 4hr chart, would you consider entry using the 5mins chart. As you said there will usually be a retracement to the initial trendline break, so would you get entries on the 5mins or 15mins? Or would the 30mins be more reliable?
I realised something the PA moves so fast into our direction that i have to rely on the 5mins chart to add on extra lots. Thatâs when i can see PA the most clearly. Its like moving 1 step back and 5 steps forward.
And lastly, i remember you mentioned you went long on the aud usd on the 1 hr using 2 cbl entry. I believe most of us here would like to know whatâs the reason behind the trade and how you look at things in perspective.
From what i can see, the AU is in a nice daily uptrend channel.
However upon your entry, the 4HR had a breakout and retraced back. I believed after the retracement you entered on 2cbl entry on the 1hr?
Was that how you see it or is there something im missing down here?
Thanks!
Hi Graviton, I do glad too
More I trade more questions come up,
today I took long trade on H4 eur/chf squeeze, I have closed this trade with +80 pips then I reenter.
Right now my trade is running. I dont know what to deside to close this trade on friday or keep it runs as there is bull engulfing patern on daily chart?
I think you didnt miss this trade also
Another question I have.
I drew resistant level and downtrend line from higest high that has been created during particular period of time
Say, in a while the price has broked down trend line. Does it mean that the price will reach resistant level ??
I JUST have entered short on H4 chf/jpy uptrend line breaks. But as today is friday I dont know is it good to keep the trade running?
thanks
