I overshot my targets both by about 50pips. I wasn’t wrong about the trend. I’m going to spend the weekend looking at what I did wrong and why my targets failed. As far as today’s call, I think it’s trending in the right direction; after hours Euro/USD went to 1.2985 from the high of 1.3030. So the target of around 1.2930 should be revised upward to around 1.2940 (range 1.2935-1.2945).
Well, considering that we’re in a recession, and industrial production, retail sales, and real wages have been on the decline, I don’t see why it’s a big stretch that Euro/USD was at 1.5 months ago and where we are today, around 1.3. Europe, Asia is in recession; GDP has contracted. This of course is not a consequence of the fiscal cliff, it’s a macroeconomic trend. And US GDP has not yet contracted, so odds are it’s going to contract and once that happens (most likely at the same time), Euro/USD is going south. Just my humble opinion. I could be wrong.
I usually come back to the charts every few hours to see what’s developed over that time after an initial analysis.
By the way I use the line graph.
I’m not against the idea it could go down. At some point it will. My concern for you is more on the psychology behind it. I promise you this,if a fall is going to occur it will be evident in price action. And there will be plenty of pips to be made. Don’t work so hard at trying to predict the drop. Take advantage of what price is doing now. Because tomorrow will come and be another days version of now.
Had a look. I’m staying long for now. While this candlestick is showing signs of price rejection, its only part of the picture. At the close of Monday I will get a better idea of what’s going on. Bias is still long.
As a student of price action, I would say that there’s heavy resistance at 1.3000, and there is a high probability of some down side action; that downside may be the beginning of a heavy down trend, if it breaks above 1.3030, then upside resistance is 1.3160 (a lower probability).
I think the DOW will control it in coming weeks…
looking for trend change on the DOW drop of -100 or more… I think that will be the turning point…
1.2915 is the key support right now,
Your mind is making up these probabilities.
Yes, support and resistance exist. However the market will ultimately decide if the support or resistance reverse the course of price.
How it always turns out for me is that I hop on board what I believe is a trend already formed and I ride it out until it’d evident that the trend had likely arrived at an end.
For instance, if Monday closes lower than last Fridays candle I will likely place a stoploss ten pips below the low of Monday. Then I will wait and watch to see if price starts to range or if its going to continue up or head down.
We’ll see, there should be some headwinds before a clear signal is established. I like to make predictions, lol.
Euro/USD 1.2976.
At what point are you going to just say, F-ck it, and run long with me on EU?
went long late last night. As of this writing, target 1.3070-1.3080 intraday. high of 1.3160 for the week. I was off by 30 pips on my forecast; fortunately I caught my error and I should be more accurate now.
Intraday call 1.3070-1.3080 on the money!
My bias is still long. 155 pips up right now. No SL or TP set yet. We’ll see how the rest of the week develops.
Good stuff MG99,
Short, SL 1.3060. Target 1.2950
Wow, I take a few days off and this blows up into a major discussion. Thanks guys! All the responses gave me a lot of things to consider and the (mild) arguments and differing opinions are always helpful. Seems like the markets are moving a little more to my liking these days.
Bias is till long.
Hsiaoser… I still don’t know why you keep insisting going against me. 
Hovering under 200 pips now with EURUSD. No SL set yet. Let’s see how this plays out tomorrow.
entry long, intraday target 1.3160. short term target 1.3480. Stay long.
It appears that a lot of explaining is required… 78 post count now…
Doesn’t he get it or are we not good in explaining? 
This thread has evolved into its own creature.
The battle of EURUSD has begun!