First of all…I don’t care why a currency is moving neither direction. All I care about is that it IS moving and giving me a chance to make some money out of it.
I believe that from my perspective as a trader, I am obligated to take advantage of any trade even if the instrument I’m trading is my own country currency and is loosing it’s value.
From a little different angle…even if it should hurt me emotionally that the NOK is getting weaker against the major currency I have to trade it and make money out of it. I know that a a weaker currency may not be positive for my country and fellow neigbours but I need to survive and when my money is loosing value, I need to make more of them to make a living.
I never get emotionally attached to any instrument, I trade as I see an opertunity to do so. I don’t think everybody realize that for them to make money in this trading world, somebody else has to loose theirs.
I am neutral on it and for the next few weeks I will most likely stay on the sideline on most Euro crosses with the exception of EURGBP and EURJPY. It looks like the ECB will do something crazy hoping for a short-term positive outcome and sacrificing long-term prospects. They will do what so many forex traders do: Make a move and hope for the best without an exit strategy.
Should this happen I will move towards a more bearish point of view on the Euro.
“[I]The U.S. dollar plummeted Wednesday morning after December retail sales were much weaker than expected. The euro, turned positive against the dollar after hitting a nine-year low early Wednesday. The shared currency trade at $1.1835, compared to $1.1738 before the data.[/I]”
Market participants in aggregate ignore negative news and act on positive news during a bullish trend. Here we have negative news about the dollar and reporters try to paint a picture as if market participants acted negatively. But the numbers don’t match that picture for the EUR/USD as they claim. With 20 minutes in the session left, the EUR/USD pair is near closing just 7.8 pips higher than yesterday but with a high 13.4 pips LOWER than yesterday and a low 25.8 pips LOWER than yesterday. This reporter calls a 6.6 basis point move (7.8 pips) a dollar “plummet”! Perhaps he would call the 50.3 basis point (59.6 pip) move upward by the dollar against the euro from Monday’s to Tuesday’s close a “super-duper-major-insane-woah-baby-skyrocket!!!”???
The crowd is ignoring reports like this and acting on news that is bearish for the EUR/USD.
And now 6 of the 9 2015 sessions have shown lower lows.
G’day PMH. Hope your pockets are lined with green thanks to old m8 Draghi. Had a couple of short positions on EU and 1.18 was break even. Suffice to say these positions are now closed.
Mind you it might well be many years before such events of Jan 2015 are ever seen again.
But what now for the EUR??? Well my specialty is the EU but now I just don’t know. 1.12 is going to offer some interesting action as it marks the 61.8 retracement level on the monthly. 1.107 marks the completion of an ABCD pattern I’ve talk about before also on the monthly. So IMO plenty of room for the price to go lower. But then there’s the magical 1.10 mark
Now, have to be honest, all this talk of QE is a bit like casting pearls to swine in my case, I just don’t understand it. But I don’t have to. If you listen to the banks their sell side research has the general consensus that at Feb end the price will be 1.12. The question I ask is will the price approach that mark from above or below?
The game just got harder. So now I’m neutral. I’ll be looking for opportunities both ways and doing what I do best, working the tick charts. This business of holding a trade, locking up equity, exposing yourself to the markets not for me. And I just spent six weeks drawing up this 60+ pg plan on how I would do it. Shows how critically it is we each trade what we see.
But before I end I’m repeat an old phase “Buy in January sell in May.”
Yeah, notice you’ve been manking a killing on the NZD. Very nice bro.
Yes I think its fair to say my ABCD pattern is complete. Just went long at 1.118 but the price just push right though. For me definately time to sit on the sideline and look at other pairs. EUR against the USD definately into uncharted water. Nothing wrong with sitting on the fence.
Made a post a few months ago saying 2015 could be the year of the yen. Might head there. Gonna be tuff this year but then opportunity is all around us if we arm ourselves with knowledge. Thanks for the links.
Definitely feeling that. Yen should benefit from troubled equities.
Following the ECB’s stimulus announcement yesterday, it is time to vote again: are you long, short, or neutral on the Euro?
Short EUR/AUD from 1.43603
Short EUR/GBP from 0.78033
Short EUR/JPY from 139.964
Short EUR/USD from 1.23813
Waiting on new 10-day highs to get out. Could be many more sessions and much lower rates before then and swaps are all positive to boot. Holding on for the long hall.
She says: “the QE announcement from the BoJ last year drove USD/JPY from a low of 109 to a high just shy of 120 in 6 weeks time”.
It is obvious the decline in the EUR/USD since last July was pricing in some expectations of QE, but there are probably many who have waited to get conclusive word before acting accordingly and thus the collective bias of market participants could remain bearish for many more pips down into the loot latrine.
“The euro traded higher against its main rivals Monday as the initial shock from Syriza’s electoral victory in Greece faded, and a gauge of German business activity proved more upbeat than expected.”
There is (somewhat weakening) opinion that the USA will raise interest rates this year.
The Euro is a sell - however, retail forex are unfortunately also short the Euro, I’d need a significant pullback before getting in again. The QE perhaps is now “priced in”.
no EURO trades but looks pretty Bearish to me, the question is when and if that rebound/releif rally kicks in could have a few shorts running for cover. Unfortauntely I got caught out long the AUD…NOT Happy!
no EURO trade on for me at the moment, however the down trend does look very solid, i guess the big question is when the 300pip reversal is coming? who knows but still looks good on the Short!
