The 3 Duck's Trading System

[quote=“jas0992, post:3137, topic:6430”]
Why 60 SMA? Why not 50 or 70 or any other? Any special reason to choose 60?
[/quote]
Hey Jas, the 60 period sma is just a good “average”. No scientific reason why I choose it over a slightly slower (or slightly faster sma).

Andy
Captain Currency

Greeting Duck Hunters, my take on Eur.Gbp,

Technically: price (0.8950) is trading above sma on 4hr chart.
Ducks: Bullish.
Trend stage: possibly the early stage of a new upswing (hopefully not the top of a range).
Can it go higher? Quackometer says it 60/40 that 0.9150 will be hit before 0.8750.
Could we see pullbacks? Can fish swim …
Would I buy it? Yes, when all 3 Ducks line-up in the same direction and RvR is looking favourable.
Where trend may fail? I’d reckon if price drops >100 pips below the sma on our 4 hour chart, I’d go neutral.

Andy
Captain Currency

Hi Captain. At this moment, the ducks don’t seem to be lined up anymore for EURGBP. 4HR is still above SMA, 1H is just on the SMA and seems like its falling and 5M is way below SMA now. I looked back at the chart to see what they were showing at the time you made the post. At that time, 4H was above SMA, 1H had just made a newer high and 5M candle’s wick had just broken SMA and closed below it and since then it has been in a downfall. If you did take the trade at the time of posting this, I assume you might have hit stop-loss? All right, so this was me trying to understand the chart you posted.

Now, onto what I wanted to say. First of all, I DO BELIEVE your system works. I think I am doing something wrong or maybe just having a bad streak of bad luck. I’m on demo account, practicing your system. I am following your system to the best of my ability. This is what I am doing.

For long trade-
4H - Making sure the price is above SMA. Nothing else.
1H - Making sure the price is above SMA. Nothing else.
5M - I enter trade when the price breaks previous high (or if there is no recent previous high to break) AND the price is above SMA. If both conditions are met, I enter. I put a stop-loss below the SMA (sometimes a bit lower than the previous low if my risk tolerance allows me to otherwise just below the SMA).

How I have lost trades: I enter a trade when all ducks are in line and when on 5M chart, the price has met both conditions. And just as I buy, price starts falling and keeps falling until it hits stop loss. In another scenario, I buy and price keeps climbing for a bit and then sharply reverse and keeps falling until stop loss is hit.

My record of last 3 trading days is (apparently all were long trades):
Total trades = 17
Won = 9
Loss = 6
BE = 3 (breakeven means when I was able to move stop loss up to BE price and it got hit)

I may be looking at charts wrong or something. I don’t know if it matters but I do not care about red candles when I am looking at 4H and 1H as long as the price is above SMA (because there were no such instructions in your ebook). Maybe the recent few candles should be green which confirms the uptrend is still going before I move to 5M?

I need your valuable advice on what you think I might be doing wrong. Again, I think your system works. And I believe in it. I just need some more guidance. I would greatly appreciate it if you could help me out a little.

Keep it simple, wouldn’t say it about candles, more so basic structure - higher highs and higher lows are the elements that create a 4hr uptrend for me.

Also, if I was you Kohipeet I’d take a quick gander at What is a Trending Market? Always good to go back to basics ehhh.

Andy
Captain Currency

Oh Captain my Captain :smiley:
Working with 3 Ducks since a few months now is fantastic. Losses are small and wins are acceptable. To keep it simple is wise.
Now i have a question:
I’d rly like to not sit all day screening the charts waiting for an opportunity to trade on my own. Is there a maybe alrdy an existing group of Traders using 3 Ducks who share their ideas on a platform like telegram or similar? Would be best if you’d be part of it haha :smiley:
greetings and have a beautiful day Captn

Slow down man, you’ll end up burning yourself out. You probably know what I’d say; read the thread, dip-in and dip-out of it, many fine people have taken the time to contribute over the past +10 years. Read the eBook (again and again), then practise, practise, practise on your own charts and don’t complicate stuff.

Make sure your hopes are not unrealistic, Pipcrawler smashed it with his post on Expectations and the follow-up comments are on point.

Don’t kill me but trading is really a journey of a thousand (hard) miles #BloodSweatTears #NoHolyGrail #NoMagicIndicator #90%Fail

Andy
Captain Currency

Hi. Thanks for your reply. I’m sorry if you got offended. That wasn’t my intention. I have read your book a few times and I look at the charts for hours practicing your system. There were a few confusions for me which weren’t clarified in the ebook that’s why I asked. I’ll try to figure it out. Anyways, thanks a lot for providing such a valuable system.

1 Like

[quote=“Vaugrim, post:3145, topic:6430”]

Now i have a question:
I’d rly like to not sit all day screening the charts waiting for an opportunity to trade on my own. Is there a maybe alrdy an existing group of Traders using 3 Ducks who share their ideas on a platform like telegram or similar? Would be best if you’d be part of it haha :smiley: [/quote]

Hey there Vaugrim, I’m sure a trading group would have pro’s and con’s, wouldn’t be for me I’m afraid, I prefer working (and thinking) on my own …

Andy
Captain Currency

Nothing stopping you from jumping on board a moving train but bare in mind what the side note on page 8 of the eBook says. Ultimately it’s your call Jas.

It’s water off a Duck’s back, wasn’t offended one bit but I can’t stop you from having losing trades, it’s part of the game and we all have them.

A good weekend to all,

Andy
Captain Currency

Thanks for your reply!

I certainly understand that a good amount of losing trades will always be a pair of my trading career (if I am able to make one). All I want to do is LEARN to use this system to its full effectiveness. That’s all. And I sometimes get annoying with my questions when I am seriously trying to learn and understand something, so sorry about that. Thanks for all the help! :slight_smile:

Thank for you input Cap. I’ll try incorporate it.

1 Like

Hi FMIC,

Without any condescension, your posts 2795 through 2801 struck me as brilliant! What an eye-opener about how to trail: [quote=“FMIC, post:2931, topic:6430”]
First, just as the “Captain” explains, use the swing lows/highs, starting with M5, to trail your trade and/or stack orders. Then once the trailing stop has cleared the H1 swing breakout point, you can then switch to trailing on H1 and subsequently after cleared the H4 swing breakout point (and still in your favour which would mean a really major trend) then you can use H4 swings for trailing, but not before that. You have to slowly build it up. Also, note that it is advisable to use the swing points and not MA itself as a trailing stop.
[/quote]

Now as concerns the last quoted sentence, would you say that it is also advisable to initially place the stop loss - before any trailing occurs - at a swing point and not the MA?

Thank you,
Norm

[quote=“NormanA, post:3153, topic:6430, full:true”]Without any condescension, your posts 2795 through 2801 struck me as brilliant! What an eye-opener about how to trail:

Now as concerns the last quoted sentence, would you say that it is also advisable to initially place the stop loss - before any trailing occurs - at a swing point and not the MA?[/quote]

Yes, that was implied. A trailing stop is nothing more than a Stop-Loss that adapts to the market conditions as it changes over time. Just think of the Stop-Loss as the initial Trailing Stop position.

However, don’t take my Trailing suggestion as a “rule”. It was merely just one possibility out of many. Each currency pair has its own personality and quirks and the markets change continually. This requires that one also needs to adapt the trailing mechanism to best fit those conditions and that is best achieved by investing time in gaining knowledge as well as experience in trading.

2 Likes

Hi FMIC

I installed the indicator you offered in post 2721 and tried to figure out how to read it. I also referred back to post 145. Apparently, each row shows the bias of the three time frames of a pair, but on one of the pairs that I installed it on, the charts showed bull, bear, bear, but none of the rows showed bull, bear, bear or its opposite, bear, bear, bull. On the indicator, only one row showed a bull and two bears, but the bear was in the middle, which “couldn’t” be right. Am I missing something, or is this one of the aspects of the indicator that may not be working right? If I am missing something, please tell me which of the columns represents which time frame and how to tell which row represents which pair; in general, how to read the indicator.

Thank you very much,
Norm

As stated (see quote below), I am not the author of that code nor do I use it! In that particular post, all I did was fix the compile bug (since it was very old code) in order to help out the poster. I have no idea if it functions correctly or what kind of logic bugs it may have.

Thank you, FMIC. I’ll do that.

Hi Captain,

I’ve just begun reading the string of just your posts (click your photo, then click on “458 posts in topic”) from the beginning as well as some other posts of yours here and there. In a certain place, I’m quite sure you wrote to limit R:R to between 1:1 and 1:1.5, no more, no less; yet, in post 18, the R:R is 1:2; in post 40, it’s 1:2.5; in post 42, it’s slightly higher than 1:3. Admittedly, it’s often unclear to me whether you intentionally place a Take Profit on some of your charts, or whether you let the price run and keep raising your TP with a trail stop behind it, or whether you simply trail price with a stop, but without a set TP. Do you set-and-forget your trades, or actively manage them? I’ve pretty much got my stop loss approach down, to a great extent by observing how you set yours; but I’m still trying to get a handle on how to set, or otherwise achieve, good profit levels. I’d be very thankful if you explain how you go about achieving yours.

Thank you Captain,
Norm

Hi all,
Just open the chart on Monday morning (8.28 Gmt+7) found that all duck are lining up at EurGbp;

But, the SMA looks pretty flat on H4,
What do you think Captain?

I’m not the Captain, so forgive me for jumping in here. But, I wanted to point this out —


-- click the image to enlarge it --

Yes I agree, the support looks strong.if I am not wrong that is also the low of donchian channel (55) low