Looking at shorting EURUSD and CADJPY ahead of UK open if price behaves nicely for the next few hours (by that I mean give me a bit more of a pullback).
I read in the Captainās book how letting some trades run for longer could really make a difference to the monthly bottom line. I wonder how do people who do this go about picking which trades to let run, and which to go for set take-profits?
Iāve been trying to work on this, & have really been trying to gauge the strength of the trend, & really just have some kind of basic fundamental view that says this might go on for a while, eg. EURUSD.
Most other currency pairs Iāve been setting take-profits, though now Iām in short at a decent level on EURGBP after the ECB QE announcement Iām thinking of keeping that longer-termā¦
Do any of you mix between short-term take-profits & longer-term open ended trades?
Iām a short term trader mostly and have been working on holding on to trades. I like the 3 ducks because it gives you a great picture of where the trend is currently, which way is headed in the mid term and lets you see the general direction long term.
Like any strategy first you (from the Captain himself) must absolutely take as much time as you need to pick quality over quantity. You have to put the emphasis on protecting your bankroll first while adding to it second. Iāve been addressing this by starting with smaller positions one or two percent, scaling in and out of a trade. This is murder on you, if you have short term tendencies. I just finished a trade on the GBPUSD held the trade since last thrusday, couple of times their I thought I might need oxygen, but in the end it worked out to be quite profitable. My personal opinion (and before anyone even tries, so donāt bother as I will go to my grave believing this.) is that all investment bankers, Central Bankers and Market Makers are at the top of the food chain when it comes to making money in the forex and you canāt trust any of them. If one of them emailed me and said Iām on babypips posting right now, I still wouldnāt believe them, if I was laying in the street dieing of thrust and they offered me a drink, I would turn away and take my chances without them.
Therefore my core belief is the longer youāre in the market, the more chance you lose money through their manipulation. I think I carry this from my past life of poker atc. I think. However I think I might have been a little hasty; quality over quantity yes absolutely, plan every part of your initial trade for sure (entry, stop loss and take profit targets) Where the change comes is in management. By learning to manage your trades based on the facts available to you at the time and your options it may be better to add to a position rather than close, more so if a trade has gone against your initial entry. But hereās the kicker, itās not always better to scale in or out. Sometimes itās better to admit to yourself, sheet (i) I misread the orginial information.
I think it depends on how well you executed your original plan. And like everything else, in forex trading no magic; planning and practice makes perfect. Look at the ducks, 4,1 hours and 5 minutes. So you take your entry based on the 5, once your trade is executed and you manage through the 4 hour, again in my personal opinion youāre headed for disaster. However you see the trade going against you before you get stopped out, or execute the stop, drop to the lower time frames and see maybe thereās an opportunity to enter an opposite trade, or add to your original trade. I can tell you from experience this is not easy and my hats off to you people that are doing this more times right than wrong.
So if I were you, I would look for lots of ideas and practice on a demo using smaller starting positions and practice practice and practice. Just my 2 cents hope it helps
Gp
Is there a āchat roomā where people using this system hang out and watch/trade the market?
Hurrah John, well done. Nowt wrong with using a trailing stop-loss every now and again.
LOL, I nearly spit my coffee out reading this GP, hilarious. Delighted the trade worked out to be profitable for you and great post from you also, thumbs up!
A sell-off for sure since Tue. At long last the ECB pulls the Quantitative Easing trigger ā¦ Tell us if you bagged a winning trade or two this week Duck Hunters by selling Euro pairs.
Have a great weekend,
Andy
Captain Currency
Quite a (healthy) dose of scepticism youāve got there lol
I think it depends on how well you executed your original plan. And like everything else, in forex trading no magic; planning and practice makes perfect. Look at the ducks, 4,1 hours and 5 minutes. So you take your entry based on the 5, once your trade is executed and you manage through the 4 hour, again in my personal opinion youāre headed for disaster.
eek, thatās actually what Iāve been attempting to do with a couple of my EURUSD & EURJPY trades. It seemed to me that to aim for longer-held trades, youād have to move to higher timeframes in some manner to manage them. Iām just not sure how else it could be done - managing on the 5m youād just be whipped around too much wouldnāt you?
Like any strategy first you (from the Captain himself) must absolutely take as much time as you need to pick quality over quantity. You have to put the emphasis on protecting your bankroll first while adding to it second.
Iām trying to be quite specific about choosing which trades to hold on to, theyāre few & far between - quality over quantity as you say.
So if I were you, I would look for lots of ideas and practice on a demo using smaller starting positions and practice practice and practice. Just my 2 cents hope it helps
Gp
Thanks as always
In steady trending price in 5M time frame I use pullback entries instead of breakouts taking into account current market structure and shape of candles near MA.
Like this: Screenshot ā2096564844_ LMAX-LiveUK - [NZDUSD.lmx,M5] 2015-01-24 14.44.32ā
Blue line is MA60 for M5. Rest are some envelopes.
It worked best in this week for me. Maybe you can also try it.
Morin I was looking at your great screenshot and trying to follow and was wondering if you would share with me your stop loss number and your entry number. I would like to compare with mine and see if we get the same outocme or there abouts. First thing I noticed is time frames you executed during London/Ney Work overlap. I place a pending order an hour before London opens. My Entry is the green cross, my stop loss is red and gold is the profit targets.
Fell free to criticize,
Gp
Some time ago, I did something that detached my Market Watch panel and I donāt know what keys I hit, nor can I re-attach my Market Watch panel. Could you please take a few minutes and clue me in?
Thanks!
I believe the efficacy of this approach can be compromised by over analysis of entry position. The system can be used with minimal chart time but the key does lie in identifying the best candidates. Once a good trend is found on any pairs, then it is possible to profit by jumping in pretty much anywhere if care is taken to avoid over extension of the daily range. I have found the 5 minute breakout trigger to be straightforward and easy to assess ahead of time.
It is easy to over analyse charts after the fashion and think that maybe a tweak here and there will improve overall profits. There are plenty of profits to be made if you stick to the simple guidelines - identify a strongly trending candidate on the 4 and 1 hour charts, then place your trigger and wait.
Just drag it over to the side and it should join back up with the navigator.
Youāve hit the nail on the head Bobcon, great post!
Good trading Duck Hunters for the week ahead,
Andy
Captain Currency
bump
Or is this thread the chat-room?
Potential short setup on EURUSD, following todayās pullback from the lows.
- 4hr chart downward with price below the MA
- 1hr price below the MA
- 5min break of short-term trendline and below the 60MA
Also of note is that stoch is coming off the OB area on the 1hr chart, which has been an indication of good moves in recent days of strong downtrend.
Well, haridas100, that didnāt work. In fact, when I double-clicked on my Navigator panel, it to became detached! Do you know of some keystroke or combination of keys that will āre-attachā my two detached panels? Sorry to bother you, and THANKS!
This thread is the āchat roomā.
Why donāt you use google or send him a pm instead of asking for MT4 technical advise in the 3 duck trading system thread?
I agree and will look to short both eurusd and eurjpy
For even more confirmation take a look at these old trend lines still in play.
EURUSD 4H
EURJPY 4h
I think your screenshot is in 1hr? And not 5m.
Just click cross in upper right corner of popup prices to close them. Then to bring normal side prices click this button:
Screenshot ā2096564844_ LMAX-LiveUK - [EURGBP.lmx,H1] 2015-01-27 16.21.03ā