So I take it then (elegy400) that you’re not interested in BAC stock at under $5 either??? LOL!!!
C’mon: SOMEBODY has to ‘prop them up’!!! LOL!!!
No ‘takers’ for my ‘bet’ either???
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
You’ve actually got me interested. I’m putting the mince pies down right now and reaching for the slide rule. Surely BAC at $4.99 is less than break-up value?
Hello.
LOL!!!
Yep. That’s what I’m figuring (and what Buffet KNOWS I believe) (see my previous posts on this thread on this very topic for my reasoning)!!! LOL!!!
Really: I’m just trying to prove (or disprove) ‘The Adam Theory of Markets’. And, well, as noted, I was also looking at the price and thinking ‘but it is so cheap’. That was until I read Wilder’s ‘The Adam Theory of Markets’ (‘nothing is too cheap to sell and nothing is too expensive to buy’ type of thing) (and, alright, giving Mr. Gecko, Buckscoder, his due, telling me that the stock would eventually trade at $0.05)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Well.
I guess this is ‘almost it’ i.e. trading coming to a close until next week. MAN: that’s a LONG ‘stretch’.
But here’s a little ‘present’ for you all (which I hope is going to worth something):
The Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ, are ‘shooting’ for new 20-day highs. These are significant levels. Why am I telling you this??? Because I believe everything is ‘coming together just too nicely’. Adam, these indices ‘shooting’ for new 20-day highs, and the possible (inevitable???) ‘violent’ retracement, which will send EUR/USD ‘down, down, down’. EUR/USD SEEMS, this week anyway, to have begun moving in tandem with these indices again (‘as per normal’) except coming from a much lower base!!!
It’s sort of ‘bitter sweet’ really. I cannot wait to ‘solve’ Adam after the market close tonight. But as I said: it’s a LONG ‘stretch’ until ‘normality’ returns (and then we’ve AGAIN got New Year AGAIN to put a ‘spanner in the works’). It’s VERY frustrating!!! LOL!!!
Take care and have a WONDERFUL time whatever it is that you do. We (I???) don’t want members ‘missing in action’ comes next week or next year because they’ve done something foolish. Believe it or not: NOT EVEN I drink and drive anymore i.e. our ‘coppers’ here don’t put up with that anymore. And really: it’s not worth it. F*CK!!! I sound like and ‘old man’ don’t I!!!
BE WELL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Well: it’s ‘that time of the week’!!!
Attached is ‘solved Adam’ for EUR/USD both for the daily and weekly timeframes for the week ended 23/12/2011. I’ve put in a tiny bit of additional ‘analysis’ (if you want to call it that). All I can say is this: if there is ‘something’ to Adam Theory then I know of at least two ‘no deposit bonus’ brokers that are going be HIGHLY ‘pis*ed off’ given that, as you know, I’m short EUR/USD on four different accounts (two with ‘broker money’, one old account that only had $5 in it but HUGE leverage, and my ‘for real’ account with a ‘real’ and ‘proper’ position which, if these price reflection charts are anywhere NEAR ‘correct’, could very well end up being a nice trade and possibly the only profitable FOREX trade I’ve done!!! LOL!!! Whether or not I’ll ever be able to withdraw the ‘free money’ will be another issue altogether but I’ll ‘cross that bridge’ if or when I get to it)!!! LOL!!!
My interpretation: EUR/USD is going to sort of ‘hang around’ for another week or so and then ‘kaboom’ it’s ‘down we go’!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit (and just for the record):
I’ve been short EUR/USD on my ‘for real’ account since 19/12/2011 at 1.3025. I’m DAMN sure I posted this when I opened the position but I don’t see it on this thread. It COULD be that I posted it on the other thread about Parabolic SAR and +100 pips (or whatever it’s called). Anyway: as I say this is ‘just for the record’ and so that nobody can come back to me and say that I’ve been ‘economical with the truth’ if this trade (and Adam Theory) doesn’t work out. Once the trade has ‘done its thing’ (either way) I’ll post the trade history here.
eurusdadamdailywe23122011.zip (46.9 KB)
eurusdadamweeklywe23122011.zip (41.5 KB)
Gee: I wasn’t expecting it THAT soon!!! But as Wilder noted: Adam is not 100% CORRECT ALL THE TIME!!! LOL!!! I just don’t understand why it’s inconceivable to everyone that the areas of support that I’ve marked in PINK BLOCKS won’t hold and then become resistance???
Yeh yeh!!! I know it’s a bit early to ‘gloat’. Experience has taught me that the hard way. But give me my ‘five minutes of (Adam Theory) fame’??? LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Cheers Dale!
Lets see how it develops. Thanks for the “solved” charts.
My GOD!!! Another post on this thread (aside from mine)??? LOL!!!
Believe me it’s a pleasure. And thanks for posting and thanking me. I was beginning to wonder if anybody was actually even bothered about this thread but, well, I’m the ‘never give up’ until I’ve either ‘wiped out’ or at very least proved that something DOESN’T work!!! LOL!!!
Seeing as I know at least ONE person is interested (or at least LOOKING at my hard work) here’s a little ‘heads up’. I’m thinking that the Silver chart may be a good one to target with this given where it’s now trading and given all the ‘banter’ that I hear on TV, radio, and read on the Internet about Silver.
One thing I’ve figured: as Wilder states at very least Adam DOES INDEED FORCE you to keep trading WITH the markets not against them. That’s helped me tremendously on THIS particular trade. And I’ve also realised that he’s quite right i.e. it will ALWAYS be wrong at tops and bottoms but as he ALSO says: top and bottom prickers (eventually) become cotton pickers!!! LOL!!! Something like that anyway.
But as I’ve noted: this the ONLY trade (short EUR/USD) that I’ve committed money to. That’s my ‘weak disclaimer’ if you like. It’s still just an experiment and even I’m (still) sceptical but that’s just from preconceived ideas about POSSIBLE ‘mumbo jumbo’. But if it this pans out, ‘something’ happens with Bank of America (and I’m seeing more said about BAC on Bloomberg TV on a daily basis so ‘something’ is ‘brewing’, and it gets me (us) long Silver to $50 or beyond, well, then, I’d be comfortable in saying that it does indeed have merit and it NOT ‘mumbo jumbo’!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Well Dale, I’m actually very skeptical about ADAM (flipping the charts to predict the trend???)
Anyway I’m giving it a try on my demo account.
Regards,
Wait…
Did I hear you say flip the charts? upside down?
Sorry I only read the first few chapters of the book, I admit I was bored, it moved too slowly.
Think I want to finish it now.
Dale has used Paint to “solve” the chart (see post #18). This involves flipping the charts horizontally and verticlally, cut and paste…etc… Read #18 and you will know what I mean.
Regards,
BORED??? With WILDER??? LOL!!!
I’m surprised. He ‘flannels’ a lot less than any of the other authors I’ve read!!! LOL!!!
Well what you ACTUALLY do (well this is how I’m doing it anyway but it accomplishes the same as his manual method):
You create (save) two copies of the same chart (using different colors for the bars). Then you take the second chart, flip it horizontally and then flip it vertically and then superimpose the LAST BAR of the flipped chart on the last bar of the first chart. I just draw those red lines so that I know I’m lining up the two charts correctly is all. You have then created a ‘Second Reflection’ chart. I’m unfortunately no PhotoShop expert so I just use good 'ol PC Paintbrush to do the job.
The above being said: EVEN MORE IMPORTANT than Adam Theory is the TEXT of the book and Wilder’s input and advice and trading rules!!! Even if Adam Theory is ‘not your thing’: THOSE rules will ‘make or break’ you I assure you not matter WHAT trading system you’re trading. Of THAT I am 100% sure.
Regards,
Dale.
Thanks pipsaday.
We were ‘overtyping’ each other. Sorry about that.
Regards,
Dale.
Well I guess he took too long to get to the meat of the book…
Also i am absorbing so many other ideas at the moment, I got impatient.
but…sounds interesting… I like it. Symmetry and all the rest.
So your second reflection chart is your projection of where price is going then? Are you using transparencies for the
photocopies, that way you can see both of them at the same time.
It’s cool, Dale.
I’m not sure what you mean by ‘transparencies’??? The book ITSELF comes with a ‘transparency’ but EVERYTHING Wilder did was by hand!!! LOL!!!
No: what I do is save the first and second charts (I just change the bar colors for each). Then I ‘rub out’ any extraneous information, align my red lines, and that’s it. It gets a bit easier as time goes on I must say
But as I said: the other information in the book is (possibly) worth more than Adam Theory to ANY trader. A fine example (to which this book ‘opened my eyes too’): I call myself a trend trader but has that been strictly true??? What I HAVE been doing is watching trends move in one direction or another waiting ‘oh so patiently’ for a reversal. That’s not trend trading now is it!!! It’s just stuff like that that is so well covered in this book. And that’s just one example. One would THINK that this is SOOO obvious. Well maybe I’m dumb and needed it ‘spelled out’ to me i.e. I wasn’t ‘seeing the wood for the trees’ type of thing.
Regards,
Dale.
Those plastic paper thingies that you can see through, like looking through glass.
Clear, not opaque.
sometimes in the old days people would use them with overhead projectors, in the days before power point presentations.
So if you write on the one side, you can see it from the other side.
Believe it or not: I KNOW what a ‘transparency’ is!!! LOL!!! But this is the 21st Century!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
EU weekly chart says first support at 2873 , then 2587
what you think dale this week based on adam theory ?
Hello.
NOW you’re talking TRADING leandar!!! LOL!!!
Well don’t ask me: look at my Adam charts!!! LOL!!!
Let me make this VERY clear:
I wouldn’t know support and / or resistance if it ‘hit me in the face’ but I guess in THIS case it’s probably a ‘no brainer’ because even I can see it clearly!!! LOL!!! That’s a first believe me!!! LOL!!!
I agree with your figures (give or take a few pips but on a trading system or methodology such as this believe me: ‘give or take a few pips’ really is nothing in the bigger picture of things).
Me: I’ll stay short EUR/USD until there is a market reaction against my trade and then I’ll solve Adam and see what it’s telling me (well: I’ll keep solving Adam weekly as I have been doing as well) and only then will I decide what to do. If you’re asking me if I’d use those levels of support as buying opportunities??? Not me. I’m in this trade for the ‘longest possible haul’.
For what it’s worth: the ‘general analyst consensus’ (for what that’s worth) is ‘calling’ EUR/USD at around 1.2500. I think they’re being a bit optimistic. Adam at this time is pointing to a lot lower than that.
But if you’re going to take any interest in this then please read the book i.e. I ain’t explaining the whole concept here!!! LOL!!! And like I said: there’s probably more valuable information in the book than Adam Theory (although I’ll change that stance if EUR/USD gets to parity)!!! LOL!!!
And also remember something: just because Adam Theory ‘predicts’ EUR/USD shorts you don’t just ‘go for it’ and go short. You need to see where Adam ‘predicts’ the next market reaction or pullback to be so that you can see where you’re GOING to move your stop once in the trade. If that ‘projected’ stop is going to be anywhere near your initial stop then you don’t ‘want’ the trade and have to wait.
But thus far (as I say: ‘beginners Adam Theory luck’ or not): this trade was worth WAY more pips. Had I ‘discovered’ Adam Theory a few more weeks prior to when I did then one would have been short at least four or five weeks ago and at no point would the trade ever have moved into a loss position. As a matter of fact I think one may even already have had an opportunity to add to your existing position.
But also bear in mind: this I’m still learning and experimenting with. I certainly wouldn’t commit any REAL (well: I should say BIG) money to something like this YET and I certainly wouldn’t be trading instruments with huge $ value per point (pip) movements yet either. Let’s just ‘take it easy’ and ‘see how it goes’.
I DO, however, believe, ‘in my gut’, that Adam Theory is going to be really good at ‘predicting’ the turn in Gold and Silver and keeping you in those trades for ‘the VERY long haul’. I’ll ‘solve’ those charts over the weekend and see. Just remember also: these trades are not ‘quick money’. They may end up being BIG money over a LONG period of time but I don’t see them as ‘quick money’ so they’re not going to suit everyone for sure. That being said: Wilder says that Adam Theory should work regardless of the timeframe being used. But to solve Adam the way I’m doing it, every hour or so, is just not practical.
Remember also (but this you will LEARN FROM THE BOOK LEANDAR): you WILL miss a significant portion of any initial change in direction of the trend so be aware of that.
As I noted: I’m not going to ‘re-write the book’ here. But I’m only to pleased to discuss my findings and get the input of others of course.
Regards,
Dale.