This raises the Bitcoin question: can a currency not backed by a government or central bank be safe for investors, being that its value is determined by its users (rather than a central bank)?
Thanks for sharing this article with us emeraldorc. The article is making such a good point and there is lot to be learned from it.
[B]You find many strange and useless trading theories in a forum …
Elliott wave is one of them.
Is there anything to prevent, it is to spend time on elliot wave theory …
WAST OF TIME
[/B]
Robert Pretcher man who introduced and made Elliot wave theory popular again …
Study his track record …
For those who aren’t familiar with Robert Prechter, consider yourself very fortunate, as his track record is arguably the worst of all of the media’s clowns.
Looking at his methods partly explains why his results have been so abysmal. Prechter’s Elliot Wave hocus pocus appears to resemble witch craft more than reason.
For instance, Prechter advised his subscribers to short the U.S. stock market using 200% leverage in November 2009. Since then the market has advanced by some 30%. And because Prechter has remained bearish since then, assuming you had listened to his brilliant advice, you’d be down by 60% not counting margin interest expenses.
But that’s not all. Prechter has insisted that the Dow is headed to below 1000. In fact, he has been saying this for several years. Stop and think for a moment if you had listened to him.
Let’s take a look at some of the predictions Prechter came up with after he gazing into his broken crystal ball.
(1) On June 9, 2003, Prechter stated…“…the bear market is very young. I think 18 months from now, the financial and economic landscape will be very different from what they are today. The optimists will be gone.”
(2) On June 30, 2003, Prechter stated… The Dow is currently headed down. Ultimate target: “at least below 4,000.” At the time the Dow was over 9000. Over the next four years, the Dow gained more than 5200 for gains of nearly 60%; that is if you used Prechter as a contrarian indicator.
(3) On May 11, 2004, Prechter continued with his doom and gloom warnings based on his wave hocus pocus…a “panic should set in” later this month.”
(4) On October 13, 2004, Prechter stated…“One thing I’ve repeated consistently is that the great bear market will take the DJIA at least below 1,000 and likely to below 400. Precedents for this severe a decline are the English stock prices in 1720-1722 and American stock prices in 1929-1932.”
(5) Obviously frustrated with his extremist approach, apparently Prechter decided to go with the odds, knowing that most market collapses have occurred in the month of October. On October 20, 2005, he stated…“Expect the market to develop into a crash, with panic increasing into Halloween and then culminating within hours. From that low, the market should stage a dramatic three-day bounce for wave four and then resume declining to lower lows for wave five. This decline should leave 10,000 behind for good. Investors stay in cash; speculators stay short.”
Wow, this guy sounds like a complete nut. Let me explain. There is no one in the world who can predict exact details of any sell-off, such as what Prechter has attempted with his use of words like “within hours,” and “three-day bounce.” This is truly fortune-telling at its worst.
(6) On November 25, 2009, Prechter advised his sheep to short the market using 200% leverage. This is completely irresponsible by the most lax standards of investment prudence.
(7) On January 21, 2010, Prechter states…“2010 is the year when the bear market in stocks returns in full force. …a meaningful close below [Dow] 10,489 should see a similar collapse to new bear market lows.”
(8) Then on June 17, 2010, Prechter states…“The topping process is over for the countertrend rally that started in the first quarter of 2009. The next leg lower that commenced in April should now deliver a decline that will ultimately be bigger than the 2007-2009 sell-off.”
So what happened? The same that always seems to happen when Prechter predicts a market decline; the market soared!
(9) On July 15, 2010, Prechter states… “The selling pressure will abate at times, but by the end of 2010, stock prices should be much lower. …Experienced traders should be short the S&P 500 Index…”
Now let’s have a look at the performance of the market after Prechter’s advice. After studying this chart, it should be clear that Prechter is one of the worst market forecasters in history.
As you can see, Prechter is like the other perma-bears, who continue to cry wolf for many years as their naïve followers miss out on tremendous gains.
Inevitably, the market runs into problems as it has in the past. At that time, Prechter is right; well kind of.
You see, when the Dow was making its lows at around 6441 in March 2009, Prechter was like Schiff, Roubini, Faber and the other perma-bear clowns who insisted it would fall much lower. They advised their naïve sheep to stay out of the market while I advised investors to begin buying at the bottom.
These guys only know one direction and it’s always down, give or take a few “bear traps.” In fact, these guys have been calling the market’s 85% rise a bear trap for over a year now.
Without a doubt, I can guarantee you these extremists will all be preaching doom until the day they die. After all, a good salesman sticks to his pitch. He practices it over and over like a machine. That is precisely what these guys do.
So with so many “great” predictions, let’s see what Prechter has to say now.
I present to you the dog-and-pony act known as Tech Ticker. While you’re watching, notice how at certain points, Task and Blodget seem to be laughing at Prechter under their breath. You see, these guys realize how awful Prechter’s track record is. But they are simply riding the media gravy train.
Note Prechter’s witch craft-like rationale.
Did he discuss valuation?
Did he discuss relative improvements in economic data?
Did he discuss any specific forecasts?
Did he discuss any critical support levels?
Of course not! Prechter’s forecasts resemble the accuracy of a blindfolded man throwing darts.
Apparently, many people are beginning to view Prechter based on his track record. This might explain why he has ramped up his advertising efforts over the past year.
Little do his subscribers know that the majority of the huge fees they are paying for his misguided forecasts are going to ads.
Of course, I can imagine that his subscribers have much bigger concerns, like the losses to their portfolio.
I encourage you to tell Tech Ticker what you think of Prechter and the rest of the clowns they air, all with the intent to screw those who are naive enough to line up for this trash.
…
[B]Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method’s loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[/B]
Thank you for your input on Pretcher. I am less concerned about him. Elliott Wave is used by many traders in all markets. Elliott himself still remains the authority in the matter and the thread referred to Elliott wave. Technical analysis is still a way of trading.
Hope you find other posts informative. On the other hand you can explore the work of Ramki an institutional trader who spent several years with Chase Manhattan and advises the treasury on currency matters. He does not sell indicators 
He is also a pioneer of EWP and wrote 1 book on actually trading with it but his material is on his blog too.
Yes pip. I had this discussion with my friend and colleague. I wrote it off based on quality and we still don’t know how much is in circulation. The SDR is still the prime candidate to replace the USD.
It is unlikely we return back to a gold standard. Can’t imagine the US after the exported inflation returns home. That said my guess is China is backing the Yuan heavily on gold to limit its risk as it is exposed to both US debt and currency. Note also the Yuan has the most weight in the SDR basket.
Could we see the Yuan being the standard in the guise of the SDR?
Supposed I have a view on Implied vol increasing or decreasing, and I want to take this bet.
Our thread on volume.
I still don’t understand why would anyone invest in something that have no intrinsic value. It’s just a huge ponzi scheme, and the last ones who’ll be holding it eventually will get burned.
I thought about this the other night. If hypothetically the dollar was called out for what it really is, especially in regards to SDR or YUAN, how many lots would I need to short the usd/yuan to make a profit? Since my account is in USD. So my account would soar, but it would soar with a currency that’s worth less every time I make a profit from shorting it. Like if george soros crashed his own countries currency, would he have made any money?
I’ve also had serious thoughts of moving to Toronto or London for similar reasons…but I love this country. Dual citizenship would be nice!
Personally I think it will end the currency markets in the retail arena with a global currency it will mean no more free floating currencies.
The alternative will be currency speculation returned to large institutions. Honestly the future is uncertain. What is certain is the USD will collapse eventually.
I thing everything is going wrong because people don’t nou what they do they think just because press the buy or sell button the miracle will hapend im newbie but criticaser of myself thanc you
fourcandles seems to be doing well…
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/55216-3-little-pigs-trading-system-62.html