Thinking about USD/JPY

Well this is true of course:

One thing I learned about currency that isn’t true about stocks, etc. A currency will never go to zero.

BUT: that fact can be used to your advantage on stocks. An example: Citigroup closed at $4.17 yesterday. The downside is therefore limited to 417 points. Let’s not forget though: Citi’s price has twice in the past few years exceed $55.00. How long, if ever, it will take to get back to those levels is anyone’s guess but it is possible of course (simply because anything is possible except that in this example the magnitude of the downside is a given an calculable). But no: it’s not a way to trade though i.e. you would need a $20 850 account just to be able to take a long position of 100 shares which would give you $1 per point movement assuming 2% risk on the trade. That said though: the risk / reward ratio on a trade like this COULD be ‘sweet’ if you’re TRADEVESTING (which is short for ‘have patience’)!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

That was quick!!! First target hit. Stop moved to BE. From now: it’s a ‘free ride’ IF or UNTIL RSI(14) crosses over 70 and then crosses back to below 70 (in which case you’d TP and SAR of course).

I’m not going to continue posting about this trade i.e. it’s easy enough to follow from here.

Regards,

Dale.

I am purely guessing that it won’t go any lower

That seems to sum it up for me… :slight_smile:

Just to clarify for the viewers at home… Japanese intervention means basicaly selling Yen or using Yen to buy foreign assets (mainly USD but could be others) they can do this because they obviously have a lot of Yen.

They could do this to try and affect a weakening of their money which is seen as one solution to their crippling deflation problem… Mr Bernanke too is afraid of the big bad deflation bear.

Their intervention will be targetted to try and [U]reverse[/U] the trend (which is down). Listen for BoJ news on Thursday when they hold a press conference.

Another possibility is that because price is at an historic 15 year low it will almost inevitably bounce off the previous swing low level.

To help the Yen weaken and reverse they also need the USD to start gaining strength. Next week will hold a very important FOMC statement announcement that will undoubtably effect November viewpoints around the globe.

Currently the pair coming back to 82.00 a previous strong support turned resistance zone.