USDJPY holding above 119.90/85 is positive for today with the first obstacle at 120.35/39 of course. Be ready to buy a break above here however to target very strong resistance at 120.75/120.85 for a selling opportunity with stops at 121.10. A break higher however could reach as far as 121.80/90 for the next selling opportunity.
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. While momentum is still strong, the overbought condition as seen in monthly chart might start to limit upside momentum above 124.13 resistance. Hence, even though the trend is far from ending, we’ll start to be cautious on sign of medium term topping.
The indicators of the daily chart remain still below the line for now as well as those of the weekly one suggesting further downside pressure. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead showing a mixed picture this morning with however a small upside potential with the 200 hours line at 120,37 the attraction. We stay on the sideline while waiting for stronger signals.
Here we find the 2012-2015 115.88 uptrend. Below here lies the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low – this is located at 113.98. We look for this to hold the downside and provoke recovery.
USD/JPY is still staying in range of 118.58/121.62 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 125.85 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial support was seen at 38.2% retracement of 101.08 to 125.85 at 116.38. But the correction shouldn’t be completed yet.
Above here and then 121.33 is needed to see a base for further strength towards late August high, 55-day average and 61.8% retracement of the August collapse at 121.76/80 which we look to cap.
USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a narrow range between 118.58 and 121.62. Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 125.00 area. Key support is at 116.13, only a break below this level could bring price to 110.00 area.
The USD/JPY pair initially fell significantly during the course of the session on Thursday, but as you can see bounced rather significantly off of the 118 handle. With that being the case, the market has formed a hammer and it now looks as if we can break above the top of that hammer, the market will then reach towards the 121 handle given enough time as we continue to consolidate in the same general vicinity that we have been consolidating in for several months. With that being the case, we think that there is a potential buying opportunity above the top of the range for the day, but you have to keep in mind that there will be a significant amount of volatility
We believe that the actual “floor” in this market is somewhere close to the 118.50 level. The one thing that we can count on in this particular pair is going to be volatility though.
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Friday, as we continue to find quite a bit of volatility in this market. The 122.50 level offered enough support to keep the market afloat, and we think that eventually the buyers will come back into this marketplace in take control. We are buyers on supportive candles below, and a break above the top of the range for the session on Friday. We have no interest in selling this market, as the interest-rate differential should continue to favor the US dollar.
Current rally would target 125.27/85 resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm up trend resumption and will target 130 handle. Nonetheless, break of 122.21 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 55 days EMA (now at 121.48).
The USD/JPY pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we tested the 123 handle. We did bounce a little bit towards the end of the session though, so having said that we feel it’s only matter of time before the buyers get involved. We are waiting to see supportive candles in order to start going long yet again, because quite frankly this pair should reach towards the 125 handle. The Federal Reserve is much more likely to raise interest rates in the near term them the Bank of Japan is, and as a result we favor the US dollar overall.
USDJPY is currently trading with a bearish bias. The pair bounced off from122.24, and went perfectly short as previously forecasted but could not hit our target of 120.97. We still expect further movements downwards towards this support level or even below. That said, as long as EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain Bullish, we are short in USD/JPY, the latter is strongly negatively correlated to the other pairs and are thus expected to move in a different price pattern. When you look to sell in USD/JPY, you should look to buy in Euro and Pound pairs.
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 122.21 minor resistance intact, further fall is still mildly in favor. Below 120.33 will target 116.13/118.05 support zone.
The break of 121.37 minor support argues that the rebound from 120.33 has completed at 123.56, ahead of 123.74 resistance. Consolidation from 123.74 is still in progress with another falling leg and deeper fall could be seen to 120.33.
USDJPY is in short term downtrend from 123.75. Deeper decline is still possible next week, and the target would be at 118.00 area. Resistance is at 123.75, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 130.00.
The USD/JPY pair fell significantly during the day at first, but turned back around on Tuesday to form a relatively positive candle. If we can break above the recent highs just below the 119 level, we feel that this market will continue to go much higher and perhaps try to reach towards the 120.50 level. We’ll have any interest in selling at this point in time though, because quite frankly there is a lot of support just below so therefore we feel this is a “buy only” market at this point in time.
The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session here on Wednesday, but found the area near 115 to be far too resistive. We ended up continuing the downtrend, and have now broken well below the 114 level. This market looks like it’s free to go down to the 110 level, and as a result we do continue to sell this pair as the financial markets around the world continue to struggle with risk aversion. We have no interest in buying at this point in time, and believe that it might be a while before we can.
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 125.85 should now target long term fibonacci level at 106.63. On the upside, above 114.20 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.