If you automate then short-term may be an option but for hand-trader wannabes like me, with limited time, it is all about the swings or trend…waiting to catch (some/most of) the larger moves with the higher profit probability.
I like that you tried automating set-ups based on analysts’ pivots/levels and it provided very little edge, because at least you sought to put that information to the test yourself.
I think I agree with you on the swings and trend. I am trying to introduce that into the mix of trading that I do. Trend following is potentially very profitable whilst also being relatively easy to do, but the problem as always is gauging the reliability of the setup at any given time.
Most of the time as u know the setups break formation and the trend or swing doesn’t materialise. I found short term trend trading political news to be the best so far for reliability - US Elections, Italian Referendum etc…
Volumes as well increase reliability as u know so i prefer to use a VWAP rather than SMA. I had a quick look at the auto correlations for the change in VWAP compared to SMA and it was 20 times higher SMA came in at under 4% in most cases - that was SMA 14 on the H1 candle.
The auto correlations for SMA 50 or above is usually about 80% or more, but then what does that really ell you. It would make sense that an SMA 50, changing from one period to another would correlate better than SMA 14 as the price that is introduced is just 1/50 of the input for the calculation, so is it really a better predictor.
A surprising number of successful, professional traders (both institutional and retail, and however much you might disagree with then, they’re not fools) would disagree with this comment.
For myself, I happen to agree with you, so I’m not trying to suggest that you’re mistaken, just that you might want to be aware that you’re giving opinion, there (yours and mine!) and by no means making an objectively proven statement.
Me too.
But I’d suggest that you do make sure, if using volume, that you’re using it to trade something for which meaningful volume figures are available. Spot forex isn’t one of those things. Don’t imagine that your own broker’s “volume” has anything to do with the interbank market: that really would be a mistake. Futures are another matter, obviously.
I don’t know. I don’t ever try to predict. I gave that up about 5 years in to my trading career. That helped me.
Do u use Market depth to find your support and resistance levels
Interesting. You are running a fund now? What is it that you do trading wise.
No, although Fxcm offer that on certain pairs, but it is hard to know which participants it tracks (retail?).
I use futures volume for general ideas around trend but only in an interpretative way, not quantifying it.
This volume thread had a lot of good stuff: did yoh have a look at it?
Also, talking about the forum futures.io, I spotted this thread:
For the trial trades I am looking at NZDUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD. Trend trading break outs.
Thanks that looks very useful. I will have a look at it. Bookmarked.
Gosh, the Kiwi kept me busy for many months…I have no clue where it is at…
This pair was the stuff of legends in early/mid-2015:
NZDUSD has been in a wonderful uptrend on the H4 for some time, which now seems to be reversing, I got in short at just the right time it seems, where the change in the moving average 50 bars was at a turning point and the price broke our of the 3 sigma.
I tried to hedge the downside till March 14. So far so good, but we will have to see. Do you breakout trade? I am looking for new entries on this method. So far I have:
Indicator with the change in the MA 50 - when the change crosses zero so there is a trend direction change or if you’re unlucky just an inflection point.
Short term confirmation with the Stochastic at 15,8,8.
Breakout from sigma 3 on the price action
I’m going to spend the next couple of months putting together better signals for the breakout. a lot of testing to do. I am looking for ways to predict the magnitude of the move as compared the to 14 bar ATR in between trending periods.
I am sure there most be a property to determine that as ATR usually correlates pretty well and this is the ATR effectively with the only difference being that the time intervals are not fixed to single bar units.
There is precision, depth, complexity and statistical thinking in your approach, but it is all a bit of an unknown to me (sigma, delta, options, etc.) so I really have nothing more to contribute here, and
I do not trade breakouts either.
However, I will check into this thread from time to time, and I look forward to seeing what you have posted.
Until then
Best of luck and…
Happy Trading!
I’m reitred.
I got into institutional trading in the late 1980’s (when it was much easier than it is now!).
I made the mistake of retiring early with almost no hobbies (and very little family) and am bored. I trade forex futures (and some spot forex, still) from home, so I’m a “retail trader” like most here.
So are your typing skills. 
Interesting. What trading strategy do you use I mean.
You resurfaced. I didn’t hear back from you on the question that I posed.
No answer?
Why don’t we agree in that case that you continue to stay off my threads or respond to anything else that I post, and I will do the same. I have had a quick look at your posting history and I see that you are incorrigible with this stuff.
Wow that was very nice thank you. We will have to see if this plays out well or not i’ll keep you posted.
Sigma 3 = 3 Standard Deviations from the SMA. I am using Bollinger Bands for that so if the trend curve changes direction (SMA[1] - SMA[2] the change in the SMA crosses zero) and then the price breaks out of the Bollinger band @ 3 standard deviations soon after.
I’ll try to do that, when I remember.
I want to add something else, though.
I apologise to you for the earlier, now-removed post I made. Having discussed it now in some detail both with Pipstradamus (who was very helpful) and Lukas (likewise) I now realise that my post came across as very critical and rude, and I’m sorry about that, Ropunzel.
Believe it or not, that honestly wasn’t my intention in writing it.
I think my intention when I originally posted it was a combination of “wanting to try to help to re-orientate your thinking” (perhaps not my business at all to try to do that!) and exasperation at my own inability to explain to you why I think you’re barking up the wrong tree with this.
No offence was intended. I accept from your reaction that some was taken, and that was my fault, not yours.
It frustrates me, after my 30 years in the markets in various different capacities, to see someone so highly intelligent and highly educated as you with general perspectives around trading (as far as I understand yours, from what you’ve posted here) which in my unsolicited and doubtless most unwelcome opinion aren’t particularly helpful ones.
Nevertheless, I shouldn’t have interfered, maybe shouldn’t have tried to say so at all, and certainly shouldn’t have done so in a way that (I now see) came across so rudely.
Good wishes and good luck to you, Ropunzel, and I’ll avoid your threads (as I long as I remember to, which I think I probably can), if you want.
Sorry!
Charles