Tkan you very much!
Have a nice day!
Eur-Aud, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Aud: the daily chart of this pair shows a short-term upward movement that can be considered as an “expected” ritest of the important resistance level 1,50. This level is called “neckline” of the bearish Head & Shoulder pattern that, in previous weeks, generated the strong bearish move to the 1,4650 area. Generally the price uses to realize a corrective move to retest the resistance level (the floor of the HCH), a movement that Eur-Aud did not draw immediately after the break out but only yesterday, confirming the downward trend in the H4 time frame and also in the weekly time frame (reaction below the moving average and the bearish pin currently drawing). So we might look for a short trading signal to enter the downtrend with a target, considering the weekly scenario, that could also be placed in area 1,43.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar today showed us some important data from Japan like the industrial production (stable but below expectations), the manufacturing output (downward) and, in particular, the meeting of the Bank of Japan in which his quantitative easing program (rates and monetary base) has been confirmed. We also received from Germany the retail sales (collapsed in March) and the labor market data (steady unemployment but lower employment); from the euro area the inflation rose to 1% as expected. In the second part of the day we will receive the gross domestic product of Canada and the United States and, also from North America, the retail sales, the PMI Chicago, the individual consumption and the long-awaited policy meeting of the Federal Reserve with Janet Yellen’s decision about the rates and the further cuts in the asset purchase program.
Today we had a mixed close for the Asian markets (badly Hong Kong and slightly positive Tokyo) and a negative opening for the European indices waiting for Wall Street’s reaction to the decisions of the Fed.
Among the main market movers of tomorrow we will receive many manufacturing data (Australia, China, United Kingdom and United States) and the US jobless claims.
Maurizio Orsini
The month of April ended with an upward move for the stock market and in particular for the U.S. indices that approached again their historic top levels; we will see in the next weeks if the so called “sell in May and go away” will be respected generating a sale phase (unlike the month of May 2013).
This week’s economic calendar showed us two monetary policy meetings with the confirmation of the current guidance both for the Bank of Japan (interest rates and monetary base unchanged) as for the Federal Reserve (confirming the rates at 0.25% and the cut of $ 10 billion to the bond buying program).
Always from the United States, still waiting for the important Non Farm Payrolls data, we received a very negative gross domestic product (surprisingly falling to 0.1%) that generated a strong US dollar sell-off; also the British GDP was negative.
Next week, among the other important macroeconomic data, we will have three monetary policy meetings in Australia, United Kingdom and the euro area.
I leave you with my usual weekly video and the analysis of the best trading opportunities for the next market opening.
[video=youtube_share;nXLPpAmZFlk]http://youtu.be/nXLPpAmZFlk[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
USOil, daily Price Action chart
USOil: the medium term and the weekly chart are not the best in terms of clarity and direction, however the short term appears to offer a little more clear situation. The price, after reaching the maximum of the last eight months in zone $105, began a downward trend that let the WTI breaking the moving average 21 and the support levels $101.50 and $100.30. The USOil began what, at the present time, appears to be a technical movement of correction (drawing a flag pattern) approaching the last level mentioned above where we can search a short trading signal. The goal is to enter a possible continuation of this short-term downward trend with target in the $97.30 support area, which is also the target of the technical projection of the correction flag.
Economic Calendar
The month of May begins with a couple of negative news: from China (manufacturing output below expectations) and Australia (PMI Service slightly down). In the euro zone the investor confidence dropped below expectations, while from the U.S.A. we will have the release of the PMI Service.
Today we had a negative close for the Asian markets, especially Hong Kong, and a weak opening for the European indices with the London Stock Exchange closed for holiday.
Tomorrow’s economic calendar will show, between the most important market movers, the monetary policy meeting in Australia with the probable confirmation of the current interest rates level (2.50%). We will also receive different data on PMI Service (euro zone, Germany, France, United Kingdom); the retail sales in the euro area; the trade balance in Australia, Canada and the United States.
Maurizio Orsini
Nice bearish flag. I’ll be looking to get in short at the breakdown.
Good support at the 97.30 for a possible long entry. For now a short could work.
Hi, Maurizio
I really like the weekly video you post here, I’m going to follow it every week. Thank you.
Usd-Yen, daily Price Action chart
Usd-Yen: the yen appreciation and the depreciation of the dollar in the last period has generated a bearish short term movement within a clear medium-term laterality between 102.70 and 101.20 levels. This last area of support, repeatedly tested in the last six months, represents a very interesting key level to look for a long trading signal to resume an upward move toward the top of the range. An eventual return of the dollar purchase could also be confirmed, for correlation, by the approach of other instruments (U.S. Dollar Index, Usd-Cad, Usd-Chf) to the respective support levels. However it is very important to wait for a clear price action set up, in area 101, before evaluating a bullish position, in order to avoid a bearish break-out of Usd-Yen, with a consequent change of the strategic scenario.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar today has presented data on the labor market in New Zealand (steady unemployment and slight decrease of the employment) and Switzerland (unemployment down as expected); the Minute of the Bank of Japan; the retail sales in Australia (worse than expected) and, in a few hours, a Janet Yellen’s speech to the Join Economic Committee.
The Asian markets closed downward with a very negative performance for Tokyo (-2,96%). Also the European indices opened to the downside confirming the bearish trend of the last sessions.
Tomorrow it will be a very important session because, in addition to the labor market data in Australia and the trade balance of China, we will have the last two monetary policy meetings of this week in the UK and the euro area with the forecast of the analysts for a confirmation of the current rates. From the United States we will receive the usual data on jobless claims.
Maurizio Orsini
Let’s see if after Fed’s Yellen Speech today at 15:00 GMT+1 will the support hold?
Also this week we received the confirmation on the current monetary policy in the three meetings held in Australia, UK and Euro zone. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rates unchanged at 2.50% as well as the ECB (0.25%) and the Bank of England (0.50%). In England Mark Carney also confirmed the monthly asset purchase plan of £375 billion while Mario Draghi, despite the “rumors” for further rate cuts, has confirmed the ECB’s forward guidance being available to potential new accommodative measures, maybe beginning next month.
From Oceania we had contrasting labor market data: negative in New Zealand (a falling employment and a steady unemployment but higher than expected) and very positive in Australia (unemployment rate below the forecast and a strong increase in new jobs).
The stock markets are closing a week of special volatility and sudden changes in movements that confirm a period of high variability, uncertainty with no clear direction, including the Forex market.
Next week we will receive, among the most important market movers, the inflation in the euro zone, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the important data on the English labor market.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Very informative thread.Waiting for the next.
Eur-Aud, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Aud: I have already analyzed a few days ago this interesting pair that is in a clear phase of appreciation of the Australian dollar and a weakness of the euro that, after the ECB meeting and the possible quantitative easing, could accentuate its decline. From a technical point of view, it seems now confirmed the bearish technical analysis pattern of “Head and Shoulders” which led to the violation of the support area (neckline) 1,5020. The typical correction move to retest this key level has took place more than one month after the break-out demonstrating the strength of the “neckline” and then the validity of the H&S. This bearish scenario (which we also traded short a couple of times!) could have as technical target the downward projection of the distance between the top price of the “Head” and the neckline, starting from the break-out point, ie in the area 1,.42. In a medium-term outlook, considering the trading signal on the weekly time frame, we might consider a new entry opportunity taking advantage of a possible temporary price correction in area 1.48.
Economic Calendar
The beginning of this week has been relatively quiet in our economic calendar with some data of medium relevance from Japan, the economic confidence in Australia (upward) and the retail sales in Switzerland which rose more than expected.
Asian stocks today closed mixed with a great performance for Hong Kong and a good one for Shanghai, otherwise we had a negative close to Tokyo. The European indices opened contrasted.
Tomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar will present the retail sales and industrial production in China; the German ZEW index on economic sentiment; the retail sales in the U.S.A.
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Yen, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Yen: the depreciation of the euro seems to have given a clearer direction to this pair which is approaching to a very important support zone. The medium term, with a completely flat moving average, shows a laterality move not easy to trade (in a daily outlook of course!). However, after the last ECB meeting, the euro started a short term downward trend that broke the 2-month support 140,30 and the same EMA21. At the present time, after the false break-out of yesterday’s inside candle inside, Eur-Yen is drawing a bearish candle that could lead the pair down to 139 area. In my opinion, it would be very important to wait for the eventual arrival on the support just mentioned because, always in a daily point of view, a short entry now would not be profitable in terms of risk/reward ratio and moreover, with the break-out of the moving average 21 also in the weekly time frame, we might consider with a higher “security” a correct strategy in case of new short trading signals in that key level or, on the contrary, a reversal pattern.
Economic Calendar
The macroeconomic calendar today shows an important session for the United Kingdom with the publication of the labor market data and the inflation. Still waiting for the CPI, the employment rose in march and the unemployment fell as expected. We also received the inflation in Germany (downward as expected) and the industrial production in the euro area which surprisingly fell below the forecast.
European indices opened around the parity (London index in 30-year top!), while Asian markets closed positive waiting for Wall Street’s confirmation of yesterday’s new highs.
Among the main economic data of tomorrow we will receive the gross domestic product of Japan, Germany and the euro area; the inflation in the United States and Europe, and always from the U.S., the jobless claims, the industrial and manufacturing production.
Maurizio Orsini
This week we saw a lot of medium importance data of and no monetary policy meeting.
We had very good data on the UK’s labor market which, however, failed to prevent the depreciation of the pound after the words of the Bank of England’s chairman, Mark Carney, referring to the slow economic growth.
The euro is still weak due to the negative macroeconomic data (GDP, industrial production and inflation to the downside) and to the scenario of new quantitative easing measures by ECB.
In today’s video we can see some trading opportunities for the next market opening.
[video=youtube_share;a3EomPy7NKo]http://youtu.be/a3EomPy7NKo[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Gbp-Yen, daily Price Action chart
Gbp-Yen: almost all pairs with the Yen emphasize an appreciation view of the Japanese currency, especially in the short term. The weekly charts, in fact, are quite contrasted considering some pairs with a price below the moving average (Eur-Yen, Chf-Yen and Usd-Yen) and others that, in the medium term, continue with a more bullish scenario, between them we have Gbp-Yen. This currency pair, last week, broke-out the EMA21 as the key level 171,50 and the downward break of today’s low (and the double inside candle currently drawing) could push the price down to 169,50 support zone. This level might be the target of a short trade but also an interesting zone to look for a long trading signal (in a weekly point of view) considering that right in this time frame the moving average is getting closer as a dynamic support.
Economic Calendar
This day is characterized by a total absence of relevant economic data so we can focus more on the stock markets. Asian stocks closed negative (-0.70% for Tokyo) and also the European opening has been negative and it’s continuing downward (especially Milan).
Tomorrow’ economic calendar will show the Minute of the central bank of Australia, the industrial production in Germany and the UK inflation of April.
Maurizio Orsini
Aud -Yen, daily Price Action chart
Aud-Yen: within the stock and currency scenario characterized by phases of variability, uncertainty and lack of directionality, this pair probably represents two currencies, over all, able to express a clear position in the market: Australian sold and Yen bought! After two months of laterality, Aud-Yen broke down both the moving average and the important support area 94,30 confirming the weakness of the dollar and especially the strength of the yen, due to a reduction of the Japanese monetary policy’s effects. Even in weekly time frame we have, at the present time, the violation of the EMA21; a technical correction to the resistance area 94/94,30 could give us the possibility to find a short trading signal to enter a move that might reach the support area 91.
Economic Calendar
Today the economic calendar showed us the monetary policy meeting in Japan, with the confirmation of the current guidelines (interest rates and monetary base unchanged) and the inflation target of 2%. From the UK we received important news today in relation to the retail sales (rising) and the Minute (for some Board’s member the time to raise the rates is getting closer!). In the second part of the session we will also receive the consumer confidence in the euro area and, especially, the release of the FOMC’s Minute.
Today we had a bearish close for the Nikkei index, affected by yesterday’s negative performance of Wall Street, as well as a very weak opening in Europe.
Tomorrow we will receive several manufacturing data (from China, Germany, the euro zone and the United States); the consumer confidence in New Zealand; the British gross domestic product; the Canadian retail sales; the Philadelphia Fed index and the U.S jobless claims.
Maurizio Orsini
The monetary policy meeting held last Wednesday in Japan has confirmed the current guidance of the central bank keeping the monetary base and the interest rates unchanged.
From the United Kingdom and the United States we had the release of the last rate decision’s Minutes with an important indication by the Bank of England: for some members the time for a rate hike is getting closer and this could increase the upward movement of the British pound.
Next week we will receive some data on gross domestic product (Switzerland, United States and Canada) and the important data on the Japanese inflation.
Let’s analyze in my usual weekly video the best trading opportunities, as always, considering the price only and without the use of additional tools.
[video=youtube_share;gV67WyNdYUY]http://youtu.be/gV67WyNdYUY[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
S&P500, daily Price Action chart
S&P500: we can say with certainty that in this year 2014 the month of May is not confirming the so called “sell in May and go away”, on the contrary it’s emphasizing an evident period of risk-on, despite the international tensions and elections of the recent days. In Europe (Dax30, UK100 and Eurostoxx50) and the U.S.A the stock indices are quoting at historic high levels and continue to have a bullish outlook. In the specific case of the S&P500 this week we had the break-out of the key area 1900 points, confirmed by yesterday’s candle and today’s intraday high near 1915 points. All time frames are above the moving average and with a weekly, and especially monthly, scenario very bullish. Considering what the price is showing we have to look for bullish set ups and a good strategy might be to wait for a technical correction in the former resistance 1900 with a long trading signal to buy at a better price and, at the same time, reducing the risk of false daily break-outs.
Maurizio Orsini
The last week of this month confirms that, as happened last year, also this May 2014 will be remembered as a month in which the classic saying “sell in May and go away” has not been confirmed: the stock markets have continued their trends upward, in some cases achieving new levels of historical tops (S&P, Dax).
The macro-economic calendar this week has been relatively quiet, in contrast to what we are going to have at the beginning of June with four monetary policy meetings (Australia, Canada, UK and euro area) and the US Non Farm Payrolls. Of course the market’s focus will concentrate on the ECB likely to adopt new accommodative measures (rate cut or new LTRO?) to stop the rise of the euro and the risk of deflation.
I leave you the usual weekly video to analyze some interesting trading opportunities for the next week.
[video=youtube_share;WCNXLWzVL1A]http://youtu.be/WCNXLWzVL1A[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Usd, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Usd: since a couple of weeks, the main pair of the forex market is within a sideways range of more or less 70 pips between the upper level 1,3650 and the lower one 1,3580. In the daily chart the price is in a clear short-term down move and the weekly time frame (with the moving average above the price) is showing a more bearish than bullish scenario. In order to enter a possible continuation of this down trend we can consider a couple of interesting strategies: the first one is to wait for a new strong test of 1,3650 resistance area with a short trading signal (selling at a better price and with the EMA21 arriving as a dynamic resistance); the second strategy would be to sell only at the break-out of the short term range low (1,3580) as a more prudent solution. In both cases the first target price would be the next support 1,3470.
From a macroeconomic point of view we are going to have two days of high volatility for the Eur-Usd, with the ECB meeting tomorrow and the Non Farm Payrolls of next Friday, and this might generate a new directionality.
Maurizio Orsini