The Pairs To Range Trade This Week - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and AUD/NZD

EUR/USD
AUD/USD
AUD/NZD

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EUR/USD

Event Risk Euro Zone and US
Trading Tip – After coming under a significant selloff recently, EURUSD has now come upon a level that was once a reliable range top. However, in this heightened volatility environment, it is hard to tell weather a consolidation/range formation will hold up for another test of the 1.3060 level – especially with big data due later in the weak. Short-term risk takers may take trades ahead of the Thursday cutoff with the ECB meeting for a retracement; but the post NFP price action will likely define the new long-term trend.
Euro Zone – There are a few noteworthy indicators on the European community docket. Starting Tuesday, the data hits the wires pretty consistently between Zone and German reports starting with retail sales. Sales across the the Euro-Zone are expected to slow for January, but the surprise or impact this number will have on the market will be limited since the member nation’s have long released their own data. Furthermore, any data that does not mark an astonishing number in regards to expectations will be largely overlooked as traders look to position themselves before the ECB rate decision. A hike is ‘baked in’ so to speak after Trichet’s revival of “strong vigilance at the last public address. On the other hand, questionable German strenght has cast considerable doubt over future moves.
US – A considerable change from the previous week’s listings, the calendar for the coming five sessions is rather tame. The greatest event risk for the first half of the period has come and gone with Monday’s ISM service activity survey for February. Last week, the group’s manufacturing report for the same period produced the biggest reaction when it issued a positive surprise, leaving the bigger than expected contraction to weigh on the dollar’s advance. On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book will arouse interest amongst rate watchers, though is unlikely that it will provide any new insight into the FOMC’s bearings for the March rate meeting. Friday presents the greatest level of event risk. Both the January trade report and February employment data are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. In the case of surprises from both, NFPs will win out.

               [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
           [B]Date[/B]
        [B]Euro Zone Economic        Date[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Date[/B]
        [B]US Economic        Data[/B]
           Mar        6
        EZ Retail Sales        (JAN)
        
        Mar        6
        Pending Home Sales        (JAN)
           Mar        7
        German Factory Orders        (JAN)
        
        Mar        7
        Fed’s Beige        Book
           Mar        8
        ECB Rate        Decision
        
        Mar        9
        Trade Balance        (JAN)
           Mar        9
        German Trade Balance        (JAN)
        
        Mar        9
        NFPs      (FEB)

[B]AUD/USD

[/B]Event Risk Australia and US
Trading Tip – These are the event risks that are the most important to watch in the week ahead. There are two specific times over the whole week that should be monitored closely, Wednesday morning for the Australian session and Friday’s New York hours. Since spot AUDUSD is currently drifting in the middle of the range, fresh entries should be taken around intra-range support and resistance levels that come up like the psychologically-important round numbers.
Australia – The Australian economic calendar contains a few indicators that have the potential to influence price action. Before the full weight of global liquidity comes online for the week, the monthly TD inflation numbers have stoked expectations for the RBA meeting. Despite the faster than expected growth in the annual inflation print, the monetary policy decision itself is still expected to be a non event, but any wayward comments from officials or a strong correlation drawn to the RNBZ’s expected hike could make raise its prominence among fundamentalists. On the other hand, the fourth quarter GDP report is holds few certainties as officials and speculators try to gauge the consumer’s strength against the disappointing trade numbers for the same period.
US – A considerable change from the previous week’s listings, the calendar for the coming five sessions is rather tame. The greatest event risk for the first half of the period has come and gone with Monday’s ISM service activity survey for February. Last week, the group’s manufacturing report for the same period produced the biggest reaction when it issued a positive surprise, leaving the bigger than expected contraction to weigh on the dollar’s advance. On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book will arouse interest amongst rate watchers, though is unlikely that it will provide any new insight into the FOMC’s bearings for the March rate meeting. Friday presents the greatest level of event risk. Both the January trade report and February employment data are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. In the case of surprises from both, NFPs will win out.

               [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
           [B]Date[/B]
        [B]Australian Economic        Date[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Date[/B]
        [B]US Economic        Data[/B]
           Mar        6
        Trade Balance        (JAN)
        
        Mar        6
        Pending Home Sales        (JAN)
           Mar        6
        RBA Rate        Decision
        
        Mar        7
        Fed’s Beige        Book
           Mar        7
        GDP      (4Q)
        
        Mar        9
        Trade Balance        (JAN)
           
        
        
        Mar        9
        NFPs      (FEB)

[B]AUD/NZD

[/B]Event Risk Australia and New Zealand
Trading Tip – In the recent wave of carry unwinding, both the high yielding Aussie and New Zealand dollars have come under intense selling pressure. Since the New Zealand currency has been the premier long carry trade, it has been hit particularly hard. Looking for guidance in the yen pairs, should the carry sell off continue, expect the AUDNZD to find further upward pressure. On the other hand, if the selling pressure balances out (or the carry otherwise comes back into vogue) then a retracement in AUDNZD from oversold levels could very well be in the works.
Australia – The Australian economic calendar contains a few indicators that have the potential to influence price action. Before the full weight of global liquidity comes online for the week, the monthly TD inflation numbers have stoked expectations for the RBA meeting. Despite the faster than expected growth in the annual inflation print, the monetary policy decision itself is still expected to be a non event, but any wayward comments from officials or a strong correlation drawn to the RNBZ’s expected hike could make raise its prominence among fundamentalists. On the other hand, the fourth quarter GDP report is holds few certainties as officials and speculators try to gauge the consumer’s strength against the disappointing trade numbers for the same period.
New Zealand– There are very few events from New Zealand that will draw traders away from technical formations and carry trade flows. One indicator that will provide some life for the market will be Terms of Trade Index for the fourth quarter. Essentially measuring trade strength in terms of inflation, the indicator will be interpreted in terms of both economic and price growth – two very important factors for New Zealand recently. When all is said and done though, the RBNZ rate decision will dictate action for both sides of the pair. Perhaps the most ambiguous decision, New Zealand policy group is expected to deliver its first hike in over a year after ample warnings that resilient consumer spending and inflation would not ease on their own.

               [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Data for March 5 – March        12[/B]
           [B]Date[/B]
        [B]Australian Economic        Date[/B]
        [B][/B]
        [B]Date[/B]
        [B]New        Zealand[/B][B] Economic        Data[/B]
           Mar        6
        Trade Balance        (JAN)
        
        Mar        7
        RNBZ Rate        Decision
           Mar        6
        RBA Rate Decision        (MAR)
        
        Mar        7
        Terms of Trade Index        (4Q)
           Mar        7
        GDP      (4Q)
        
        
        


                Pair
        EURUSD
        AUDUSD
        AUDNZD
           Date        Added
        Mar-05
        Feb-23
        Mar-02