Forex Market Commentary for June 13, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied broadly on Thursday following strong US retail sales and business inventories reports, the InBev bid for Anheuser-Busch, and ahead of the G8 meeting. With the G8 meeting started today, the US currency should remain strong. But take your cues from the US CPI report.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar sank to a one-week low on Thursday and briefly penetrated the support of a trendline rising since February. More weakness is likely and my model remains short.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5380. Below 1.5340, support comes at 1.5287. Distant support moved to 1.5230.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5460. The next level us 1.5525. Above 1.5590, euro/dollar has strong resistance at 1.5645.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to a new 3 ½-month high. More strength is now likely if 107.95 supports, and my system is long.
Immediate resistance is at 108.45. Strong resistance follows at 109.05 and 109.36. Distant resistance is then seen at 110.60.
Initial support is now seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Further strong support only comes at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25 106.25.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar collapsed to a one-month low on Thursday. My model remains short, and this is good, as the short-term outlook remains mixed to slightly bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.9434. The next level is 1.9365. Further support comes at 1.9335. Distant support is at 1.9235.
Above 1.9525, strong resistance is seen at 1.9575. Further resistance is perched at 1.9716.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied to a one-week high, as the pair alternated up and down days. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish, as the pair is stepping toward the tip of a triangle.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0490. This is followed by 1.0520. Further resistance comes at 1.0622.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0390. Below 1.0370, there is support at 1.0300. Distant support remains at 1.0250.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish