Forex Market Commentary for June 19, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended higher versus the European currencies on Wednesday, but continued to consolidate against the yen around the 107.95 pivot. The franc made most of the gains ahead of the SBC meeting, but the odds of a minute rate tightening are only 50/50. Watch out for the UK retail sales as well. Other things being equal, the US currency should consolidate further today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Wednesday as well, and my model went long. Sideways to higher trading is likely on Thursday as well.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5605. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.5725. Strong resistance is at 1.5842.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5525. The next level is 1.5470. Below 1.5417, support comes at 1.5365. D
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen continues to hug the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is seen at 107.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses but was stuck in an inside range. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.9620. Above 1.9687, strong resistance is now seen at 1.9760. Further resistance is perched at 1.9850.
Good support comes at 1.9505. Further support comes at 1.9410.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a one week low ahead of the possible rate hike today and my model went short. Trading should be mixed to lower today.
Below 1.0305, support is now seen at 1.0255. This level is followed by 1.0200. Distant support is at 1.0149.
Initial resistance is 1.0375. Above 1.0460, the next cap remains at 1.0500. Distant resistance is at 1.0548.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish