Forex Market Commentary for June 19, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar surged against he franc after the SNB left rates unchanged, surged against the pound following the ridiculously strong UK retail sales report, but continued to consolidate against the yen around the 107.95 pivot. The US currency should consolidate on Friday, but take your cues from the triple witching hour and oil price.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Thursday as well, and my model is long, but closed slightly lower. Sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5470. Below 1.5417, support comes at 1.5365.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5570. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.5725. Strong resistance is at 1.5842.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen spiked down to a one-week low early Thursday, but closed basically unchanged, and it continued to hug the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is seen at 107.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged after the absurdly strong UK retails sales, but my model was long. The pair reached resistance of a trendline, so the upside seems very limited. So, the short-term outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.9747. Above 1.9800, strong resistance remains at 1.9850.
Initial support is at 1.9690. Good support comes at 1.9650. Below 1.9585, further support comes at 1.9500.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed aggressively from a one-week low after the SNB left rates unchanged. My model went long in a timely fashion. Trading should be mixed today.
Initial resistance is 1.0495. Above 1.0548, distant resistance is at 1.0625.
Below 1.0390, support is now seen at 1.0320. Distant support is at 1.0255.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish