Euro Technical Outlook

There is very little change from yesterday.

“We maintain a bullish bias against 1.5300 but at the current juncture there are many different valid counts. Given the tendency for 4th waves to unfold in a complex manner, the rally from 1.5303 could be the final leg of a large B wave. It is also possible that a B wave is complete at the June 9 high. The alternate is very bullish and treats the rally from 1.5283-1.5817 as wave i and the decline to 1.5303 as wave ii. Under this count, wave IV is complete at 1.5283. In cases such as these, simply going with the break does not give one a high probability for success. For example, a drop below 1.5283 could complete a large C wave. Similarly, a push through 1.5843 could complete a large B wave. Given recent COT readings, we’ll stay bullish against 1.5303 since 2 of our counts call for a push through 1.5843.” Very short term, a drop below 1.5464 is possible in a small c wave.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.5303, target above 1.5843 (a drop below 1.5464 is possible first though)