[B]Event Risk UK and Switzerland
[/B]Trading Tip Though GBPCHF has stabilized into a seemingly safe period of consolidation, range trades should be taken with caution and monitored closely since this pair has displayed substantial volatility in over the previous months. On the other hand, there is evidence in the majors that suggests carry trade-driven positions have been put under wraps. Comparable USDCHF and USDJPY technical levels provide guidance in the future, and 119.50 resistance in USDJPY and 1.2050 support in USDCHF should hold if carry-pair range conditions will persist. Entries should be played cautiously though, as breakouts are especially dangerous in todays market conditions and stops should be strictly observed with closes on the lower time frames.
UK The British economic calendar is overflowing with releases this coming week, and Rightmove House Prices will kick it off. There are no expectations available, but figures out of the sector have held at robust levels, with this month unlikely to change course. Tuesday is full of inflation data, with CPI and RPI on tap and both are anticipated to remain hot, raising prospects for another hike by the Bank of England before mid-year. The minutes of the most recent policy meeting will help to clarify any perceived bias on Wednesday, but with jobless claims hitting the tape at the same time, sentiment on the British Pound may be skewed towards any surprise results. Wrapping up the week will be retail sales. Although spending is forecasted to slow, expectations are still at a solid 0.5 percent for the month, boding well for consumption trends and the retail sector.
Switzerland Price action for the Swiss franc will likely remain contingent upon movements in the Japanese Yen following the release of the G7 communiqué this weekend. While the meeting isnt likely to yield any earth shattering news, carry trades could be vulnerable to commentary regarding one-way bets or highly leveraged trades. Data-wise, the Swiss calendar is fairly thin. The often-volatile, rarely market-moving release of Adjusted Real Retail Sales isnt likely to deviate from the norm, as the expected decline to 4.0 percent still points to healthy consumer spending. Meanwhile, Producer and Import Prices are forecasted to gain 0.3 percent once again in March, as higher oil prices should give factory gate costs a boost and leave the markets expecting two more rate hikes this year by the Swiss National Bank.
Data for April 15 April 20
Data for April 15 April 20
Date
UK Economic Date
Date
Swiss Economic Data
Apr 15
Rightmove House Prices (APR)
Apr 17
Adjusted Real Retail Sales (FEB)
Apr 17
CPI (MAR)
Apr 20
Producer & Import Prices (MAR)
Apr 18
Bank of England Minutes
Apr 18
Jobless Claims Change (MAR)
Apr 20
Retail Sales (MAR)
Event Risk Euro-zone and Canada
Trading Tip The range for EURCAD is rather clear, though it is not actionable right now. Spot at the close on Friday was smack in the middle of 1.5505 resistance and 1.5275 support. However, this breathing room may very well help to sustain the range. With a few key indicators due around the beginning of the week, a surprise may waste its momentum on reaching the limits of the range. Also promising for a EURCAD range were the breakouts in EURUSD and USDCAD last week, which have relieved a lot of pressure building in the Euro and Canadian dollar. The pair should be monitored for the entry criteria, but if a trade does not set up within a week, it should be abandoned as conditions may change.
Euro Zone This week will start out with a bang as Euro-zone CPI could make or break rate hike estimates for June while the ZEW survey the following day may reflect resilient optimism amongst investors. However, with inflation remaining at high levels and interest rate expectations for the ECB still elevated, it remains questionable how long sentiment in the Euro-zone will stay out of pessimistic territory. At the same time as ZEW, the trade deficit for the Euro-zone is anticipated to narrow to -5.0 billion euros, which would help allay fears that the strong Euro has put a dent in export growth. The ECBs monthly report will end the week early but could bring about a spike in price action as traders will look towards the release in order to gauge the central banks outlook.
Canada While the economic calendar for Canada is somewhat full of releases, the figures announced ahead of the Bank of Canadas core CPI may have little impact on the markets. Should CPI continue to show that price growth remains hot and well above the 2.0 percent target, the bias of the central bank could be interpreted as being on the hawkish side and would underpin further gains for the Canadian dollar. Prior to CPI, however, manufacturing shipments are estimated to rise, indicating that the industrial sector has not yet been hit by the Loonies appreciation while International Securities outflows may reflect net investment outflows. On Friday, retail sales are anticipated to fall back, though declines may be concentrated in the suffering auto sector.
Data for April 15 April 20
Data for April 15 April 20
Date
Euro-zone Economic Date
Date
Canadian Economic Data
Apr 16
Euro-zone CPI (MAR)
Apr 17
Manufacturing Shipments (FEB)
Apr 17
ZEW Survey
Apr 18
Intl Securities Transactions (FEB)
Apr 17
Euro-zone Trade Balance (FEB)
Apr 19
BoC CPI (MAR)
Apr 19
ECB Monthly Report
Apr 20
Retail Sales (FEB)
Event Risk Australia and New Zealand
Trading Tip The AUDNZD is forming one of the clearest ranges among all of the free-floating pairs in FX. However, every day that the pair holds its painfully obvious congestion levels, the greater the chance of a breakout. While a range itself would not typically lead to a breakout move, a closing symmetrical triangle surely does. While price action comes under greater pressure from its technical formations, a fundamental trigger for a big move stands out on the horizon. If AUDNZD is still holding its range by Tuesday evening, open positions should be taken off as New Zealand CPI promises to be a big market mover. However, given the average range of daily bars over the past two weeks, profits should be already booked by then.
Australia While the Australian data set is much fuller next week compared to New Zealands, the releases on tap are generally second-tier in nature and may only have marginal impact on Aussie trade. Westpac Consumer Confidence could ease back from 3.7 percent in April, as the Reserve Bank of Australias hawkish policy stance may have left households worried about the impact of potentially higher interest rates. On the other hand, the Conference Board Leading Indicator could rebound in February on the back of improvements in the trade balance. Just a few hours later, import and export prices for the first quarter will be released, and both are forecasted to fall back. Nevertheless, the import price component is estimated to decline more than the export price index, indicating that pricing values would work to the benefit of a stronger trade balance in coming months.
New Zealand Price data will rule the New Zealand economic calendar next week and has the potential to knock AUDNZD out of its tight range. Consumer prices in the first quarter are estimated to surge 0.6 percent after easing back -0.2 percent during the quarter prior. Such a result would signal strong inflation pressures in the country, which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would find very hard to ignore. Furthermore, with consumption and credit growth remaining strong, the central bank could be forced to raise rates even higher in coming months.
Data for April 15 April 20
Data for April 15 April 20
Date
Australia Economic Date
Date
New Zealand Economic Data
Apr 17
Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR)
Apr 17
Consumer Prices (1Q)
Apr 19
Conference Board Leading Index (FEB)
Apr 19
Import Price Index (1Q)
Apr 19
Export Price Index (1Q)
Pair
USDCHF
USDCAD
EURNZD
Date Added
Apr-06
Mar-23
Mar-30