British Pound to Drop Against Major Currencies?

Daily Crosses
April 26th, 2007

British Pound to Drop Against Major Currencies?

1.?? ?GBPJPY
2.?? ?GBPCHF
[B]3.?? ?GBPAUD

[/B]

GBPJPY - The Sterling-Yen has remained within the bounds of its 2-month channel, but waning bullish momentum points to potential failure near the 239.00 mark. Connecting the 1/23 and 4/17 peaks leaves a downward sloping trendline at aforementioned levels, with a looming MACD crossover pointing to a potential bearish turn on the daily charts. Nearest support is seen at the 4/24 low of 235.98. A look at monthly charts paints a much more bullish outlook for the GBPJPY, however, with a close of the current month’s candle near current levels to complete a morning star formation. As such, a break above 239.00 cannot be ruled out, and would in all likelihood challenge the 1/23 high of 241.49.?

GBPCHF - As we said last week, “The rally from 2.3288 has stalled near the 61.8% of 2.4757-2.3288 at 2.4196 and the form of the rally is corrective.” Given continued failures at this significant Fibonacci, our outlook remains largely unchanged for a medium-term bearish turn. A crossover on the daily MACD suggests that the short-term outlook is likewise bearish, with the next move to test support at the 100-day SMA of 2.4060. A break below eyes subsequent support at 2.3911, while a negation of this scenario would come on a sustained close above 2.4196.

GBPAUD - Last month’s break of trendline support has left the GBPAUD consistently lower through recent weeks, but a rebound off of the 61.8% retracement of 2.2672-2.5496 at 2.3748 has mounted a challenge to channel resistance at 2.4257. A failure at this level has left the medium term trend intact, but intraday trends point to a retest of the significant resistance mark. A break above would negate our otherwise bearish outlook, with a further upward move to eye 4/4 highs at 2.4435. Otherwise, a move below 2.3748 leaves the downtrend in place.

Table

CCI(20) - 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
> 100 - extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish???
RSI(14) - 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 - bullish
50 > - bearish
> 70 - overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD - MACD[1])
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish


GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period MAs and accelerated to the upside, while the 20-period MA is acts as support. The intraday RSI is above its neutrality level and lacks downward momentum. As long as 185.10 holds on the downside, look for a move further upside towards 186.25. A break above this level would call for a move further upside towards 186.75.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 186.25 and the second target at 186.75. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.45 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 184.05. The pivot point is at 185.10.

Resistance levels: 186.25 186.75 187.35

Support levels: 184.45 184.05 183.60 183

[B]Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 26 2015[/B]

[B]Technical outlook and chart setups:[/B]

The GBP/CHF pair has taken out initial resistance at 1.4920 earlier and is now setting up for the 1.5120 levels as seen here. Please note that the pair is now in the buy zone of its downtrend line coming from the 1.5400/10 levels. A push through the 1.5120 levels could trigger a meaningful retracement lower towards the 1.4700 levels. It is hence recommended to initiate fresh long positions on a dip/retracement lower. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4700 levels, followed by 1,4650, 1.4550 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5120 levels, followed by 1.5350 and higher.

[B]Trading recommendations:[/B]

Initiate fresh long positions on the pullback towards the 1.4700 levels.

[B]Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18, 2015[/B]

[B]Technical outlook and chart setups:[/B]

The EUR/JPY remains more or less unchanged from yesterday trading around 131.25 at the moment. Please note that bulls are expected to regain control from here on, but prices need to stay above at least 130.60. At the moment, prices are bouncing from the Fibonacci 0.786 support of a rally between 130.60 and 132.20/30. It is expected to push the pair higher through the levels of 133.20/30. It is recommended to hold on long positions with risk at 130.30. Immediate support is seen at 130.60, while resistance is seen at 133.20.

[B]Trading recommendations:[/B]

Remain long with stop at 130.30, targets are at 133.20 and 134.70.

Good luck!


[B]Technical outlook and chart setups:[/B]

The GBP/CHF pair might have finally reached an intermediate high at 1.5470 reversing lower. The pair is already overdue for a corrective drop towards 1.4900 before the rally could resume further. Moreover, there is a pin-bar candlestick pattern as well on the H4 chart followed by a potential engulfing bearish underway now. The aggressive trade setup would be to go short with risk at 1.5500. A conservative way would be to remain flat now. Immediate interim resistance is seen at 1.5470, while support is seen at 1.5350.

[B]Trading recommendations:[/B]

Aggressive: Stay short with stop at 1.5500, a target is at 1.4900

Conservative: stay flat.

Good luck!

[B]Gold technical analysis for November 18, 2015[/B]

Gold price hit a new low yesterday and remained in a short- and long-term bearish trend. Prices are moving towards lower lows and lower highs. However, the risk reward for going short at these levels is not favorable. It is preferred to stay neutral and wait for the buy signal. Gold is near its end of the bear market.
The weekly chart above shows gold price remains in a long-term bearish trend. The price is below the weekly cloud and tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The trend is clearly bearish with the lower channel boundary near $1,045. However, stochastics are entering the oversold levels. Once we see the stochastic turning upwards and moving above 20, we should be ready for a strong bounce. This is expected to come within the next 2 weeks.