Daily market technical Analysis And outlook By ACFX.com

[B]March 20th, 2012
Currencies

EUR/USD. [/B]
The recovery in the U.S. economy and massive liquidity injections from major central banks have combined to drive a rally in share markets since late last year.

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against most of its major traded currencies, while the euro held steady around $1.3230, after rising as high as $1.32659 on Monday.
That meant an owner of Greek CDS would be paid 78.5 cents on the euro, which analysts said was enough to compensate for the roughly 75 percent loss investors incurred on the country’s debt restructuring.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement that it put its bond-buying program on hold last week also encouraged traders to cover bets against the single currency.


[B]Commodities

Oil[/B]
Commodities were broadly weaker, with base and precious metals both edging down, while crude oil eased more than half a percent on an improved supply outlook as Libyan exports are returning to pre-war levels faster than expected.

Oil in New York dropped for the first time in three days. U.S. inventories climbed to the highest level in six months last week as processors idled units and imports from Canada increased.

Oil continued a decline that began on Monday on news that top exporter Saudi Arabia increased shipments in January and that Libyan production next month would return to levels seen before the civil war that ousted Muammar Gaddafi.
Brent crude and U.S. crude both fell about 70 cents to around $125 and $107.40 a barrel respectively.


Gold
prices dipped in Asian trading Tuesday, erasing earlier gains stemming from reports that central banks have been stocking up on the metal and also on comments from a key Federal Reserve official, who said additional easing measures can’t be ruled out for the U.S. economy.
On the Comex division of the NYMEX, gold futures for April delivery traded down 0.27% at $1,662.85 a troy ounce.


B]Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 10thJanuary 2013[/B]

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3090 – 1.2965
Target 1 : 1.3310
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2875

Comments
As posted yesterday. EURUSD continues to trade around the Fibonacci support area. A reaction may also occur as the price action approaches the upward sloping trend line. We continue to monitor a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 10th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.6105 – 1.5945
Target 1 : 1.6385
Target 2 : 1.6620
Stop : <1.5825

Comments
GBPUSD has opened negatively this morning of what maybe the third straight down day. However we are still very early into the session with London yet to open therefore reasonably this pair still has time to close higher. The price action continues to trade within Fibonacci support. We are monitoring a possible move to Target 1. If GBPUSD breaks down from these levels there is a possibility of a bounce off the downward sloping trend line.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 10th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 85.05 – 83.10
Target 1 : 88.35
Target 2 : 85.50
Stop : <81.65

Comments
The close beneath the low of the last isolated high was negated by subsequent price action with the 8 period moving average offering support. We are monitoring the possibility USDJPY trading above the last high. A failure to achieve new highs however may herald a move to Fibonacci support. The bias is to the long side with the preferred entry points being around the 8 and 34 period moving averages and the then Fibonacci support. However with such strong news based move further upside momentum is possible.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 10th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 0.9230 – 0.9320
Target 1 : 0.9080
Target 2 : 0.9040
Stop : 0.9380

Comments
USDCHF has this morning open positively with an open above the downward sloping trend line. We are however still trading within Fibonacci resistance. We continue to monitor the price action at these levels for weakness which would signal a possible resumption of the down trend.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 10th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1660 – 1680
Target 1 : 1625
Target 2 : 1590
Stop : >1695

Comments
After such high recent volatility Gold has experienced a fairly tight range. We are now in Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring the price action for signs of weakness that may indicate a possible resumption of the down trend into the direction of Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 10th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 89.55 – 87.00
Target 1 : 93.80
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
Oil is experiencing a tight consolidation at the highs. As previously posted, our bias on Oil is long but with a preference to enter the market at Fibonacci support. However Oil has continued to trade at its highs which may possibly indicate further upside momentum.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 11th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1660 – 1680
Target 1 : 1625
Target 2 : 1590
Stop : >1695

Comments
Yesterday we saw a strong positive move into Fibonacci resistance. We continue to monitor the price action

for signs of weakness and possible resumption of the prior down trend.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 11th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDJPY continues to trade higher with only brief pauses of consolidation. Our bias is long but with no Swing

set up for the time being.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 11thJanuary 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3090 – 1.2965
Target 1 : 1.3310
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2875

Comments
Yesterday afternoon we saw a strong move away from Fibonacci support into the direction of Target 1. We

continue to monitor a possible move and breach of Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 11th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 0.9230 – 0.9320
Target 1 : 0.9080
Target 2 : 0.9040
Stop : 0.9380

Comments
USDCHF yesterday experienced a strong negative move away from Fibonacci resistance. We continue to monitor

the price action for a possible move to and breach of Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 11th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 89.55 – 87.00
Target 1 : 93.80
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
Oil attempted to breach the downward sloping trend line only for the move to be rejected. We are monitoring

the price action for a number of possible scenarios the most obvious being a further attempt to breach

resistance or a pull back towards Fibonacci support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 11th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.6105 – 1.5945
Target 1 : 1.6385
Target 2 : 1.6620
Stop : <1.5825

Comments
GBPUSD yesterday saw a strong positive reaction and move away from Fibonacci support. We continue to monitor

a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 16thJanuary 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
There has been a sufficient pull back to allow us to post the next possible Fibonacci support range. As previously mentioned the 8 period moving average may offer some initial support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 16th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.6105 – 1.5945
Target 1 : 1.6385
Target 2 : 1.6620
Stop : <1.5825

Comments
GBPUSD continues to trade around Fibonacci support with the previous 3 sessions trading within the range of the 10th January candle. We are monitoring for a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 16th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1660 – 1680
Target 1 : 1625
Target 2 : 1590
Stop : >1695

Comments
This morning, Gold has open positively and is now trading above upper Fibonacci resistance level. Although the bias based upon the strategy remains negative our eye is drawn to a possible breach of the prior Lower High as this may indicate a termination or pause of this down trend.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 16th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 89.55 – 87.00
Target 1 : 93.80
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
The downward sloping trend line continues to offer strong resistance. We continue to monitor the price action for a possible attempt to once again breach this resistance or alternatively for oil to pull back in the direction of Fibonacci support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 17thJanuary 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend Long
Ambush Zone 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 1.3400
Target 2 1.3385
Stop <1.2995

Comments
There has been a sufficient pull back to allow us to post the next possible Fibonacci support range. As previously mentioned the 8 period moving average may offer some initial support.

Definitions
HH Higher High
HL Higher Low
LL Lower Low
LH Lower High
CofT Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 17th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend Long
Ambush Zone 1.6105 – 1.5945
Target 1 1.6385
Target 2 1.6620
Stop <1.5825

Comments
GBPUSD continues to trade around Fibonacci support with the previous 3 sessions trading within the range of the 10th January candle. We are monitoring for a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
HH Higher High
HL Higher Low
LL Lower Low
LH Lower High
CofT Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 17th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend -
Ambush Zone -
Target 1 -
Target 2 -
Stop -

Comments
Yesterday we saw a powerful move through the downward sloping trend line that was offering resistance. We have yet to see a 3 bar swing reversal which would change the bias to the long side however we have HH and HL Micro Swing pivots which combined with the trend line break points to a possible trend reversal or pause. For the shorts to stay in control, a down move needs to break the down trend line with conviction and then at least take out MS isolated low.

Definitions
HH Higher High
HL Higher Low
LL Lower Low
LH Lower High
CofT Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 17th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend Long
Ambush Zone 88.65 – 83.40
Target 1 89.70
Target 2 92.90
Stop <81.65

Comments
Yesterday’s close beneath the low of the prior isolated HH together with today’s negative open has allowed us to post a possible scenario. Our bias is long but with a preference to participate in the market in or around Fibonacci support.

Definitions
HH Higher High
HL Higher Low
LL Lower Low
LH Lower High
CofT Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
After reaching Target 1, EURUSD has been trading between the last swing high and the 8 period moving averages. A move back to Fibonacci support may offer the possibility of participating once again on the long side however an upward break from these levels can also not be ruled out.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Last Wednesday’s HL breach carried on through to Friday. Technically the Swing Strategy is bearish. However GBPUSD is now trading around the area of previous resistance which may now offer some support. We are monitoring the possibility of a bounce from these levels. At the moment, it is probably too early in the move to post possible Fibonacci resistance sell zones.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Thursdays move above the previous swing high would indicate that the long bias will now dominate directional price momentum. The swing strategy bias has taken account of this change in sentiment. At the moment we have not posted a new trade set up for longs as it is possible too early in the current move.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 89.55 – 87.00
Target 1 : 93.80
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
Friday’s action was muted with Oil closing lower after initially putting in marginal new highs in what was by comparison a very tight range. This price action may indicate the possibility of Oil moving back to the 8 period moving average or trend line support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

[B][U]Daily Market Outlook[/U][/B]

Posted by on January 21, 2013

Important Financial Indicators of the day 	Forecast 	Previous

EUR 09:00 (GMT) EuroGroup Meeting text text

[B]Currencies[/B]

[B]AUD/JPY[/B] The Australian dollar declined
versus the yen before an inflation report this week that may
prompt further interest-rate cuts, damping demand for the
nation’s assets.
    Australia’s dollar declined 0.4 percent to 94.28 yen as of
    1:21 p.m. in Sydney, and traded little changed at $1.0516 after
    touching $1.0486 on Jan. 18, the least since Jan. 8. New
    Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, weakened 0.8 percent to
    74.84 yen. It declined 0.2 percent to 83.47 cents, after
    touching 83.34, the lowest since Jan. 7.

[B]USD/JPY[/B] The yen rallied from its weakest
level in 2 1/2 years as Asian stock declines spurred demand for
safety and a decrease in bearish bets supported the currency.
    The yen rose 0.4 percent to 89.75 per dollar as of 11:52 a.m. in Tokyo after earlier touching 90.25, the weakest since June 2010. Japan’s currency gained 0.3 percent to 119.59 per euro, after sliding 0.8 percent last week. The dollar was little changed at $1.3324 per euro from its close on Jan. 18, when it advanced 0.4 percent.

[B]GBP/USD[/B] The pound had its steepest weekly
drop against the dollar since June on concern the U.K. economy
is struggling to expand and as growing investor confidence in
the euro-area damps demand for the currency as a haven.

    The pound fell 1.7 percent to $1.5861 in the week to 5:46
    p.m. London time yesterday, after sliding to $1.5854, the lowest
    level since Nov. 16. The U.K. currency lost 1.5 percent to 83.83
    pence per euro after depreciating to 83.95 pence, the weakest
    since March 28.

[B]USD/CAD[/B] The Canadian dollar fell the most in a month against its U.S. counterpart as selling pressure emerged after signs of economic growth from the U.S. and China failed to drive the currency above a key technical level.
    The loonie fell 0.7 percent to 99.17 cents per U.S. dollar
    this week in Toronto, the largest decline since the five days
    ended Dec. 21. One loonie buys $1.0084.

[B]Commodities[/B]

[B]Oil [/B]dropped from the highest price
in four months in New York before U.S. lawmakers vote on budget
measures and European finance ministers meet to discuss the debt
crisis that threatens the region’s economy.
    WTI for February delivery, which expires tomorrow, slid as
    much as 36 cents to $95.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the
    New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $95.23 at 1:23 p.m.
    Sydney time. The more-active March future declined 27 cents to
    $95.77. The front-month future increased 7 cents to $95.56 on
    Jan. 18, the highest close since Sept. 17.
    Brent for March settlement fell 25 cents to $111.64 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The average volume of all contracts traded was 84 percent above the 100-day average. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $15.89 to WTI futures for the same month. The gap was $15.16 on Jan. 17, the narrowest since July 24

[B]Gold [/B]advanced on expectations for
more stimulus while U.S. lawmakers wrangle over the country’s
debt limit. Silver traded near the highest level in a month and
was set for the longest rally in a year
    Gold rallied for a 12th year in 2012 on global stimulus
    measures. The Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting
    today, while European finance ministers meet in Brussels for the
    first time this year. In the U.S., House Republicans will use a
    planned Jan. 23 vote on a three-month debt-ceiling increase to
    try to force Senate Democrats to adopt a budget to spell out
    their spending plan.

[B]Equities[/B]

[B]Asian stocks[/B] fell amid
speculation shares may have risen too far, too fast. Japanese
shares led the retreat as the yen climbed against the dollar
after hitting its lowest level in 2 1/2 years.

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 132.62 as
    of 11:35 a.m. in Tokyo, with about four stocks falling for every
    three that rose. The gauge rallied 11 percent from Nov. 14
    through Jan. 18 as Japanese shares jumped on optimism Prime
    Minister Shinzo Abe will pursue more aggressive stimulus
    policies to boost the economy.

[B]European stocks[/B] were little changed
this week as better-than-expected economic data from China and
the U.S. offset concern that debt-ceiling talks will weigh on
recovering growth in the world’s biggest economy.

    The Stoxx 600 Europe Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 287.03 this week. The measure climbed to its highest level since February 2011 last week amid speculation that U.S. companies’ earnings would exceed analysts’ estimates.

U[B].S stocks[/B] rose for a third week,
driving benchmark indexes to five-year highs, as earnings from
companies including General Electric Co. and Goldman Sachs Group
Inc. beat estimates and debt-limit talks progressed.

    The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1 percent to 1,485.98, extending its 2013 advance to 4.2 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 161.27 points, or 1.2 percent, to 13,649.70. Both measures closed at their highest levels since December 2007.

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
As posted yesterday, “after reaching Target 1, EURUSD has been trading between the last swing high and the 8 period moving averages. A move back to Fibonacci support may offer the possibility of participating once again on the long side however an upward break from these levels can also not be ruled out.”

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday’s price action managed to breach the 15th November lows. This price action has created a lower low on the Weekly time frame. At the moment, it is probably too early in the move to post a possible Fibonacci resistance sell zone area.

Definitions

Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 22nd January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
As posted yesterday, “Thursdays move above the previous swing high would indicate that the long bias will now dominate directional price momentum. The swing strategy bias has taken account of this change in sentiment. At the moment we have not posted a new trade set up for longs as it is possible too early in the current move.”

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 22nd January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
After the previous two days muted price action Oil is this morning trading higher. We continue to monitor the price action for an opportunity to participate in this up move.

Definitions

Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

[B][U]Daily Market Outlook[/U][/B]

Posted by on January 22, 2013

Important Financial Indicators of the day 	Forecast 	Previous

JPY Tentative BOJ Press Conference
EUR 12:00 (GMT) German ZEW Economic Sentiment 12.2 6.9
CAD 15:30 (GMT) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.5%
USD 17:00 (GMT) Existing Home Sales 5.09M 5.04M
EUR 20:00 (GMT) ECB President Draghi Speaks

[B]Currencies[/B]

[B]AUD/JPY[/B] The Australian dollar halted a two- day decline against the yen before the Bank of Japan (8301) concludes a policy meeting amid speculation it will announce further stimulus measures.
    Australia’s dollar traded at 94.14 yen as of 1:41 p.m. in
    Sydney from 94.23 yesterday after a 0.6 percent two-day decline.
    It rose 0.1 percent to $1.0522. New Zealand’s dollar bought
    75.04 yen from 74.91 yesterday and rose 0.4 percent to 83.89
    U.S. cents

[B]USD/JPY[/B] The yen weakened toward the lowest level since June 2010 after the Bank of Japan (8301) announced open- ended asset purchases and adopted a 2 percent inflation target.
    The yen lost 0.2 percent to 89.78 per dollar at 1:11 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s currency weakened 0.4 percent to 119.78 per euro following a 0.6 percent advance to 119.30 yesterday. The euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.3350.

[B]Commodities[/B]

[B]Oil [/B]traded near a four-month high in New York as Japan’s central bank said it will expand asset purchases to lift the world’s third-biggest crude consumer out of its third recession in five years. Brent prices advanced.
    Crude for February delivery, which expires today, was at
    $95.59 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
    Exchange, up 3 cents at 11:53 a.m. Singapore time. The more
    active March contract gained 8 cents at $96.12. Yesterday’s
    transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement
    purposes. Front-month futures rose 7 cents to $95.56 on Jan. 18,
    the highest close since Sept. 17.
    Brent oil for March settlement on the London-based ICE
    Futures Europe exchange traded at $112.05 a barrel, up 34 cents.
    The average volume of all contracts was 4 percent above the 100-
    day average. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of
    $15.97 to New York futures for the same month. The spread was
    $15.16 on Jan. 17, the narrowest since July 24.

[B]Gold [/B]extended its advance toward a one-month high after the Bank of Japan set a 2 percent inflation target and shifted to Federal Reserve-style open-ended asset purchases in an attempt to end two decades of deflation.
    Spot gold increased as much as 0.2 percent to $1,693.30 an
    ounce and traded at $1,692.60 at 12:08 p.m. in Singapore.
    Bullion reached a one-month high of $1,696.29 on Jan. 17 on
    concern global growth may slow. Gold for February delivery
    gained 0.3 percent to $1,691.90 on the Comex in New York.

[B]Equities[/B]

[B]Asian stocks[/B] rose as the Bank of Japan (8301) said it would set a 2 percent inflation target and shifted to Federal Reserve-style open-ended asset purchases.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 132.43 as of of 1:12 p.m. in Tokyo, with about the same number of stocks rising and falling. Asia’s benchmark equities index is poised to gain for a third month amid signs the U.S. and Chinese economies are recovering and as Japanese shares rallied on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s more aggressive stimulus policies.

[B]European stocks[/B] climbed to a one-
week high as euro-area finance ministers met for the first time
this year to address the region’s debt crisis. U.S. index
futures advanced.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.3 percent to 287.78 at the close of trading, the highest since Jan. 9. The gauge has gained 2.9 percent this year after U.S. lawmakers agreed on a budget deal avoiding most tax increases and spending cuts that had threatened to push the economy into a recession. With the so-called fiscal cliff averted, Congress now must decide whether to lift the federal debt limit as soon as mid-February

[B]Canadian stocks[/B] rose, closing at the highest level in more than 17 months, as European finance ministers met for the first time this year to discuss a solution to the region’s debt crisis.
    The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) rose 68.56 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,794.25 in Toronto, the highest close since August 2011. The benchmark gauge has gained 2.9 percent this year. Markets in New York were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
EURUSD has experienced 3 days of indecision which can be seen by the doji candles. Today’s open also has the same indecisive price action. The consequence of this indecisiveness can be seen by the formation of a converging triangle. A break of this pattern either to the highs or to the lows may point to the direction of the next move. However, one must be aware of false break outs. A downward break may give the possibility of buying EURUSD within Fibonacci support. An upward break could offer a buying opportunity with our preference being to wait for a pullback after the initial move.

Definitions

Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
GBPUSD continues to bounce around support in what can be described as much muted price action. A move back into the direction of the 8 period moving averages is a possibility with our preference being a substantial retracement which would offer a selling opportunity at Fibonacci resistance. However a break of these lows could offer a selling opportunity with the logical action maybe to wait for a pullback after the initial move.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 24th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1661.10 – 1640.80
Target 1 : 1696.40
Target 2 : 1723.30
Stop : <1625.80

Comments
Gold has begun a possible retracement. A new possible Fibonacci resistance buy zone has been posted.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 24th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.00 – 87.70
Target 1 : 96.85
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
After yesterday’s lower close we have now posted the possibility of a buying opportunity at Fibonacci support. As the 8 period moving averages have offered support to this move we are monitoring the price action at these levels.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

[B]Daily Market Outlook[/B]

Posted by on January 24, 2013

Important Financial Indicators of the day 	Forecast 	Previous

EUR 10:30 (GMT) German Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.1 46.0
USD 15:30 (GMT) Unemployement Claims 359K 335K

[B]Currencies[/B]

[B]AUD/USD[/B] Australian
currency rose versus the yen after a survey of companies
showed Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in two
years, brightening the outlook for commodity exports.

    Australia’s dollar rose 0.3 percent to 93.79 yen as of 3:19
    p.m. in Sydney. It fell 0.3 percent to $1.0520. New Zealand’s
    currency gained 0.7 percent to 75.19 yen and added 0.1 percent
    to 84.34 U.S. cents.

[B]USD/JPY[/B] The yen weakened, snapping a three- day advance against the dollar, as signs of strengthening manufacturing in China curbed Asian stock losses and damped demand for safer assets.
    The yen lost 0.7 percent to 89.18 per dollar as of 1:09
    p.m. in Tokyo after gaining 1.7 percent in the previous three
    days. The Japanese currency reached 90.25 on Jan. 21, the
    weakest level since June 2010. It fell 0.6 percent to 118.75 per
    euro from yesterday. The dollar was little changed at $1.3315
    per euro.

[B]USD/CAD[/B] The Canadian dollar fell to parity against its U.S. counterpart after the Bank of Canada said the need to raise interest rates is less urgent as the economy will take longer to reach full output
    The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.7 percent to 99.92 cents per U.S. dollar at 5:02 p.m. in Toronto. It touched the weakest level since Nov. 19. One loonie buys $1.0008.
    The currency weakened beyond its 200-day moving average at
    99.83 cents.

[B]Commodities[/B]

[B]Oil [/B]traded near the lowest level in
a week in New York after U.S. crude stockpiles gained and
capacity on the Seaway pipeline was reduced.

    West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery was at
    $95.46 a barrel, up 23 cents, in electronic trading on the New
    York Mercantile Exchange at 1:27 p.m. Sydney time. The contract
    dropped $1.45 yesterday, the most since Dec. 21, to the lowest
    price since Jan. 16. The average volume of all futures traded
    was 75 percent above the 100-day average.
    Brent for March settlement fell 32 cents to $112.48 a
    barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The
    European benchmark contract was at a premium of $17.04 to WTI
    futures, down from $17.57 yesterday. The gap was $15.16 on Jan.
    17, the narrowest in almost six months

[B]Gold [/B]will rally this year and into
2014 as U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers will probably
maintain asset purchases for two more years to buttress the
recovery of the largest economy, according to Morgan Stanley.
    Gold for immediate-delivery fell 0.2 percent at $1,682.05 an ounce at 12:24 p.m. in Singapore. The price dropped to $1,625.85 on Jan. 4, the lowest level since August, after the release of the FOMC minutes. Gold, which slumped 5.5 percent in the three months to December, has gained 0.4 percent this year.

[B]Equities[/B]

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as Japanese shares rallied on a weaker yen, China’s manufacturing beat estimates and North Korea threatened a nuclear test. Apple Inc. (AAPL) suppliers fell after the company reported its slowest profit growth since 2003.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 131.96 as of 1:07 p.m. in Tokyo, after gaining as much as 0.1 percent and falling 0.4 percent. About four stocks rose for every three that retreated. The gauge jumped 10 percent through yesterday from Nov. 14, when elections were announced in Japan, spurring a rally in the country’s shares amid speculation the new government would do whatever was necessary to end deflation.

[B]European stocks[/B] advanced, after remaining little changed for most of the day, as the U.S. House of Representatives gathered to vote on suspending the country’s debt limit and as results from Novartis to Unilever (ULVR) beat analyst estimates.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.2 percent to 288.22 in London, as the number of shares rising and those falling were roughly even. The gauge this month surged to the highest level since February 2011 as U.S. lawmakers agreed on a compromise budget and American companies reported better-than-projected earnings.

[B]U.S stocks[/B] rose, after benchmark indexes reached five-year highs, as lawmakers
voted to temporarily suspend the federal debt limit and technology
stocks rallied amid better-than-forecast earnings.

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2 percent to 1,494.81 at 4
    p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67.12 points, or
    0.5 percent, to 13,779.33. About 6.1 billion shares changed hands on
    U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average. Nasdaq 100 futures
    dropped 1.7 percent to 2,712 as of 6:18 p.m. on Apple’s earnings
    report.

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.3385
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
After 3 quiet days, EURUSD experienced a strong up move that was eventually held at the upper level of the converging triangle formation. We are monitoring the price action for a possible upside break of this triangle pattern.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25h January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -



Comments

GBPUSD broke down from during yesterday’s session. There was an opportunity to short the pull back off the 1 hour chart in the area of the 8 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 0.9230 – 0.9140
Target 1 : 0.9385
Target 2 : 0.9490
Stop : <0.9080

Comments
USDCHF is now trading beneath the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action for a possible move back to Fibonacci support which may offer the possibility of a buying opportunity.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th January 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Once again USDJPY experienced a limited pull back and although it did manage to close beneath the 8 period moving averages, the longs came in push USDJPY past the previous isolated high. At some point this uptrend will end but the direction at the moment is one way with limited pullbacks.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Tren

[B][U]Daily Market Outlook[/U][/B]

Posted by on January 25, 2013

Important Financial Indicators of the day 	Forecast 	Previous

EUR 11:00 (GMT) German Ifo Business Climate 103.1 102.4
GBP 11:30 (GMT) Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.9%
CAD 15:30 (GMT) Core CPI m/m -0.2% 0.0%
USD 17:00 (GMT) New Home Sales 387K 377K

[B]Currencies[/B]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] The Australian dollar rose versus the yen for a second day on speculation pressure will increase on the Bank of Japan (8301) to expand stimulus after core consumer prices in the nation declined last month.
    Australia’s dollar rose 0.2 percent to 94.54 yen as of 1:45
    p.m. in Sydney. It fell as low as $1.0439, the weakest since
    Jan. 4, before trading little changed at $1.0452.

[B]USD/JPY[/B] The yen headed for a record stretch
of weekly losses against the dollar as data showing a decline in
Japanese consumer prices added to the case for further monetary
stimulus from the central bank.
    The Japanese currency slid 0.1 percent to 90.45 per dollar
    at 1:17 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, after earlier touching
    90.69, the weakest since June 21, 2010. It was set for an 11th
    weekly loss, the longest losing streak in data compiled by
    Bloomberg going back to 1971.

[B]GBP/USD[/B] The pound fell to the weakest level in 11 months versus the euro before data tomorrow that economists said will show U.K. gross domestic product shrank last quarter.
    The pound depreciated 0.8 percent to 84.76 pence per euro
    at 4:35 p.m. London time after sliding to 84.81 pence, the
    weakest since Feb. 28. Sterling fell 0.4 percent to $1.5780
    after declining to $1.5757, the lowest since Aug. 28.

[B]Commodities[/B]

[B]Oil [/B]headed for a seventh weekly
advance in New York, the longest run of gains in almost four
years, amid signs of global economic growth and a drop in crude
stockpiles at Cushing, the U.S. storage hub.
    Crude for March delivery was at $95.88 a barrel, down 7
    cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange
    at 1:11 p.m. Sydney time. Futures rose 0.8 percent to $95.95
    yesterday, the most since Jan. 17, and are up 0.4 percent this
    week. A seventh weekly gain would be the longest run since April
    2009. The average volume of all futures traded today was 61
    percent below the 100-day average.
    Brent for March settlement fell 17 cents to $113.11 a
    barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The
    European benchmark contract was at a premium of $17.27 to WTI
    futures, down from $17.33 yesterday. The gap was $15.16 on Jan.
    17, the narrowest in almost six months.

[B]Gold [/B]was poised for a weekly decline after reports from the U.S. to China signaled improving global growth, curbing demand for the metal as a haven asset. Platinum was on course for the best run of weekly gains in almost a year.
    Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,663.85 an ounce, the cheapest since Jan. 14, and was at $1,667.85 at 12:51 p.m. in Singapore. Prices are 1 percent lower this week, the most since the period to Dec. 21. Bullion for February delivery dropped as much as 0.4 percent to $1,662.60 an ounce, also the lowest since Jan. 14, on the Comex in New York

[B]Equities[/B]

[B]Asian stocks[/B] rose as declines
in Japanese consumer prices added to the case for more monetary
stimulus, boosting the Topix Index toward its longest weekly
winning streak in 40 years. Shares also gained after U.S.
jobless claims fell to a five-year low.

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) rose less than 0.1 percent to 131.49 as of 12:50 p.m. in Tokyo. About five stocks gained for every four that fell. The gauge is set for a 0.9 percent loss this week after a two-day retreat from the highest close in 17- months on Jan 22.

[B]European stocks[/B] climbed to their
highest level since February 2011 as jobless claims in the U.S.
fell to a five-year low and the House of Representatives voted
to temporarily suspend the federal government’s borrowing limit.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) gained 0.2 percent to 288.89 at the close of trading, after earlier sliding as much as 0.4 percent. The equity benchmark has climbed 3.3 percent this year after U.S. lawmakers agreed on a compromise budget.

[B]U.S stocks[/B] rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index briefly topping 1,500, as an unexpected drop in jobless claims and better-than-forecast earnings offset the worst slump for Apple Inc. (AAPL) in four years.
    The S&P 500 (SPX) was unchanged at 1,494.82, after rallying as much as 0.5 percent earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 46 points, or 0.3 percent, to 13,825.33. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) slid 1.4 percent to 2,723.53. More than 6.8 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 10 percent above the three-month average.

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 28th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1.3195 – 1.3080
Target 1 : 1.3400
Target 2 : 1.4245
Stop : < 1.2995

Comments
On Friday the possible upside triangle break scenario that was identified on that morning’s analysis took place. The next target is some distance away at 1.4245. We are monitoring the price action so as to identify the next possible buying opportunity.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 28h January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
GBPUSD continues to trade at its lows. We are monitoring the price action for a possible selling opportunity.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 28th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 1661.10 – 1640.80
Target 1 : 1696.40
Target 2 : 1723.30
Stop : <1625.80

Comments
As posted previously “Gold has traded down to a level just above Fibonacci support. We are monitoring the price action for a possible rotation back to the long side”.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 28th January 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.00 – 87.70
Target 1 : 96.85
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : <85.20

Comments
As previously posted “The 8 period moving as on previous occasions offered Oil support. We are monitoring the price action for a possible continued up move or a break of moving average support and for Oil to trade back to Fibonacci support”.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Yesterday we pointed out that the GBPUSD seems to be holding at the support level of 1.5748 but price could see further down if it happens to break below the support level. Today however, price broke the support level plunging further down as expected. Price is expected to go further bearish.


yesterday in our market analysis, we pointed out that traders should watch out the support level of 1.0395 for a possible price action signal for a buy. We can see today that the daily candle closed as a pin bar off the support level and this could see price move bullish towards a resistance level of 1.05**.


In our market analysis last week, we discussed the breakout that occurred on the daily chart of GBPCHF. the chart above is a recap to see how the breakout signal has played out since then. on Friday, the daily candle closed as a pin bar like candle but we had today’s bearish candle break and close below the pin bar signaling a further bearish move in coming days.


The EURNZD formed a classic pin bar setup off a major resistance level on the daily chart. we could see a 50% pull back on the pin bar before the expected bearish move comes.

SwanForex Group