USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance in recent trading sessions, as it advanced to the commodity currencies but retreated to the yen and European currencies. There were no major reports out of the US then, leaving the Greenback to function as a counter currency. For today the ADP non-farm employment change is due, along with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
EUR
The euro was able to advance against the dollar but weakened to the yen, even as employment data from Germany and Spain came in stronger than expected. Spain’s unemployment increased less than expected while Germany reported a drop in joblessness of 20K. Final services PMI readings are due from the euro zone’s top economies today.
GBP
The pound shrugged off weaker than expected construction PMI as it rallied against its forex counterparts. The report showed a drop from 57.8 to 55.0, worse than the projected fall to 57.6. For today, the services PMI is due and a dip from 55.5 to 55.4 is eyed.
CHF
The franc regained a bit of ground when SNB Thomas Jordan gave his testimony, as the central bank head refrained from jawboning the currency. Data from Switzerland was still weaker than expected, with retail sales down by an annualized 1.6% versus the estimated 1.3% decline. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen got back on its feet when risk aversion returned during the US trading session. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday while today had the BOJ meeting minutes released. BOJ Kuroda also has a testimony lined up and this might spur additional volatility among yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up their recent wins when oil supply concerns dominated the headlines again. The API report showed an increase of 3.387 million barrels of crude oil while other energy supplies also piled up. In New Zealand, the dairy auction showed a 7.4% slump in dairy prices while the employment report printed strong headline figures. Underlying data, however, revealed weaker labor force participation. In Australia, building approvals beat expectations but the trade balance came in short. Crude oil inventories from the EIA are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff during the New York session as data came in mixed and Fed official Dudley said that the currency’s appreciation might be damaging to the economy. The ADP non-farm employment change report indicated a larger than expected gain of 205K versus the projected 193K gain while the previous reading was upgraded from 257K to 267K. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell from 55.3 to 53.5, worse than the estimated dip to 55.1, and most of the components reflected declines.
EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but was still lower against its higher-yielding counterparts. Some of the euro zone services PMI readings from top economies saw downgrades and the region’s retail sales figure came in short of expectations with a meager 0.3% gain. There are no major reports due from the region today but ECB head Draghi has a testimony lined up.
GBP
The pound could be in for a lot of volatility with the BOE statement coming up. Along with this is the release of the BOE Inflation Report, which contains their revised forecasts for growth and inflation, and the MPC minutes which would show the policymakers’ biases. Dovish remarks echoing Carney’s previous downbeat statements could mean more losses for the UK currency.
CHF
The franc advanced to the dollar but consolidated against most of its other currency peers.There were no reports out of Switzerland then and today has the SECO consumer climate index lined up. The reading is expected to improve from -18 to -15, indicating a lower level of pessimism.
JPY
The yen gave up some of its recent gains when risk appetite picked up and traders moved out of their long dollar holdings onto yen positions. There were no reports out of Japan then and there were no surprises from Kuroda’s testimony. There are still no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls enjoyed a strong rally in recent sessions when oil prices bounced on speculations of an OPEC meeting. Reports showed that six nations are urging for a special meeting this month to discuss production cuts, which might then keep prices supported. US crude oil inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels versus the projected 3.7 million gain. Earlier today, Australia’s NAB business climate index rose from 1 to 4. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar suffered another sharp selloff in yesterday’s New York session when data from the economy came in below expectations. Initial jobless claims rose 285K versus the projected 279K increase while factory orders slumped 2.9%. Up ahead, the NFP is slated to show a 189K gain in hiring, weaker compared to the previous 292K increase but still likely enough to keep the jobless rate at 5.0%.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness and managed to post some gains against some of its peers as well. Euro zone growth forecasts were actually revised lower but it looks like this was already priced in. German factory orders data is due today and a 0.3% decline is set to follow the previous 1.5% gain.
GBP
The pound was one of the weakest performers when the BOE Super Thursday was more dovish than expected. Policymakers voted unanimously to keep rates on hold, with McCafferty rejoining the doves and backing down from his previous calls to hike. The BOE Inflation Report also featured downgrades on growth and inflation. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc regained ground when the Swiss SECO consumer climate index improved from -18 to -14, slightly higher than the estimated climb to -15. The Swiss foreign currency reserves report is due today and a large increase could lead to speculations of currency intervention, which might then drive the franc much lower.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off flows yesterday, especially after the BOE reports came out. There were no reports lined up from Japan then while today has the leading indicators due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to carry on with their rallies, as oil prices posted more gains. Rumors that Turkey is gearing up to invade Syria could put additional downside pressure on supply, which could keep prices afloat. Australian retail sales came in flat instead of showing the estimated 0.5% gain for December. Canada’s jobs report is due next and a 5.2K gain in hiring is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar advanced against its forex rivals when the underlying data of the NFP release showed green shoots. The economy added only 151K jobs in January versus the projected 189K gain while the December reading was downgraded from 292K to 262K. Still, the unemployment rate fell to its nine-year low of 4.9% while the participation rate improved. Average earnings rose 0.5% versus the projected 0.3% forecast. No reports are due from the US today.
EUR
The euro gave up ground to the dollar and yen but was still strong against its other rivals, even though German factory orders missed expectations. The report indicated a 0.7% drop instead of the projected 0.3% dip. German industrial production and euro zone Sentix investor confidence numbers are due today.
GBP
The pound managed to limit its losses to the dollar but weakened to the commodity currencies. There were no reports out of the UK then and there are no reports due today.
CHF
The franc managed to stay steady against the dollar while advancing to the euro on Friday. Swiss foreign currency reserves actually fell to 575 billion CHF, indicating that the SNB isn’t intervening in the financial markets. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen was able to score gains against its higher-yielding counterparts but was no match to dollar strength. Japanese leading indicators fell from 103.5% to 102% to indicate potential weakness in the economy.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie lost a lot of ground to the dollar as retail sales fell flat instead of showing the estimated 0.3% gain while the RBA statement indicated scope for further easing. Chinese banks are on holiday today which suggests some consolidation for AUD and NZD pairs. In Canada, the jobs data missed expectations and showed a 5.7K decline in hiring versus the projected 5.2K increase.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground to the higher-yielders, except for the euro, franc, and yen. Risk aversion allowed the safe-haven currency to get back on its feet even though there were no major reports released. JOLTS job openings and wholesale inventories data are due today.
EUR
The euro advanced to the dollar and comdolls but lost ground to the yen and franc. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence slipped from 9.6 to 6.0, worse than the projected drop to 7.2. German industrial production and trade balance are due today, with weak data likely to weigh on the shared currency’s gains.
GBP
The pound was one of the weakest performers of the bunch as there were no reports to keep it supported. UK BRC retail sales monitor data showed a 2.6% rebound but was still unable to give the currency a boost. UK trade balance and a speech by MPC member Cunliffe are lined up today.
CHF
The franc resumed its rally from last week, as the SNB foreign currency reserves showed no evidence of intervention. Swiss unemployment rate is due today and a rise from 3.4% to 3.5% is eyed, likely to push the franc a bit lower.
JPY
The yen was one of the biggest winners, as it advanced against its currency rivals thanks to risk-off moves. Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected but traders appeared to prefer the Japanese currency against its other safe-haven peer, the US dollar. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up a lot of losses at the start of the week, even as the absence of Chinese traders kept markets in the green during the Asian session. The meeting between Venezuela and small oil-producing nations failed to bear fruit, weighing on oil prices again. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index held steady at 2, not showing any improvement.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was in a weaker spot yesterday even as it put up a fight against the comdolls. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with JOLTS job openings showing a gain and the NFIP small business index declining. Fed head Yellen’s speech might be a strong catalyst for directional plays today as traders are waiting to hear more clues on whether a March hike is possible or not.
EUR
The euro chalked up strong gains against its peers and even rebounded against the Japanese yen. Data from the euro zone was actually weaker than expected as the German industrial production report indicated a 1.2% decline instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. French and Italian industrial production numbers are due today.
GBP
The pound managed to hold steady against the dollar and yen while racking up some gains against the comdolls. Today has the manufacturing and industrial production reports on tap and weak readings might be in the cards given how the previous reports turned out. UK manufacturing production is expected to have stayed flat in December.
CHF
The franc carried on with its advance against the dollar and euro, as the Swiss jobless rate held steady at 3.4% instead of rising to the estimated 3.5% figure. There are no reports up for release from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The Japanese yen lost a bit of ground when risk appetite improved early yesterday but managed to get back on its feet later on. Data from Japan has been weaker than expected, with producer prices down 3.1% versus the projected 2.8% fall.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie ignored another buildup in oil stockpiles as it tried to hold on to its current levels. US crude oil inventories data is due today and an increase of 3.1 million barrels is eyed, likely to weigh on prices again. In Australia, the Westpac consumer sentiment report showed a 4.2% gain while HIA new home sales jumped 6.0%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a volatile day as it initially reacted positively to Yellen’s remarks but eventually returned its recent gains. According to Yellen, the equity market selloff might have a negative impact on overall growth and that they’d continue to watch the markets closely to see if any adjustments to their tightening path should be made. She also mentioned that she’s unsure if the Fed can legally implement negative deposit rates. Initial jobless claims and another testimony from Yellen are on today’s docket.
EUR
The euro was able to advance against most of its rivals except for the Japanese yen. Data from the euro zone was still mostly weaker than expected, as France and Italy printed negative industrial production readings. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound managed to make a quick bounce against most of its counterparts even though data from the UK missed expectations. Manufacturing production fell 0.2% instead of staying flat while industrial production sank 1.1% instead of falling by only 0.1%. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc continued to advance against most of its counterparts as it appears to be supported by risk-off flows. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the Swiss CPI on tap. A 0.3% decline in price levels is eyed and weak data might revive intervention speculations.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off market mood to chalk up more gains against its rivals. There were no reports out of Japan then and Japanese banks are closed for the holidays today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up some gains against the dollar but were no match to yen strength. US crude oil inventories showed a decline in stockpiles but did little to support prices as news of energy companies suffering losses dominated the headlines. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was unable to take a lot of advantage of the safe-haven flows yesterday as Fed Chairperson Yellen warned that central bank officials are watching exchange rates closely before making any monetary policy adjustments. This echoes FOMC member Dudley’s remarks indicating that dollar strength might actually be harmful for the US economy. For today, US retail sales reports are due and a 0.1% uptick in the headline figure is eyed while the core version of the report could show a flat reading.
EUR
The euro managed to hold on to some of its wins despite the slump in the European stock market, fueled by concerns about the banking sector and a possible Grexit. Up ahead, preliminary GDP readings from the euro zone and its top economies could serve as catalysts for strong euro moves.
GBP
The pound was still in a weak spot due to downbeat manufacturing production data released the previous day and the looming possibility of a Brexit. Only the construction output report is due from the UK today and another downbeat reading could spur more losses for the British currency.
CHF
The franc was able to chalk up some gains against the dollar but lost ground to the euro as currency intervention talk started to hit the airwaves. Although SNB officials have already maintained that the franc is overvalued, they’ve stopped short of actual intervention based on the latest foreign currency reserves data. Swiss CPI was weaker than expected with a 0.4% decline versus the projected 0.3% drop. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen surged against its forex rivals thanks to yet another round of risk aversion but quickly spiked when rumors of central bank intervention were spread. A Japanese official mentioned in an interview that they are watching FX movements closely and with urgency. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today, which suggests that risk sentiment could push yen pairs around again.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly unchanged to the dollar but ended weaker against the yen, as risk-off flows dominated. There were no major releases out of the comdoll economies, although news of an OPEC compromise appears to be lifting oil prices. OPEC leaders seem willing to cut production only if their non-OPEC counterparts also agree to do so, but Iran has previously stressed that they plan to increase production.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to rebound on Friday, thanks to upbeat retail sales figures and profit-taking off short positions ahead of the weekend. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% instead of just 0.1% while the core figure indicated a 0.1% uptick versus the projected flat reading. Import prices fell 1.1% versus the projected 1.4% slump while the UoM consumer sentiment index slipped from 92.0 to 90.7. US banks are closed for President’s Day today.
EUR
The euro returned some of its recent wins to its counterparts last Friday even as German and euro zone GDP readings came in line with expectations of 0.3% growth. Euro zone industrial production fell 1.0% instead of rising by the projected 0.3% figure. Euro zone trade balance is due today and a smaller surplus of 22.4 billion EUR is eyed compared to the previous 22.7 billion EUR surplus.
GBP
The pound managed to hold on to some of its recent wins despite weaker than expected UK quarterly construction output. The report showed a 1.5% increase versus the projected 2.0% gain but still chalked up a recovery from the previous 1.1% drop. Earlier today, UK Rightmove HPI showed a 2.9% gain in prices.
CHF
The franc got back on its feet at the end of the week on the lack of intervention talk from SNB officials. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could still advance if risk aversion stays in play.
JPY
The yen had another losing day as risk appetite improved and intervention fears weighed on the Japanese currency. Over the weekend, the preliminary GDP reading from Japan showed a 0.4% contraction versus the projected 0.3% reduction in growth. BOJ Governor Kuroda has a speech in parliament today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to advance against their lower-yielding peers thanks to stronger talks of an OPEC compromise. Earlier today, Chinese trade balance came in stronger than expected at a 406 billion CNY surplus versus the projected 389 billion CNY figure. New Zealand quarterly retail sales are due in the next Asian session and a 1.4% gain in the core figure is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The Greenback was mostly a counter currency in recent trading sessions, as US traders were off on a President’s Day holiday. Only the Empire State manufacturing index is up for release today and a rise from -19.4 to -10.5 is expected.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp drop when ECB head Draghi reiterated the possibility of additional ECB easing in March. He said that policymakers would study the impact of falling commodity prices on domestic inflation and the risks from the global financial turmoil. ZEW economic sentiment figures are up for release from Germany and the rest of euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was also sold off sharply after BOE member McCafferty admitted that negative rates could be a policy option for the central bank. Recall that McCafferty had previously been voting for rate hikes so his dovish tone represents a significant shift. UK CPI numbers are due today, with the headline figure expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core figure expected to dip from 1.4% to 1.3%.
CHF
The franc gave up some of its recent wins on talks of additional ECB easing, as traders are generally wary of SNB intervention in case that happens. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.
JPY
The yen was still in a weak spot as risk appetite resumed in the markets. Data from Japan was also mostly weaker than expected, with the GDP showing a 0.4% contraction for Q4 and the industrial production figure downgraded to show a sharper 1.4% decline. Tertiary industry activity fell 0.6% instead of posting the estimated 0.1% uptick.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie continued to advance on stronger hopes of an OPEC deal to cut production, as Russia is set to meet with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Qatar today. New Zealand’s retail sales report came in closely in line with expectations, as headline consumer spending rose 1.2% while core consumer spending climbed 1.4%. In Australia, the RBA minutes failed to push AUD pairs lower, as the accommodative stance is already priced in. Canada’s manufacturing sales and New Zealand’s dairy auction are lined up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a strong start when risk appetite waned in the earlier trading sessions. However, the currency returned some of its wins when data from the economy missed expectations. The Empire State manufacturing index improved from -19.4 to -16.6, short of the consensus at -10.5. US PPI, building permits, and industrial production numbers are due today but traders are likely to hold out for the FOMC minutes, which might contain a few more downbeat remarks.
EUR
The euro advanced against most of its peers when data came in stronger than expected. The German ZEW index fell from 10.2 to 1.0, higher than the projected 0.1 reading, while the euro zone ZEW index slid from 22.7 to 13.6 instead of dropping all the way down to 10.3. There are no major reports due from the region today.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp drop when UK CPI readings came in mixed. While the headline figure improved from 0.2% to 0.3% as expected, the core CPI fell from 1.4% to 1.2%, worse than the projected fall to 1.3%. UK jobs data is due today and a 2.9K increase in claimants is eyed, enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.1% to 5.0%. However, traders are likely to pay closer attention to the projected fall in the average earnings index from 2.0% to 1.9%.
CHF
The franc was mostly stuck in consolidation since there were no major reports due from the Swiss economy. Today has the ZEW economic expectations index on tap and an improvement from the previous -3.0 reading could mean gains for the franc.
JPY
The yen was able to score huge wins against its rivals but ended up giving back some when risk sentiment improved. Data from Japan came in weaker than expected again, with core machinery orders rising 4.2% y/y instead of the estimated 4.6% growth.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost ground when Russia and OPEC failed to secure a solid agreement to freeze production, as Saudi Arabia agreed to participate only if other oil-producing nations agree to do so. New Zealand reported another fall in dairy prices of 2.8%, marking its fourth consecutive decline. Quarterly PPI numbers are due from New Zealand next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a volatile run during the release of the FOMC minutes but was mostly unchanged against its counterparts, except for the commodity currencies. Fed officials highlighted the increased downside risks to growth and inflation but data released earlier in the day printed strong results, particularly for the PPI and industrial production figures. The Philly Fed index and initial jobless claims data are up for release today.
EUR
The euro gave up some ground in recent trading sessions as there were no major reports to keep it supported. Only the euro zone current account balance and ECB meeting minutes are up for release today, with dovish remarks from policymakers likely to weigh on the shared currency.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp selloff against its currency rivals even though the claimant count change came in better than expected. Joblessness fell by 14.8K versus the projected 2.9K decline while the previous reading enjoyed a positive revision. However, the jobless rate held steady at 5.1% while the average earnings index fell from 2.0% to 1.9% as expected.
CHF
The franc gave up more ground against its peers, as the Swiss ZEW economic expectations index slid from -3.0 to -5.9. The Swiss trade balance is due today and a wider surplus of 2.67 billion CHF compared to the earlier 2.54 billion CHF is expected. Also lined up are the Q3 and Q4 employment level data.
JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground to the commodity currencies when risk appetite improved. There were no reports out of Japan then but speculations of additional easing in their next policy statement continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian dollar continued to rally in hopes that a deal will be reached among oil producers soon. Iran has expressed support for the proposal to cap production but hasn’t committed to participating. Earlier today, New Zealand printed a 1.2% decline in PPI input prices and a 0.8% drop in PPI output prices. Australia reported a 7.9K drop in hiring and an increase in the jobless rate from 5.8% to 6.0%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar drew some support from upbeat CPI readings but was hardly able to recover against the comdolls. The headline CPI showed a flat reading instead of falling by the projected 0.1% figure while core CPI rose 0.3% versus the projected 0.2% uptick. US flash manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 52.4 to 52.3 is eyed.
EUR
The euro gave up ground to most of its forex counterparts as data from the region came in weak. The German PPI revealed a 0.7% drop in producer prices while the region’s consumer confidence index slipped from -6 to -9, worse than the projected fall to -7. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France are due today and signs of improvement could still keep the shared currency on its feet.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally towards the end of the week when UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that they drafted a deal with the EU. However, this is still up for referendum by June so the pound gapped lower against its counterparts on the increased uncertainty. UK retail sales beat expectations with a 2.3% gain but the previous reading suffered a sharp downgrade. Only the CBI industrial orders expectations data is due today.
CHF
The franc regained a bit of ground on Friday despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Today has the PPI report due and a 0.2% drop in producer price levels is eyed.
JPY
The yen regained ground on Friday as traders booked profits off the previous risk rallies. Earlier today, Japan printed a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI of 50.2, worse than the projected fall from 52.3 to 52.0. Risk flows and speculations of additional BOJ easing could continue to push yen pairs around today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to hold their ground in recent sessions since there were no weak reports to weigh them down. Canada’s readings came in mixed, with CPI figures printing stronger than expected results and retail sales missing expectations. New Zealand credit card spending rose 8.9%, following the previous 7.4% rise.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground against the commodity currencies and the yen but advanced to the euro and pound. The US flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, falling from 52.4 to 51.0, worse than the projected dip to 52.3. US existing home sales and CB consumer confidence data are up for release today and another round of downbeat data could spur more dollar weakness.
EUR
The euro was also in a weak spot as Brexit fears influenced demand for the shared currency. PMI readings from the euro zone also came in mostly weaker than expected, with only the French flash manufacturing PMI beating the consensus. The German Ifo business climate index is up for release today and a drop from 107.3 to 107.0 is eyed.
GBP
The pound was the weakest currency of the bunch as Brexit concerns brought more uncertainty. As it turns out, Cameron’s EU deal failed to draw support from his business advisory group and even the mayor of London himself. For today, the Inflation Report hearings are scheduled, although Brexit headlines might continue to influence pound price action.
CHF
The franc advanced to the euro but gave up ground to the dollar when Swiss data disappointed. The PPI showed a 0.4% fall in producer prices, worse than the projected 0.2% decline. SNB head Thomas Jordan is set to give a testimony today and jawboning might drive the franc lower.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the selloff among European currencies, as talks of an RRR cut in China also supported demand for the safe-haven Asian currency. Data was actually weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 52.3 to 50.2 versus the projected 52.0 figure.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls carried on with their strong rebound, particularly against European currencies. Data has been mixed, with New Zealand reporting an 8.9% jump in credit card spending and Australia showing a 0.2% drop in its CB leading index. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to recover against the higher-yielding currencies yesterday as risk-off flows were seen. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with the CB consumer confidence index falling from 97.8 to 92.2 versus the projected 97.4 figure and existing home sales rising to 5.47M, outpacing the consensus at 5.37M. US new home sales and crude oil inventories are up for release today.
EUR
The euro recovered against the comdolls but was still in a generally weak spot since data from the region missed expectations. Germany reported a drop in its Ifo business climate from 107.3 to 105.7, worse than the estimated fall to 107.0. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was still weighed down by Brexit fears but managed to pop slightly higher against commodity currencies. The BOE Inflation Report hearings simply reiterated what had already been said in the BOE statement and MPC minutes, although Carney clarified that they aren’t likely to lower rates below zero. Only the CBI realized sales index is due today.
CHF
The franc staged a strong rally after SNB head Thomas Jordan mentioned that it would be difficult for them to employ unconventional policy tools endlessly. Market watchers took this as a sign that the SNB isn’t likely to lower rates much deeper into negative territory even though the ECB is mulling further easing. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is due today.
JPY
The yen carried on with its climb, albeit at a slower pace than usual, as risk aversion weighed on the comdolls. There have been no major reports out of Japan, although the Brexit and crude oil concerns are working in the yen’s favor.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls weakened across the board when Iran’s oil minister pointed out that it would be unreasonable to expect them to cap production. Saudi’s oil minister also mentioned that they have no plans of cutting output while the API report indicated a buildup of 7.1 million barrels. The US crude oil inventories report is due today and an increase of 2.1 million barrels is eyed. Earlier today, Australia’s construction work done and wage price index both missed expectations.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was in a weak spot due to a pickup in risk appetite and weaker than expected US data. The flash services PMI fell from 53.2 to 49.8, its lowest reading in 28 months, versus the projected rise to 53.4. New home sales sank from 544K to 494K, worse than the estimated drop to 522K. Durable goods orders data and initial jobless claims are due today. Headline durable goods orders might show a 3.0% rebound while core durable goods orders could print a 0.2% uptick.
EUR
The euro struggled to regain ground, although it did manage to post some gains against its counterparts. There were no major reports out of the euro zone but Brexit fears in the region are weighing on the shared currency. Final CPI readings are due today and no revisions are expected.
GBP
The pound was still a big loser despite the risk rallies, as money flowed out of the UK on Brexit concerns. Data from the UK was also weaker than expected, with the CBI realized sales index falling from 16 to 10. The UK second GDP estimate is due today and no changes are expected from the 0.5% estimate.
CHF
The franc carried on with its climb as the preferred safe-haven in the European region, especially with EUR and GBP weakening. Also, the increase in the Swiss UBS consumption indicator from 1.61 to 1.66 spurred demand for the franc. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite returned to the markets. There were no reports out of Japan then and traders might also be booking profits ahead of the CPI releases on Friday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was a big beneficiary of the rebound in risk-taking spurred by crude oil rallies. The US oil inventories report showed a larger buildup of 3.1 million barrels versus the projected 2 million increase but this was still lower compared to the API figure of 7.1 million barrels. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals rebounded by 2.9%. Australia’s private capital expenditure data is due next and a 3.1% decline is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some ground to its higher-yielding peers as risk appetite improved yesterday. Data from the US came in mostly stronger than expected, with the headline durable goods orders showing a 4.9% rebound from the previous 3.0% decline and the core durable goods orders figure showing a 1.8% increase versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. Initial jobless claims landed at 272K as expected. US preliminary GDP is due today and a downgrade from 0.7% to 0.4% is eyed. Personal income and spending, along with the core PCE price index, are also lined up.
EUR
The euro tried to hold steady against the dollar and managed to advance against the yen while losing ground to commodity currencies. The final headline CPI for the euro zone was downgraded from 0.4% to 0.3% while the core CPI was unchanged at 1.0%. Preliminary CPI readings from France and Germany are due today, along with French consumer spending data.
GBP
The pound was still the biggest loser of the pack, as downbeat UK business investment data weighed on the currency. Even though the GDP reading was unchanged at 0.5%, the preliminary business investment report showed a 2.1% slide versus the projected 0.6% gain. There are no reports due from the UK today but BOE Governor Carney has a testimony scheduled.
CHF
The franc managed to hold on to its gains, thanks to European traders seeking other safe-haven alternatives in the region. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and SNB head Jordan’s recent remarks suggesting a lower likelihood of more negative deposit rates is keeping the currency supported.
JPY
The yen returned some of its latest wins when risk sentiment improved and Japanese CPI readings were released. Tokyo showed a 0.1% drop in core price levels while the national level printed a flat reading. No other reports are due from Japan today, which suggests that sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls ignored the slump in Chinese equities in the earlier part of the day, focusing on the rebound in oil later on. Reports that OPEC and non-OPEC nations have another meeting in March kept hopes up that a deal to cap production will be made. New Zealand’s trade balance showed a surplus of 8 million NZD versus expectations of a 250 million NZD deficit.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a strong run on Friday, thanks to an upbeat GDP release. The preliminary reading showed an upward revision from 0.7% to 1.0% instead of being downgraded to 0.4% as expected. Personal spending and income both ticked up by 0.5%. For today, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales reports are due.
EUR
The euro broke lower to the dollar but managed to advance against most of its comdoll peers when risk aversion stayed in play. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, with German preliminary CPI missing expectations of a 0.6% gain and coming in at 0.4%. Both the French and Spanish preliminary CPI readings also fell short while the French consumer spending report came in line with estimates of a 0.6% increase. German retail sales and euro zone CPI estimates are due today.
GBP
The pound resumed its slide as IMF head Lagarde warned of the repercussions of a Brexit. There were no major reports out of the UK on Friday, leaving investors to price in potential financial and economic uncertainty. UK net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are due next.
CHF
The franc managed to advance against the euro but lost ground to the dollar on Friday. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has the KOF economic barometer on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 100.3 to 99.1, which might spur franc weakness.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off flows last Friday, although its gains were still limited. Data from Japan came in mixed, with the Tokyo core CPI and BOJ core CPI missing expectations and the national core CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected. Earlier today, Japan printed a 0.1% drop in retail sales and a 3.7% jump in preliminary industrial production.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi and Aussie slumped against their peers when risk aversion kicked in but the Loonie managed to hold on to its wins in anticipation of a deal to cap oil production. New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence index dropped from 23.0 to 7.1 while building consents fell 8.9%. In Australia, company operating profits fell 2.8% versus the projected 1.7% drop. The Canadian current account balance is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar wasn’t able to establish a clear direction in recent sessions, as it simply reacted to other currencies’ price action. Data from the US economy came in mostly weaker than expected, as the Chicago PMI fell from 55.6 to 47.6 while the pending home sales report printed a sharp 2.5% drop. For today, the US ISM manufacturing PMI is due and a rise from 48.2 to 48.5 is eyed.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp tumble in recent sessions when the euro zone flash CPI readings missed expectations. The headline figure showed a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated flat reading while the core figure fell from 1.0% to 0.7%. Final PMI readings from the top economies are due today, along with the German unemployment change and euro zone unemployment rate.
GBP
The pound managed a quick bounce in recent trading, as traders likely booked profits off their previous short positions when UK medium-tier reports came in line with expectations. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 52.9 to 52.3 is eyed.
CHF
The franc advanced against its forex counterparts when the Swiss KOF economic barometer beat expectations. The reading rose from an upgraded 100.4 figure to 102.4 instead of dipping to the projected 99.1 reading. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 1.2% decline is eyed, a slight improvement from the previous 1.6% drop.
JPY
The yen continued to gain ground against its forex rivals as risk aversion was in play during the Asian session. Data from Japan was mixed, with retail sales down 0.1% and preliminary industrial production up by 3.7%. Household spending slumped 3.1% while the unemployment rate dipped from 3.3% to 3.2%.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation ahead of this week’s top-tier data. Reports from China fell short, as the official and Caixin PMI readings indicated a slower pace of growth in the services sector and a sharper contraction in the manufacturing industry. The RBA statement is up next and no rate changes are expected. As for New Zealand, the GDT auction could show if another fall in dairy prices was recorded.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some of its wins when risk appetite improved in the market. Data from the US economy was actually stronger than expected, as the ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 48.2 to 49.5, outpacing the consensus at 48.5. The ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and a 185K increase in hiring is expected, slower than the previous 205K gain.
EUR
The euro advanced against the dollar and yen but was no match to comdoll strength. Data from the region was mostly in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate improving from 10.4% to 10.3%. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is due today and a 0.2% increase in joblessness is expected.
GBP
The pound bounced back against the lower-yielding currencies but gave up ground to commodity currencies as risk appetite returned to the markets. Data from the UK was weaker than expected, as the manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 50.8, worse than the projected drop to 52.3. The construction PMI is due today and an improvement from 55.0 to 55.5 is eyed.
CHF
The franc returned some of its recent gains even when data from Switzerland came in stronger than expected. Retail sales ticked up 0.2% versus the projected 1.2% drop while the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 to 51.6 instead of dropping to the estimated 49.6 figure. Swiss GDP data is due today and a 0.2% expansion is expected.
JPY
The yen was in a very weak spot when risk appetite returned yesterday. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and there are still no reports due today, leaving market sentiment in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls scored big wins against their forex counterparts when data came in strong and risk appetite returned. Canada’s GDP showed a 0.2% expansion for December, higher than the projected 0.1% uptick, and New Zealand’s GDT auction showed a 1.2% rebound in prices. Earlier today, Australia reported a 0.6% GDP reading for Q4 2015 while the previous figure was upgraded from 0.9% to 1.1%. Crude oil inventories data are due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way