USD
The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains when the FOMC minutes showed that the central bank is in no rush to hike interest rates. Most policymakers judged that it would be prudent to accumulate more data before tightening. Ahead of this, Fed member Bullard said that he prefers to see evidence of stronger growth before voting to adjust policy and that he only sees one hike over the next two years. US initial jobless claims and Philly Fed index are due today.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was unable to gain much ground against its other counterparts. There were no economic reports from the euro zone yesterday while today has the current account balance and final CPI readings due.
GBP
The pound had a volatile time when it saw mixed results from the UK jobs release. July claimant count dropped by 8.6K versus the projected 5.2K rise while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% as expected. The average earnings index rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, short of the estimated 2.5% figure.
CHF
The franc also took advantage of dollar weakness but was unable to rally much further since its ZEW economic expectations index fell from 5.9 to -2.8 to reflect pessimism. There are no reports from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen regained ground to the dollar and some of its forex counterparts despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan yesterday. Japan’s trade balance is up for release today and a smaller surplus of 0.14T JPY is eyed from the earlier 0.33T JPY surplus.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the post-FOMC minutes dollar weakness but the rallies were limited. Crude oil recovered on a draw of 2.5 million barrels in US inventories after a slump when Saudi signaled that it can raise production to record levels. Australian jobs data is due next and a 10.2K rise in hiring is eyed.*
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was still mostly weaker against its peers and hawkish remarks from Fed officials weren’t enough to spur gains. Reports such as initial jobless claims and Philly Fed index were also better than expected but forex traders still seem to be factoring in the implications of the July FOMC meeting minutes on rate hike odds. There are no reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness and recover against the commodity currencies. Final CPI readings were in line with expectations while the ECB meeting minutes were not as dovish as many expected. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was able to enjoy another leg higher when the UK retail sales report beat expectations. Analysts were only expecting to see a 0.1% uptick but the report printed a 1.4% jump, suggesting that consumer spending didn’t take such a huge hit after the EU referendum. UK public sector net borrowing data is due today.
CHF
The franc continued to advance to the dollar and the European currencies even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday. There are still no reports due today so market sentiment could be the main price driver.
JPY
The yen held on to its recent gains as risk-taking appeared to fade in recent sessions. Japan’s trade balance also beat expectations with a 0.32T JPY surplus versus the projected 0.14T JPY figure. For today, the all industries activity index is due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Comdolls were mostly weaker for the day even though Australia printed an upbeat jobs report. The economy added 26.2K jobs in July, higher than the projected 10.2K reading, while the June reading enjoyed an upgrade from 7.9K to 10.8K. Canada’s CPI and retail sales figures are lined up for today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to regain ground against its peers on Friday, despite the lack of top-tier data from the US economy. Risk aversion appears to have supported the safe-haven currency as reports of the Brexit process being triggered in April next year and downbeat data from Canada reminded traders that the US economy is still one of the more stable ones. There are no major reports due from the US today.
EUR
The euro gave up a bit of ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to some of its wins against the commodity currencies. German PPI came in better than expected on Friday with a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.1% rise. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp selloff when UK PM Theresa May suggested that Article 50 could be invoked by April next year, which would mean that the Brexit process would start by then. Data from the UK economy was weaker than expected as public sector net borrowing printed a 1.5 billion GBP deficit. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc returned some of its recent wins to the dollar as there were no major reports to boost the Swiss currency on Friday. There are still no reports lined up from Switzerland today so market sentiment could be the driver of price action.
JPY
The yen gapped down against its forex counterparts over the weekend after BOJ Governor Kuroda hinted that they could lower negative interest rates further. These gaps appear to have gotten closed already but traders could be reluctant to buy the yen in anticipation of additional BOJ easing.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was still one of the worst performers for the day as potential rating downgrades and a slowdown in China’s property prices weighed on Australia’s outlook. Data from Canada came in weaker than expected as core CPI was flat while headline CPI fell 0.2%. Headline retail sales dropped 0.1% while core retail sales sank 0.8%. Canada’s wholesale sales report is due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as there were no major reports on deck. Today has the new home sales report and the Richmond manufacturing index on tap, although traders might be less sensitive to data as they stay on the lookout for more clues on how Yellen’s Jackson Hole testimony might turn out.
EUR
The euro advanced against most of its counterparts even though there were no major releases. Traders must be positioning ahead of today’s PMI reports, which are slated to show improvements in the manufacturing and services sectors of France and Germany. Stronger than expected data could reassure market watchers that the region was able to hold its ground even after the Brexit vote.
GBP
The pound recovered from Friday’s slump as UK PM May has yet to confirm whether or not they would trigger Article 50 earlier than initially stated. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the CBI industrial order expectations report on tap.
CHF
The franc tossed and turned without establishing much direction since there were no major market reports released. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today but the franc could take its cue from the euro zone reports.
JPY
The yen filled the weekend gaps quickly as traders didn’t get much follow-through from Kuroda’s dovish remarks over the weekend. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday while today has the flash manufacturing PMI on tap and another testimony by Kuroda.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie gave up a lot of ground as crude oil prices settled lower on the expiration of September contracts. Meanwhile, the Kiwi enjoyed a boost after RBNZ head Wheeler said that rapid rate cuts could do more harm than good. In Australia, the CB leading index posted a meager 0.1% uptick. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was mostly stronger in recent trading, except against the British pound. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 52.9 while the Richmond manufacturing index dropped from +10 to -11. New home sales printed a higher than expected 654K figure for July but the previous reading was downgraded. US existing home sales and crude oil inventories are due today.
EUR
The euro slumped across the board when flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France mostly fell short of estimates. French flash manufacturing PMI fell from 48.6 to 48.5 but services PMI was up from 50.5 to 52.0. German flash manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 53.6 while services PMI dropped from 54.4 to 53.3. Germany’s final GDP reading is due today and a downgrade from 0.4% to 0.3% is eyed.
GBP
The pound continued to climb against its peers, boosted by slightly stronger than expected data and no confirmation from the UK government on whether they’ll invoke Article 50 earlier than expected or not. The CBI industrial order expectations index dipped from -4 to -5, better than the projected fall to -9 but still indicative of a faster pace of contraction. BBA mortgage approvals data is due today and a decline from 40.1K to 38.5 is eyed.
CHF
The franc lost ground to the dollar and the pound but was able to take advantage of euro weakness. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so the franc could keep reacting to currency-specific events.
JPY
The yen advanced to the comdolls but weakened to the dollar and pound. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 49.6, better than the projected 49.5 figure. There are no major reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the primary driver of yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their slide as data came in below expectations. New Zealand reported a wider than expected trade deficit due to weaker imports and exports while Australia printed a 3.7% slump in quarterly construction work done versus the projected 1.9% drop. A draw of 0.5 million barrels in US crude oil inventories is expected, which might give the Loonie a boost.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar advanced against most of its forex peers despite downbeat housing data, as traders seem to be reacting to market sentiment. US equities closed lower for the day, weighed by declines in the drugmaker industry. US durable goods orders, flash services PMI, and initial jobless claims are lined up today. Headline durable goods orders could rebound by 3.4% while core durable goods orders could be up by 0.4%.
EUR
The euro slid lower across the board despite stronger than expected German final GDP. The earthquake in Central Italy has weighed heavily on sentiment in the region, causing traders to shrug off the data. For today, the German Ifo business climate index is due and a rise from 108.3 to 108.5 is expected.
GBP
The pound carried on with unwinding its post-Brexit losses as traders adjusted their biases after last week’s upbeat set of U.K. data. BBA mortgage approvals were actually weaker than expected at 37.7K. For today, the CBI realized sales index is due and a rise from -14 to -5 is eyed.
CHF
The franc gave up more ground to the dollar and pound, as there were no reports to give the Swiss currency a boost. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc could simply act as a counter currency.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off vibes but gave up ground to the dollar and pound. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could still be the main driver of price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls slid lower on weaker commodity prices and a slowdown in risk-taking. Data from Australia was weaker than expected with a 3.7% slump in construction work done for Q2. US crude oil inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels versus the projected draw of 0.5 million barrels. Fonterra upgraded milk price forecasts for this year and the next, keeping the Kiwi supported. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar continued to rake in gains earlier in the day but wound up retreating on profit-taking. Data from the US economy was mostly stronger than expected as the durable goods orders figures saw strong gains while the initial jobless claims figure was slightly lower than consensus. The flash services PMI, on the other hand, turned out to be a disappointment when it showed a slower pace of industry growth. For today, the main event risk is Yellen’s Jackson Hole testimony which might set the tone for Fed rate hike expectations. Apart from that, the US preliminary GDP reading and revised UoM consumer sentiment figures are due.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers as the death toll from the earthquake in Central Italy continued to rise. Germany’s Ifo business climate index was weaker than expected as it slid from 108.3 to 106.2 instead of improving to 108.5. The GfK consumer climate index is due today and a rise from 10.0 to 10.2 is eyed.
GBP
The pound gave up ground despite stronger than expected CBI realized sales data. The reading rose from -14 to +9 to reflect a return to growth, higher than the estimated rise to -5. The UK second GDP estimate is due today and no change from the initially reported 0.6% growth figure is eyed.
CHF
The franc failed to establish a strong direction in recent trading as there were no top-tier reports from Switzerland. There are still no major reports lined up today so risk sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
Yen pairs were mostly stuck in their tight ranges as traders continued to sit on their hands and wait for more economic clues. Inflation readings from Japan and Tokyo both printed weaker than expected results, reviving talks of additional BOJ easing in their next meeting.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker once more as risk aversion weighed on higher-yielders. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday and none are due today, although large moves could be seen if risk sentiment is stronger after Yellen’s testimony.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar enjoyed a strong boost on Friday when Fed Chairperson Yellen made her speech and confirmed that a rate hike could still be in play before the end of the year. These remarks were echoed by Fed official Fischer, reminding market participants that a number of FOMC policymakers support the case for tightening soon. The core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income reports, are up for release today.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp selloff to the dollar but managed to advance against its other rivals. Germany’s GfK consumer climate reading came in line with expectations at 10.2, up from the earlier 10.0 reading. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound managed to put up a strong fight against its peers but gave up some ground to the dollar after Yellen’s speech. The preliminary UK GDP reading was unchanged at 0.6% while preliminary business investment showed a strong 0.5% rebound instead of the estimated 0.9% drop. UK banks are closed for the holiday today.
CHF
The franc slid against the dollar and its European counterparts as there were no reports to prop it up last Friday. There are still no major reports lined up from Switzerland today so the franc could take its cue from risk sentiment or simply consolidate.
JPY
The yen was in a weak spot after traders moved their safe-haven holdings to the dollar in anticipation of a rate hike before the end of the year. Also, traders are still reeling from BOJ Governor Kuroda’s hints about further easing earlier in the week, on top of weaker CPI readings from Japan. Japanese household spending and retail sales figures are due in the next Asian session.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up big losses to the dollar on risk-off flows. There were no reports out of their economies then but traders couldn’t help but price in the impact of higher US rates on business investment, consumer spending, and demand for raw materials. There are still no major reports lined up today so the comdolls could move on risk sentiment.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar retreated as traders booked profits off their recent long positions after Yellen’s Jackson Hole testimony. Data from the US came in line with expectations, with the core PCE price index posting a feeble 0.1% uptick. Personal income and spending data from June enjoyed a small upgrade, still keeping rate hike expectations in play. US CB consumer confidence is due today and a dip from 97.3 to 97.2 is eyed.
[B]EUR
[/B]
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was slightly weaker against its other counterparts. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has flash CPI readings from Germany and Spain, along with import prices data from Germany.*
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound made a quick bounce to the dollar but retreated against its other peers. UK banks were closed for the holiday and are set to reopen today ahead of the release of net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data. Stronger than expected UK reports could reassure traders that the economy didn’t fare so poorly after the Brexit vote.
[B]
CHF[/B]
The franc moved mostly sideways in recent trading since there have been no major reports out of Switzerland this week. The Swiss KOF economic barometer is due today and a drop from 102.7 to 102.2 is expected, possibly keeping a lid on the currency’s gains.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen regained some ground despite BOJ Governor Kuroda’s easing hints during the Jackson Hole Symposium. Data from Japan beat expectations, as household spending and retail sales saw smaller than expected declines. The unemployment rate also improved from 3.1% to 3.0%.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls rallied then quickly reversed as risk aversion returned to the markets. Data from Australia came in better than expected with building approvals up 11.3% instead of staying flat. Canadian current account balance and underlying inflation reports are due today.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its forex rivals in recent trading as data beat expectations. The CB consumer confidence index rose from 96.7 to 101.1 in August to reflect stronger optimism and hint at higher spending down the line. The ADP report is due today and a 174K increase in hiring is expected for August, slower than the earlier 179K gain. Chicago PMI and pending home sales are also up for release.
EUR
The euro was weaker against the dollar and comdolls but managed to advance against the yen. Data from the region was mixed, as Germany’s preliminary CPI was flat while Spain reported a smaller than expected 0.1% dip in price levels. German import prices posted a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.1% drop. German retail sales and unemployment change data are lined up today ahead of the region’s flash CPI readings, with downbeat results likely to revive additional ECB easing expectations.
GBP
The pound was able to stay resilient against the dollar, despite weaker than expected UK data. Net lending to individuals fell from 5.1 billion GBP to 3.8 billion GBP while mortgage approvals slid from 64K to 61K. Only the UK Nationwide HPI is up for release today and a 0.1% decline is expected.
CHF
The franc lost ground to the dollar and its European counterparts as the KOF economic barometer dropped from 103.5 to 99.8 versus the projected 102.2 reading. For today, the UBS consumption indicator is lined up and a reading below the earlier 1.34 figure could mean more losses.
JPY
The yen was the weakest performer in the bunch as traders continued pricing in expectations of aggressive stimulus from the BOJ. Japan’s preliminary industrial production showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.7% gain. Housing starts data is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost ground to the dollar but managed to advance against the euro and yen. Data from Canada was mixed, but the downbeat current account deficit reflected much weaker export activity and is weighing on monthly GDP expectations for today. Underlying inflation data such as IPPI and RMPI reflected weaker price pressures as well. In New Zealand, the ANZ business confidence index fell from 16.0 to 15.5. Crude oil inventories data is also lined up and a buildup of 1.1 million barrels is eyed, likely weighing on the commodity price once more.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar slowed down from its climb after data came in mixed. The ADP report printed a 177K increase in hiring for August, higher than the projected 174K figure. The July figure was upgraded to show a 194K increase from the initially reported 179K gain. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI showed a sharper than expected drop to 51.5 to show a slowdown in industry growth. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 52.6 to 52.0 is expected, with the jobs component likely having a stronger say in USD price action.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker after data from the euro zone missed expectations. The region’s flash headline CPI stood at 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% figure while the core figure came in at 0.8% versus the projected 0.9% increase, keeping expectations up for additional ECB easing. German retail sales and unemployment change data beat expectations but French consumer spending and CPI fell short. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due today.
GBP
The pound continued to put up a fight against its counterparts as the UK Nationwide HPI printed a stronger than expected 0.6% gain instead of the projected 0.1% dip. For today, the UK manufacturing PMI is due and a rise from 48.2 to 49.1 is expected. Stronger than expected data could lead to a fresh boost for the pound since this would reassure traders that the economy is stable even after the Brexit vote.
CHF
The franc gave up a lot of ground to its European counterparts and the dollar even as the UBS consumption indicator came in at 1.32. As it turns out, the previous reading suffered a sharp downward revision, suggesting that the economic situation wasn’t as rosy as it seemed. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI are lined up for today.
JPY
The yen continued to sink across the board after Japan printed yet another downbeat report. Capital spending came in at 3.1% for the quarter, lower than the projected 5.6% reading and the previous 4.2% figure. The final manufacturing PMI was also downgraded from 49.6 to 49.5.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Canada printed a stronger than expected 0.6% monthly GDP figure for June, but the quarterly GDP amounted to a 1.6% contraction compared to the earlier 2.5% growth. Crude oil also sank after the US oil inventories report showed a larger than expected buildup of 2.3 million barrels. In Australia, private capital expenditure slipped 5.4% for Q2 versus the projected 4.0% drop while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 50.4 but the Caixin version fell from 50.6 to 50.0.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up a lot of ground in the previous US session when the ISM manufacturing PMI printed dismal results. The reading slipped from 52.6 to 49.4 to indicate industry contraction, lower than the estimated fall to 52.0. The jobs component showed a sharper contraction, signaling that the NFP might fall short of estimates. Analysts are expecting to see a 180K gain in hiring, lower than the previous 255K increase, but an upbeat figure could keep rate hike expectations in play.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up ground to the pound. Final manufacturing PMI readings were mostly in line with expectations and no major revisions were made. Only the euro zone PPI is due today and a 0.1% uptick in producer prices is eyed, lower than the earlier 0.7% gain.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally when the UK manufacturing PMI beat expectations, reminding traders that the economy is doing well despite the Brexit vote. The reading jumped from 48.3 to 53.3 to indicate a return to industry growth, outpacing the projected rise to 49.1. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was able to get a boost from stronger than expected Swiss retail sales. The report showed a 2.2% year-over-year decline, smaller than the projected 3.1% slump and the previous 3.5% drop. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen continued to fall across the board as BOJ easing expectations continued to weigh on the Japanese currency. Japan’s consumer confidence index is due next and an improvement from 41.3 to 41.6 is expected, although a weak read could revive expectations of slower spending down the line.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to take advantage of the dollar selloff, as the weak leading employment indicators could weigh on Fed rate hike odds. Also, China’s official manufacturing PMI beat expectations and showed a return to industry growth. Canada’s trade balance and labor productivity data are due today, with the former expected to show a smaller deficit of 3.2 billion CAD from the earlier 3.6 billion CAD shortfall.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned a lot of its recent gains to its counterparts when the NFP reading turned out weaker than expected. The economy added 151K jobs in August, lower than the projected 180K figure, but the previous reading was upgraded from 255K to 275K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% instead of improving to the estimated 4.8% reading while average hourly earnings indicated a 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.2% gain. US banks are closed for the holiday today.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but weakened against most of its other counterparts even when euro zone data came in line with expectations. The Spanish unemployment change figure came in at 14.4K while PPI rose 0.1%. Final services PMI readings are due today, along with the region’s Sentix investor confidence index.
GBP
The pound was able to rake in more gains at the end of the week after the UK construction PMI also showed stronger than expected results. The reading rose from 45.9 to 49.2 to show a slower pace of industry contraction versus the projected rise to 46.6. The services PMI is due today and a rise from 47.4 to 49.1 is eyed, although another upside surprise might be seen.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar and euro weakness but was no match to pound strength. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, which suggests that the franc could keep taking its cue from risk sentiment.
JPY
The yen capped off the week with a continued losing streak as dovish BOJ sentiment kept dragging the currency down. Japan’s consumer confidence index rose from 41.3 to 42.0, better than the projected 41.6 figure. Average cash earnings rose 1.4% year-over-year versus the estimated 0.5% gain. BOJ Governor Kuroda has a testimony lined up and more downbeat remarks could keep a lid on the yen’s gains.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to benefit from the selloff in the dollar, as lower odds of a Fed hike in September brought a bit of risk appetite back to the table. Canada’s trade balance and quarterly labor productivity data also beat expectations. Medium-tier reports from Australia such as the MI inflation gauge, quarterly company operating profits, and ANZ job advertisements are due while New Zealand has its ANZ commodity prices report on the docket. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar barely made any headway on Monday as US traders were off enjoying the Labor Day holiday. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 55.5 to 55.4 is expected, likely reflecting a slowdown in the jobs component as well. The US labor market conditions index is also lined up.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers as traders seem to be positioning for a dovish ECB statement. Final services PMI readings from its top economies and the region’s Sentix investor confidence index were in line with expectations. German factory orders, euro zone retail PMI and revised GDP figures are due today.
GBP
The pound was able to score some gains after the UK services PMI also beat expectations, following impressive readings from the manufacturing and construction sectors last week. The services PMI jumped from 47.4 to 52.9 as the weak pound attracted more tourists, which supports service sector activity. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc held its ground as there were no major market catalysts affecting market sentiment on Monday. SNB head Thomas Jordan has a speech lined up today and any remarks against franc strength could spur a selloff. Also lined up is the Swiss CPI which might show a 0.1% drop in price levels, slower than the earlier 0.4% decline.
JPY
The yen gave up a bit of ground against its peers as BOJ Governor Kuroda simply reiterated his previous dovish remarks and didn’t provide more details on additional stimulus. Japan’s average cash earnings also beat expectations, putting upside pressure on spending and inflation. Still, the yen resumed its slide in the Asian session as traders tried to sell the currency at better levels.*
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to score some gains as risk appetite appeared to improve ahead of the joint statement from Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, the countries simply announced that they agreed to form a working group to assess oil market movements, leading many to think that the OPEC informal meeting might be a dud as well. The RBA is set to make its policy statement today while New Zealand will have its dairy auction in the late US session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar resumed its slump when the ISM non-manufacturing report turned out weaker than expected. The index fell from 55.5 to 51.4 to show a slower pace of industry growth, lower than the estimated 55.4 reading. Also, the Fed’s labor market conditions index landed back in negative territory with a -0.7 figure versus the previous 1.1 reading For today, FOMC member Geroge has a testimony lined up ahead of the release of the JOLTS job openings.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was mostly weaker against its other counterparts. Medium-tier euro zone data came in line with expectations but it could be possible that traders are bracing for a potentially downbeat ECB statement later on this week. German industrial production and French trade balance numbers are due today.
GBP
The pound was able to go for more gains, except against the Japanese yen, despite the lack of top-tier UK data. Today has the manufacturing production report due and a 0.4% decline is eyed. Also lined up today is the BOE Inflation Report hearings, which could contain clues on the central bank’s policy bias.*
CHF
The franc was able to regain a bit of ground against the euro and pound while raking in more wins against the US dollar. SNB head Jordan refrained from currency jawboning as his speech mostly focused on education reform. Swiss foreign currency reserves data are due today and any sharp increase could still be indicative of currency intervention.
JPY
The yen was able to recover against its peers even though there were no major releases from Japan. According to a Sankei report, the odds of additional BOJ easing are slim since policymakers are still unable to establish a consensus position ahead of the actual policy statement later this month. Japan’s leading indicators report is due today and a decline from 98.2% to 98.6% is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was able to hold on to its gains after a brief dip following the weaker than expected Q2 GDP. The report showed a 0.5% expansion versus the projected 0.6% rise and the previous reading was downgraded from 1.1% to 1.0%. New Zealand reported a 7.7% rise in its GDT dairy index and a 2.2% rebound in manufacturing sales for Q2. The BOC statement is due next, along with Canada’s Ivey PMI.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
Dollar pairs relaxed in their ranges during the latest US session as medium-tier reports printed stronger than expected results. The JOLTS job openings report showed positive hiring momentum while the Beige Book acknowledged that several districts reported moderate gains in employment and wages. According to FOMC member George, the US economy is nearing full employment. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro consolidated against most of its peers ahead of today’s ECB interest rate decision, as many are expecting to see additional easing efforts. However, the euro’s reaction could hinge on how aggressive the central bank might be, as less dovish moves could still be accompanied by euro gains. In any case, additional volatility is expected around the time of the statement and press conference.
GBP
The pound slumped across the board as manufacturing production missed expectations and BOE Governor Carney admitted that he wouldn’t mind doling out more stimulus. Carney explained that there’s still a lot of uncertainty because of the Brexit, downplaying the recent improvements in the PMI readings. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc squeezed out a few more gains against the dollar and its European counterparts, as the SNB foreign currency reserves report didn’t indicate such a huge rise. The figure was up from 616 billion CHF to 627 billion CHF in August. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen continued to advance against its peers as traders reevaluated their short positions after a news agency reported that BOJ officials haven’t come to an agreement on whether they’d increase stimulus later this month or not. This threw cold water on BOJ Governor Kuroda’s dovish remarks earlier in the month, especially since data from Japan hasn’t been too bleak. The final GDP reading for Q2 was upgraded to show 0.2% growth from the initially reported flat reading.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls had a mixed performance, as the Kiwi was one of the best performers while the Loonie lagged. Even though the BOC refrained from cutting interest rates, the Canadian currency was notably weaker since the official statement sounded more cautious than usual. Earlier today, Australia reported a better than expected trade balance but was unable to make further headway when China released its August trade numbers. US crude oil inventories are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its peers when risk appetite weakened after the ECB statement. Data from the US came in better than expected at 259K versus the projected 264K reading while consumer credit rose to 17.7 billion USD. US wholesale sales data is due today, along with a speech by FOMC member Rosengren.
EUR
The euro rebounded strongly after the ECB refrained from adding stimulus and Governor Draghi sounded less dovish than expected. According to the central bank head, he doesn’t see the need for more easing just yet but that policymakers will continue to monitor the markets. The ECB even upgraded its growth forecast for the year and kept its inflation estimate unchanged. German and French trade balance are up for release today, along with the French industrial production report.
GBP
The pound had a mixed performance as it weakened to the dollar and euro but managed to advance against the commodity currencies as risk appetite weakened. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the goods trade balance, consumer inflation expectations, and construction output report due. Stronger than expected data could reinforce pound gains.
CHF
The franc stalled in its rally against the dollar and the euro despite the lack of top-tier reports from the Swiss economy. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the previous 3.3% figure is eyed.
JPY
The yen resumed its slide against most of its major counterparts despite the improvement in the country’s Economy Watchers Sentiment index from 45.1 to 45.6. Traders seem to be back to pricing in easing expectations from the BOJ or booking profits from the recent rallies.*
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up their recent wins when risk sentiment turned sour after the ECB refrained from easing. Data from Australia and China showed healthy trade activity, which could continue to keep the higher-yielding currencies supported later on. Also, the US crude oil inventories report showed a large draw in stockpiles. Data from Canada turned out weaker than expected but the Loonie could have a chance to recover if its jobs figures beat expectations today. The employment change report could show a 10.6K gain in hiring, rebounding from the earlier 31.2K drop.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar tossed and turned on Friday as traders tried to price in odds of a Fed rate hike for this month or December. There were no major reports out of the US economy then while today has only a speech by FOMC member Brainard lined up. Dovish remarks could continue to dampen September hike expectations while reassuring comments could keep December tightening in play.
EUR
The euro managed to regain ground against most of its peers towards the end of the week despite weaker than expected medium-tier data from the region. Germany’s trade balance and the French industrial production report both missed expectations. Only Italy’s quarterly unemployment rate is due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was still reeling from the BOE Inflation Report hearings at the end of the week as traders readjusted their biases for the BOE statement later this week. UK goods trade balance came in line with expectations at a deficit of 11.8 billion GBP compared to the earlier 12.9 billion GBP shortfall. The CB leading index is due today.
CHF
The franc gave up some of its recent gains on Friday when the Swiss jobless rate rose from 3.3% to 3.4% once more. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so franc pairs could hold steady ahead of the SNB decision later this week.
JPY
The yen sold off against its peers once more despite the tertiary industry activity index coming in line with expectations at 0.3%. Over the weekend, Japan reported a stronger than expected 4.9% rebound in core machinery orders. Preliminary machine tool orders data are due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker on Friday as risk aversion was in the markets. China printed a weaker than expected CPI of 1.3%, down from the earlier 1.8% figure, after Australia printed a 4.2% slump in home loans. Canada showed a larger than expected 26.2K gain in hiring versus the projected 16.0K gain but the jobless rate rose from 6.9% to 7.0%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned its recent wins when FOMC member Brainard expressed a stronger degree of caution in her testimony. She cited that there’s a need to exercise prudence before hiking and that she’d rather wait for stronger evidence of a rebound in consumer spending and inflation before voting to tighten. She also mentioned vulnerabilities to external risks from China and emerging economies, as well as Japan and Europe. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker in the latter trading sessions even though medium-tier data came in line with expectations. Today has the Italian industrial production and German final CPI readings due, although these might not have such a strong impact on the shared currency. Later on, ECB Governor Draghi has a speech lined up ahead of the release of the ZEW economic sentiment figures.*
GBP
The pound regained a bit of ground against its rivals as the UK CB leading index improved from -0.3% to 0.0%. Traders are also likely positioning for the UK CPI release today since the headline figure is slated to rise from 0.6% to 0.7% while the core figure could climb from 1.3% to 1.4%.
CHF
The franc was able to take advantage of dollar and euro weakness even as there were no releases from the Swiss economy. Today has the Swiss PPI due and a 0.2% drop in producer prices is eyed, although franc action might take its cue from top-tier euro zone data.
JPY
The yen regained ground against its peers after Japan’s BSI manufacturing index showed an impressive rise from -11.1 to +2.9 to show a return to industry growth. To top it off, dollar weakness drew traders back to the yen as a safe-haven alternative. There are no other reports due from Japan today but risk appetite could influence yen movements.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness and were able to hold on to their gains after Chinese data came in slightly better than expected. Industrial production is up from 6.0% to 6.3% while retail sales improved to 10.6% instead of holding steady at 10.2%. New Zealand’s current account balance is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its peers when risk aversion came back in the financial markets. There have been no major reports out of the US but traders seem to be pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike for the FOMC meeting next week. US crude oil inventories and import prices data are up for release next.
EUR
The euro was weaker against the dollar and yen but it managed to advance against the higher-yielding commodity currencies. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, as the German ZEW economic sentiment index held steady at 0.5 instead of improving to the projected 2.8 figure while the region’s reading ticked up to 5.4, short of the 6.7 consensus. Only the euro zone industrial production report is scheduled today and a 0.8% decline is expected.
GBP
The pound slid against its forex rivals after the UK CPI reports disappointed. Headline inflation was unchanged at 0.6% instead of rising to the projected 0.7% figure while core inflation was also steady at 1.3%. PPI input prices posted a meager 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.6% increase. UK jobs data is due today and a 1.7K increase in claimants is expected for August while the average earnings index likely slid from 2.4% to 2.1% for the three-month period ending in July.
CHF
The franc returned its recent gains to the dollar but was able to advance against the pound and the yen. Swiss PPI was weaker than expected with a 0.3% drop, sharper than the estimated 0.2% dip and the previous 0.1% decline. ZEW economic expectations data is up for release next.
JPY
Yen pairs had a volatile run after the Nikkei reported that BOJ policymakers are considering lowering interest rates further into negative territory while counteracting this move with a reduction in JGB purchases. Still, a BOJ official said that these are still up for discussion and that the debates would proceed cautiously. Japan’s revised industrial production report is scheduled for release today but no changes to the flat reading are eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls sold off sharply against their peers when risk aversion returned to the markets. Data from China came in stronger than expected earlier in the day but the upbeat mood wasn’t sustained as Europe started printing downbeat reports and Fed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. New Zealand printed a larger than expected current account deficit and is set to print its Q2 GDP next, likely reporting a 1.1% growth figure.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way