Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Commercial Content Analysts
793

[B]USD[/B]

The US dollar was in a weaker spot after US CPI reports failed to impress. Headline CPI posted a 0.3% gain as expected, its fastest pace of growth in five months, while core CPI fell short with a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. US building permits and housing starts are up for release today, and traders might take their cues from risk sentiment instead. The Fed Beige Book is also up for release.

[B]EUR[/B]

The euro was still mostly weaker against its peers since there were no reports to support the shared currency yesterday. There are no major reports lined up from the euro zone today so traders could continue to price in expectations for the upcoming ECB rate statement.

[B]GBP[/B]

The pound enjoyed a bounce after UK CPI readings beat expectations and the British parliament seemed likely to vote on a Brexit deal before Article 50 is invoked, easing fears of a hard Brexit. Headline CPI was up from 0.6% to 1.0% and the core CPI climbed from 1.3% to 1.5%. Employment data is due today, with the claimant count change expected to show a 3.4K increase in joblessness, higher than the earlier 2.4K rise. The average earnings index is expected to hold steady at 2.3% while the unemployment rate is projected to stay unchanged at 4.9% as well.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the dollar, advanced to the euro, and gave up ground to the pound. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and there are none due today, which suggests that risk sentiment could play a major role in price action once more.

[B]JPY[/B]

The yen was able to advance against the dollar and the euro but was mostly weaker against the rest of its peers. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has the all industries activity index on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a weaker read of 0.2% compared to the estimated 0.3% uptick.

[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The comdolls were able to hold on to their gains for the day, with the Loonie getting a fresh boost from a surprise draw in crude oil stockpiles according to API data. US crude oil inventories data is due today and a rise of 2.2 million barrels is eyed. New Zealand reported a gain of 1.4% in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction. Earlier today, China’s reports met expectations in terms of GDP, retail sales, and fixed asset investment but industrial production was weaker than expected. The BOC decision is coming up next.

[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]

794

[B]USD[/B]

The US dollar had a mixed performance as it reacted to country-specific events. Data came in mixed, as building permits beat expectations with a gain from 1.15M to 1.23M while housing starts fell from 1.15M to 1.05M instead of rising to 1.18M. US existing home sales are lined up, along with the Philly Fed index and the initial jobless claims.

[B]EUR[/B]

The euro was weighed down by remarks from EU official Weber who called for tough Brexit negotiations, admitting that the split could do damage to the remaining EU bloc as well. There were no major reports out of the region then while today has the ECB rate decision lined up. No actual easing announcements are expected but any downbeat remarks could drag the shared currency much lower.

[B]GBP[/B]

The pound put up a strong fight in the forex arena but was unable to make much headway after EU official Weber reiterated the need to make Brexit negotiations tough on the UK. Employment data was slightly better than expected as the economy added 0.7K positions instead of losing 3.4K jobs. The average earnings index came in at 2.3% as expected while the unemployment rate didn’t budge from 4.9%. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.3% rebound is eyed.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc consolidated to the dollar and pound but was able to advance against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance lined up. A larger surplus of 3.27B CHF is eyed compared to the earlier 3.02B CHF, possibly indicating a pickup in export activity.

[B]JPY[/B]

The yen had a mixed performance as it weakened to the commodity currencies but strengthened against the European currencies and the dollar. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday and there are none lined up today so the yen could continue to react to country-specific events or overall market sentiment.

[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The Aussie and Kiwi held on to their gains after China’s data came in mostly in line with expectations, even as Australia printed a weak jobs report. Employment fell by 9.8K in September instead of showing the estimated 15.2K rise. The BOC kept rates on hold as expected but Governor Poloz admitted that the idea of additional stimulus was discussed. The Canadian central bank also lowered growth forecasts for the year on expectations of weak exports.

[I] By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]

795

[B]USD[/B]

Economic data from the US came in mixed, with initial jobless claims missing expectations and the existing home sales report printing upbeat results. The Philly Fed index posted a smaller than expected decline but still indicated a slowdown in the manufacturing industry. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.

[B]EUR
[/B]
The euro continued to tumble against its forex counterparts as traders were disappointed to find out that ECB policymakers hadn’t planned on tapering QE yet. ECB Governor Draghi said that QE could extend past the March 2017 end-date, citing a weak inflation outlook and downside risks to growth. Euro zone business confidence data is due today, along with a speech by German President Weidmann.

[B]GBP[/B]

The pound put up a fight against its forex rivals despite weaker than expected UK retail sales. The report showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.3% uptick. UK public sector net borrowing data is due today but market watchers could be more sensitive to Brexit headlines.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc underwent a volatile period during the ECB press conference as the Swiss currency took its cue from the euro. Swiss trade balance was stronger than expected at a surplus of 4.37B CHF from the earlier 3.01B CHF. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

[B]JPY[/B]

The yen was mostly weaker against its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Japanese economy. Earlier today, BOJ Governor Kuroda had a testimony but his remarks failed to inspire strong moves for the currency, leaving it vulnerable to market sentiment for the rest of the day.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The comdolls were in a weak spot after Australia printed a dismal jobs report. Unemployment rose by 9.8K while labor force participation tanked. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals and credit card spending rebounded. Canada’s CPI and retail sales figures are due today and improvements are expected on both fronts.

[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]

796

USD

The US dollar was able to post gains against its counterparts on Friday even though there were no major US reports on deck. Only the US flash manufacturing PMI is lined up today and an uptick from 51.5 to 51.6 is eyed. Also on the schedule are speeches from FOMC members Dudley and Bullard.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot on Friday even though there were no reports out of the region. Today has flash PMI readings from the manufacturing and services sectors of Germany and France, with small improvements eyed. These might be enough to bring the region’s manufacturing PMI up from 52.6 to 52.7 and its services PMI up from 52.2 to 52.4.*

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to its recent gains after the UK public sector net borrowing figure came in at 10.1 billion GBP versus the projected 8.6 billion GBP figure. Only the CBI industrial order expectations report is lined up today and an improvement from -5 to -2 is expected.

CHF

The franc slid lower against most of its forex peers on Friday as the Swiss currency simply trailed the euro. There are no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be influenced by the turnout of the euro zone PMI reports unless SNB head Jordan drops a bombshell during his testimony today.

JPY

The yen took advantage of weaker risk appetite on Friday to advance against its higher-yielding rivals. Over the weekend, Japan printed a stronger than expected trade balance, as the surplus came in at 0.35T JPY versus the projected 0.21T JPY figure. Earlier today, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI jumped from 50.4 to 51.7, higher than the estimated rise to 50.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of their recent gains, as the Loonie broke past a key level against the US dollar when Canadian data came in weaker than expected. Headline retail sales fell 0.1% while core retail sales was flat. Headline CPI posted a 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.2% gain while core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.2% increase. Canada’s wholesale sales is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

797

USD

The US dollar managed to squeeze out a few gains after the US flash manufacturing PMI jumped from 51.5 to 53.2 to show a faster pace of expansion compared to the estimated rise to 51.6. US CB consumer confidence data is due today and a fall from 104.1 to 101.5 is eyed. The Richmond manufacturing index is also due and an improvement from -8 to -5 is expected.

EUR

The euro was able to score gains across the board thanks to stronger than expected PMI readings. Only the French services PMI missed the mark but the rest of the industry reports from Germany and the euro zone beat estimates. German Ifo business climate data is due today and a small uptick is eyed but market watchers could pay closer attention to ECB head Draghi’s testimony.

GBP

The pound struggled to stay afloat as the UK CBI industrial order expectations showed a surprise tumble from -5 to -17 instead of rising to -2. BOE Governor Carney has a testimony lined up today and any hints on monetary policy and Brexit action could spur sterling volatility.

CHF

The franc gave up some ground after SNB head Thomas Jordan reiterated that the currency remains significantly overvalued but said that housing market risks are materializing. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so risk sentiment could be the main driving force.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance since it functioned mostly as a counter currency. Japanese data was stronger than expected, easing fears of additional stimulus from the BOJ in their policy meeting next week. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were slightly weaker in recent trading sessions, although the Loonie bounced back after BOC Governor Poloz backpedaled on his stimulus hints. He even hinted that they might stay on put for the next 18 months to assess other economic uncertainties before making adjustments. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

798

USD

The US dollar advanced against the euro and the pound even as data from the US came in mixed. The CB consumer confidence index fell from a downgraded 103.5 figure to 98.6, worse than the estimated fall to 101.5, while the Richmond manufacturing index rose from 46.7 to 51.3. US flash services PMI and new home sales data are up for release today.

EUR

The euro suffered a sharp selloff when ECB Governor Draghi reiterated that stimulus measures will stay in place until the region hits its inflation targets. Data from Germany was stronger than expected, as its Ifo business climate index jumped from 109.5 to 110.5, higher than the estimated rise to 109.6. Germany’s GfK consumer climate index is due, along with import prices and Italian retail sales data.

GBP

The pound sold off in anticipation of dovish remarks from BOE Governor Carney but was able to bounce back when the central bank head acknowledged that the depreciating currency would be positive for inflation. This led market watchers to speculate that the UK central bank won’t need to adjust policy soon. UK preliminary GDP data is due today and a 0.3% growth figure is eyed, slower than the earlier 0.7% gain, but an upside surprise could be seen.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland kept it sensitive to country-specific data. The UBS consumption indicator is up for release today and an improvement from the earlier 1.53 reading could spark gains for the Swiss currency.

JPY

The yen was mostly weaker against its peers as risk appetite kept higher-yielders supported. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so risk sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie got a boost from stronger than expected Australian CPI, with price levels picking up 0.7% versus the estimated 0.5% gain. The trimmed mean CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.4% increase, which might be enough to keep the RBA in its neutral stance. US crude oil inventories data is due and a draw in stockpiles could be positive for the oil-related Loonie, which has been weighed down by reports that Russia and Iraq are unwilling to participate in an output deal.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

799

USD

The US dollar regained a bit of ground against its peers when most of its medium-tier releases came in better than expected. Flash services PMI jumped from an upgraded 52.3 figure to 54.8, outpacing the consensus at 52.4. The goods trade balance showed a smaller deficit, likely making a positive contribution to Q3 GDP. Preliminary wholesale inventories ticked higher to show a slight dip in demand while new home sales increased. Pending home sales, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders data are lined up today.

EUR

The euro got another blow when sources close to the ECB shared that the central bank is considering some adjustments to its QE program, apart from extending it past the March 2017 end-date. These could involve less restrictions on the availability and size of bond purchases, which could further boost liquidity and inflation in the region. Data from the region fell short of estimates, with the German GfK consumer climate index down from 10.0 to 9.7 instead of improving to 10.1 and Italian retail sales lower by 0.1% instead of showing the projected 0.2% uptick.

GBP

The pound was able to recover against its peers as traders seem to be positioning for an upside GDP surprise. BBA mortgage approvals also came in better than expected at 38.3K versus 37.3K. The preliminary Q3 GDP could show a 0.3% growth figure, slower than the earlier 0.7% reading, but a stronger than expected result could be printed. CBI realized sales data is also due and a rise from -8 to -2 is expected.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned more as a counter currency instead of establishing its own direction. The UBS consumption indicator is due today and an improvement from the earlier 1.53 reading could be positive for the Swiss currency.

JPY

The yen also had a mixed performance since it simply reacted to country-specific factors when there were no reports out of Japan. There are still no major reports lined up for today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around ahead of Japan’s consumer spending and inflation releases on Friday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a weak spot even as the US EIA report showed a reduction in crude oil stockpiles of 0.6 million barrels. Australia printed a sharper than expected 1.0% fall in import prices versus the estimated 0.7% drop while New Zealand showed a much wider trade deficit spurred by a 5.7% drop in exports. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

800

USD

The US dollar resumed its climb against its peers, thanks to strong gains in US bond yields and mostly upbeat medium-tier data. Headline durable goods orders fell 0.1% instead of rising by 0.1% while core durable goods orders came in line with estimates of a 0.2% gain. Initial jobless claims stood at 258K versus 261K while pending home sales posted a 1.5% gain, higher than the estimated 1.2% increase. US advanced GDP data is due today and a 2.5% expansion is projected.

EUR

The euro recouped most of its recent losses as traders likely booked profits off their shorts on upbeat data. The Spanish unemployment rate improved from 20% to 18.9%, much better than the estimated 19.3% reading. Preliminary GDP and CPI readings from Germany, France, and Spain are lined up today so strong readings are likely to drive the euro higher while weak results could force it to retreat again.

GBP

The pound also regained a bit of ground but was unable to sustain its climb even after the preliminary Q3 UK GDP came in better than expected. The economy expanded by 0.5% in Q3 even after the Brexit referendum while the earlier figure was upgraded to 0.7% growth. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc barely made much headway against its peers, except against the Japanese yen. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.53 to 1.59 to reflect a bit of improvement. Swiss KOF economic barometer is due today and a rise from 101.3 to 101.8 is eyed.

JPY

The yen gave up ground when economic data from Japan beat expectations, presumably due to the pickup in risk appetite it caused. Household spending is down 2.1% on a year-over-year basis, better than the projected 2.6% decline and the previous 4.6% drop. Tokyo core CPI came in at -0.4% versus the projected 0.5% dip while national core CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.5% decline. BOJ core CPI is still due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the weaker performers of the day, giving up ground to the dollar and European currencies. Australian import prices posted a steeper 1.0% decline compared to the estimated 0.7% drop while PPI rose 0.3% versus the estimated 0.6% gain. Crude oil ticked slightly higher after Saudi Arabia reportedly proposed a 4% output cut to Russia. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies today.*

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

801

USD

The US dollar rallied then reversed on Friday, as traders reacted to a stronger than expected GDP reading then booked profits quickly. The US economy grew by 2.9% in Q3, outpacing the consensus of 2.5%, while the price index for the same period also posted a stronger than expected 1.5% increase. Meanwhile, the UoM sentiment figure was downgraded from 87.9 to 87.2 to show weaker optimism. Today has the core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income data, lined up.

EUR

The euro was able to keep up its climb until the end of the week even as data came in mixed. French CPI and consumer spending fell short of estimates but Germany and Spain reported stronger than expected inflation figures. Euro zone CPI estimates are up for release today and the headline reading is slated to rise from 0.4% to 0.5% while the core figure could hold steady at 0.8%. German retail sales and Italian CPI are also due.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent gains since there were no reports to give the UK currency support on Friday. The GfK consumer climate index ticked down a couple of notches from -1 to -3 to show more pessimism. Today has mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals data lined up.

CHF*

The franc recouped a lot of its losses at the end of Friday’s New York session on profit-taking. Swiss data was also stronger than expected, as the KOF economic barometer rose from 101.6 to 104.7, higher than the estimate at 101.8. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc could trail the euro or react to market sentiment.

JPY

The yen was off to a weak start after reports released over the weekend came in below estimates. Industrial production was flat in September versus the projected 0.9% gain while retail sales fell 1.9% on a year-over-year basis versus the projected 1.7% slump. Housing starts data is still up for release next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly weaker for the day as strong US GDP reinforced projections of higher borrowing costs, which could then weigh on global demand. Australia’s PPI was also weaker than expected at 0.3% versus 0.6%. Earlier today New Zealand reported a drop in its ANZ business confidence index from 27.9 to 24.5. Australia’s MI inflation gauge fell from 0.4% to 0.2% while its private sector credit posted another 0.4% gain as expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

802

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent gains as traders booked profits at the end of the month. Economic data from the US came in line with estimates, except for the Chicago PMI which showed a sharper decline and a slower pace of expansion. The core PCE price index was up 0.1% as expected, personal spending rose 0.5%, and personal income increased by 0.3%. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 51.5 to 51.8 is expected.

EUR

The euro held on to its recent wins when euro zone data came in mostly in line with estimates. The headline CPI flash reading stood at 0.5% while the core figure held steady at 0.8% as expected. The region’s flash GDP estimate came in at 0.3% but Italy’s preliminary CPI reading came in short. French and Italian banks are closed for the holiday today so lower liquidity is expected during the European session.

GBP

The pound was able to advance after BOE Governor Carney confirmed that he would be staying in office for three more years, easing fears that he might step down in the middle of Brexit negotiations. UK net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals came in line with expectations. The manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 55.4 to 54.6 is eyed.

CHF

The franc was barely able to establish any clear direction in recent trading since there were no economic reports out of the Swiss economy. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI data are due today, with the former expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year drop and the latter projected to rise from 53.2 to 53.9.*

JPY

The yen was stuck in consolidation as traders are holding out for the BOJ decision. No actual changes are expected for the time being, although officials are expected to provide more details on the shift in their monetary policy framework. Dovish remarks could keep a lid on yen gains while upbeat comments could allow the Japanese currency to recover.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie gave up ground when crude oil prices fell on reports of record high OPEC output and a buildup in inventories. Earlier today, Chinese PMI readings came in mostly better than expected. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP reading and might show a bleak 0.2% expansion while New Zealand has its quarterly jobs report due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

803

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of its recent gains as election-related uncertainties weighed on US markets. Polls continued to show a narrowing lead for Clinton over Trump as the FBI investigation into her private email server is hurting her credibility. Data came in mostly in line with expectations, as the ISM manufacturing PMI advanced from 51.5 to 51.9 while the jobs component returned to showing expansion. Today has the FOMC statement lined up and hawkish remarks could keep the US currency afloat.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness and was able to advance against most of its rivals, except against the franc. French and Italian banks were closed for the holiday and there were no euro zone reports released. Today has the final manufacturing PMI readings due, along with the German unemployment change. Analysts are expecting to see a flat reading for October.

GBP

The pound also weakened against its forex peers as the UK manufacturing PMI slumped from 55.5 to 54.3, lower than the 54.6 consensus. Today has the construction PMI due and a slide from 52.3 to 51.9 is expected, although traders might hold out ahead of the BOE decision tomorrow.

CHF

The franc was one of the top performers for the day as traders seemed to transfer their safe-haven holdings out of the dollar and onto the franc. SNB head Jordan attempted to jawbone the currency to no avail, with franc bulls unwilling to stop unless actual intervention is seen. Swiss retail sales came in line with expectations of a 2.3% year-over-year drop while the manufacturing PMI beat expectations by rising from 53.2 to 54.7 versus the 53.9 forecast.*

JPY

Yen pairs were mostly stuck in consolidation as traders couldn’t get a clear direction after the BOJ refrained from boosting stimulus again. Central bank officials had a dovish outlook, citing that risks to growth and inflation were tilted to the downside. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was one of the strongest performers, thanks to upbeat jobs data and the 11.4% jump in dairy prices during the GDT auction. Quarterly employment change rose 1.4% while the jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%, indicating that a potential RBNZ rate cut might be their last one for a long while. In Australia, the currency got a boost from a slightly hawkish RBA statement and PMI improvements in China. US crude oil inventories are due next and a draw in stockpiles could support the Loonie.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

804

USD

The US dollar continued to slide against its peers as stock indices closed lower on election jitters. The FOMC kept interest rates on hold as expected, making some slight revisions in their rhetoric but still keeping December rate hike expectations in play. The ADP non-farm employment change missed the mark and showed a 147K reading versus the projected 166K increase. ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 57.1 to 56.2 is expected.

EUR

The euro advanced against its counterparts as data from the region was mostly stronger than expected. Spanish and French manufacturing PMI beat expectations while the indices from Italy and the rest of the euro zone came up short. Germany reported a 13K drop in joblessness instead of printing a flat reading. Spanish and Italian jobs data are lined up for today.

GBP

The pound also regained ground as traders likely booked short positions ahead of today’s BOE statement. The construction PMI beat expectations with a rise from 52.3 to 52.6 instead of the projected drop to 51.9. No actual policy changes are expected from the BOE today but any change in rhetoric could spur strong moves for pound pairs.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent gains to the euro and pound, as traders were concerned about potential SNB intervention at these levels. Today has the Swiss SECO consumer climate index due and a rise from -15 to -13 is eyed.

JPY

The yen rallied against most of its forex peers as risk aversion still lingered in the financial markets. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so there are no major reports due.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as the Aussie advanced while the Loonie lagged. US crude oil inventories rose by 14.4 million barrels versus the estimated buildup of 1.6 million barrels. Australia’s trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit buoyed by a 2% gain in exports. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

805

USD

The US dollar chalked up another round of declines against its peers as economic data came in mostly weaker than expected, except for factory orders which posted a slightly stronger 0.3% gain versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. Initial jobless claims showed a larger rise while unit labor costs indicated downside pressure on wages. The NFP report is due today and a 174K gain is eyed, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.0% to 4.9%.*

EUR

The euro was slightly weaker against its peers, although it was able to squeeze out a few more gains against the commodity currencies. Euro zone data was mixed, with the Spanish unemployment change figure coming in better than expected and the Italian jobs report falling short of consensus. Final services PMI readings are due from the region’s top economies today.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally after the British High Court ruled that the UK government would need the parliament’s approval before officially invoking Article 50. This could mean more delays before the negotiation process begins, postponing the official Brexit date as well. The UK government is still set to appeal this decision to the supreme court by December 7. The BOE kept rates on hold as expected, issuing a slightly less dovish statement than usual. There are no reports due from the UK today but Brexit-related headlines could push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent wins to the European currencies after the British High Court decision, as risk appetite improved in the region. Swiss SECO consumer climate improved from -15 to -13 as expected, reflecting a smaller degree of pessimism. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen weakened slightly against its peers during the Japanese bank holiday as risk appetite improved somewhat. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to euro and pound strength. Australia printed a strong trade balance buoyed by a 2% gain in exports and a stronger than expected 0.6% gain in retail sales. Canada’s jobs report is due today and a 10K drop in hiring is expected. The Ivey PMI is also due and a slide from 58.4 to 56.2 is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

806

USD

The US dollar took a hit on Friday when the NFP report printed a lower than expected 161K gain versus the estimated 174K increase. The jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected while average hourly earnings posted a 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. However, the Greenback was off to a strong start in the week after FBI director Comey said that they found no evidence of wrongdoing in their investigation of Clinton’s private email server. Only medium-tier reports are due today and election-related updates could have a bigger impact on USD movement.

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance on Friday then gapped down against most of its peers this week, as risk appetite picked up. Services PMI readings from the euro zone fell short of estimates last week while today has retail sales and Sentix investor confidence data on tap. Stronger than expected data could keep the shared currency afloat but market sentiment could play a greater role in price action.

GBP

The pound continued to profit off the British High Court’s ruling that the UK government would need to get parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday and only the Halifax HPI is due today so Brexit-related headlines might still be the main driver’s of pound movement.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar but was weaker against the rest of its counterparts as risk appetite seemed to return. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has foreign currency reserves and CPI data due. A large jump in reserves could be evidence of SNB intervention while weak CPI could keep traders on their toes for potential central bank action.

JPY

The yen was off to a weak start on Monday as the FBI’s conclusion on its investigation on Clinton’s private email server renewed hopes that the Democratic nominee could win the elections. The BOJ released its monetary policy meeting minutes over the weekend and also its average cash earnings report, which indicated a 0.2% uptick as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation at the end of the week, awaiting clues on how market sentiment might fare. Canada’s employment data came in above consensus, as the economy added 43.9K positions in October versus the estimated 10K drop. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 58.4 to 59.7, reflecting stronger industry growth. However, the trade balance showed a weaker than expected 4.1 billion CAD deficit versus the projected 1.7 billion CAD shortfall and the previous 2 billion CAD deficit. ANZ jobs advertisements in Australia showed a 1% gain to show a possible turnaround in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

807

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as US stock markets closed higher again on the eve of the elections. Markets seem hopeful that Clinton will emerge victorious, as this scenario would mean less uncertainty for the economy, although the poll leads suggest that it’s still too close to call. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so all the focus would be on the outcome of the elections.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though data from the euro zone came in stronger than expected. The Sentix investor confidence index was up from 8.5 to 13.1, higher than the projected climb to 8.7, while retail sales fell by only 0.2% versus the estimated 0.3% drop. German industrial production and trade balance data are lined up today but traders could be more sensitive to market sentiment leading up to the US elections.

GBP

The pound gave up a bit of ground as traders probably booked profits after the reaction to the British High Court ruling last week. UK Halifax HPI posted a 1.4% rise in prices versus the estimated 0.3% uptick, keeping upside price pressures in play. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due today and disappointing results could remind traders of the Brexit-related uncertainties that are prevailing.

CHF

The franc advanced against most of its currency counterparts, prompting a bit of jawboning from SNB officials. In a TV interview, a policymaker said that they are watching CHF flows closely in relation to US election market movements and that they would not hesitate to intervene if necessary. SNB foreign currency reserves ticked slightly higher from 628B CHF to 630B CHF while CPI was weaker than expected at 0.1% versus 0.2%.

JPY

The Japanese yen wasn’t able to keep up with dollar strength but it advanced slightly against its other peers, possibly on profit-taking ahead of the US elections. Only the Japanese leading indicators is due today and a small dip is eyed, although risk sentiment might remain the bigger driver of yen price action for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to take advantage of the pickup in risk-taking, spurred by strong gains in US stock markets. There were no major reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday. Today’s Chinese trade balance release featured weaker than expected results, as the surplus widened from 278B CNY to 325B CNY, short of the estimated 366B CNY figure. Exports were down 7.3% while imports lagged 1.4%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

808

USD

The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction while the elections were going on, only to tumble sharply when Trump started gaining the lead in electoral votes. US futures are deep in the red at this point, as a Trump win could lead markets to gap lower in the US session.

EUR

The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but is still lower against the rest of its peers, as economic data from the region was mostly weaker than expected. German industrial production sank 1.8% versus the projected 0.6% drop while both Germany and France printed subpar trade balance readings. Only the EU economic forecasts are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound resumed its slide against its peers upon seeing downbeat industrial production data. The report printed a 0.4% slump versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while manufacturing production was up 0.6%. The UK Supreme Court accepted the government’s appeal against requiring parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, which revives the possibility of having the Brexit negotiations start in the first quarter of next year. The Supreme Court will convene from December 5-8 and announce their decision early next year.

CHF

The franc is taking advantage of the risk-off flows so far, as polls are showing that Trump is holding on to his lead against Hillary Clinton. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected and there are no reports due from Switzerland today, keeping risk sentiment in play. Bear in mind, though, that SNB officials have warned that they could intervene in the market if necessary.

JPY

The yen is also benefitting from the flight to safety spurred by the early results in the US elections. Medium-tier data from Japan was mixed but traders appear to be shrugging it off and paying closer attention to the bloodbath in the financial markets. Still, a come-from-behind victory by Clinton could force the yen to return its recent gains.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls are able to benefit from dollar weakness but are taking huge hits against lower-yielding currencies due to the rise in risk aversion. Chinese CPI and PPI numbers are up for release but the attention seems to be mostly on the US elections. The RBNZ is set to announce its policy decision and potential 0.25% rate cut in the late US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

809

USD

The US dollar was off to a poor start when Trump’s victory became apparent but pulled off a strong comeback during the US session as equities recovered. Investors seem to be pricing in the potential impact of corporate tax reforms and Trump’s other economic plans on companies. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so the focus could stay on the government’s economic agenda.

EUR

The euro tossed and turned in the aftermath of the US elections but eventually ended lower against its peers. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has French industrial production and non-farm payrolls.*

GBP

The pound also had a volatile run during the announcement of the US election results but ended slightly higher. UK goods trade balance indicated a larger than expected shortfall. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was able to profit from the initial risk-off selloff but soon gave back its gains and more. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the SNB’s constant intervention threat was enough for traders to book profits from their long franc positions quickly. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen ended up one of the biggest losers for the day as it wound up giving up its intraday gains back to its rivals when risk appetite returned. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could still be the main driver of price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were pushed and pulled by changing risk sentiment, giving back some of its previous gains in today’s Asian session. The RBNZ cut rates as expected while Wheeler emphasized that a lower exchange rate for the Kiwi is needed. US crude oil inventories showed a larger than expected buildup of 2.4 million barrels. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

810

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as traders tried to stay optimistic about the Trump presidency. Equity indices closed higher once more ahead of today’s Veterans’ Day holiday. There are no reports lined up from the US economy today and liquidity is expected to be thin.

EUR

The euro had another volatile run as risk sentiment switched back and forth. Euro zone data came in mixed, with French industrial production down 1.1% versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French non-farm payrolls and Italian industrial production beat expectations. Only medium-tier inflation reports are due from Germany today while French banks are closed for the holiday.

GBP

The pound was the big winner for the day as the pickup in risk appetite and general feeling of optimism in the markets boosted the UK currency off its lows. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the construction output report due.

CHF

The franc lost a lot of ground to its peers as risk appetite returned. Traders had been on the lookout for SNB intervention anyway, which explains why the Swiss currency quickly gave back its wins. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The Japanese yen was also in the losers’ bench because of the risk-on market environment. Data from Japan was slightly better than expected as the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.2% drop. Moving forward, market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were no match to dollar strength but were able to take advantage of the risk-on flows against its other counterparts. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today but BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

811

[B]USD[/B]

The US dollar closed the week on a strong note as traders continued to focus on the silver lining to Trump’s election win. Equities managed to squeeze out more gains at the end of the week and traders are now turning their attention to FOMC rate hike prospects. US preliminary consumer sentiment also beat expectations by rising to 91.2. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

[B]EUR[/B]

The euro lost a lot of ground to its peers on Friday as traders are focusing on the political event risks in the region. Data was mostly in line with expectations last Friday while today has the euro zone industrial production and a speech by ECB head Draghi lined up. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.9% drop in production, following the previous 1.6% gain.

[B]GBP[/B]

The pound continued its ascent until the end of the week, even though there were no major reports from the UK economy then. It seems as though the improved sentiment in the US has been carrying over to the UK, with some predicting that Brexit would turn out well for the economy down the line. Earlier today, Rightmove HPI printed a 1.1% drop in house prices.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc kept falling against most of its counterparts as risk appetite improved and the threat of SNB intervention prevented traders from pushing their previous long positions. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, weaker compared to the earlier 0.3% gain.

[B]JPY[/B]

The yen continued to give up ground against its peers as risk-taking carried on until the end of the week. Over the weekend, Japan reported a stronger than expected GDP reading of 0.5% versus the estimated 0.2% expansion. Its industrial production report is due next and a flat reading is eyed.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The comdolls gave up their recent gains on downbeat Chinese data, weaker oil prices, and the earthquake in New Zealand. Chinese retail sales slumped from 10.7% to 10% on a year-over-year basis. Industrial production was unchanged at 6.1% versus the projected rise to 6.2% while fixed asset investment ticked slightly higher. New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales report is due next and slower gains for both headline and core figures are eyed.

[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]

812

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its peers but its gains were limited, suggesting that it may have already peaked. There were no reports of out of the US economy yesterday while today has retail sales figures on deck. Headline consumer spending is expected to have increased by 0.6% while core retail sales likely rose by 0.5%. US import prices and the Empire State manufacturing index are also lined up.

EUR

The euro was the weakest performer of the day as the upcoming Italian referendum led several traders to speculate that a change in leadership could expose the country to a vote to leave the region. Euro zone industrial production fell 0.8% versus the projected 0.9% slump. German and Italian preliminary GDP readings are up for release today, along with the French preliminary CPI and the region’s flash GDP reading.

GBP

The pound paused from its strong climb, as traders probably trimmed their positions ahead of this week’s UK event risks. UK CPI is due today and a rise in the headline figure from 1.0% to 1.1% is expected while the core figure could tick down from 1.5% to 1.4%. BOE Inflation Report hearings are also scheduled today and traders are waiting to hear what policymakers have planned.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned more as a counter currency. Data from Switzerland was weaker than expected as the PPI printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc might be sensitive to market sentiment or country-specific action.

JPY

The yen lost further ground against its peers when risk appetite extended its stay in the markets. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to stay afloat against the dollar but were able to rack up gains against the yen and the euro. Chinese data was mostly weaker than expected, particularly when it comes to retail sales and industrial production. New Zealand has its quarterly retail sales report lined up next and weaker consumer spending data is eyed. The GDT auction is also set to take place and another rise in dairy prices could lift the Kiwi.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way