USD
The US dollar was able to hold its ground, thanks to mostly upbeat economic data. The ADP non-farm employment change reading hinted at an upside NFP surprise while the Chicago PMI posted a sharp climb. Personal income was higher than expected but personal spending lagged. US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are up for release, setting the tone for Friday’s NFP report.
EUR
The euro was able to recover against the commodity currencies and carried on its rally against the yen. Economic data from the euro zone came in line with expectations, particularly the CPI estimates, while the German retail sales figure surprised to the upside. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due today.
GBP
The pound was higher across the board after the BOE printed its Financial Stability Report and bank stress test results. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 51.3 to 51.4 is eyed, possibly reflecting a stronger expansion in the industry.
CHF
The franc slid to the dollar and pound but managed to bounce back against the euro. The KOF economic barometer missed estimates and printed a drop to 102.2 from the downgraded 103.9 figure. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 2.0% slide is eyed.
JPY
The yen continued to slide against its counterparts and the final manufacturing PMI upgrade from 51.1 to 51.3 seemed to be of no help. There are no other reports due from Japan today so yen pairs could extend their climb or react to market sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The OPEC decided to cut production to 32.5 million barrels per day starting January next year in their first output deal in eight years. This comes after Saudi Arabia gave in to Iran’s demands to produce around 3.8 million barrels per day instead of cutting their own output to 3.7 million barrels per day. Australia’s private capital expenditure report came in weaker than expected with a 4% slide while China’s official manufacturing PMI beat expectations by rising to 51.7.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains despite seeing mostly stronger than expected reports. The ISM manufacturing PMI was up from 51.9 to 53.2 to indicate a faster pace of industry growth, but the jobs component saw a decline. The NFP is the main event for today and an increase of 177K is eyed, higher than the earlier 161K figure. Average hourly earnings could post a 0.2% uptick, slower than the earlier 0.4% increase.
EUR
The euro made a strong bounce against its peers on French President Hollande’s decision to drop out of the race. Data from the euro zone was also mostly stronger than expected, with some final manufacturing PMI readings enjoying upward revisions. Spanish unemployment change and euro zone PPI are lined up today.
GBP
The pound was somewhat weaker on downbeat UK manufacturing PMI results. The reading slid from 54.2 to 53.4 to show slower industry growth instead of rising to the projected 54.4 figure. UK construction PMI is due today and a drop from 52.6 to 52.3 is eyed.
CHF
The franc regained ground to the dollar but still ended lower to the euro and pound. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI both surprised to the upside, with the former showing a smaller than expected 0.5% drop compared to the estimated 2.0% slide and the latter rising from 54.7 to 56.6. Swiss GDP is due today and a 0.3% expansion is eyed.
JPY
The yen carried on with its losing streak, although it managed to advance against the dollar and make some corrections against the commodity currencies. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI saw a slight upgrade but capital spending turned out much weaker than expected. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie extended its climb against its rivals, backed by the OPEC output deal to cut production and support prices. Australia posted a stronger than expected 0.5% gain in retail sales versus the projected 0.3% increase. Canada is set to print its jobs report later today and might show a 16.5K drop in hiring.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance on Friday, as it erased some of its gains after the NFP release. The actual figure came in line with estimates of a 178K increase in hiring while the unemployment rate indicated a larger improvement to 4.6%. However, average hourly earnings fell 0.1% instead of rising by 0.2%, suggesting weak wage growth. The US final services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are due today.
EUR
The euro suffered sharp losses and gapped lower against most of its peers this week after the Italian referendum rejected the proposed constitutional amendment. This has led PM Renzi to step down from his post, triggering additional political uncertainty in the region and possibly worsening the ongoing banking crisis in Italy. Euro zone retail sales and services PMI readings are up for release today.
GBP
The pound managed to advance in the forex race as traders flocked away from the euro and onto the UK currency instead. Apart from that, UK construction PMI beat expectations by rising from 52.6 to 52.8 instead of falling to 52.3. UK services PMI is due today and a dip from 54.5 to 54.2 is expected.
CHF
The franc was able to take advantage of euro weakness but was no match to pound strength. Swiss GDP was flat in Q3 instead of posting the estimated 0.3% expansion. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy this week but traders could be on edge for central bank intervention in light of the Italian referendum outcome.
JPY
The yen was able to recoup some of its recent losses as risk aversion returned after the Italian referendum. There were no reports out of Japan on Friday while today has the consumer confidence index due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was able to hold on to its post-OPEC gains and also benefit from stronger than expected Canadian jobs data. The economy added 10.7K positions instead of losing 16.5K workers while the unemployment rate improved. In New Zealand, PM Key also stepped down, bringing political uncertainty to the mix as well.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it was barely able to benefit from stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI. The reading rose from 54.8 to 57.2, higher than the consensus at 55.3. The labor market conditions index also improved from 1.4 to 1.5. US trade balance and factory orders data are up for release today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro was off to a dismal start but made an impressive comeback as political and fiscal fears eased. Italian PM Renzi was set to step down after the referendum results were released but the President advised him to delay his resignation until the budget is passed. In Greece, there are talks of debt restructuring as the country made progress in its fiscal and economic reforms. Euro zone retail sales beat expectations with a 1.1% gain while final services PMI readings were mixed. German factory orders are due today and a 0.6% rebound is eyed.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was able to hold on to its gains as the UK services PMI beat expectations. The reading rose from 54.5 to 55.2 instead of dropping to the estimated 54.2 reading. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today so Brexit-related headlines could drive pound action from here.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc regained ground to the dollar but was still no match to euro or pound strength. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the CPI on tap. A drop of 0.1% in price levels is eyed but a weaker than expected read could spur more weakness for the Swiss currency.
[B]JPY[/B]
Yen pairs filled the gaps over the weekend as the Japanese currency resumed its slide to its counterparts. The consumer confidence index slipped from 42.3 to 40.9 instead of improving to the estimated 43.8 figure while average earnings posted a lower than expected 0.1% uptick.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
[/B]
The Kiwi also rebounded quickly after PM Key announced his resignation as traders turned their attention back to the upcoming events. In Australia, the current account balance posted a smaller than expected deficit and the RBA statement is coming up next. Canada has its trade balance and Ivey PMI on tap while New Zealand will hold its Global Dairy Trade auction in the latter part of the US session.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar was able to regain some ground against its counterparts in the New York trading session, even though economic data came in mixed. The trade deficit widened from 36.2B USD to 42.6B USD on weaker export activity and a pickup in imports while factory orders posted a stronger than expected 2.7% increase. JOLTS job openings and consumer credit data are due today but risk sentiment could have a stronger impact on dollar movement.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro gave back some of its recent gains on reports that the Italian constitutional court would review election law next year as rumors swirled that voting for a new PM could take place in February. Data was stronger than expected, as Germany reported a 4.9% gain in factory orders versus the projected 0.6% uptick. German industrial production and French trade balance numbers are lined up today.
[B]GBP
[/B]The pound retreated slightly as there were no UK reports to give it an extra boost yesterday. Today has the manufacturing and industrial production reports on tap and 0.2% gains are eyed. As always, Brexit-related headlines could also influence pound price action in the upcoming sessions.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc gave in to dollar strength but managed to take advantage of the pullbacks in the euro and the pound. Swiss CPI was weaker than expected with a 0.2% decline versus the projected 0.1% dip. Swiss foreign currency reserves data is due today and this should provide some clues on whether or not the SNB is intervening in the currency market.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen managed to recover a bit against its rivals, although longer-term uptrends on the yen pairs remain intact. Japanese average cash earnings posted a meager 0.1% uptick and today has the leading indicators report on tap. A rise from 100.3% to 101.6% is eyed.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The Loonie and the Kiwi extended their gains on stronger commodity prices, especially after New Zealand’s GDT auction yielded a 3.5% gain in dairy prices. Canada’s trade deficit narrowed but its Ivey PMI retreated from 59.7 to 56.8. In Australia, the Q3 GDP report showed a surprise 0.5% contraction versus the estimated 0.2% growth figure, also lower than the earlier 0.6% expansion. US crude oil inventories and the BOC statement could drive Loonie price action from here.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The lack of top-tier US data releases kept the dollar functioning as a counter currency in recent sessions. It chalked up a mixed performance, advancing to the pound but giving up ground to the yen and commodity currencies. JOLTS job openings fell from 5.63M to 5.53M and initial jobless claims data is due today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro tried to stay afloat but was no match to comdoll strength. German industrial production missed forecasts and printed a 0.3% uptick versus the projected 0.9% gain while France reported a larger than expected trade deficit. The ECB statement is due today and an extension of their QE program is expected.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound slid against its peers on downbeat manufacturing and industrial production figures. The former fell by 0.9% versus the projected 0.2% increase while the latter chalked up a 1.3% drop instead of the estimated 0.2% gain. UK Supreme Court hearings have also been weighing on the pound and could continue to influence price action for today.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc took advantage of pound and dollar weakness but was no match to euro strength. Swiss foreign currency reserves rose from 630B CHF to 648B CHF to reflect a rise in holdings against the franc but not enough to signal intervention. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen was able to chalk up some gains against the dollar and the pound recently, although the uptrend among yen pairs remains mostly intact. Economic data from Japan was mixed, as the final GDP reading was cut in half from 0.6% to 0.3% while the current account surplus beat expectations. The Economy Watchers sentiment index is due next.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were big winners for the day, even as Australia reported a surprise 0.5% contraction in Q3. The BOC kept rates unchanged as expected while RBNZ head Wheeler indicated less concern about Kiwi strength, citing that they will probably keep rates unchanged for quite some time. Australia’s trade balance missed forecasts while China reported a smaller surplus even as both imports and exports gained.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar advanced against its peers once more as the ECB QE extension rendered US bonds more appealing against its rivals. Initial jobless claims came in line with expectations at 258K. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index is up for release today and a rise from 93.8 to 94.3 is expected.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro tossed and turned during the ECB statement and press conference, as the reduction of monthly bond purchases lifted the shared currency but the extension of the end-date to December next year and the possibility of pushing this deadline much further forced a larger drop. ECB staff upgraded forecasts for next but Draghi cited that these estimates are different from their targets, suggesting that more easing action could be in the cards. German trade balance and French industrial production numbers are due.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound also tanked to most of its counterparts even though there were no major reports out of the UK. Today has the goods trade balance and construction output report due, with the former slated to show a smaller deficit of 11.9 billion GBP and the latter expected to print a 0.2% uptick.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc sold off against most of its peers, except against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the unemployment rate on tap. No change from the earlier 3.3% figure is eyed and the franc might function as a counter currency once again.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen resumed its slide against its counterparts as the ECB announcement led traders to anticipate some form of easing from the BOJ as well. Data from Japan has been mostly weaker than expected, with the Q3 GDP downgraded from 0.6% to 0.3% although medium-tier reports such as the BSI manufacturing index and M2 money stock beat expectations.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
[/B]
The comdolls took advantage of euro and yen weakness but caved to dollar strength. Australia and China printed weak headline trade figures but components showed gains in both imports and exports. China’s inflation numbers were mixed, as the CPI beat expectations with a 2.3% reading while PPI fell short at only 1.5%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground at the end of the week as traders reacted to upbeat data and priced in expectations for this week’s FOMC statement. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment was up from 93.8 to 98.0 to reflect stronger optimism while inflation expectations jumped from 2.2% to 2.8%. The dollar is also currently supported by the news that the government was able to avoid a shutdown by passing its latest budget.
EUR
The euro was off to a weak start as it slid lower against its peers in the early Asian session. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, leaving traders to keep incorporating their new biases after the ECB decided to extend the deadline of its QE program last week.
GBP
The pound gave back some of its recent gains on Friday as traders likely booked profits ahead of this week’s set of top-tier events. This includes CPI data, claimant count change, retail sales, and the BOE statement. No actual policy changes are expected for the time being.
CHF
The franc resumed its slide to the dollar but kept advancing against the euro. The Swiss unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc could keep reacting to market sentiment but traders might also book profits ahead of the SNB decision later on.
JPY
The yen was off to a weak start as another round of weakness seems to be in the cards for the week. Core machinery orders data released over the weekend beat expectations with a 4.1% gain versus the projected 1.3% increase. Tertiary industry activity and preliminary machine tool orders are up for release today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie had a running start this week as non-OPEC countries confirmed their cooperation in an output deal over the weekend. New Zealand reported a 2.2% pickup in visitor arrivals for for November. Quarterly manufacturing sales data is up for release from New Zealand today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a weak start for the week on profit-taking ahead of the FOMC and a bit of improvement in risk appetite. The federal budget deficit was much wider than expected, also casting some doubts on how the new US presidency could keep spending in check. Medium-tier reports such as the NFIB small business index and US import prices are due today but pre-FOMC action could be in play.
EUR
The euro made a decent bounce on reports that the Italian government pledged to bail out Monte dei Paschi in case private investors decline to provide funds, easing concerns of a full-blown banking crisis in the country. ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the region are up for release today and improvements could keep the shared currency supported.
GBP
The pound also made a bit of a bounce when UK Chancellor Hammond supported the idea of a longer transition period for Brexit. This underscored BOE Governor Carney’s calls for a “Brexit Buffer” which would give businesses and banks more time to adjust. UK CPi figures are due today and a pickup in the headline figure from 0.9% to 1.1% is eyed while the core CPI could climb from 1.2% to 1.3%.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to most of its peers, except against the US dollar. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday but traders seem to be paring their exposure ahead of the SNB decision later on.*
JPY
The yen regained some ground after gapping lower against its counterparts. Yen pairs are already testing key resistance levels or are approaching areas of interest so there may be some profit-taking happening ahead of potential volatility during the FOMC announcement. Data from Japan was still weak, with the tertiary industry activity index up 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% gain and preliminary tool orders down 5.6%.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the slide in the dollar and the pickup in risk-taking. Over the weekend, non-OPEC oil producers expressed support for the OPEC output deal to stabilize oil prices. Australia reported a weaker increase in house prices for Q3, easing concerns over a property bubble. Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment were mostly in line with expectations while retail sales surprised to the upside with a 10.8% year-over-year gain.*
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
Dollar pairs were stuck in their ranges as traders are feeling anxious ahead of the FOMC statement. There are a number of ways Fed head Yellen and her group of policymakers could play this, although many are expecting them to combine the rate hike with cautious remarks. Still, any upgrades in their economic projections or indications that rate hikes are possible early next year could drive the dollar higher. Retail sales and PPI data are due ahead of the Fed decision.
EUR
The euro also traded mostly sideways as data from the region came in mixed. German WPI, ZEW economic sentiment, and euro zone quarterly employment change data fell short of expectations but the region’s ZEW index came in stronger than expected by rising from 15.8 to 18.1. French final CPI and euro zone industrial production numbers are due today but traders could pay closer attention to updates from Italy’s banking sector.
GBP
The pound got a bit of a boost from better than expected inflation reports. Headline CPI was up from 0.9% to 1.2%, outpacing the 1.1% consensus, while core CPI advanced from 1.2% to 1.4% versus the 1.3% forecast. RPI also beat expectations but HPI and PPI input prices fell short. UK jobs data is due today and the claimant count could post a 6.2K gain while the jobless rate could hold steady at 4.8%. The average earnings index could stay unchanged at 2.3%.
CHF
The franc was unable to establish a clear direction since there were no major reports out of Switzerland. Traders also appear to be easing up on their franc positions ahead of the SNB statement later this week, as the central bank could reiterate its plans to intervene in the currency arena if necessary.
JPY
The yen chalked up a few more losses before making a small recovery later in the day. The Tankan manufacturing index climbed from 6 to 10 as expected while the non-manufacturing index held steady at 18 instead of improving to the consensus at 19. Yen pairs could take their cue from USDJPY price action during the FOMC statement later today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls edged higher against the yen and the dollar as risk appetite seemed to stay in play. Australia reported a 3.9% slump in Westpac consumer sentiment for December while new motor vehicle sales dipped 0.6% in the previous month. Data from China was mostly stronger than expected, led by the jump in retail sales from 10.0% to 10.8% year-over-year. US crude oil inventories are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar staged a strong rally after the Fed hiked interest rates and signaled room for three more tightening moves next year, an increase from their September forecast of just two hikes. Policymakers also upgraded growth and jobs forecasts for next year. US retail sales came in weaker than expected for November while PPI readings beat estimates. US CPI, initial jobless claims, Empire State manufacturing index, and Philly Fed index are lined up today.
EUR
The euro slid against the dollar but held its ground against most of its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone was mixed as French final CPI came in line with expectations of a flat reading while the region’s industrial production showed a 0.1% decline versus the projected 0.2% uptick. Flash manufacturing and services PMI reports are due from Germany and France today.
GBP
The pound got a boost from stronger than expected jobs data, with the claimant count up by 2.4K versus the projected 6.2K increase. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.8% as expected while the average earnings index improved from an upgraded 2.4% to 2.5%. UK retail sales is due today ahead of the BOE interest rate decision and release of MPC minutes. No change to interest rates or bond purchases is expected.
CHF
The franc functioned mostly as a counter currency even though Swiss PPI beat expectations with a 0.1% gain instead of the projected 0.1% drop. Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index improved from 8.9 to 12.9. The SNB decision is scheduled today so traders are wary of jawboning or actual currency intervention, although the odds appear slim.
JPY
The yen resumed its slide as traders flocked to the dollar after the FOMC decision. Japan’s industrial production report was downgraded from a 0.1% uptick to a flat reading but its flash manufacturing PMI improved from 51.3 to 51.9, outpacing the 51.5 consensus. No other reports are due from Japan today so bond yields and market sentiment could push the yen around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost to dollar strength but managed to advance against the yen. Crude oil inventories posted another draw in stockpiles of 2.4 million barrels versus the projected reduction of 1.4 million barrels. Australia reported a higher than expected employment change gain at 39.1K versus 17.6K but its jobless rate increased. Canadian manufacturing sales is due next, along with a speech from BOC Governor Poloz.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar continued to reign supreme against its counterparts as traders incorporated expectations of three more rate hikes next year. Economic data from the US also supported this upbeat outlook, with manufacturing indices posting impressive gains and CPI readings meeting expectations. US building permits and housing starts data are due today.
EUR
The euro slid to new lows to the dollar but managed to stay afloat against the yen. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs from the region came in mixed, reminding traders that the economy is still on shaky footing and that several risks remain. Euro zone final CPI readings and trade balance are lined up today.
GBP
The pound gave back some of its recent gains as the UK retail sales report simply came in line with expectations of a 0.2% uptick while the BOE was less upbeat than expected. MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged but warned that adjustments could be made either way, depending on Brexit risks. They added that growth and inflation are likely to be subdued next year.
CHF
The franc advanced against its European counterparts even though SNB officials reiterated that the currency remains overvalued. The lack of any action from the SNB probably drew buyers back to the safe-haven Swiss currency, although it still caved to dollar strength. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen struggled to regain ground as the Fed’s decision to hike is weighing on bond yields in Japan. There are no reports due from Japan today but traders could start pricing in expectations for the BOJ decision early next week.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar but managed to stay afloat against the euro and the pound. Australia’s jobs report was mixed, with a higher than expected employment change reading and an increase in the unemployment rate. Canadian manufacturing sales posted a 0.8% decline versus the projected 0.7% gain but BOC Governor Poloz turned the attention to the improvements in the property sector. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar returned some of its recent wins on Friday as traders booked profits before the end of the week. Economic data from the US was also weaker than expected, as building permits and housing starts came in below consensus. Only the flash services PMI is due today and a rise from 54.6 to 55.2 is eyed.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro made a bit of a bounce against its forex counterparts on Friday even though data came in mixed. The CPI readings were unchanged from the headline 0.6% estimate and the core 0.8% figure but the region’s trade balance was weaker than expected. The German Ifo business climate index is up for release today and an improvement from 110.4 to 110.7 is expected.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound also chalked up some gains on Friday as the CBI industrial order expectations index improved from -3 to 0 instead of sinking to -5. There are no reports due from the UK economy today so pound traders could be extra sensitive to Brexit-related headlines.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc regained a bit of ground to the dollar, euro, and pound as traders probably breathed a sigh of relief after the SNB decision. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen also got back on its feet towards the end of the week, presumably on profit-taking and positioning ahead of this week’s BOJ decision. Over the weekend, Japan reported a weaker than expected trade surplus of 0.54T JPY but this was actually spurred by a 4.3% gain in exports and a 3.4% increase in imports.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were still on weak footing towards the end of the week, as traders priced in the potential impact of the Fed’s hike on commodity prices and global growth. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported an increase in its ANZ business confidence index from 20.5 to 21.7 and also an improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment. The Australian Treasury just released its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook while the RBA minutes are due tomorrow.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its peers even though the flash services PMI came in weaker than expected. The reading dipped from 54.6 to 53.4 instead of improving to 55.2 as business activity growth slowed. Fed head Yellen gave a few more positive remarks on the job market improvements in her recent testimony. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro resumed its slide to the dollar but advanced against the commodity currencies. The German Ifo business climate index improved from 110.4 to 111.0, higher than the projected 110.7 reading. German PPI and euro zone current account balance are up for release today.
GBP
The pound also had a mixed performance as there were no major reports out of the UK economy. Only the CBI realized sales index is up for release today and a drop from 26 to 20 is eyed, possibly leading to losses for sterling.
CHF
The franc slid to the dollar but advanced against the euro and the pound, even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy recently. Today has the trade balance on tap and a larger surplus of 3.57B CHF is eyed compared to the earlier 2.68B CHF surprlus.
JPY
The yen advanced against most of its rivals in recent sessions as traders are anticipating no action from the BOJ. Still, any dovish remarks or downbeat comments on the economy could draw bears back to the game and allow yen pairs to resume their climb.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were no match to dollar strength and also caved against European currencies. Australia’s CB leading index posted a 0.4% drop after previously indicating a 0.5% uptick while New Zealand reported a 0.1% dip in its food price index. New Zealand’s GDT auction is coming up and another gain in dairy prices could lead to a bounce for the Kiwi.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar made a feeble attempt at regaining ground as there were no major reports to give it a boost yesterday. Only the existing home sales report is up for release today and a dip from 5.60M to 5.52M is expected.
EUR
The euro slumped against most of its counterparts as the terror attacks in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland weighed heavily on investor confidence in the region. Data from the euro zone was stronger than expected, as German PPI posted a 0.3% gain versus the projected 0.1% uptick while the current account balance showed a larger than expected 28.48 million EUR surplus.
GBP
The pound drew a bit of support from the stronger than expected CBI realized sales index, which jumped from 26 to 35 instead of falling to 20. Only the UK public sector net borrowing report is due today and a larger 11.5B GBP reading is eyed, compared to the earlier 4.3B GBP figure.
CHF
The franc was mostly stuck in consolidation even after the Swiss trade balance printed a larger than expected 3.64B CHF surplus versus the projected 3.57B CHF figure. This was also significantly larger than the earlier 2.66B CHF surplus. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is due today.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent gains to its counterparts after the BOJ refrained from making any policy changes. Still, it’s worth noting that the central bank upgraded its growth outlook. Japan’s all industries activity index is due today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed, slower compared to the earlier 0.2% gain.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to slide on risk aversion but the Loonie managed to get a bit of a boost from stronger than expected Canadian manufacturing sales. The report printed a 1.1% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. In New Zealand, the GDT auction broke its positive streak with a 0.5% dip in dairy prices. US crude oil inventories and New Zealand’s Q3 GDP reading are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar advanced steadily against its peers as the week drew to a close, as economic data from the US was slightly stronger than expected. New home sales rose from 563K to 592K versus the projected 575K figure while the UoM consumer sentiment index was upgraded from 98.0 to 98.2. There are no reports due from the US today as banks are closed for the holidays.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it tried to stay afloat against the dollar and the yen but ended up sliding to the pound and commodity currencies. Euro zone data was stronger than expected, as the GfK German consumer climate index improved from 9.8 to 9.9 while French consumer spending saw a stronger than expected 0.4% gain.*
GBP
The pound was mostly stuck in consolidation despite seeing stronger than expected UK economic reports. The current account deficit was smaller than expected at 25.5 billion GBP while the previous reading was upgraded to show a narrower shortfall as well. The final GDP reading was upgraded from 0.5% to 0.6% for Q3.*
CHF
The franc held its ground against most of its peers until the end of the week despite a weaker than expected KOF economic barometer reading. The figure held steady at 102.2 instead of improving to the consensus at 103.1.*
JPY
The yen was still in a weak spot for the most part, although it managed to chalk up some gains against the comdolls. There were no reports out of Japan then while today has household spending and CPI readings due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the weakest of the bunch as Canada reported a 0.3% monthly GDP contraction instead of the projected 0.1% uptick. There were no other reports out of New Zealand and Australia but the US-China tensions appear to be dampening confidence in their export industry.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
Since most markets were still closed for the holidays, dollar action was relatively subdued throughout Monday. There were no major reports released and US equities squeezed out modest gains. Markets reopen today and the US will print its CB consumer confidence index and Richmond manufacturing index.
[B]European Currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF)[/B]
The euro was on slightly weaker footing as the ECB told Italian bank Monte dei Paschi it needs 8.8 billion EUR to recapitalize. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, although markets are set to reopen as well. The pound traded mostly sideways and could continue to do so for today, as UK banks are still closed for the holidays. Franc trading could be filled with consolidation also.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen seems to have shrugged off the downbeat figures printed from Japan as risk aversion is propping the lower-yielding currency up. Household spending sank 1.5% on a year-over-year basis instead of rising by 0.2% while the unemployment rate rose from 3.0% to 3.1%. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.6% drop, worse than the projected 0.4% decline, while the national core CPI was down 0.4% versus the estimated 0.3% dip. BOJ core CPI and Japanese housing starts data are due next.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls weakened for the day as risk aversion seemed to be lingering in the markets. Tensions between China and Taiwan have dampened investor sentiment in the Asian region while concerns about Trump’s trade renegotiation plans weighed on commodities as well. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar advanced against most of its peers as risk aversion was in play and data from the US came in stronger than expected. The CB consumer confidence index rose from an upgraded 109.4 reading to 113.7 versus the 108.9 consensus while the Richmond manufacturing index improved from 4 to 8, outpacing the estimate at 5. Pending home sales data is due today and a 0.6% increase is expected.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro struggled to recover against the dollar but managed to score more wins to the commodity currencies. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday and none are due today, leaving traders to keep close tabs on other headlines from the region.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was in a weak spot against most of its peers as there were no reports to keep it supported. UK banks were still closed for the holiday yesterday and are set to reopen today. BBA mortgage approvals data is due and a rise from 40.9K to 41.6K is expected.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen continued to advance against its peers despite weak inflation and household spending data from Japan. Yen pairs eventually made a bit of a bounce after retail sales beat expectations with a 1.7% year-over-year gain versus the estimated 0.9% uptick. Preliminary industrial production came in at 1.5%, short of the projected 1.8% rise. Housing starts also missed expectations with a 6.7% gain versus the projected 9.6% figure.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls weakened to the dollar and the yen as risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies recently and none are due today so risk sentiment could continue to drive price action.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
Price action for dollar pairs was still subdued even as US data disappointed. Pending home sales slipped 2.5% instead of posting the projected 0.6% increase. Initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, and preliminary wholesale inventories are up for release today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro continued to advance against its peers as traders seemed to shrug off Italian banking sector concerns. There were no reports out of the region yesterday while today has only a few low-tier figures lined up, namely private loans, M3 money supply, and the Italian 10-year bond auction.
[B]GBP
[/B]
The pound also struggled to establish a clear direction in recent trading as UK data missed expectations. BBA mortgage approvals came in at 40.7K, down from the earlier 40.8K figure and short of the estimated 41.6K reading. Nationwide HPI is up for release today and a 0.2% uptick in house prices is eyed.
[B]JPY[/B]
Yen pairs moved mostly sideways as Japan paused from releasing downbeat data. Recent reports have been mostly in the red, although retail sales reflected a stronger than expected 1.7% rise versus the 0.9% consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could be in play.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls continued to reel from risk aversion as there were no upbeat reports to save the day. US crude oil inventories data is due today and a draw of 1.3 million barrels is eyed, easing fears of an oversupply and boosting prices. Australia is set to print its private sector credit data next.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar gave up ground against most of its major counterparts early in the year as traders are probably bracing for some adjustments ahead of Trump’s inauguration. US banks are still closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be thin and dollar pairs could be sensitive to market sentiment.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro regained some ground against most of its rivals so far even as there have been no reports from the region. Final manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies are lined up today and any improvements could allow the shared currency to hold on to its recent wins.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was able to recover against some of its peers as well even though UK banks are closed for today. Traders are gearing up for more top-tier catalysts due later on, such as the PMI readings from the manufacturing, services, and construction sectors.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc had a volatile time at the end of 2016 as traders likely booked profits off their positions then. Swiss banks are closed for the holiday today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen gave up some of its recent gains to start the year as Japanese banks were closed for the holidays. Traders are also pricing in their reaction to last week’s disappointing reports from Japan, with many speculating that the BOJ would need to ramp up its easing efforts.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls are struggling to regain ground against the dollar but remain mostly weak, especially China reported declines in its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI over the weekend. The former fell from 51.7 to 51.4 while the latter dipped from 54.7 to 54.5.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]