[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar was mostly stronger on Friday but it gave up ground to the Japanese yen. US CB leading index climbed 0.6% versus the 0.5% forecast and the earlier reading. There are no reports due from the US economy today so low liquidity conditions could be expected unless there are any major catalysts from the headlines.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro was in a weak spot against its peers as traders paid closer attention to political risks from Italy and Greece’s resurfacing debt problems. Euro zone current account balance beat expectations with a 31 billion EUR surplus compared to the 28.7 billion EUR estimate. German PPI is due today and a 0.3% uptick is eyed, higher than the previous 0.4% increase in price levels.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was also in a weak spot when the UK retail sales report came in weaker than expected with a 0.3% drop in consumer spending compared to the estimated 1.0% growth. This reveals that the consumer sector is already reeling from the surge in price levels and the slow growth in wages. UK Rightmove HPI is due today and a 2.0% increase in house prices is eyed.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers but it managed to advance against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so the franc could move to the tune of market sentiment for the rest of the day.
[B]JPY[/B]
The Japanese yen was one of the bigger winners of the previous trading sessions, supported by a bit of risk aversion stemming from geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, Japan printed a weaker than expected trade surplus of 0.16T JPY compared to the estimated 0.28T JPY figure and the earlier 0.33T JPY surplus.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were no match to dollar and yen strength last Friday but they did manage to chalk up wins against the European currencies. Canada’s foreign securities purchases came in below expectations, signaling weaker demand for the Loonie. Over the weekend, New Zealand’s quarterly PPI input reading showed a 1.0% increase while the output component printed a larger than expected 1.5% gain.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[/I]
USD
The US dollar was able to rake in some gains even though traders were out on a Presidents’ Day holiday yesterday. Futures are pointing to a strong open today and stocks could sustain their gains if earnings come in strong and Trump drops more hints about his tax reform plan. FOMC members Kashkari and Harker have testimonies lined up today.
EUR
The euro continued to chalk up losses against its peers as geopolitical risks in France and debt troubles in Greece and Italy are weighing on the shared currency. Euro zone consumer confidence dipped from -5 to -6 to reflect increased pessimism. Flash manufacturing and services PMI readings are due from Germany and France today.
GBP
The pound was still under a bit of selling pressure to the dollar but it managed to advance against most of its other counterparts as the first day of the Brexit debates in the House of Lords went by without any major glitches. These talks could continue to keep the pound in consolidation until the outcome is announced this week or the next. The BOE Inflation Report hearings are scheduled today.
CHF
The franc was also in a weak spot, thanks to all the troubles weighing on Europe these days. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance lined up. A wider surplus of 3.03 billion CHF is eyed, compared to the earlier 2.72 billion CHF.
JPY
The yen was able to chalk up some gains against the European currencies but was mostly weaker to the dollar and comdolls. The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI jumped from 52.7 to 53.5 instead of falling to 52.1 to reflect a faster pace of growth. The all industries activity index is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie resumed its rally after the RBA minutes also turned out less dovish than expected. Canadian wholesale sales were up 0.7% versus the 0.4% forecast, also shoring up some gains for the Loonie as well. New Zealand will be holding its Global Dairy Trade auction in the next Asian session and another gain in prices could boost the Kiwi.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was mostly stuck in consolidation against its peers as downbeat medium-tier data cast doubts on a March rate hike. The Markit flash manufacturing PMI fell from 55.0 to 54.3 versus the 54.7 consensus while the services PMI slid from 55.6 to 53.9 instead of improving to the projected 55.8 figure. FOMC member Harker confirmed his view that three rate hikes are possible this year and that one may be underway in March, but he also cautioned that data misses could discourage him to vote for tightening. US existing home sales and the FOMC minutes are lined up today.
EUR
The euro failed to benefit from mostly stronger than expected flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France, as the shared currency was dragged lower by headlines. Political troubles are still looming over France and Italy while Greece is encountering roadblocks to securing its next tranche of bailout funds. German IFO business climate data is due next, along with final CPI readings.
GBP
The pound was able to put up a good fight against its peers as the discussions on the Brexit plans in the House of Lords seem to have gone by smoothly so far. Officials will continue to debate these plans and might announce their decision next week so pound traders remain on edge. On the data front, the public sector net borrowing report showed a larger 9.8 billion GBP deficit. The UK second estimate GDP is due today and no revisions to the 0.6% growth figure are eyed.
CHF
The franc remained under selling pressure, thanks to the uncertainties in the euro zone. Swiss trade balance was stronger than expected at a surplus of 4.73 billion CHF versus the projected 3.03 billion CHF figure. Credit Suisse economic expectations data are up for release today.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it functioned mostly as a counter currency and reacted to country-specific events. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI printed a stronger than expected read while its all industries activity index indicated a slightly larger 0.3% fall. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly stronger against their peers, even after New Zealand reported a 3.9% fall in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction. Australian construction work done sank 0.2% instead of rising by 0.5% in Q4 while the wage price index came in line with expectations of a 0.5% gain. Canadian retail sales figures are due next, with the headline figure projected to post a 0.1% uptick and the core figure expected to show a 0.8% gain.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a good start but wound up retreating when the FOMC minutes were released. Even though policymakers judged that a rate hike is appropriate “fairly soon” they did specify that this hinges on whether or not incoming jobs and inflation reports turn out strong or at least in line with their expectations. Some policymakers also warned about the risks of a higher dollar. Initial jobless claims and a speech by FOMC member Kaplan are lined up today.
EUR
The euro took a sharp tumble at the start of the European session as debt concerns in Greece and Italy weighed on sentiment. However, the shared currency enjoyed a strong bounce when headlines suggested that Le Pen would be facing stiff competition from newcomer Macron who gained support of popular French politician Bayrou. The German IFO business climate index also beat expectations by rising from 109.9 to 111.0 instead of dipping to 109.6. Euro zone final GDP and German GfK consumer climate are due next.
GBP
The pound was dragged lower by the rest of its European peers but managed to hold some ground thanks to an upward revision in its preliminary GDP from 0.5% to 0.7%. However, preliminary business investment tanked 1% versus the projected flat reading. Only the CBI realized sales index is due today and traders could put their attention back to the Brexit discussions in the House of Lords.
CHF
The franc was also reacting to uncertainties in the European region as it performed poorly against most of its peers. The Credit Suisse economic expectations index rose from 18.5 to 19.4 to indicate an improvement in outlook. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen enjoyed safe-haven flows from the European currencies and was also able to catch some gains versus the dollar. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday but the currency seems to be taking advantage of anti-dollar action in the midst of risk aversion.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Canadian retail sales turned out much weaker than expected as the headline figure printed a 0.5% drop instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while the core reading showed a 0.3% decline instead of the estimated 0.8% gain. Australia’s private capital expenditure report showed a surprise 2.1% drop versus the projected 0.4% dip. Crude oil inventories are due next and a large buildup could be bearish for the Loonie.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar chalked up another day of losses as traders are starting to get weary of waiting for Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reform announcement. According to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, it will take until 2018 or so before the impact of the policy changes kick in and GDP growth could reach 3% at best, not the 4% expansion promised during the election campaign. New home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment data are due today.
EUR
The euro made a bit of a rebound against its peers as more polls indicated that Macron could overtake Le Pen in the French elections. This eases fears of a Frexit and further instability in the region. Germany’s final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4% as expected but the GfK consumer climate index fell from 10.2 to 10.0 instead of improving to 10.3. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound broke higher against most of its forex counterparts when news of another potential Scottish referendum broke out. Keep in mind that Scotland voted to stay in the EU during the referendum last year but has previously held a national vote whether or not to stay in the UK. With that, renewed uncertainty in the region could push the pound back down, although price action also hinges on the discussions in the House of Lords.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the euro, consolidated to the pound, and gave up ground against most of its other peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment and country-specific updates could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The Japanese yen was unable to establish a clear direction in recent trading as it also reacted mostly to country-specific catalysts. There are still no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the main driving force for yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie encountered some headwinds from weaker than expected private capital expenditure data and a bit of jawboning from RBA head Lowe. US crude oil inventories posted a smaller than expected increase of 0.6 million barrels in stockpiles so the Loonie stayed supported. Canadian CPI numbers are due today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core figure to post a 0.1% downtick.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained some ground against its peers on Friday as traders booked profits off their short positions earlier in the week. Besides, expectations for Trump’s tax plan announcement are running high once more since he is scheduled to have a speech on Tuesday. US durable goods orders and pending home sales data are due today, along with a speech by FOMC member Kaplan.
EUR
The euro got back on its feet against the pound and comdolls but was still much weaker to the Japanese yen. There were no reports released from the euro zone on Friday while today has Spanish flash CPI and M3 money supply figures due. Reports indicating that Le Pen could lose the elections might also drive the shared currency higher on lower chances of a Frexit.
GBP
The pound had a volatile run on reports that Scotland would pursue another referendum on their membership in the UK. Recall that this vote already happened in the past and that Scotland actually voted to stay in the EU in last year’s referendum. Over the weekend, PM May mentioned that they would move to end the free movement of EU migrants to the UK by March.
CHF
The franc was still in a weak spot against most of its peers as political troubles in the EU continue to keep traders on edge for potential SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has a speech by SNB member Zurburgg.
JPY
The yen was the big winner for the day as the pickup in risk aversion worked out to its benefit. There were no reports out of Japan recently while the next Asian session has preliminary industrial production and retail sales due. The latter could show a faster pickup of 1.0% compared to the earlier 0.7% uptick while the former could print a slower 0.4% gain.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls showed some weakness on Friday as risk aversion came back into play. Canada’s CPI readings came in better than expected with a 0.9% increase in the headline figure and a 0.5% uptick for the core reading. In Australia, company operating profits surged 20.1% versus the projected 8% gain for Q4. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next and a 3 million NZD deficit is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar initially sold off upon seeing mixed durable goods orders results and a sharp drop in pending home sales. Headline durable goods orders rose 1.8% versus the projected 1.6% rise while core durable goods orders fell 0.2% instead of increasing by 0.5%. US President Trump admitted that they’re not ready to announce tax reform plans until a proposal to replace Obamacare is made but said that he will announce something on infrastructure and security spending in his speech in front of the joint sessions of Congress today. US preliminary GDP data is also due and an upgrade from 1.9% to 2.1% is eyed.
EUR
The euro made a bit of a recovery against its peers when more polls indicated that Macron is advancing against Le Pen, thereby reducing odds of a Frexit. French consumer spending, CPI and GDP are lined up today and upbeat readings could mean more gains for the shared currency. In the meantime, headlines on Italy and Greece could also influence euro trading for the rest of the week.
GBP
The pound took some hits as Scottish referendum talks intensified. FM Sturgeon mentioned that they might call for a vote once the UK triggers Article 50 by March, as the nation actually voted to stay in the bloc during the EU referendum last year. There are no reports due from the UK today so Brexit talks in the House of Lords could also have an impact on pound price action.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers but wound up advancing to its European rivals. There were no surprises in SNB member Zurbrugg’s speech yesterday while there are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The Japanese yen returned some of its recent gains on profit-taking and a bit of improvement in dollar demand. Data from Japan came in mixed as the preliminary industrial production report showed a surprise 0.8% dip versus the projected 0.4% increase while the retail sales report printed a 1.0% rise versus the estimated 0.9% gain. Japanese housing starts data is due next and a slower gain of 3.3% compared to the earlier 3.9% reading is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls moved mostly sideways or in reaction to currency-specific events as there were no major market events yesterday. New Zealand printed a wider trade deficit of 285 million NZD from the earlier 36 million NZD shortfall. Underlying Canadian inflation figures are up for release and this should provide some clues on how the BOC statement might sound like later this week.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a weak start in the absence of upgrades in its Q4 GDP reading of 1.9% but soon recovered upon seeing stronger Chicago PMI and Richmond manufacturing index readings. Dollar traders appear to be holding out for Trump’s speech during which is is set to unveil infrastructure spending and security spending plans. As for data, US personal spending and income, along with the core PCE price index, are lined up today. The ISM manufacturing PMI is also up for release and a rise from 56.0 to 56.2 is expected.
EUR
The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains as more polls indicated that French candidate Le Pen is losing her lead, thereby reducing odds of a Frexit. Medium-tier reports from France and Italy printed mixed results, with French consumer spending and GDP meeting expectations and Italian CPI beating consensus with a 0.3% gain. German preliminary CPI and Spanish manufacturing PMI are lined up today, along with German unemployment change data and final manufacturing PMI readings.
GBP
The pound slid lower to its peers when the odds of a Scottish referendum happening soon increased. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a small dip from 55.9 to 55.7 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth is expected. A larger drop could confirm that Brexit risks are starting to take their toll on economic performance and set the tone for the rest of the PMIs due later in the week.
CHF
The franc continued to advance against its European counterparts and even chalked up some wins to the yen. The Swiss KOF economic barometer rose from an upgraded 102.0 reading to 107.2, outpacing the consensus at 102.2 to reflect a strong improvement in current conditions and outlook. The UBS consumption indicator is lined up today and a climb from the earlier 1.50 figure could be positive for the franc.
JPY
The Japanese yen gave up ground to most of its counterparts, except for the Canadian dollar. Japanese housing starts came in stronger than expected at 12.8% versus 3.3% while capital spending for the previous quarter rose 3.8% versus 0.6%. The final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 53.5 to 53.3 instead of being upgraded to the 53.6 consensus.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was the big loser for the day even with mixed underlying inflation reports, as traders appear to be bracing for a downbeat BOC statement later today. In their previous meeting, the central bank upgraded GDP forecasts but Governor Poloz warned that a rate cut is still on the table. Earlier today, Australia printed a stronger than expected 1.1% growth figure versus the 0.7% consensus while China’s PMI readings came in mostly stronger than expected. The official manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.6 while the Caixin version improved from 51.0 to 51.7 versus the consensus at 50.9. RBNZ head Wheeler also has a speech coming up.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar continued to rally against its counterparts as traders focused on Fed rate hike talks and the fact that Trump sounded more presidential in his recent testimony in front of Congress. Economic data was also mostly stronger than expected, with the ISM manufacturing PMI up form 56.0 to 57.7 versus the 56.2 forecast. Core PCE price index came in line with expectations of a 0.3% gain while personal income picked up by 0.4% versus 0.3% to reflect stronger wage growth. Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims data are due today.
EUR
The euro rallied on mostly upbeat data but wound up returning its intraday gains. German unemployment fell by 14K versus the projected 10K drop while final manufacturing PMI readings printed mixed results. German import prices, Spanish unemployment change, and flash CPI estimates are lined up today. Weaker inflationary pressures could underscore Draghi’s view that the pickup has just been temporary, keeping the ECB on its dovish stance.
GBP
The pound tanked across the board when the Brexit bill continued to encounter friction in the House of Lords. Amendments to the status of UK citizens in EU nations are being urged so this could mean a delay in Prime Minister May’s Article 50 timeline and more uncertainty. UK manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected by falling from 55.7 to 54.6 versus the estimated rebound. The construction PMI is due today and no change to the earlier 52.2 reading is eyed.
CHF
The franc consolidated to the euro but picked up against the pound and Japanese yen. Swiss manufacturing PMI climbed from 54.6 to 57.8 to reflect a much faster pace of industry expansion while the UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.38 to 1.43. Swiss GDP is due today and a 0.5% expansion is eyed.
JPY
The yen was in a weak spot against some of its counterparts as demand for the dollar picked up again. There were no major reports out of Japan then so the moves were mostly due to changing market sentiment. Japanese household spending and CPI figures are due in the next Asian session.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was unable to gain much traction even after the GDP report printed a stronger 1.1% growth versus the projected 0.7% figure. China’s PMI readings also beat expectations, signaling stronger demand for Australia’s raw material products. The BOC kept rates on hold at 0.50% as expected while downplaying the recent increase in employment and inflation. Canada’s GDP is due next and a 0.3% expansion is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar continued to advance against its peers as risk aversion came into play. Initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected and traders continue to expect strong jobs momentum, which could confirm a Fed rate hike in March. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is lined up and no change to the earlier 56.5 figure is eyed. Traders are also likely to pay close attention to FOMC head Yellen’s testimony, along with speeches from other voting members Fischer, Evans, and Powell.
EUR
The euro continued to recover against most of its peers, particularly the comdolls as political risks seemed to subside. Still, it’s worth noting that reports showed Greece asking for financial assistance from the World Bank, which means that its debt troubles are far from over and that a default remains possible. The headline CPI flash estimate came in at 2.0% versus 1.9% while the core reading came in line with consensus at 0.9%. German retail sales and final services PMI readings are due.
GBP
The pound was still in a weak spot but it managed to advance against the commodity currencies as Prime Minister Theresa May seems less inclined to give in to any Brexit delays. UK construction PMI ticked up from 52.2 to 52.5 instead of holding steady. Services PMI is due today and a fall from 54.5 to 54.2 is eyed, likely resulting to some pound losses if the actual reading disappoints.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned mostly as a counter-currency. A bit of weakness can be observed as this Swiss currency has also been tracking the performance of gold, and the precious metal chalked up losses in recent sessions. Swiss retail sales showed a smaller than expected 1.4% fall versus the projected 2.0% slump. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen continued to stay strong against its peers, taking advantage of risk-off moves in the market. Recent reports turned out mixed, with household spending down 1.2% versus the projected 0.3% dip and the Tokyo core CPI posting a 0.3% drop in price levels instead of the estimated 0.2% uptick. The national core CPI printed a 0.1% increase instead of staying flat while Japanese consumer confidence slid from 43.2 to 43.1 instead of improving to 43.7.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the big losers for the day as risk aversion came into play. Canada’s December GDP came in line with expectations of a 0.3% expansion but the oil-related currency dipped as natural gas storage in the US showed a buildup in stockpiles. In New Zealand, ANZ commodity prices recovered by 2.0%. Australia’s trade surplus came in short of estimates for January due to a 3% drop in exports.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar staged a strong rally against its peers late on Friday after FOMC policymakers confirmed the possibility of a March Fed rate hike. Yellen admitted that waiting too long to tighten could also be harmful for the economy and that they are simply waiting to see if inflation and employment come in line with their expectations before hiking. US factory orders data is due today and FOMC member Kashkari will deliver a speech.
EUR
The euro also advanced against its peers on Friday despite mixed data. German retail sales and the region’s overall consumer spending figure both missed expectations but final services PMI reports were slightly better than expected. Polls continue to show Macron leading against Le Pen, easing fears of a Frexit and further instability. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence and retail PMI are lined up today.
GBP
The pound was still mostly weaker on Friday after the services PMI printed a weaker than expected reading. The index fell from 54.5 to 53.3, lower than the expected 54.2 reading and indicative of a slower pace of expansion. BOE MPC member Hogg has a testimony due today but pound price action could be more sensitive to Brexit-related updates.
CHF
The franc chalked up some gains against its counterparts towards the end of the week as risk aversion was still in play, particularly in the European region. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data left it sensitive to currency-specific events. Earlier in the day, Japanese consumer confidence fell from 43.2 to 43.1 instead of improving to 43.7. There are no reports due from Japan today so yen pairs could keep reacting to market sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the worst performers at the end of the week as the prospect of Fed tightening could dampen global demand and trade activity. Earlier today, Australia reported a 0.4% uptick in retail sales as expected and a 0.3% drop in its MI inflation gauge. The RBA statement is coming up in the next Asian session and a repeat of their earlier rhetoric could allow the currency to recover.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar held on to most of its recent gains as January factory orders came in slightly better than expected at 1.2% versus 1.1%. This marks the second consecutive positive reading, signaling strong manufacturing activity down the line. US trade balance is due today and a wider deficit of $47 billion is eyed.
EUR
The euro lost a lot of ground when news broke out that Juppe won’t be running for President in the upcoming elections. This led market watchers to fear that some of his supporters could give their votes to Le Pen, although her lead has been dropping against Macron. Euro zone retail PMI dipped from 50.1 to 49.9 to indicate contraction while the Sentix investor confidence index improved from 17.4 to 20.7.
GBP
The pound was also in a weak spot even though there were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday. UK Halifax HPI is due today and a 0.4% rebound in house prices is eyed. Earlier today, the BRC retail sales monitor showed a 0.4% downtick, slower than the earlier 0.6% drop.
CHF
The franc seems to be resuming its slide against its peers, taking the brunt of the European uncertainty plays instead of the euro and the pound. SNB foreign currency reserves data is due today and an increase from the earlier 644 billion CHF figure could be evidence of slight intervention.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it slid lower to the comdolls but advanced to the European currencies. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today, indicating that the currency is reacting to country-specific events and market sentiment. Japanese final GDP and current account balance are due in the next Asian session.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker against the dollar but they did manage to stem their declines against the euro and the pound. Australian retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% uptick and traders are awaiting a relatively upbeat RBA statement today. Canadian Ivey PMI is due next and a rise from 57.2 to 58.9 is eyed while New Zealand will have its GDT auction in the latter part of the US session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar held on to its recent gains, although the climb was slower. The headline trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit but components of the report indicated that both exports and imports picked up during the month. The ADP non-farm employment change reading is due today and this should provide some clues on how the Friday NFP might turn out. Analysts are expecting to see a 184K gain for the ADP report.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro gave back some of its recent gains as German factory orders printed a surprise 7.4% slump versus the projected 2.5% decline. The final GDP reading for the region was unchanged at 0.4%. German industrial production and French trade balance are up for release today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound slid against most of its peers as the Halifax HPI printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain. The UK government annual budget release is scheduled today but traders could continue to look to Brexit-related headlines for cues.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was in a weak spot against its peers as uncertainties in the European region dampened demand for the Swiss currency. Swiss foreign currency reserves increased from 648B CHF To 668B CHF to show a bit of intervention. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, an improvement over the earlier flat reading.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen was able to hold on to its gains despite mixed data, as risk aversion was in play. The final GDP reading was upgraded from 0.2% to 0.3%, lower than the projected 0.4% expansion, while the current account balance printed a smaller surplus than expected. Average cash earnings data is due in the next Asian session.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The Loonie shed some ground as the Ivey PMI printed a drop from 57.2 to 55.0 to show a slower pace of growth. In New Zealand, the GDT auction showed a 6.3% drop in dairy prices, adding to the earlier 3.2% slide. Chinese trade balance was also weaker than expected at a 60 billion CNY deficit versus the projected 173 billion CNY surplus. Crude oil inventories data is due next.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar raked in another round of gains when the ADP non-farm employment change figure beat expectations with a 298K versus the projected 188K figure. The previous report was also upgraded, hinting that the NFP could also have the same outcome. Initial jobless claims and import prices are up for release today but the focus is likely on the upcoming jobs release and next week’s Fed meeting.
EUR
The euro gave up ground to the dollar but tried to consolidate against its peers when medium-tier reports from the bloc came in mixed. German industrial production rebounded by 2.8% but the French trade balance printed a wider than expected deficit. The ECB decision is coming up today and even though no policy changes are expected, Draghi’s tone during the accompanying press conference could provide some clues on whether the central bank might be ready to taper or ease further.
GBP
The pound continued to slide in recent sessions even though there were no major reports out of the UK. There are no reports due today as well so pound price action could hinge on euro zone sentiment and overall market risk appetite.
CHF
The franc has been uneasy as it is also waiting for the ECB decision before deciding on a particular direction. Note that SNB officials have jawboned again recently and the foreign currency reserves showed a pretty notable increase, indicating that a bit of intervention may be in play. A dovish ECB statement could mean franc losses as well.
JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to its gains against other counterparts as risk aversion stayed in play. Japanese average cash earnings posted a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.3% figure while the previous reading was upgraded. Preliminary machine tool orders and the BSI manufacturing index are due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the biggest losers for the day, particularly the Loonie which was bogged down by the large increase in US crude oil stockpiles. The EIA report showed a buildup of 8.2 million barrels versus the projected increase of 1.1 million barrels. Earlier today, the Chinese CPI fell below expectations at 0.8% versus the projected 1.9% figure and the earlier 2.5% gain. PPI was stronger than expected at 7.8%, though.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar is treading carefully ahead of today’s NFP release. Analysts are expecting to see a 188K gain, lower than the earlier 227K increase, but leading indicators such as the ADP non-farm employment change are hinting at an upside surprise. Average hourly earnings could show a 0.3% gain, higher than the previous 0.1% uptick. Revisions to earlier data could also have a large impact on dollar action.
EUR
The euro staged a strong rally during the ECB statemet, as the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected but upgraded growth and inflation forecasts. During the presser, Governor Draghi said that there was no more urgency to ease as deflation risks are lower, signaling a shift to a less dovish bias. He also said that he isn’t nervous about upcoming elections in Germany and France. French industrial production and Italian quarterly unemployment rate is due today.
GBP
The pound was able to trail the euro and cash in a few gains of its own as sentiment improved in the European region. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday while today has the manufacturing and industrial production numbers due. Both are expected to post declines so a bit of pound weakness could be seen.
CHF
The franc was able to breathe a sigh of relief as the ECB didn’t sound too dovish this time. This eases the pressure on the SNB to intervene in the currency markets to keep the franc weak against the euro. Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could move to the tune of risk sentiment.
JPY
The yen continued to slide against its peers as traders are moving their funds back to the US dollar. Japan’s BSI manufacturing index was weaker than expected at 1.1 versus the projected improvement from 7.5 to 8.4. There are no reports due from Japan today but the yen could be sensitive to dollar action after the NFP release.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were still the weakest performers for the day as risk aversion stayed in play. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected at 0.8% versus the projected 1.9% figure. PPI was better than expected at 7.8% versus 7.6% signaling strong inflationary pressures later on. Canadian jobs data is also due today, with the headline reading expected to show a 4.8K decline in hiring. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.8%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to end the week strong as the NFP report printed a stronger than expected 235K increase versus the estimated 188K gain and the earlier month’s reading, which was upgraded from 227K to 238K. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.8% to 4.7% as expected but average hourly earnings was a notch short at 0.2% versus 0.3%. Only the Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is due today and traders are likely to position ahead of the FOMC rate increase.
EUR
The euro also kept up its climb until the end of the week as the shared currency got a strong boost from Draghi’s less dovish tone during the ECB presser earlier on. Actual economic data was mostly subpar as the German trade balance, French industrial production, and Italian quarterly unemployment rate missed expectations. On the other hand, German WPI was stronger than expected at 0.5%. Italian industrial production is due, along with another speech by Draghi.
GBP
The pound was in a weak spot as European flows went to the euro and away from the UK currency. UK manufacturing production was weaker than expected with a 0.9% slide versus the projected 0.6% dip. Goods trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit, though, which could be positive for trade and overall growth. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to country-specific events in the absence of top-tier reports from Switzerland. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so risk sentiment could push the franc around.
JPY
The yen gave up ground to its peers as US bond yields rose and revived demand for the dollar. Over the weekend, Japan’s core machinery orders report printed a weaker than expected 3.2% slide versus the projected flat reading while PPI came in at 1.0% as expected. Tertiary industry activity is due next and a 0.2% uptick is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Canada printed a stronger than expected employment change figure of 16.3K versus the projected 0.6K gain. This was enough to bring the unemployment rate down from 6.8% to 6.6%. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a 0.2% uptick in its food price index, slower than the earlier 2.8% gain. There are no other reports due from the comdolls for today, but Chinese industrial production numbers are lined up for the next Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar is tossing and turning ahead of the FOMC statement this week and the lack of top-tier data yesterday kept price action subdued. US PPI figures are due today, with the headline reading expected to show a 0.1% uptick and the core figure projected to come in at 0.2%.*
EUR
The euro gave back some of its recent gains when polls reflected a lead by French presidential candidate Le Pen once more. Draghi didn’t talk about monetary policy plans in his latest testimony, choosing to highlight the need to ramp up production growth in the euro area instead. German ZEW economic sentiment data is due today, along with euro zone industrial production data.*
GBP
There was a lot going on in the UK but the pound barely reacted to the news as it seemed to be pushed and pulled by opposing forces. For one, the House of Commons gave the green light for PM May to invoke Article 50 without giving lawmakers a larger say in the Brexit bill. Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister Sturgeon confirmed that she will seek permission to hold another referendum on independence by autumn 2018. Only the CB leading index is due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc clawed its way back against its peers as the lack of ECB dovishness meant lower odds of SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so traders could keep pricing in expectations for the upcoming SNB decision.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data left pairs trading on country-specific events and market sentiment. Japanese tertiary industry activity fell flat instead of showing the projected 0.2% uptick. The BOJ decision is also coming up and traders might be positioning for this event.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were still in a weak spot, as traders are anticipating slower global demand for commodities once the Fed increases borrowing costs. Economic data from China was mixed, with retail sales falling short of estimates at 9.5% versus the projected 10.5% reading. Industrial production improved to 6.3% while fixed asset investment came in stronger than expected at 8.9% versus 8.2%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar edged slightly higher against its peers as traders are pricing in expectations for a Fed rate hike in today’s FOMC statement. Market watchers will also pay close attention to updated growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the tone of Yellen in the presser. These should provide clues on whether or not three rate hikes can be implemented this year. PPI readings came in stronger than expected with 0.3% gains for both headline and core figures.
EUR
The euro gave back more of its recent gains as political headlines became the main driver of price action again. Polls are showing a lead for Le Pen while the formal investigation on Fillon could dampen his odds of winning, perhaps even forcing him to quit the race. German ZEW economic sentiment and euro zone industrial production fell short of estimates, and Italian retail sales are due next.
GBP
The pound was off to a rough start but eventually recovered against its peers. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the jobs report on tap. Claimant count could rise by 3.2K, erasing part of the earlier 4.6K drop, while the unemployment rate could stay unchanged at 4.8%. The average earnings index is expected to slide from 2.6% to 2.4%.
CHF
The franc advanced to the pound and the euro but gave up ground to the yen and dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the PPI lined up. This is expected to show another 0.4% uptick and ease deflation concerns in the area.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to country-specific events. However, it’s worth noting that rising US bond yields in anticipation of Fed rate hikes is dampening demand for Japanese bonds and the yen. Traders are also likely positioning or holding out for the BOJ statement later this week.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls held their ground even with dollar strength in recent trading as the crude oil market enjoyed a couple of positive updates. One was that the pickup in Saudi’s production was merely taken to domestic refineries instead of being sold in the global market and that the API report showed a 0.5M reduction in stockpiles. The EIA crude oil inventory report is due next, along with the New Zealand GDP which might show a slower 0.7% growth figure.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The Fed hiked interest rates by 0.25% as expected but the dollar sold off as traders booked profits and bulls seemed unimpressed by the lack in conviction. Still, Yellen said that it makes sense to keep hiking at a gradual pace as the economy continues to show improvements, but added that they have yet to adjust to incoming data and fiscal policy reform. The dot plot forecast still indicated three rate hikes for the year but one voting member dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged this time. Building permits and housing starts, along with the Philly Fed index and initial jobless claims, are due today.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up ground to the yen and commodity currencies. Italian retail sales and the region’s unemployment rate came in stronger than expected but political headlines seemed to be the main driver of price action. Final CPI readings are due today and no changes to the headline and core readings are eyed.
GBP
The pound barely got a boost from stronger than expected UK jobs data, even as the economy added 11.3K jobs in February versus the projected 3.2K reduction. The unemployment rate improved from 4.8% to 4.7% but the average earnings index slumped from 2.6% to 2.2%, lower than the 2.4% consensus, to hint that consumer spending would likely take a hit in the coming months. The BOE decision is scheduled today but not actual policy changes are eyed.
CHF
The franc also had a mixed performance as it reacted to country-specific events while traders are holding out for the SNB decision today. No actual policy changes are expected but the usual jawboning spiel could be in play as SNB foreign currency reserves increased recently.
JPY
The yen took advantage of dollar weakness and risk aversion to advance against its rivals. There were no major changes to policy in today’s BOJ monetary policy announcement so yen bulls were able to rest easy. The press conference is still coming up next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to get back on their feet, thanks to the dollar selloff and a reduction in EIA crude oil stockpiles. New Zealand reported 0.4% GDP growth in Q4 versus the projected 0.7% expansion and the earlier 1.1% growth figure. Australia’s jobs data was weaker than expected as the economy lost 6.4K jobs versus the estimated 16.3K gain and the unemployment rate rose from 5.7% to 5.9%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it reacted to country-specific events, particularly in the European region. Data came in mixed as well, with initial jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philly Fed index beating expectations while building permits fell short. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index is due today and a rise from 96.3 to 97.1 is eyed.
EUR
The euro was off to a weak start on political headlines but it was able to get back on its feet when a couple of ECB officials had upbeat remarks. For Nowotny, the central bank might consider increasing the deposit rate before making adjustments to the benchmark rate and asset purchases. Meanwhile, Praet acknowledged the recent improvements in the economy but clarified that the ECB might not be ready to reduce easing yet. Final CPI readings were unchanged and only the region’s trade balance is due today.
GBP
The pound shot higher after the BOE decision because, even though the central bank refrained from adjusting policy, the minutes revealed that Forbes voted for a hike. This signals a shift in the bias of the committee, although there’s a lot of work to be done before any actual tightening move is implemented. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc barely reacted to the SNB decision as the central bank refrained from making any major changes or big statements. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so franc pairs could move to currency-specific events or data.
JPY
The yen’s performance was also a mixed bag as it gave up ground to the European currencies but managed to stay afloat against the comdolls. The BOJ didn’t announce any key changes in their policy decision and there are no reports due today so market sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls edged slightly lower to the dollar and consolidated to the yen as traders appear to be waiting for the next big catalyst. Jobs data from Australia turned out weaker than expected as the economy lost 6.4K positions instead of gaining the projected 16.3K while the jobless rate rose from 5.7% to 5.9%. Canadian manufacturing sales data is due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way