Monday 5th October 2015
THE EURO closed higher on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high. Closes above the reaction high crossing would signal that a shortterm low has been posted.
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Monday 5th October 2015
STERLING closed higher on Friday. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off September’s high, the 75% retracement level of the AprilJunerally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
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Wednesday 7th October 2015
THE SWISS FRANC slipped lower on Tuesday, as disappointing U.S. employment data released on Friday prompted investors to push back their expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The dollar remained under pressure as weak U.S. jobs data on Friday underlined fears that a slowdown in global economic growth has spread to the U.S. economy and prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to early 2016. Markets shrugged off official data earlier showing that German factory orders declined in August. Factory orders also dropped in July.
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Wednesday 7th October 2015
THE SWISS FRANC slipped lower on Tuesday, as disappointing U.S. employment data released on Friday prompted investors to push back their expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The dollar remained under pressure as weak U.S. jobs data on Friday underlined fears that a slowdown in global economic growth has spread to the U.S. economy and prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to early 2016. Markets shrugged off official data earlier showing that German factory orders declined in August. Factory orders also dropped in July.
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Thursday 8th October 2015
SPOT GOLD was trading close to twoweek highs on Wednesday as expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off raising interest rates until next year continued to weigh on the dollar. Gold rallied on Tuesday, ending the session up after data showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in five months in August as exports dropped. Gold would benefit from any delay in raising U.S. interest rates as the precious metal would struggle to compete with yieldbearing assets. Higher rates would also boost the dollar, which would make dollardenominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
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Friday 9th October 2015
THE SWISS FRANC the greenback was lower against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF down. The dollar has come under pressure since last Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. jobs report prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike to next year. Earlier, Thursday’s data showed that the number of people filing first time claims for jobless benefits in the U.S. last week fell to the lowest level in almost 42 years, indicating that the labor market is continuing to tighten despite the slowdown in job creation. The Labor Department said the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending October 3 fell from the previous week’s downwardly revised total.
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Monday 12th October 2015
THE YEN the dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY last up 0.24%. The yen came under pressure as expectations for further central bank easing bolstered investor demand for riskier assets. In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s U.S. data on retail sales and Thursday’s data on consumer prices for fresh indications on the strength of consumer spending. The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.
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Tuesday 13th October 2015
THE YEN the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies in subdued trade on Monday, as declining expectations for a U.S. rate hike before the end of the year continued to weigh on demand for the greenback.Trading volumes were expected to remain thin on Monday, with U.S. markets closed for a national holiday. The dollar was lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.20%. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, published on Thursday, showed that most policymakers thought an initial rate hike should still come this year and that financial market turmoil had not “materially altered” the outlook for the U.S. economy.
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Tuesday 13th October 2015
SPOT GOLD rose to the highest level since August on Monday, as doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before the end of the year boosted the appeal of the precious metal. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an intraday peak per ounce, the most since August 24. The minutes underlined the view that the Fed will delay rate hikes until well into 2016 after a weak U.S. jobs report at the start of the month prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike.
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Tuesday 13th October 2015
STERLING closed up today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a threeweek high close today. More short covering was featured. The bears still have the overall nearterm technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some upside momentum recently, to suggest a nearterm market bottom is in place. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.15%, the lowest level since September 18.
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Tuesday 13th October 2015
STERLING closed up today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a threeweek high close today. More short covering was featured. The bears still have the overall nearterm technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some upside momentum recently, to suggest a nearterm market bottom is in place. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.15%, the lowest level since September 18.
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Monday 19th October 2015
THE EURO fell on Friday as the diverging monetary policy stance between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve pressured the single currency lower. EUR/USD retreated 0.35% in late trade, having hit a sevenweek high on Thursday, and ended the week 0.18% lower.The euro turned sharply lower on Thursday after ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said additional measures to boost price growth in the euro zone are needed. The remarks underlined expectations that the ECB will enlarge its quantitative easing program at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday.
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Tuesday 20th October 2015
THE YEN the dollar was steady against the yen, with USD/JPY up overall. Demand for the safehaven yen strengthened after data on Monday showed that China’s economic growth slowed to 6.9% in the third quarter, down from 7% in the previous quarter. The figure is the country’s slowest growth rate since 2009. A separate report showed that Chinese industrial production rose at a yearonyear rate of 5.7% in September, disappointing expectations for a 6.0% gain.
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Wednesday 21st October 2015
THE EURO The dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Tuesday, after the release of mixed U.S. data fuelled further uncertainty over the timing of a U.S. rate hike. The dollar was lower against the euro, with EUR/USD easing up 0.09%. The U.S. Commerce Department said that housing starts rose 6.5% to 1.206 million units last month from August’s total of 1.132 million units. Analysts had expected a figure of 1.140 million. Meanwhile, the single currency strengthened as investors looked ahead to a European Central Bank meeting later in the week amid speculation that it could flag plans to enlarge its stimulus program.
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Friday 23rd October 2015
THE EURO The Euro moved slightly higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, as the previous session’s U.S. housing sector data continued to support, while trading was expected to remain quiet with no major U.S. data to be released thoughout the day. The dollar was steady against the euro. The greenback strengthened mildly after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that housing starts rose 6.5% to 1.206 million units last month from August’s total of 1.132 million units. However, the report also showed that the number of building permits issued dropped by 5.0% to 1.103 million units from August’s total of 1.170 million.
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Monday 26th October 2015
THE YEN USD/JPY advanced 0.64% late Friday, the highest close since August 31. The pair gained 1.82% for the week. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike. Friday’s monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Japan will also be closely watched. The comments underlined the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in the rest of the world. The Fed is currently expected to start hiking interest rates sometime in early 2016.
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Tuesday 27th October 2015
STERLING closed up today. Prices closed near midrange today. The bulls and bears are still on a level nearterm technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Investors were looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Fed for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.28% at 96.92, pulling away from Friday’s twomonth highs of 97.30.
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Wednesday 28th October 2015
THE EURO fell slightly on Tuesday, as currency traders await the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s twoday October meeting on Wednesday afternoon for further indications on the timing of an interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank. Although the FOMC has hinted that it will likely hold shortterm interest rates at its current nearzero level at the meeting, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has still not ruled out a rate hike. The FOMC has left its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current level between zero and 0.25% for 55 consecutive meetings.
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Thursday 29th October 2015
THE EURO closed down today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a 2.5month low today. The bears have the firm nearterm technical advantage. The Fed was not expected to raise interest rates later Wednesday, but many investors still expected the U.S. central bank to signal that rates could still rise at its December meeting. Data on Tuesday showing that a key measure of U.S. business investment plans fell for a second straight month in September curtailed expectations for higher interest rates. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for company spending on equipment, fell 0.3% in September after a 1.6% decline in August.
Friday 30th October 2015
THE EURO closed higher today. The U.S. National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped 2.3% last month, disappointing expectations for a gain of 1.0%. Pending home sales in August fell by 1.4%, whose figure was revised from a previously reported drop of 1.4%. The data came after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the three months to September, missing expectations for growth of 1.6%. The U.S. economy grew 3.9% in the previous quarter. The single currency found some support after data earlier showed that the number of unemployed people in Germany decreased by 5,000 this month.
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