Oil prices fell on Monday, weighed by poor Chinese economic data and diminishing hopes of an agreement among OPEC and nonOPEC producers to cut output. Brent closed barely above $34.00 a barrel after briefly falling below the level, while WTI crude oil futures traded as low as $31.27 a barrel mid American session, bouncing roughly 50 cents by the end of the session. From a technical point of view, the price is currently trading around the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily decline, at 31.65, while the decline stalled a few cents above a horizontal 20 SMA in the daily chart. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned south, with the RSI indicator already in bearish territory, all of which suggests further slides are likely. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart, shows that the technical indicators head sharply lower below their midlines, while the price is well below the 20 SMA. A break below the mentioned daily low should signal further declines towards the 30.00 figure.
Support levels:31.20 30.60 30.00
Resistance levels:32.30 32.90 33.70
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WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices fell for a second day inarow, still weighed by Chinese poor data that triggered concerns about decreasing global demand. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell down to $29.70 a barrel during the American session, and remains stuck around $30.00. Adding to fresh markets concerns are expectations of larger stocks in the US, to be announced during the upcoming session, and fading hopes for an agreement on production cut. The daily chart shows that, after being rejected from the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily decline, the price is now struggling around the 23.6% retracement of the same rally, which suggests that further slides below the mentioned low can see the commodity returning to the 26.00 region. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hour chart, the bearish momentum is strong, given that the technical indicators head sharply lower near oversold territory, while the 20 SMA is turning lower well above the current level, in line with further declines.
Support levels:29.75 29.20 28.60
Resistance levels:30.60 31.30 32.10
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The EUR/USD pair rallied towards its highest since late October, reaching 1.1238 amid the continued dollar’s selloff. US data came out mixed, but weak, as the weekly unemployment claims resulted at 285K for the week ending Jan 29, worse than the expected 280K. Unit labor cost improved during the last quarter of 2015, up by 4.5% against expectations of a 3.9% advance, but nonfarm productivity during the same period shrank by 3.0%. Finally, further signs of manufacturing weakness came with the release of Factory Orders for December, down by 2.9% compared to the previous month. Hovering around the 1.1200 region as Wall Street wobbles between gains and losses by the end of the day, the pair has spent most of this last session on the day consolidating gains, as investors moved to waitandsee mode ahead of the release of the US employment report this Friday. The US economy is expected to have added around 195K new jobs in January, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5%, while wages are expected slightly higher. Anyway, it will take a really strong conjunction of numbers for the releases to give the greenback some support that can be exacerbated by profit taking ahead of the weekend. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but consolidate alongside with price, now horizontals near overbought levels. In the same chart, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope well below the current level, all of which maintains the latest bullish trend alive. Should the price extend beyond 1.1240, and end the week above it, there’s room for additional gains up to 1.1460, a major long term resistance during the upcoming week.
Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080
Resistance levels: 1.1240 1.1285 1.1320
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair rallied towards its highest since late October, reaching 1.1238 amid the continued dollar’s selloff. US data came out mixed, but weak, as the weekly unemployment claims resulted at 285K for the week ending Jan 29, worse than the expected 280K. Unit labor cost improved during the last quarter of 2015, up by 4.5% against expectations of a 3.9% advance, but nonfarm productivity during the same period shrank by 3.0%. Finally, further signs of manufacturing weakness came with the release of Factory Orders for December, down by 2.9% compared to the previous month. Hovering around the 1.1200 region as Wall Street wobbles between gains and losses by the end of the day, the pair has spent most of this last session on the day consolidating gains, as investors moved to waitandsee mode ahead of the release of the US employment report this Friday. The US economy is expected to have added around 195K new jobs in January, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5%, while wages are expected slightly higher. Anyway, it will take a really strong conjunction of numbers for the releases to give the greenback some support that can be exacerbated by profit taking ahead of the weekend. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but consolidate alongside with price, now horizontals near overbought levels. In the same chart, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope well below the current level, all of which maintains the latest bullish trend alive. Should the price extend beyond 1.1240, and end the week above it, there’s room for additional gains up to 1.1460, a major long term resistance during the upcoming week.
Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080
Resistance levels: 1.1240 1.1285 1.1320
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair rallied towards its highest since late October, reaching 1.1238 amid the continued dollar’s selloff. US data came out mixed, but weak, as the weekly unemployment claims resulted at 285K for the week ending Jan 29, worse than the expected 280K. Unit labor cost improved during the last quarter of 2015, up by 4.5% against expectations of a 3.9% advance, but nonfarm productivity during the same period shrank by 3.0%. Finally, further signs of manufacturing weakness came with the release of Factory Orders for December, down by 2.9% compared to the previous month. Hovering around the 1.1200 region as Wall Street wobbles between gains and losses by the end of the day, the pair has spent most of this last session on the day consolidating gains, as investors moved to waitandsee mode ahead of the release of the US employment report this Friday. The US economy is expected to have added around 195K new jobs in January, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5%, while wages are expected slightly higher. Anyway, it will take a really strong conjunction of numbers for the releases to give the greenback some support that can be exacerbated by profit taking ahead of the weekend. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but consolidate alongside with price, now horizontals near overbought levels. In the same chart, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope well below the current level, all of which maintains the latest bullish trend alive. Should the price extend beyond 1.1240, and end the week above it, there’s room for additional gains up to 1.1460, a major long term resistance during the upcoming week.
Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080
Resistance levels: 1.1240 1.1285 1.1320
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GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is ending the day pretty much unchanged, as a dovish BOE weighed on Pound. The Central Bank had its economic policy meeting, offering alongside with the latest decision, the quarterly inflation report. All of the MPC members agreed to leave rates unchanged, for the first time since July, with Ian McCafferty, abandoning the hawkish bias. The BOE slashed its growth forecast to 2.2% from previous 2.5%. Governor Carney, said that the next likely move in rates will be up, but a timing is for now, out of the table. Overall, the announcement was no surprise, with the Bank of England joining worldwide partners in their easing bias. The GBP/USD initially fell with the release, posting a daily low of 1.4528, but quickly recovered ground and set a daily high of 1.4667. From a technical point of view, the pair has been contained between Fibonacci levels, finding buyers on an approach to the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily slump, but unable to rally beyond the 50% retracement of the same decline. The pair presents a neutral stance in the short term, as the price is hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have no directional strength, stuck around their midlines.
Support levels:1.4570 1.4530 1.4490
Resistance levels: 1.4625 1.4660 1.4690
EUR/USD
Yellen did little for the greenback in her semianual testimony on economic policy before the Congress, as the currency ended the day mostly lower across the board. The EUR, however, ended the day down against its American dollar, as European shares finally closed in the green this Wednesday. The US Central Bank’s head said that “financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth,” but she also reiterated that they are ready for further tightening, should economic conditions allow. Despite the less dovishthanexpected stance, the greenback fell during the American afternoon, while stocks trimmed some of their early gains, and oil prices continued declining. During the upcoming Asian session, both China and Japan will be on holidays, pointing for some limited price action. For the most, markets have been and will likely continue trading on sentiment, with a doom outlook over worldwide economic growth. As for the EUR/USD, the pair fell down to 1.1160 before recovering above 1.1200, and rallied past former highs around 1.1245 ahead of the closing bell. The technical picture is still bullish, as in the 4 hours chart, the price has quickly recovered above a mild bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators resumed their advance within positive territory, presenting now sharp bullish slopes, after a limited downward corrective move. The line in the sand towards the downside is the 1.1120 as only below this level the pair can be at risk of further declines. In the meantime, investors are generally targeting the 1.1460 region, a major static resistance that contained the upside for most of this past 2015.
Support levels:1.1245 1.1200 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1290 1.1335 1.1380
GBP/USD
The British Pound was unable to attract investors, despite the generalized dollar’s weakness, and the pair ended the day in the red. The GBP/USD pair advanced up to 1.4563 during the Asian session, but the movement was faded early Europe, as oil prices fell down to fresh multiyear lows, while the UK bond yields plummeted to record lows. There will be no macro released in Britain this Friday, which means that the pair will continue trading on sentiment. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 20 SMA presents a strong bearish slope above the current level, in the 1.4490 region, while the technical indicators head higher within bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are aiming higher from their midlines, although with limited upward strength, while the price is struggling around a horizontal 20 SMA. A strong resistance continues being the 1.4520/30 region, as spikes beyond the level have result in sharp retracements several times over this last few days. Anyway and to confirm further rallies, the pair needs to advance beyond 1.4660, last week highs.
Support levels:1.4410 1.4385 1.4350
Resistance levels: 1.4490 1.4535 1.4560
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WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices bounced back on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate futures adding over $2.00, but held below $30.00 a barrel, ending a second week inarow in the red. After sinking to its lowest level in over 12years, the US benchmark bounced on some rumors suggesting worldwide producers are willing to cooperate on an output reduction, although there were no official announcement on it. Also, helping the commodity on Friday was the Baker Hughes report, showing that the US oil rig count fell for an eight straight week, down to 541 from previous 571. Nevertheless, the International Energy Agency warned last week that the excess of supply over demand is set to worsen, which means the long term outlook is still negative for crude. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price’s recovery stalled below the 50% retracement of the latest daily decline, measured between 33.57 and 26.03. The 20 SMA in the same chart converges with the 61.8% retracement of the same decline around 30.80, a critical resistance for this Monday, whilst the technical indicators bounced tepidly from oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart, oil presents a bullish tone, as the price stands above its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head slightly higher within positive territory.
Support levels:28.50 27.70 27.10
Resistance levels:29.90 30.80 31.50
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EUR/USD
Market’s improved mood was the theme of the day at the beginning of the week, as a sharp advance in the Chinese Yuan, and comments from China’s central bank chief playing down the likelihood of a oneoff devaluation, sent most Asian indexes sharply higher, resulting in strong gains also in European ones. In Europe, the release of the EU trade balance showed that the region recorded a €24.3bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in December 2015, compared to a year before, with exports and imports rising by 3% each, in the same period. Mario Draghi offered a testimony before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, but offered no surprises, reiterating that “the Governing Council will review and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.” The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1127 before bouncing some, but trading was limited in the US session due to a local holiday which kept stocks and banks closed. So far, the pair remained capped by selling interest around 1.1160, the immediate short term resistance for this Tuesday, although the pair may continue recovering ground, given that in the short term, the downside seems exhausted. In the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are bouncing from oversold readings, but the price is well below its moving averages, with the 20 SMA having crossed below the 100 and 200 SMAs, indicating upward moves may be barely corrective. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA is well above the current level, while the technical indicators have lost their bearish potential near oversold readings, also supporting the case of a short term recovery. Nevertheless, the pair needs to settle firmly above the 1.1200 figure to continue recovering, while below 1.1120, a critical support, the risk will turn towards the downside.
Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080
Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1245 1.1290
EUR/USD
The American dollar surged against most of its major rivals, helped by a sudden reversal in market’s sentiment, on renewed global woes. In the spotlight was once again oil, as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producers agreed to freeze output at January levels. Oil was trading higher ahead of the news, but suddenly reversed course, as the announce was quite short of market’s expectations for a production cut. Also, and as broadly expected, the German ZEW index disappointed, hit by market turmoil. According to February data, the assessment of the current situation fell to 52.3 from 59.7 in the previous month, while expectations dropped to 1.0 from a previous 10.2. In the US, the February 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to decline for local manufacturers, posting a largerthanexpected drop, down to 16.6.The EUR/USD pair edged lower for a third day inarow, stalling its decline in the 1.1120 region for a second day inarow. The short term picture points for a continued decline, as in the 1 hour chart, the price broke below the 20 SMA and remained below it during the American afternoon, whilst the technical indicators head lower within bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has accelerated its decline above the current level, now offering resistance around 1.1210, whilst the Momentum indicator hovers near oversold levels and the RSI indicator heads south around 34. A downward acceleration through the mentioned support should see the decline accelerating towards the 1.1040/50 region during this Wednesday.
Support levels:1.1120 1.1080 1.1045
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1210 1.1250
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EUR/USD
The American dollar ended the day mixed, with high levels of uncertainty across the board, resulting in choppy trading all across the financial world. The common currency came under pressure after the release of the Minutes of the latest ECB’s meeting, as the Governing Council indicated its willing and able to act in March, if needed, in line with what policy makers have been saying over the last few week. There were no relevant releases in Europe, but US data was quite encouraging, as weekly unemployment claims fell to 262K in the week ending Feb 12, while the Philadelphia manufacturing index declined by less than expected, resulting a 2.8. For this Friday, the country is expected to release its January inflation figures, expected slightly better than December ones. The positive market’s mood seen at the beginning of the day faded as the day went by, and the EUR/USD pair recovered from a daily low of 1.1070 printed after the release of positive US data, bouncing back above the 1.1100 level, but maintaining the weak tone seen on previous updates. The 1 hour chart shows that the price is currently battling with a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are still below their midlines, far from supporting a stronger advance. In the same chart, the 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA offering a strong dynamic support around 1.1160. In the 4 hours chart, the price is also below its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned slightly higher, also below their midlines, indicating limited buying interest at current levels.
Support levels:1.1080 1.1045 1.1000
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
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EUR/USD
The dollar faded its early strength on Friday, to end generally lower across the board. Some profit taking alongside with continued market turmoil has favored a recovery of safehaven assets, in spite US inflation data for January came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate unchanged on the month, and the core rate rising by 0.3%mom. Headline inflation in January is now double that in December at 1.4%YoY, with the core rate is now at 2.2%, above the previous 2.1%. European data was for the most soft, with German´s index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 2.4% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year, and by 0.7% compared to December 2015, while later in the day, data showed that consumer confidence in the Eurozone has plummeted to 8.8 in February from a reading of 6.3 the month before. Right after the closing bell, the EU reached a settlement deal with the UK, which diminishes dramatically chances of a Brexit, and therefore have strong bullish implications for the Pound. The EUR/USD pair closed the day with gains at 1.1129, after a fiveday losing streak. Technically the daily chart shows that the price has managed to hold above a still bullish 20 SMA, yet at the same time, the lower highs daily basis and the fact that the Momentum indicator turned south and nears its 100 level, suggests the risk remains towards the downside for the upcoming week. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite flat, with the technical indicators heading nowhere around their midlines, and the price stuck around a bearish 100 SMA.
Support levels:1.1080 1.1045 1.1000
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
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EUR/USD
The euro managed to steady on Tuesday while the pound extended losses to fresh cycle lows against the US dollar as appetite for risk lost momentum and concerns over a possible ‘Brexit’ continued to weigh. EUR/USD came under pressure during the European session on the back of disappointing German IFO report which showed business climate index fell to 105.7 in February, below the 106.8 reading expected, while the expectations index hit 98.8, its lowest level since November 2014. During the American afternoon US data came in mixed, but the dollar barely reacted.EUR/USD briefly fell below the 1.10 mark and posted its lowest level in three weeks at 1.0989 but managed to recover slightly and it has spent the last hours in a range just above 1.1000. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows indicators flat below their midlines while spot trades just below a flat 20SMA, maintaining a slight negative tone. In the 4 hours chart, RSI has already corrected oversold conditions and indicators remain in negative territory, favouring a downward continuation, with the 1.0900 area as next bearish target.
Support levels:1.0990 1.0962 1.0900
Resistance levels: 1.1050 1.1090 1.1140
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GBP/USD
The British pound extended losses into a third consecutive day on Wednesday and scored a fresh 7year low of 1.3877 during the European session amid uncertainty surrounding UK referendum on EU membership and fears of a ‘Brexit’. Even though GBP/USD managed to recover from lows as the greenback weakened during the New York session, the downside remains favored according to shortterm charts. In the 4 hours chart, the pair hovers well below a bearish 20SMA while indicators attempt to recover from lows. However, the RSI remains in oversold territory in 4 hours and daily charts, suggesting the pound might enjoy a phase of consolidation and even stage a mild bounce before resuming the fall. A break below 1.3850 would pave the way toward next target at 1.3652, which is the March 2009 monthly low.
Support levels: 1.3850 1.3800 1.3700
Resistance levels: 1.4000 1.4080 1.4155
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EUR/USD
The second revision of the US Q4 2015 rocked the forex board on Friday, by printing 1.0% well above the 0.4% expected. The American dollar closed the week broadly higher across the board, helped also by easing risk aversion, and economic woes in other major economies: earlier in the week, European PMIs’ came out well below previous readings and market’s expectations. Also, the UK set a date for the Brexit referendum, reviving fears of an excision in the union, and sending the Pound to its lowest in nearly 6 years. The EUR/USD pair fell towards the 1.0900 region, and according to the technical picture, further slides are to be seen, as the daily chart presents a clear bearish bias, as the price has accelerated its decline below its 20 SMA, whilst being capped by the 200 SMA for most of this past week. The 100 SMA in the same chart is the last standing man, around 1.0895, the immediate support for this week. In the same chart, the technical indicators head firmly lower within bearish territory, indicating a continued decline is most likely. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price remains near its Friday low at 1.0911, and below its moving averages, while the Momentum indicator continues heading south. The RSI indicator in this last time frame has posted a tepid bounce from oversold readings, but rather reflecting the latest recovery than suggesting an upward move in the short term. Some intraday lows around 1.0960 should offer resistance in the case of further advances, with a clear recovery above the level required to support the upward correction case.
Support levels:1.0895 1.0850 1.0810
Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1000 1.1045
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EUR/USD
The second revision of the US Q4 2015 rocked the forex board on Friday, by printing 1.0% well above the 0.4% expected. The American dollar closed the week broadly higher across the board, helped also by easing risk aversion, and economic woes in other major economies: earlier in the week, European PMIs’ came out well below previous readings and market’s expectations. Also, the UK set a date for the Brexit referendum, reviving fears of an excision in the union, and sending the Pound to its lowest in nearly 6 years. The EUR/USD pair fell towards the 1.0900 region, and according to the technical picture, further slides are to be seen, as the daily chart presents a clear bearish bias, as the price has accelerated its decline below its 20 SMA, whilst being capped by the 200 SMA for most of this past week. The 100 SMA in the same chart is the last standing man, around 1.0895, the immediate support for this week. In the same chart, the technical indicators head firmly lower within bearish territory, indicating a continued decline is most likely. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price remains near its Friday low at 1.0911, and below its moving averages, while the Momentum indicator continues heading south. The RSI indicator in this last time frame has posted a tepid bounce from oversold readings, but rather reflecting the latest recovery than suggesting an upward move in the short term. Some intraday lows around 1.0960 should offer resistance in the case of further advances, with a clear recovery above the level required to support the upward correction case.
Support levels:1.0895 1.0850 1.0810
Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1000 1.1045
EUR/USD
Worldwide turmoil increased as more signs of global economic slowdown have hit the wires this Tuesday, in the form of Markit Manufacturing PMIs. Starting in China, , the official manufacturing PMI survey declined by 0.4 point to 49.0 in February reaching its lowest level since November 2011, while the EU reading fell to a 12month low in February of 51.2 against previous 52.3, while in Japan, it declined to 50.1 from the previous 50.2. European data was no better, as the EU reading fell to a 12month low in February of 51.2 against previous 52.3. The rest of the major European economies, with the exception of Germany, printed readings below expectations, and neared the 50.0 mark. The only positive news came from Germany, as unemployment in the country decrease by 10,000 in February, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.2%. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 49.5 from 47.8 in January, still in contraction territory, while construction spending rose 1.5% in January, with increases in private and public spending. The EUR/USD pair, however, was unable to attract investors, slowly sliding towards the mentioned daily low, weighed by speculations the ECB may take some aggressive easing measures in its March meeting. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price has bounced some from the mentioned low, while the Momentum indicator heads higher within bearish territory, recovering from oversold readings. The fact that price did not follow the indicator suggests that bears are still in control. In the same chart, the RSI indicator consolidates near oversold readings, whilst the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope above the current level, all of which supports a test of the critical 1.0800/10 region, where buyers have been defending the downside pretty much since last December. Should the pair trigger the large stops suspected below this region, the decline will likely extend towards the 1.0700 region.
Support levels:1.0810 1.0770 1.0730
Resistance levels: 1.0890 1.0925 1.0960
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EUR/USD
Moody’s rating agency cut China’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative at the beginning of the day, citing rising government debt, falling foreign currency reserves, and uncertainty about the reform agenda. Asian shares, however, managed to close in the green, and Europe followed through, although US ones hovered in negative territory all through the day to close it practically flat. The main macroeconomic release was the US ADP employment survey, showing that the private sector added 214K new jobs during February and confirming continued strength in the jobs market. The dollar that was trading slightly higher ahead of the news, accelerated its advance, but the limited momentum of the American currency faded after Wall Street kicked in, with the currency poised to end the day on the red against all of its major rivals, but the EUR. The common currency continues to be pressured by speculation the ECB will add some sort of easing measure during the upcoming meeting, and ends this Wednesday with a lower low, and a lower high, for third day inarow. As for the technical picture, the intraday advance was not enough to reverse the dominant bearish trend, albeit the price has bounced after approaching the key support area at 1.0800/10. The 1 hour chart shows that the price continues developing below its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned flat below their midlines after bouncing from oversold levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have also bounced from oversold readings, but remain well below their midlines, while the 20 SMA caps the upside in the 1.0880/90 region, where the pair also presents multiple intraday highs from earlier this week, and the level to break to see the bearish pressure easing.
Support levels:1.0810 1.0770 1.0730
Resistance levels: 1.0890 1.0925 1.0960
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WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices spent the day consolidating its latest gains, with WTI futures printing a fresh 8week high of $35.30 a barrel, before retreating towards its daily opening. The bullish sentiment that surrounded the commodity during the last few days, has diminished after the release of overwhelming US stockpiles build last week, while the price has reached a major long term resistance region, as this Thursday’s rally stalled a few cents below the 100 DMA, currently at 35.60. From a technical point of view, the upward potential is now in pause, but still present given that in the daily chart, the price develops well above a now bullish 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator has bounced from near its midline and heads north within positive territory, while the RSI hovers around 58. In the 4 hours chart, the price retreated towards a still bullish 20 SMA, currently around 34.20 and the immediate support. The technical indicators in this last time frame had turned south within positive territory, indicating increasing chances of a downward move, particularly on a break below the mentioned 34.20 level.
Support levels:34.20 33.35 32.55
Resistance levels: 34.90 35.60 36.35
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