EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed in the red for a third consecutive week, with the greenback fueled by FOMC’s Minutes pointing for a soontocome rate hike in the US. On Friday, however, the pair consolidated its weekly losses, with the common currency finding some buyers on slides below the 1.1200 level against its American rival.The upcoming week will be quite busy in the macroeconomic front, with preliminary PMIs readings for the month of May in the EU quick starting the action this Monday. In the US, PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and GDP are among the most relevant releases, but attention will mostly focus in FED officials’ speeches, spread all through the week, and any wording supporting a June rate hike. Nevertheless, uncertainty over growth will also be among the main themes behind markets’ movements. As for the technical picture, the EUR/USD pair has traded as low as 1.1179 last Thursday, and while it’s still unable to break below the key 1.1200 figure, bounces from the lows have been quite shallow and contained by selling interest around 1.1280, the level to regain to see the downward pressure easing, at least in the short term. Currently trading around 1.1216, the pair is stuck around its 100 DMA, but the dominant trend is clearly bearish. A daily ascendant trend line coming from this year low of 1.0505 is placed this week in the 1.1050/1.1100 region, a probable bearish target should the dollar keep rallying.
Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1330
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EUR/USD
Market resumed dollar’s buying this Tuesday, sending the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1139 daily basis, level last seen on March 16th. The greenback began to advance during the Asian session, particularly against commodityrelated currencies, which pared losses in Europe, as the strong momentum in stocks helped them recover some ground. Overall higher, except against the Pound, the dollar is now poised to extend its rally, at least as FED’s officers maintain the hawkish tone in regards of a June rate hike. In Germany, the release of the ZEW survey showed that economic sentiment dropped to 6.4 in May, from 11.2 in April, but that assessment of the current situation rebounded after two drops, and came in at 53.1 in May, from 47.7 in April. The EU economic sentiment also fell, down to 16.8 in May from a previous 21.5. Further supporting the greenback were US New home sales, up to their highest level in eight years in March, as sales surged by 16.6% to a 619,000 annualized pace.The EUR/USD pair enters the Asian session with a strong bearish tone in its 4 hours chart, with the price far below a bearish 20 SMA, and the technical indicators still heading south, despite being in oversold levels. A daily ascendant trend line coming from December low of 1.0505 converges in the daily chart with the 200 DMA around 1.1080 a probable bearish target for this Wednesday, and the level to break to confirm a retest of the psychological 1.1000 figure. If somehow the common currency recovers ground, selling strong selling interest is expected to surge in the 1.1245/1.1280 region.
Support levels: 1.1120 1.1080 1.1040
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
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GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair kept rallying on Wednesday, reaching a fresh 3week high of 1.4728. The Sterling was underpinned by increasing evidence that the “remain” vote will likely end up winning the UK referendum. There were no relevant news in the UK, although this Thursday, the kingdom will release the second estimate of the Q1 GDP, initially estimated at 0.4%. In general, market is expecting a soft reading, in line with the macroeconomic figures released lately, which means that a reading of 0.4% or higher can support further Pound advances. Ahead of the Asian opening, the pair settled above the 1.4700, with a shortlived retracement in the US afternoon having met buying interest around 1.4685. In the 4 hours chart, the upward momentum is still strong, although the RSI indicator has turned flat around 70. Nevertheless, and with the pair having broken above the daily descendant trend line coming from early May high, the pair seems ready to extend its gains up to 1.4770 initially, with scope to extend up to 1.4920 should the mentioned resistance give up.
Support levels:1.4685 1.4640 1.4600
Resistance levels: 1.4730 1.4770 1.4815
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WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices closed the day lower after reaching a fresh yearly high at the beginning of the day, with WTI futures printing $50.19 a barrel on the back of falling US stockpiles. The black gold retreated from the psychological level, but holds around 49.30, and seems likely it may try to break above it again during the upcoming sessions, although gains beyond it are expected to be limited, as is not yet clear that the global glut is over. In the daily chart, the commodity keeps trading above a sharply bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have retreated partially from near overbought levels, but remain well above their midlines, providing little room for a steeper decline. In the 4 hours chart, the price is also holding above its 20 SMA that heads north a few cents below the current level, while the Momentum indicator turned south, but holds above the 60 level, and the RSI aims higher around 57, in line with the longer term outlook.
Support levels: 49.20 48.60.48.10
Resistance levels: 50.20 51.00 51.85
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GBP/USD
The British Pound was buoyed during the first half of the previous week, underpinned by Brexit fears easing further, amid opinion polls indicating the “remain” vote remains ahead. The GBP/USD pair surged up to 1.4739, the highest since May 3rd before retreating to the current 1.4600 region, down on broad dollar’s demand and a downward review of Q1 GDP. The UK’s GDP during the first quarter of 2016 was revised lower to 2.0% y/y from 2.1% in the preliminary estimate, below market’s expectations of a 2.1% reading. The quarterly reading, however, remained unchanged at 0.4%, showing growth remained tepid in the kingdom. Now trading around the 1.4600 figure, the daily chart shows that the price holds well above a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators retreat from near overbought levels, but remain within positive territory, suggesting the pair can continue grinding lower, particularly on an extension below 1.4600. The 4 hours chart presents a strong downward potential, as the price broke below its 20 SMA that lost its bullish slope and now caps the upside around 1.4650/60, while the Momentum indicator heads sharply lower below its 100 level and the RSI indicator consolidates around 46.
Support levels:1.4600 1.4570 1.4525
Resistance levels: 1.4655 1.4690 1.4730
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EUR/USD
The dollar closed the day modestly lower across the board, except against the Japanese yen which fell to a fresh 3week low against its American rival. Trading was extremely thin amid bank holidays in the UK and the US, but overall, the greenback’s decline seems corrective, as the overall sense that the FED will raise rates next June or July remains firm. The EU released several sentiment indexes this Monday, which came in generally positive, as consumer sentiment for May, remained unchanged at 7, but the business climate and the services sector came in better than expected, as well as future expectations. In Germany, CPI releases didn’t offer any major surprise, as inflation matched forecast for May, up 0.3% monthly basis, and 0.1% compared to a year before.The EUR/USD pair fell briefly below the 1.1100 figure, printing 1.1097 before bouncing some, to end the day up in the 1.1135 region. The upward movement was enough to erase the extreme oversold conditions reached in the short term, but overall, the bearish trend prevails, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price develops below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head south, with limited strength due to the absence of volume, within negative territory. The most relevant support continues being the 1.1080 level, where the 200 DMA converges with a daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 low, and a break below it should lead to further declines towards the 1.1000 region. Advances up to 1.1200, will likely be seen as selling opportunities by speculative interest.
Support levels: 1.1120 1.1080 1.1040
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
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EUR/USD
Monthend fixing alongside with poor US data sent the greenback lower across the board at the beginning of the US session, although the EUR/USD pair remained welllimited below the 1.1200 figure, to end the day pretty much unchanged, around the 1.1130/40 region. At the end of the day, the dollar is mixed, but mostly higher across the board. German data was again encouraging, with April Retail sales up by 2.3% compared to the same month a year before, and unemployment rate down to 6.1% in May. In the EU, however, inflation fell as expected by 0.1% according to May preliminary readings, down for a third month in the last four. In the US personal spending rose by 1.0% in April, the only good news of the day, as the Chicago Business Barometer fell 1.1 points to 49.3 in May from 50.4 in April, the lowest level since February. Also, consumer confidence decline further in May, down to 92.6 from previous 96.0. The EUR/USD pair continues to lack directional strength and consolidating near its recent lows, and in risk of a downward movement, given that in the daily chart, the price is barely holding above the daily ascendant trend line coming November low, today at 1.1090. Additionally, and in the mentioned time frame, the 20 SMA heads sharply lower and aims to break below the 100 SMA, both far above the current level. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart maintains the neutral stance, with the price unable to advance beyond a mild bearish 20 SMA and the technical indicators hovering within negative territory.
Support levels: 1.1120 1.1090 1.1040
Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245
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EUR/USD
The American dollar remained under selling pressure, on decreasing expectations of a Fed rate hike next June, following another round of US soft data. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 50.7, above the previously estimated 50.5, but down from 50.8 in April, pointing to the weakest manufacturing performance since September 2009. Also, US Construction Spending posted its biggest decline in more than five years in April, down by 1.8% against expectations of a 0.6% gain. The ISM Manufacturing index was the only positive note of the day, up from 50.8 to 51.3 in May.The EUR/USD pair advanced modestly, up to 1.1188, the highest for this week, and consolidates nearby as the day fades. Investor’s attention will now turn towards the upcoming ECB economic policy meeting early Thursday, in where the Central Bank is generally expected to maintain its economic policy unchanged, and offer a more optimistic outlook of the economy. Despite so, chances of a EUR sustainable rally are quite low, considering that, for this month, market’s expectations are focused in the June 15th FED´s meeting, and sharp price moves will likely wait until then.Anyway, and after plummeting over 500 pips during the past month, the EUR/USD pair seems to have found an interim bottom in the 1.1100 region. From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the price has managed to advance above its 20 SMA that has lost the downward slope, whilst the technical indicators are currently turning south, but within positive territory, limiting chances of a downward move for the upcoming hours. The pair has a strong static resistance in the 1.1230/40 region, being then, the level to break to confirm further short term gains this Thursday.
Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1090
Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1235 1.1280
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EUR/USD
The American dollar started the day with the wrong foot, broadly lower across the board, yet as the day developed, it managed to regain some ground, to end mixed. The EUR/USD pair reached a weekly high of 1.1213 early London session, but began to retreat with the release of EU PPI data for April, showing that industrial producer prices fell by 0.3%, leaving the yearonyear reading at 4.4%. Then, it was the turn for the ECB, which, as largely expected, left its economic policy unchanged. Draghi statement include references to the implementation of its corporate bondbuying and TLTRO II programs, and did the slightest revisions possible to growth and inflation for this year, with inflation now expected to be 0.2% against previous 0.1% for this 2016. Overall, it was more dovish thanexpected. In the US, attention focused on minor employment figures, with the ADP private survey showing that the economy created 173,000 new jobs in May, slightly below expected, whilst weekly unemployment claims came in at 267K for the week ended May 27, beating expectations of 270K. The news fueled the greenback ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report, expected to show that the US added 164K new jobs in May, whilst the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen down to 4.9%. The EUR/USD pair technical stance is still bearish, and will remain so unless the price recovers beyond 1.1230 a strong dynamic resistance as in the daily chart the 20 DMA and the 100 DMA converge there. In the 4 hours chart, the price is struggling around a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower around their midlines, indicating bears are in control. Should the decline extend beyond 1.1120, the risk turns towards a test of 1.1000/40 this Friday, on a strong US employment report.
Support levels:1.1120 1.1085 1.1040
Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1235 1.1280
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EUR/USD
The US monthly employment report released last Friday, cast serious doubts over the possibility of a US rate hike next summer, triggering a greenback’s selloff. The world’s largest economy added just some measly 38,000 new jobs last May, while the previous two months suffered downward revisions of 59K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, the lowest since 2007, whilst wages posted a modest growth, with the Average hourly earnings rising 0.2% monthly basis, and 2.5% compared to a year before. Additionally, the latest ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI dropped to 52.9 in May from previous 55.7, below expectations and the lowest in two years. FED’s Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia’s luncheon this Monday, but seems unlikely her wording could affect market’s negative sentiment towards the dollar. Overall, the macroeconomic calendar will be light this week, with attention shifting towards June 15th FED’s meeting. In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair recovered up to 1.1355, where it closed the week, the 50% retracement of the May´s slide. The strong uturn in sentiment favors now the upside, and so do technical readings, as in the daily chart, the price is well above the 20 and 100 SMAs, currently around 1.1220, whilst the technical indicators head sharply higher after recovering above their midlines. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators pared their advances in extreme overbought territory, but give no signs of retreating, suggesting the pair may consolidate before breaking higher, with scope now to extend its rally up to 1.1460 a major static resistance level.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1370 1.1415 1.1460
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair traded uneventfully around its Friday’s high for most of this Monday, but managed to extend its gains up to 1.1392 during the American session, following FED’s Yellen words on a speech over current conditions and the outlook for the US economy in Philadelphia, in where she acknowledged the disappointing jobs´ report, but also reiterated that a rate hike is appropriate if the right conditions are met. Without saying much, Yellen tried to dismiss the relevance of one negative Payroll reading, although the market is not convinced now that the FED will be able to act this summer. Despite higher, the common currency has found little support in local data, as German Factory Orders fell by 2.0% in April compared to the previous month, far beyond the 0.6% decline expected. Compared to a year before, new orders fell by 0.5%. The EU Sentix Investor Confidence index, however, rose above expected, printing 9.9 for June, the highest for this 2016. The dollar saw a shortlived rally following Yellen’s words, resulting in the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.1325, level that continues attracting buying interest. Now above the 50% retracement of its May’s slide, the pair is biased higher according to technical readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply higher above the 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have resumed their advances, despite being in overbought territory. Adding to technical readings is the negative sentiment towards the greenback that will probably persist until the upcoming FED meeting, next June 15th.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair trades flat for a second consecutive day, stuck around the 50% retracement of its May decline, the price zone reached after a horrid US Nonfarm Payroll report put the greenback in selloff mode. The pair held within Monday’s range, as a scarce calendar failed to motive investors. A review of the Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed that the region grew 0.6% during the first three months of the year, whilst the most relevant piece of news coming from the US was the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index that dropped 0.5 points, or 1.0%, in June, posting a reading of 48.2 against 48.7 in May and expectations of 49.1. As for the technical picture, the pair has little directional strength, and there are good chances that it will continue trading range bound ahead of next week’s FED meeting. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its rally after crossing the 100 SMA and is about to advance beyond the 200 SMA, while the RSI indicator keeps consolidating in overbought territory, while the Momentum indicator keeps correcting extreme readings, heading south within positive territory. The line in the sand towards the downside stands at the 1.1280/90 region, where buying interest will likely surge on dips, whilst the critical resistance comes at 1.1460 a major long term static level.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair trades flat for a second consecutive day, stuck around the 50% retracement of its May decline, the price zone reached after a horrid US Nonfarm Payroll report put the greenback in selloff mode. The pair held within Monday’s range, as a scarce calendar failed to motive investors. A review of the Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed that the region grew 0.6% during the first three months of the year, whilst the most relevant piece of news coming from the US was the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index that dropped 0.5 points, or 1.0%, in June, posting a reading of 48.2 against 48.7 in May and expectations of 49.1. As for the technical picture, the pair has little directional strength, and there are good chances that it will continue trading range bound ahead of next week’s FED meeting. Overall, technical readings favor the upside, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its rally after crossing the 100 SMA and is about to advance beyond the 200 SMA, while the RSI indicator keeps consolidating in overbought territory, while the Momentum indicator keeps correcting extreme readings, heading south within positive territory. The line in the sand towards the downside stands at the 1.1280/90 region, where buying interest will likely surge on dips, whilst the critical resistance comes at 1.1460 a major long term static level.
Support levels:1.1330 1.1280 1.1240
Resistance levels: 1.1415 1.1460 1.1500
EUR/USD
Risk aversion took over the financial world this Thursday, with stocks weakening, treasury yields reaching multimonth lows and gold rallying to a fresh 3week high. The catalyst beyond this sudden change in market’s sentiment was Chinese inflation data, up by 2.0% yearly basis, missing expectations of a 2.2% gain and below previous 2.3%. Monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.5%. The Producer Price Index showed an improvement, printing a 2.8% decline against previous 3.4%, improving as a result of higher commodity prices. Contracting inflation, revived fears of a local economic slowdown, and that it could quickly spread to other major economies. In the West, the calendar was again scarce, with only Germany releasing its April trade balance, which showed a surplus of €25.6 billion in April 2016, compared to a year earlier, when the surplus was of €21.8 billion, and the US publishing its weekly unemployment claims, which came in at 264K, beating expectations, for the week ending June 3rd. For a change, the dollar benefited alongside with gold and the Japanese Yen in a riskaverse environment, leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair to a fresh weekly low of 1.1305. Having bounced modestly from this last, the technical outlook for the pair is bearish, although a break below the 1.1280/90 region is still required to confirm further slides. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor such decline, as the technical indicators have broken below their midlines, and stand at twoweek lows, although with limited downward strength due to the reduced volumes seen during the last hours of US trading.
Support levels:1.1280 1.1250 1.1210
Resistance levels: 1.1355 1.1380 1.1420
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EUR/USD
The American dollar recovered a good portion of the ground lost after the release of poor Nonfarm Payrolls data this past week, and in spite of chances of a FED rate hike remaining low. The US FOMC will have its economic policy meeting this week, and the decision will be unveiled next Wednesday, when the Central Bank is largely expected to remain on hold. Greenback’s gains by the end of the week, were underpinned by a raid of riskaversion, spurred by worsethanexpected Chinese data, which revived fears over a global economic slowdown.Fueling the dollar at the end of the week was the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index that come in at 94.3 in June, slightly below the 94.7 previous, but above the 94.0 consensus. The macroeconomic calendar will be extremely light this Monday in Europe and the US, although the week will open with plenty of data coming from China, which will likely define market’s sentiment until the FED. From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair’s latest decline could have also been fueled by profit taking ahead of the major events including Central Banks and the Brexit referendum, but whatever the reason behind the retracement a bearish continuation is not yet confirmed, given that in the daily chart, the price is above the 20 SMA and 100 SMAs, which converge around 1.1220/30, the immediate support, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower, but are unable to confirm a downward breakout. In the 4 hours chart, however, the pair presents a clearer bearish momentum with indicators heading south near oversold levels, and the 20 SMA turning south around 1.1340.
Support levels:1.1225 1.1190 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1290 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
Risk aversion dominated the first half of the day, although sentiment improved after Wall Street’s opening, with US stocks and oil rising. The risk off environment weighed on Asian and European equities and safe havens gold and Japanese yen extended their gains. The American dollar extended its rally against its European rivals and the EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1231, but later bounced up to 1.1302, being unable to settle above the critical figure. The lack of macroeconomic releases, added to the upcoming risk events later this week, keeping most major pairs within limited intraday ranges.The EUR/USD pair holds near the mentioned 1.1300 level, but is overall looking bearish, as in the 4 hours chart, the rally stalled right below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected oversold readings reached earlier in the day, before turning flat within bearish territory. The EU will release its April´s production data this Tuesday, while in the US it will be the turn of Retail Sales, which may bring some action to the pair, although the most likely scenario is that investors remain in cautious mode ahead of the FED’s announcement next Wednesday. Should the pair settle above 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline, the downside risk will be limited, with scope then to advance up to 1.1385.
Support levels:1.1250 1.1215 1.1170
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
The American dollar rose against most of its major rivals, but those considered safehavens, such as the Swiss Franc and the Japanese yen, as market’s negative mood continued. The EUR and the Pound suffered the most, with the first down towards the 1.1200 region, barely 50 pips away from the preUS NFP report which triggered these last days’ bullish run, and the second flirting with the 1.4100 level. Fears over the result of the upcoming Brexit referendum has kept investors moving away from risk assets and running into safehavens, although the FX market entered waitandsee mode mid US session, ahead of the FED’s economic policy decision this Wednesday. The Central Bank is largely expected to remain on hold, but whatever the decision is, it will surely result in sharp moves across the forex board.Macroeconomic data was largely ignored, although generally encouraging. In the EU, Industrial Production rose by 1.1% in April, having declined by 0.7% in March. Retail Sales in the US beat forecast, increasing by 0.5% in May, below previous 1.3%, but above market’s expectations of a 0.3% advance. As for the EUR/USD technical picture, the risk is towards the downside, as the price is now below the 23.6% retracement of the May’s decline, around 1.1220, and below all of its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have lost directional strength, but remain within negative territory. There is a daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 low, coming in at 1.1135 for this Wednesday, the first bullish target, should the FED raise rates. The critical resistance for this Wednesday, is around 1.1235, where in the daily chart, the 20 DMA converges with the 100 DMA, which means that a recovery beyond this area should favor additional gains up to the 1.1300 region.
Support levels:1.1210 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1295 1.1340
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EUR/USD
Markets were extremely thin at the beginning of the day, with the dollar easing alongside with riskaverse sentiment, and the EUR/USD pair recovering up to 1.1244, ahead of the US FED meeting. Once again, Yellen delayed a rate hike, and the dollar plummeted against all of its majors rivals, on news that FED members unanimously voted to live rates unchanged. The dot plot showed six officials look now for just one rate hike this year, while expectations are of three rate hikes in 2017 and another three in 2018. Growth forecast has been revised lower, to 2.0% from previous 2.2%, whilst they reckon that "the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up."During the press conference, Janet Yellen said that economic indicators have been mixed and that there´s no preset course for the economic policy. Nothing really new, but she also added that growth has posted a “sizable rebound” in the second quarter, but it has been “lackluster” according to her words. Also, she said that they expect core inflation will reach the 2.0% target over the next twothree years. During the press conference, and after being questioned, she added that a July hike “it’s not impossible” if data improves enough.The EUR/USD pair flirted with the 1.1300 level, but despite the dovish stance, the pair was unable to break above it and pullback to the 1.1250 region, meeting some buying interest around its 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart. The technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain below their midlines, modestly retreating from them, whilst stronger selling interest remains around 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May’s decline. Nevertheless, the FED has painted a gloomy picture, something that should keep the greenback under selling pressure.
Support levels:1.1245 1.1190 1.1140
Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385
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EUR/USD
Markets were in a rollercoaster this Thursday, as adding to four Central Banks´ decisions in less than 24 hours, there were rumors pointing to a suspension of the Brexit referendum, after a British Parliamentary was shot dead in the street. David Cameron actually suspended the campaign activity for next week’s referendum on the country’s EU membership. The American dollar began to advance at the beginning of the London session, as after a dovish FED and BOJ’s inaction, investors’ attention flipped back to Brexit concerns. The greenback accelerated its advance when the Bank of England also decided to maintain its economic policy unchanged, and warned once again over the risk of a Brexit for the UK. Despite the US release some mixed macroeconomic data, high yielding currencies sunk, with the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1130, its lowest for the month. The common currency trimmed almost all of its daily losses after Brexit fears receded with the shooting, on speculation this will end up favoring the “remain” campaign, as the victim was proEU. Coldblooded, but market’s belief anyway. From a technical point of view, is quite interesting that the pair tested and bounced back from the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 that also triggered a strong bounce once approached late May. In the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is still seen limited, given that the technical indicators have bounced sharply from oversold territory, but are not yet confirming and extension beyond their midlines, whilst the latest recovery stalled right below a bearish 20 SMA. The pair needs to settle above the 1.1245 to attempt a retest of the 1.1290/1.1300 region, and it will take a recovery beyond this last, to confirm a bullish continuation for this Friday.
Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1295 1.1340
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EUR/USD
Markets were in a rollercoaster this Thursday, as adding to four Central Banks´ decisions in less than 24 hours, there were rumors pointing to a suspension of the Brexit referendum, after a British Parliamentary was shot dead in the street. David Cameron actually suspended the campaign activity for next week’s referendum on the country’s EU membership. The American dollar began to advance at the beginning of the London session, as after a dovish FED and BOJ’s inaction, investors’ attention flipped back to Brexit concerns. The greenback accelerated its advance when the Bank of England also decided to maintain its economic policy unchanged, and warned once again over the risk of a Brexit for the UK. Despite the US release some mixed macroeconomic data, high yielding currencies sunk, with the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1130, its lowest for the month. The common currency trimmed almost all of its daily losses after Brexit fears receded with the shooting, on speculation this will end up favoring the “remain” campaign, as the victim was proEU. Coldblooded, but market’s belief anyway. From a technical point of view, is quite interesting that the pair tested and bounced back from the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 that also triggered a strong bounce once approached late May. In the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is still seen limited, given that the technical indicators have bounced sharply from oversold territory, but are not yet confirming and extension beyond their midlines, whilst the latest recovery stalled right below a bearish 20 SMA. The pair needs to settle above the 1.1245 to attempt a retest of the 1.1290/1.1300 region, and it will take a recovery beyond this last, to confirm a bullish continuation for this Friday.
Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1295 1.1340
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