- Euro May Test 1.4200 Before a Reversal
- Japanese Yen from 115.73 is a Correction
- British Pound Bullish Against 2.0136
- Swiss Franc May Have Reversed for Good
- Canadian Dollar, Don?t Chase It
- Australian Dollar Approaching Short Term Top
- New Zealand Dollar Reversal Potential at .7550
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR JTRENDW AND JTRENDD
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “an ending diagonal may be unfolding in wave 5 from 1.4040. This remains a possibility as long as price is above 1.4061. One more high may complete the larger advance near 1.4200.” The upper diagonal line is close to 1.4200. A rally to there may complete the advance from 1.4041 and possibly a larger rally. A drop below 1.4111 signals a short opportunity against the high.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: “We have continued to state that we expect a return to 118.00 in order to complete wave C of the A-B-C from 111.59 and that this count remains favored unless price drops under 112.59.” This count is now favored as long as price is above 114.02. An a-b-c correction appears to be unfolding from 115.73. A drop below 115.29 is expected before the correction is complete. Estimated support from Fibonacci is at 115.08 and 114.68. Those not yet long that wish to get long for a test of 118.00 can use dips to these levels to get bullish against 114.02.
Strategy: Remain bullish, move risk to 114.02 (from 112.59), target 118.00
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a bullish bias is warranted against 2.0084, targeting a rally through 2.0366.” Risk can be moved to 2.0136 now as Cable is in a small third wave higher towards 2.0366. 2.0204 is near term support. A drop below 2.0136 would negate the call for a rally through 2.0366 and suggest that price will drop below 2.0084.
Strategy: Remain Bullish, move risk to 2.0136 (from 2.0084), target TBD
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “after dropping to 1.1637, the USDCHF has rallied in an impulsive fashion (5 waves), so favor the upside at least in the near term for a rally to 1.1771.” It is possible to count a 5 up from 1.1637 that may be complete at 1.1720. This is either wave A of a correction that has more room to the upside or wave 1 of a new bull cycle. Either way, near term support is at 1.1677 and a bullish bias is warranted against 1.1637.
Strategy: Remain bullish, against 1.1637, target TBD
Commentary: We have favored a larger correction to 1.0173 (former 4th wave) to unfold as wave iv of 3 before a drop to a new low in order to complete wave 3 and give way to a larger correction. Given the corrective nature of the advance from .9936, it is possible that wave iv of 3 is already complete so a drop to a new low may happen soon. There is no reason to get bearish now though, as we still expect a drop to a new low to be fully retraced since the decline would complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.0866. Again, a larget wave iv would likely end near 1.0175.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The AUDUSD continues to push higher and is likely in a 5th wave within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8171. The completion of wave v from .8610 would most likely complete a larger 3rd wave as well and give way to a correction that could test .8610 before a rally to a new high in larger wave 5 (above .8870). The path is towards higher prices until the 5 wave advance from .7673 is complete.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: With the appearance of 5 waves higher from .6824, at least a correction is due. The rally from .6824 is either the end of a correction (wave C) or wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .6639. Near term support is at .7304. The pair is approaching the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547, which is a potential reversal point.
Strategy: Move to flat (from bullish)
JTRENDW uses 13 week RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat. The JTRENDD uses 13 days of data. An example of JTRENDW is below for the EURUSD.
