In this article I will provide my view on the EUR/GBP, AUD/USD and the NZD/CAD. These are the pairs that I am currently interested in or was interested in last week for trading with the FxTaTrader weekly strategy. I will pick one to analyse in more detail from the pairs that have not been discussed yet recently.
- All trades are based on specific rules according to the strategy.
- For the performance and closed positions click here.
This article will provide:
[ul]
[li]The weekly currency chart for the analyzed pair.[/li][li]The weekly(decision) TA chart for the analyzed pair.[/li][li]A Technical analysis for the analyzed pair of the Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart.[/li][li]A brief review on the other pairs.[/li][li]Possible positions for the coming week and open/closed positions.[/li][/ul]
Because of the high presence of the CHF pairs in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating listpublished this weekend it is better to use the Top 15 in the coming period. All the CHF pairs will be ignored for trading until the daily chart starts to show useful data.
According to the TA Charts, the “Currency score” and the “Ranking & Rating list” all the pairs in the Top 15 of the “Ranking & Rating list” are good to trade but the following pairs are not (yet) qualified according to the FxTaTrader Strategy rules:
[ul]
[li]All the CHF pairs can best be avoided because of the high volatility in the coming period.[/li][li]The USD/CAD, GBP/CAD. These pairs are far away from the Bollinger Band and a good pull back has to take place to make them interesting again for taking positions.[/li][li]The EUR/USD, NZD/USD and the EUR/GBP are nearing the outside range of the Bollinger Band. When the trading week starts the Bollinger Band will show its new value which will be in the direction of the trend and most probably the mentioned pairs will then come inside the Bollinger Band and otherwise this will be achieved with a small pull back.[/li][/ul]
When trading according to the FxTaTrader Strategy some rules are in place. For more information see the page on my blog FxTaTrader Strategy. Depending on the opportunities that may come up the decision to trade a currency may become more obvious at that moment.
Open/pending positions of last week
NZD/CAD
This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Wk03 where the pair was tipped for going long and the update of last week Weekly Review Strategy Wk04. Last week the pull back was too strong causing the 3 positions to close on the stop loss. Although the pair remains interesting the NZD in the last two weeks had a Currency Score of only 4. This low score may be an opportunity to go long but it seems that the currency and especially the pair NZD/CAD is consolidating. It remains an interesting pair because it is not overbought compared to other CAD pairs. Next week may be too early to step in again but it is a pair to watch in the coming period. When using the NZD for going long with the CAD it offers the possiblity with the FxTaTrader Strategy to go long with other currencies like the USD and the GBP.
[ul]
[li]In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions although the MA’s should cross by preference above the cloud.[/li][li]The MACD is in positive area and gaining strength.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is long but not showing the preferred pattern of higher stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]
At the moment the pair is not high in the ranking and rating list because the NZD has a lower currency score(4) compared to the previous weeks.
Ranking and rating list Week 05
Rank: 22
Rating: +
Total outlook: Up
AUD/USD
This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Wk04 where the pair was tipped for going short. Last week the pull back offered a good opportunity and 2 positions have been opened. Profit was made on 1 positon of 1/2 Weekly ATR (88 pips) and another position remains open with a trailing stop. At the moment this open position has gained 186 pips.
[ul]
[li]In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.[/li][li]The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]
Ranking and rating list Week 05
Rank: 6
Rating: - - -
Total outlook: Down
Possible positions for coming week
EUR/GBP
This pair will be analyzed in detail. The pair broke through the bottom of 0,7750 that was there since the year 2008. Last week a light pull back took place and if conditions remain good in the coming week positions will be opened. Also for this pair an additional position will be opened with a trailing stop, like with the NZD/CAD and the AUD/USD. If the downtrend resumes it will go outside of the Bollinger Band and the additional position will remain open until the downtrend slows down and the pair comes back within the Bollinger Band again. This way advantage can be taken of the whole trend completing besides the initial entries with profit targets of 1/4 and 1/2 Weekly ATR which are placed within the Bollinger Band at the start of a trend.
[ul]
[li]As can be seen in the Currency Score chart in my previous article of this weekend Forex Weekly Currency Score Wk 05, the EUR is having a score of 3 and the GBP a score of 6.[/li][li]In the current list of this weekend Forex Ranking & Rating Wk 05 the pair has a rank of 15. This list is used as additional information besides the Currency score and the Technical analysis charts.[/li][li]Besides the general information mentioned the outlook in the TA charts also makes it an attractive opportunity.[/li][/ul]
Ranking and rating list Week 05
Rank: 15
Rating: -
Weekly Currency score: Down
Based on the currency score the pair looked interesting in the last 3 months. The GBP is an average performer from a longer term perspective and currently has a score of 6. The EUR is a weaker currency from a longer term perspective and currently has a score of 3. With a Currency score difference of 3 and the GBP classified as an average currency while the EUR is a weaker currency it is an interesting pair in the coming week for going short.
Monthly chart: Down
[ul]
[li]On the monthly(context) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.[/li][li]The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][li]Since the monthly chart is used to get the context how that pair is developing for the long term the indicators are looking fine because they are showing strength in the current downtrend.[/li][/ul]
Weekly chart: Down
[ul]
[li]On the weekly(decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.[/li][li]The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]
Daily chart: Down
[ul]
[li]On the daily(timing) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.[/li][li]The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.[/li][li]The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.[/li][li]The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.[/li][/ul]
Total outlook: Down[B]
EUR/GBP Weekly chart
[/B]Although the explanation may seem simple and clear there is always risk involved. I added adisclaimer to my blog for this purpose. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL [FxTaTrader.com](file:///C:/Users/portiz/Dropbox/TIS/Dropbox/Forex/_SocialMedia/Blog/2015/W05/FxTaTrader.com) or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don’t forget to check my weekly Forex “Ranking and Rating list” and the “Currency Score”.
DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for ‘Forex Trading Journal’ purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.