Key Highlights
• New Zealand dollar traded lower against the US dollar and tested the 0.7460 support area.
• Earlier today, the Inflation Expectations was released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which came in at 1.8%, down from the last reading of 2.1%.
• Fed’s Yellen is scheduled to testify today, which might cause a lot of volatility in the US dollar.
• NZDUSD has a critical support around 0.7450 and resistance at 0.7500.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations
Today during the Asian session, as the New Zealand Inflation Expectations was released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The outcome was not as the forex market expected, as it registered an increase of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the last gain of 2.1%.
Technical Analysis
The New Zealand dollar was not impressed at all with the current release and it was seen trading lower against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded below the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7410 low to 0.7573 high. Moreover, the pair also cleared the 200 hour simple moving average, which is a bearish sign for the pair. On the downside, an immediate support can be seen around the 76.4% fib level, followed by the last swing low of 0.7410.
If the NZDUSD pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 200 hour MA. There is a monster bearish trend line formed as well, which is coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, one might say that there is a major resistance around the 0.7510 level.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• Japanese yen was seen trading lower against most major currencies after a few critical releases in Japan.
• Japanese National Consumer Price Index published by the Statistics Bureau registered a rise of 2.4% in January 2015, which is the same as the last reading of 2.4%.
• Japanese National CPI Ex Food, Energy increased by 2.1% in January 2015, compared to same month of the preceding year.
• Japanese Unemployment Rate released the Ministry of Health, Labour and welfare and published by the Japan Statistics Bureau registered a rise to 3.6% from 3.4% in January 2015.
• USDJPY traded lower and fell towards the 119.20 support area.
Japanese Unemployment Report
Today during the Asian session, there were a few important releases lined up in Japan. One of them was the unemployment report. Japan’s Unemployment Rate was released the Ministry of Health, Labour and welfare and published by the Japan Statistics Bureau. The forecast was lined up for no change in the unemployment from 3.4% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was a bit disappointing, as the Japanese Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.6%.
The report added that the number of employed persons in January 2015 was 63.09 million, which was around 470 thousand or 0.8% more compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the number of unemployed persons in January 2015 was 2.31 million, which was 70 thousand or 2.9% less compared to the previous year.
Technical Analysis
The US dollar traded lower against the Japanese yen to test the 119.20-10 support area where the US dollar buyers managed to protect the downside. There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which was breached earlier and now acting as a support to the USDJPY pair. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 118.66 low to 119.49 high is also sitting around the same area.
Key Highlights
• Euro nosedived not only against the US dollar recently, but also weakened a lot against the British pound.
• Today, the ECB Interest Rate Decision will be announced by the European Central Bank in which easing measures is likely to cause a lot of action in the Euro pairs.
• BoE Interest Rate Decision will also be announced by the Bank of England in which central bank is expected to make no changes in the interest rates.
• EURGBP pair has a monster resistance around the 0.7270 level which is likely to act as a pivot area.
ECB and BOE Interest Rate Decisions
Later during the London session, there are a couple of important releases lined up as the European Central Bank and Bank of England will be announcing interest rates. No changes in rates is expected by both the banks, but its easing measure from the ECB which might trigger moves in the Euro. Both EURUSD and EURGBP remain at risk of more losses if the Euro sellers gain control.
Technical Analysis
The Euro moved towards the 0.7260 resistance area against the British pound recently, which acted as a barrier for the EURGBP pair. There is also a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a catalyst for the pair. The most important point is that the highlighted trend line is coinciding with the 100 hour moving average. So, there is a major barrier around the 0.7270-80 area.
Key Highlights
• Aussie dollar was seen under pressure against the US dollar and other major currencies, as recent economic releases in Australian were disappointing.
• Australian Home Loans report was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which posted a decline of 3.5% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month.
• Australian investment lending for homes also declined by 0.1%.
• Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute fell from 100.7 to 99.5.
• AUDUSD fell towards 0.7580 where it managed to find bids.
Australian Home Loans
Earlier during the Asian session, there were a couple of releases lined up in Australia. The Home Loans report was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for a decline of 2% in January 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome missed the mark, as Australian Home Loans fell by 3.5%.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair traded lower and broke the 0.7600 support area to trade close to the 0.7580 level. There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is likely to act as a hurdle if the pair moves higher from the current levels. Initial resistance can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7738 high to 0.7586 low. So, there is a major barrier forming around the 0.7620-40 area.
Key Highlights
• US dollar weakened a lot overnight as the fed stayed away from aggressive stance for hiking rates.
• In the New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product was released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
• NZDUSD breached a major resistance of 0.7440, which might now act as a support.
New Zealand GDP
Earlier during the Asian session, the New Zealand Gross Domestic Product, which is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The forecast was slated for an increase of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the preceding quarter. However, the outcome was above the expectation, as the New Zealand Gross Domestic Product registered an increase of 0.8%. There was a negative side as well because the last reading was revised down from 1% to 0.9%.
Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair was able to gain strength in the past couple of sessions. There were two reasons for it. The first one was the US dollar weakness due to the Fed rate decision, and the second one was the New Zealand GDP.
The pair traded as high as 0.7540 where it found sellers and currently correcting lower. The pair is now trading above the 100 and 200 simple moving average (SMA) – 4H, which are likely to act as a support if the pair moves lower from the current levels. Moreover, the broken trend line might also act as a hurdle for the pair moving ahead.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• USDCAD pair after falling sharply managed to recover the ground, but faces a major resistance on the way up.
• USDCAD has a major resistance at 1.2530 where sellers are likely to take a stand.
• Today, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis with forecast slated for a 2.4% rise.
Technical Analysis
The USDCAD pair earlier this week fell towards the 1.2400 support area where the US dollar buyers managed to hold the downside. The mentioned support area holds a lot of importance in the near term as it represents a major pivot zone. The pair is currently correcting higher and facing an uphill task around the 1.2500-20 levels.
There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is sitting around the mentioned resistance levels. Moreover, the 100 hour simple moving average is also aligned around the same area, which increases the value of the mentioned hurdle. This is not all, as the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2721 high to 1.2407 low is also around the same area. So, in short the USDCAD pair might struggle a lot moving ahead and if it fails to break higher, then a move back towards the 1.2400 level is possible.
US GDP
Today, during the NY session, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market is expecting for an increase of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the same quarter a year ago. In terms of the quarter-over-quarter change, the US GDP is expected to post a rise of 0.1%. Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures i.e. the measure of price changes in consumer goods and services is expected to decline by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the preceding quarter.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• New Zealand dollar continued to stay on the top against the US dollar, but faces a major resistance ahead.
• NZDUSD forming a breakout pattern, which if breached to the upside might call for more gains.
• Earlier today, the Chinese Consumer Price Index was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which posted a decline of 0.5% in March 2015.
Technical Analysis
The New Zealand dollar performed well during the past couple of sessions against the US dollar, as buyer’s sentiment improved in the short term. The NZDUSD pair traded higher and currently testing an important resistance area at 0.7600. There is a contracting triangle formed on the 4-hour chart of the pair, which is acting as a catalyst in the near term.
The highlighted triangle is currently acting as a hurdle for the pair. A break above the same might call for more gains towards 0.7650. On the downside, there is also a bullish trend line, which can be seen as an immediate support to the pair. Moreover, 100 simple moving average is also just below the same trend line waiting to stall the downside.
The 4H RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign in the near term, and could help it to gain strength.
Canadian Employment Data
Later during the NY session, the Canadian employment Change, which is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada will be released by the Statistics Canada. The forecast is of a decline of 0.1K in March 2015.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• Aussie dollar climbed sharply higher during the Asian session as the employment report released in Australia exceeded the market expectation.
• Australian Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 37.7K, compared to the forecast of 15K in March 2015.
• Australian unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% in March whereas the market was expecting it to stay at 6.3%.
• Aussie dollar gained across most major currencies, including GBPAUD pair which traded below the 0.9200 support area.
Australian Employment Report
Earlier today during the Asian session, there was a critical release in Australia. The Employment Change, which represents the change in the number of employed people in Australia was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was not expecting an increase of 15.0K in March 2015, compared to the preceding month and in terms of the seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the Australian employment change came in at 37.7K.
Technical Analysis
The GBPAUD pair declined heavily after the release, and there was a sharp bearish pressure noticed. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the GBPAUD pair, which was breached during the recent slide. Moreover, the pair also settled below the 200 hourly moving average, which could later act as a resistance in the near term.
Key Highlights
• Aussie dollar was seen gaining bids against the US dollar, as the Australian CPI release came in line with the forecast.
• Australian Consumer Price Index released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a rise of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015.
• AUDUSD found support around 0.7700 recently and traded higher.
Australian CPI
Earlier today during the Asian session, the Australian Consumer Price Index, which helps in measuring of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the preceding quarter. The outcome was in line with the expectation.
Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar recently fell against the US dollar, but found support around an important area of 0.7690. The mentioned level was coinciding with the 200 hourly simple moving average, and the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7554 low to 0.7840 high. After the release, the AUDUSD pair gained bids and traded back above the 0.7720 resistance level. There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is likely to act as a barrier if the pair continues to move higher.
A retest of the last swing high at 0.7840 is possible in the near term where buyers could be tested. A break above the same might take AUDUSD towards 0.7900. On the downside, initial support can be seen around 0.7720, followed by the 200 hourly SMA.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• US dollar traded sharply lower against a basket of currencies including the Euro and the Swiss franc, and looks set for more losses.
• US Consumer Confidence released by the Conference Board declined to 95.2 in April 2015.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index also fell to -3 in April, compared to the forecast of -2.
• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index managed to gain by 5% in February 2015.
US Consumer Confidence
There was an important release lined up in the US today, as the Consumer Confidence gauging the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity was released by the Conference Board. The market expectation was of a rise to 102.5 in April 2015, but the end result was very disappointing. The US Consumer Confidence posted a decline to 95.2 from 101.3.
Technical Analysis
The USDCHF pair fell sharply and traded below an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart. The most important point is that the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, suggesting that the US dollar sellers are here to stay.
If the pair manages to recover from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a resistance for the pair. The hourly RSI is slowly dipping below the 50 level, which is another bearish sign in the near term.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• In the last 24 hours the British Pound has surged higher, however it has run into resistance right around the 200 hourly MA, and eased slightly lower in recent hours.
• UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics, and expected to decline from 58.9 to 58.5.
• GBPUSD has a major resistance formed around 1.5220-30 where sellers are likely to appear.
GBPUSD - Technical Analysis
After a solid start this week, the British Pound struggled to break an important confluence area of the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages. It eased back towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.5087 low to 1.5217 high where it received some support.
There is a bearish trend line formed as well on the hourly chart, which is aligned perfectly with the confluence of 200 and 100 MAs. The technical picture shows there is a limited possibility of a break higher, and an upward potential is very low as the 1 hour chart shows the technical indicators aim lower. As long as the GBPUSD pair is below the 1.5220-30 resistance area, it might continue to head lower.
The pair may retreat down to the 50% fib retracement level at 1.5152 if buyers keep fading. However, the downward risk will remain limited as there is a major risk event lined up in the UK today during the London session.
UK Services PMI
Today, the UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be published by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics. The forecast is lined up for a minor decline from the last reading of 58.9 to 58.5. A softer-than-expected PMI might weigh on the British Pound in the short term.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• US Dollar trading inside a breakout pattern against the Japanese Yen with resistance around 119.90-120.00.
• Japanese Current Account released by the Ministry of Finance posted ¥2,795.3B, compared to the forecast of ¥2,060.0B in March, non-seasonally adjusted.
• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey released by the Cabinet Office increased from 53.4 to 54.2 in April 2015.
Japanese Current Account
Today, the Japanese Current Account report, providing a measure of the net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of Japan was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was expecting the Current Account to be ¥2,795.3B in March, non-seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome was higher with a reading of ¥2,795.3B.
USDJPY - Technical Analysis
The US Dollar traded lower versus the Japanese Yen, and following a descending channel on the hourly chart. One key point to note here is that the USDJPY pair is around the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving average confluence area, which is acting as a support to the pair.
Moreover, the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last leg from the last leg from the 119.58 low to 120.26 high. So, there is a chance that the pair might break higher, and clear the channel resistance area. In that situation, the pair might head back above the 120.00 handle in the short term.
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Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• US Dollar corrected a bit lower today, as economic releases in the US failed to impress.
• US Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor increased to 274K whereas the market was expecting it to come in at 271K.
• US Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors declined by 3.3% in April 2015, compared with the forecast of a 1% rise.
US Initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the NY session, the Initial Jobless Claims, which measures the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance was released by the US Department of Labor. The forecast was lined up for an increase from 264K to 271K in the week ending May 16, as per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome missed the mark, as the US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 274K. The report stated that the 4-week moving average is at 266,250, which is 5,500 less than compared to the previous week’s unrevised average of 271,75.
US Existing Home Sales
There was one more release lined up in the US, as the Existing Home Sales, which is an estimated value of housing market conditions and a sensitive factor to the US economy was released by the National Association of Realtors. The forecast was of an increase of 1% in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was softer-than-expected, as the US Existing Home Sales decreased by 3.3% to 5.04M.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• Australian Dollar dived versus the US Dollar, as AUDUSD sellers have been aggressive lately.
• There is a major support at 0.7660-80 where buyers might fight to protect more losses.
• Earlier today, the Japanese Retail Trade released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry registered an increase of 5% in April 2015.
AUDUSD – Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair recently suffered heavy losses after sellers managed to break the 0.7800 support area. On the daily timeframe, the 100 simple moving average was breached, which cleared the way for losses. There is a minor bullish trend line on the daily chart, which might act as a support to the AUDUSD pair in the near term.
Moreover, the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7532 low to 0.8161 high is also around the same trend line. So, there is a chance of a reaction around 0.7660-80 area, and buyers might try hard to protect more declines in AUDUSD.
If buyers fail to defend losses, then a break below the highlighted trend line could set that path for a rested of the previous swing low of 0.7530. On the upside, the 200-day SMA may perhaps act as a barrier moving ahead. There is one more bearish sign, as the daily RSI has moved below the 50 level, suggesting that the AUDUSD pair is under bearish pressure.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• US dollar rocketed higher against the Japanese Yen after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release.
• US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in May 2015, compared to April’s reading of 51.5.
• US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics missed the forecast by a minor margin and came in at 54.0 in May 2015.
• US Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce posted an increase of 0.4%, more than the expectation of +0.3%.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the NY session, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index was released, which shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. The forecast was lined up for a rise from the last reading of 51.5 to 52.0. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index managed to increase by a fair margin to 52.8 in May 2015.
The report stated that the Employment Index was up by 3.4 percentage points to 51.7 percent, pointing growing employment levels from April.
US Markit Manufacturing PMI
There was one more important release lined up in the US, as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was expecting an increase from 53.8 to 54.2 in May 2015. However, the outcome was a bit on the lower side, as the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose from the last reading of 53.8 to 54.0.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
Key Highlights
• British Pound managed to trade above a major resistance versus the US Dollar and looks set for more upsides.
• GBPUSD has an intermediate resistance at 1.5370-80 and support at 1.5280.
• In Australia, the Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted no change in May 2015 whereas the market was expecting a rise of 0.4%.
GBPUSD – Technical Analysis
The British Pound enjoyed a good rise against the US Dollar, as the GBPUSD pair traded above an important bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart, which cleared the way for more gains. The pair managed to break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5698 high to 1.5168 low, but struggled to breach the 38.2% Fib level.
Moreover, the pair also made an attempt to settle above the 200 simple moving average (4-hours), but failed. In short, the 1.5380-1.5400 area is acting as a strong barrier for the pair, and might push the pair a bit lower moving ahead. However, that can be considered as a correction before the pair continues to move higher.
On the downside, there is a support building around 1.5260, which acted as a pivot area before. A break below the mentioned level might turn the bias to bearish.
Looking Ahead
Today, the BoE Interest Rate Decision will be announced by the Bank of England, which might play a role in a break in GBPUSD. Let’s see how the pair trades in the near term.
Posted by Aayush Jindal - ‘Titan FX Currency Analyst’
