EURUSD: Loses Rally Gains, Weakens
EURUSD: With EUR seen taking back most of its rally gains on Thursday, further weakness is now envisaged. Resistance is seen at 1.0750 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.0800 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.0850 level where a break will expose the 1.0900 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.0650 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0600 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0550 level, its psycho level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0500 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
[B]Will EUR/USD go up or down upcoming week (23rd March 2015)?[/B]
I say that upcoming Monday/week EUR/USD will go down. My argument is, double top (from 18 March 2015). EUR/USD creates M-patterns and if you look in the H1 timeframe, you will see that upcoming Monday it will go down to finish the last leg of the M-formation. Furthermore, in 1H timeframe, if you use ‘MacD complete’ (a custom indicator you can download) then you see that the fast line is about to cross below the slow line. Volume is buying period is about to switch to ‘selling’. RSI finished it’s M-formation and will only go down from now. From what you can tell in PA (price action), EUR/USD has a usual pattern which goes 3 times up and then down, in which case the 3 times up has finished so the next phase would be ‘down’. Furthermore, in 1H timeframe it touches the top of bolinger band. Of course, all these technical analyses doesn’t guarantee that it’ll become bearish because fundamental perspective is more important. But as US dollar will raise their interest at the end of the year (and Euro in 2016) I’d say that US dollar will definitely go bearish in 2015, and only later in 2016 we can expect Euro to go up. Did I forget to mention that if Greece will go bankrupt upcoming week, that EUR/USD will drop like it’s hot?
What do you guys think, will EUR/USD go up or down upcoming Monday? Please only say ‘up or down’ and ‘an argument’ or provide us with a link. Thank you!
Another way to confirm that the US dollar gains strength is by checking another US dollar-pair. Let’s take the GBP/USD. Professional Kate Curtis also thinks that US dollar will gain strength in the short-term.
USD is bullish: "about GBP/USD: the path of least resistance is to the downside, especially since the shorter-term moving average is trading below the longer-term moving average. In addition, the moving averages are treading farther apart, indicating a strengthening trend."
USD is bullish: “The 100 EMA might hold as resistance, as it seems to have held as a dynamic inflection point in the past. This is close to the 50% and 32.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, both of which could continue to hold as a ceiling for any rallies.”
USD is bullish: Then later she states that the resistance of NZD/USD will be most likely 64 pips going up, and then bounce downwards. She also states: “if stochastic turns down from the overbought region and indicates a pickup in selling pressure, the pair might head back towards the bottom of the channel at the .7350 minor psychological support.”“On its longer-term charts, NZDUSD has formed a double bottom pattern, indicating that a reversal from the recent downtrend might take place. Price has yet to break past the neckline resistance before confirming the potential long-term gains.”
USD is bullish: Kate also states about NZD/USD: “The path of least resistance is to the downside for now, as the FOMC recently dropped its “patient” wording and indicated that they are moving closer to hiking interest rates this year.”
USD is weak: Kate also states: “Risk aversion could continue to keep gains in check, especially as traders start pricing in the prospect of Fed tightening in June or September. However, more cautious remarks from Fed officials this week and the next could still keep the dollar weak, as traders could push back rate hike expectations further.”
Link: 301 Moved Permanently
Forex already starts in 4 hours (at 22hrs tonight). Could some other traders please help and support me with analysing the EUR/USD. I really appreciate your help! Thank you!
If you have information, an argument or a link about eur/usd that we can use to enter a trade this week, then please put it in this forum thread.
EUR is bullish: Although US dollar seems to have strenght, also does the EUR this week on technical view. Read this about Kate: "EURJPY might be done with its recent downtrend, as a short-term reversal pattern formed on its 1-hour time frame. A double bottom can be seen, with price currently testing the neckline of the formation.
Moving averages have also narrowed, indicating that a potential crossover might take place. If so, this could confirm that an uptrend is likely to take place. Stochastic is moving up, reflecting the presence of buying pressure at the moment."“The neckline of the chart pattern is located at the 129.00 major psychological level. If price does break out, it could head higher by as much as 200 pips, which is roughly the same height as the formation.”
EUR is bearish: In fundamental view however, Kate states: “The path of least resistance is to the downside, as the ECB is currently implementing its quantitative easing program, which is set to carry on for the next 18 months.”
Future prospect, Kate states:
USD bullish: “The prospect of Fed tightening could keep risk aversion in play.” This could mean that EURO will drop.
USD bearish: “However, if the Fed maintains that it doesn’t plan on tightening anytime soon”, then EURO may strengthen instead.
Link: 301 Moved Permanently
USD bullish: Kate states about eur/usd "EURUSD has been treading lower across all time frames but it seems that a short-term reversal might take place. On its 1-hour chart, the pair has formed a double bottom pattern, indicating that the downtrend could turn.
USD bearish: Kate states about eur/usd “The pair has to break past the neckline of the chart pattern around the 1.0600 major psychological level before confirming the potential uptrend. Stochastic is suggesting that this is possible since the oscillator is already in the oversold area and might be ready to turn higher.”
USD bearish: Kate states "The main event risk for this setup is the upcoming FOMC statement, which could show if the US central bank is moving closer to a rate hike or not. The removal of the phrase “can be patient” in beginning to normalize policy could mean that they are likely to tighten after a couple of meetings.
On the other hand, if the Fed retains its cautious bias for now, market participants might start doubting that a rate hike could take place within the year. This could lead to a massive unwinding of dollar longs, which could lead to a longer-term reversal for EUR/USD."
USD bullish: "kate says “The path of least resistance is still to the downside though, as the shorter-term moving average is moving below the longer-term moving average on EUR/USD’s 1-hour chart. An upward crossover could be an early signal that a reversal is underway, but there appear to be no catalysts supporting euro gains other than potential profit-taking.”
EUR is bearish: Kate states: "EURAUD broke below the neckline support of its head and shoulders pattern on the daily time frame, indicating that the pair is in for longer-term declines. Price is now 200 pips below the neckline at the 1.4000 major psychological level and could be in for a thousand more pips in losses, as the chart pattern is roughly 1200 pips in height.
Before price heads any lower though, the pair could still pull back to the broken neckline support for a retest. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, which means that euro sellers are exhausted and that buyers might take over. A higher pullback might last until the next area of interest at the 1.4200 major psychological level.
The shorter-term moving average is trading below the longer-term moving average, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside. These indicators might also hold as dynamic inflection points if price makes any forex corrections."“it’s pretty clear that EUR is fundamentally weaker than AUD”
“With the central bank’s quantitative easing program already underway and set to carry on for the next 18 months, further euro weakness could be in the cards.”
EUR bullish: "Sentiment in the euro zone has been somewhat improving though, as ECB Governor Draghi seemed more optimistic about the ongoing developments in the region. "
Guys, can you please team up with me by posting your analysing also? together we are strong!
Eur/usd just hit previous spike (of 1.10 from March 18th), double top and strong indication of reversal. Not extemely strong though, because there was no sign of overbought levels in M5 chart. These 11 days everyday I thought and strongly believed that eur/usd would go down that day, but it didn’t. I was 11 times wrong cause it went up even more by 500 pips. Today is the first time, that I’m convinced it’s going even further up above that previous spike to 1.12. I bet you’re now thinking: "wait a second, I’m thinking the same thing’. If this is your thought, then there should be a bell ringing right about now… with an alarming tone reminding us that smart money will now go bearish from this point. And on the other hand, this confirmation can be seen because of the M-pattern that they use, the M is finished an the leg is already underway going down.
What are your thoughts? Any suggestions are welcome!
Look here: M-pattern in eur/usd.
EUR/USD: I think to go long, smart money will go short. Trend is up, trend is your friend, keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer incasu double top (from 18 march in 5M).
eur/usd went up 60 pips again. What will happen today with eur/usd do you guys think? What are your analyses?
Hi,
We at FXTechstrategy think EURUSD may have hit a snag on the upside ahead of its key resistance the 1.1096 level. As long as it trades below that level, we see it moving lower.
Can anyone else please comment and give sugggestions on eur/usd? I feel a loner at this moment, I’m doing the analysing alone. Could you please help me?
I just finished analysing the market. I think eur/usd is bullish. If you see long enough in this photo that I painted, then you’ll see the pattern also. This is right now, M5 chart, eur/usd.
