Daily Technical Analysis and Forecasts by JFD Brokers

[B]EUR/USD end of correction?
[/B]
The single currency rebounded from an 11-year low against the dollar the previous week as investors looked ahead to Non-farm Payrolls report due on Friday, which could shed some light on the pace of the U.S. recovery. Payrolls are estimated to rise by 242k in March from 295k in February, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have remained unchanged at 5.5%. If we get a figure above 200k, this could have a potentially bullish effect on the dollar and it would mark the 14th consecutive month of job gains which exceeds the 200k.

Bearing the above in mind, if the bears manage to maintain the price below the 200-period SMA and the psychological level of 1.1000, the next target for the pair would be the 1.0600 level. Furthermore, if the sellers manage to win the battle then we could see further pressure on the key support level of 1.0460. If not, then the short-term traders should watch for a failure swing pattern, prompting a more aggressive move towards the 1.1100 region. The MACD supports this notion, with the indicator trending modestly lower below it signal line while the RSI indicator is getting weaker below 50 levels and may lead the pair towards 1.0600 once again.

[B]GBP/USD stands still above 1.4800
[/B]
Over the last couple of weeks, the GBP/USD pair has established and traded within a trading range roughly around the key level of 1.4900, whilst moving down to support at 1.4800 and up to 1.5000. Over the last couple of days, the pound has moved very strongly pushing through resistance levels at 1.4700 and more recently at 1.4900. However, the rate seems to struggle near the psychological level of 1.5000, providing indications that the bulls are not strong enough to overcome that hurdle.

Several days ago it rallied again, trying to break through the 1.5000 level before dropping back to a support level at 1.4700. The latter level is very significant as the bulls managed to sustain the price and also to push it above the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which now finds support from it near the 1.4850 region. A break above the strong resistance level of 1.4990 could change the negative picture to positive, prompting a move back towards the 1.5150 region, where the 200-period SMA is ready to provide a significant resistance to the bulls. On the other hand, if we fail to see a break above the 1.4990 hurdle, then I would expect the price to move further down towards the 1.4700 – 1.4725 zone.

[B]USD/JPY could extend gains soon!
[/B]
This week’s correction did not come as a surprise, following the aggressive rally in the USD/JPY pair, which saw it break many significant levels including the 120.85 level and more recently the 119.30 level. The latter is a big resistance level for the pair and a break of this should prompt a significant move higher, with the initial target being the 120.15 level, which coincides with both, the 50- and the 200-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart. The pair rose for a second day retreating from a monthly low, with the bulls finding temporary support from the 118.40 level, which includes the lower boundary of the sloping channel. The MACD lies above its trigger line, confirming the recent bullish momentum, while RSI escaped from its oversold areas and moved higher near 50.

One the other hand, if we fail to see a close above the key resistance level of 119.30, it could prompt a rally in the JPY this week, with the next support zone coming at 118.20 – 118.40, a strong technical and psychological zone.

[B]AUD/USD bulls could take the lead above 0.7900
[/B]
The strength seen in the Australian dollar during the last couple of months against the US dollar, which held it above the key support level of 0.7560, has suggested some signs of a recovery and thus the 0.7900 – 0.7940 zone will be a significant one for the AUD bulls this week. In addition, it’s remarkable that the MACD indicator for the first time since the AUD/USD pair broke the psychological level of 0.9200, back in September 2014, is moving slightly in a bullish territory.

The daily chart shows the pair has been in a clear downtrend since June 2014. After the pair tested 0.7650, it made several attempts to break higher, but the move was halted by the aforementioned resistance zone, slightly above the descending trend line, which started back in September 2014.

Technical studies support a further rise, since the MACD is moving above both, its trigger and zero lines while the RSI is moving upwards after finding strong support near the 30 level. It is very important to see a move above the 0.7900 – 0.7940 zone to confirm that the downtrend came to an end. Fail to reach that level then it is expected the pair to come back and retest once more the 0.7640 level.

[B]XAU/USD on possible correction
[/B]
The yellow metal moved aggressively lower the last couple of days after finding a strong resistance around the $1,224 level, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. From thereon, the price came all the way down breaking below the 38.2% Fibo level as well as below the psychological level of $1,200. Currently, the precious metal is trading near the $1,190 level. This level is significant as it includes the 50-period SMA and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

Bearing the above in mind, if we see a break below the key support level of $1,190 then we could see a bigger retracement, following two consecutive winning weeks, prompting a more aggressive move towards the $1,180 level, which includes the 23.6% Fibo level.

On the other hand, if we do see a pullback in the metal in the coming days, which I do not foresee, resistance should be found around $1,212. However, for confirmation of the trend reversal, we will need to see a 4-hour close above the key resistance level of $1,246 which includes the golden ratio of 61.8%.

[B]EUR/USD could extend gains soon ahead of US NFP[/B]

The shared currency rebounded from 1.0710 during the US session and moved higher, early European trading, above the key resistance level of 1.0770. With no any major economic data today, I would expect the pair to [B]remain[/B] in the 1.0680 – 1.0920 range. However, tomorrow’s NFP report could be the main catalyst for the pair to escape from this range, especially if we get a surprise figure following yesterday’s ADP number.

ADP showed that private employers added 189,000 jobs in March, [B]missing expectations[/B] for a rise of 225,000. The indicator is lower than 200k for the first time since January 2014, which raises the concerns among the investors. The market expects the US jobs report for March to [B]show a gain[/B] of 244,000 with the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%. In February, Non-farm payrolls beat forecasts and rose to 295,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.5%.

[B]GBP/USD breaking out?
[/B]
The pound has [B]recouped [/B]some of its late Wednesday’s losses against the dollar this morning and is currently trading below the key resistance level of 1.4870. This is a [B]significant [/B]area since it includes the 50-period SMA as well as the upper boundary of the sloping channel.

For the time being, I would expect the GBP/USD pair to[B] increase the rate of attempts[/B] of testing the 1.4870 level. A [B]break above[/B] the latter barrier, could add further pressure on the strong level at 1.4900 and thus, would open the way towards the psychological level of 1.5000.

[B]USD/JPY Profit locked at 120.15!
[/B]
The USD/JPY pair gained momentum and [B]surged [/B]above the key resistance level of 119.30 few days ago to retest the descending trend line, as expected. However, the upward movement was [B]halted [/B]by the falling trend line, around the 120.30 level. Currently, the pair is finding support around the 119.30 region, which coincides with the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. After a good [B]profit taking[/B], I would step on the side and see the final reaction between the 119.30 – 120.15 zone ahead of the all-important US NFP report due tomorrow – Neutral.

[B]AUD/USD Profit booked as it holds support at 0.7560!
[/B]
The Australian dollar [B]depreciated [/B]against the US dollar after breaking below the [B]suggested [/B]level of 0.7630. The pair is under selling pressure after the bulls failed to break above the significant zone of 0.7900 – 0.7940. The MACD is printing higher lows and this is the first warning for a pullback.

Considering the above mentioned, the pair confirmed the [B]bearish bias[/B], following the break below the 50-period SMA, few days ago. Moreover, it is very significant that the bears managed to maintain the price below the psychological level of 0.7800. Therefore, the psychological level of 0.7560 will be a significant one for the Aussie bulls ahead of tomorrow’s [B]NFP report[/B] – Neutral.

[B]XAU/USD bounced from the 23.6% Fibo as expected!
[/B]
The precious metal is trading [B]higher [/B]today, currently testing a key level around $1,210. The yellow metal [B]bounced nicely and steady off [/B]from the expected strong support level of $1,180 and moved above the 50-period SMA and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, as well as the key resistance level of $1,190.

The [B]US Non-farm Payrolls[/B] is likely to have a significant impact on the direction of the metal and thus I would expect the precious metal to [B]advance further[/B], prompting a move towards the $1,224 level.

The greenback traded [B]sharply lower[/B] against all of its G10 peers on the back of a much [B]weaker-than-expected[/B] U.S. employment report. The U.S. economy added 126,000 jobs versus 245,000 expected, falling below the significant level of 200k eyed by many investors. The unemployment rate was steady at 5.5%.

[B]EUR/USD surged and met our suggested target after weak NFP

[/B]The euro [B]broke through 2 big figures [/B]including the 1.0920 and the 1.1000 levels following the NFP report. The former is a [B]significant [/B]level since it includes the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. In Friday’s note, we talked about why we were looking for a break above the 1.0920 barrier with the initial target been the 1.1040 level.
Overall, technically speaking there is no actual evidence of reversal at the moment, especially when you also consider the response to the massive resistance level, around the 1.1050 level as well the aggressive move seen few days ago towards the 1.0700 barrier.
However, the momentum [B]is positive in the background[/B] and if the bulls manage to sustain the price above the 50-period SMA, the key support level of 1.0700 and the short-term ascending trend line, then I would expect the bulls to drive the battle higher and towards the 1.1250 level. Technical studies support this notion since the MACD indicator is in bullish territory and the RSI is rising above 50. Alternatively, given how aggressive the rally has been over the last three days, we could see a brief period of consolidation, before a continuation of the move towards 1.1250.

[B]GBP/USD aggressively above 1.4870[/B]

The pound also took advantage of the dollar weakness, following the weak US payrolls and the GBP/USD pair [B]surged [/B]0.62% above the significant resistance level of [B]1.4870[/B]. Technically speaking, this enabled the pair to remain above the short-term ascending trend line, as well as above the 50-period SMA. However, I am not [B]fully convinced at this stage[/B], given that we’ve seen a break above the 50-period SMA and the 1.4800 level on the 4-hour chart a few hours ago as well as the failed attempt below the psychological level of 1.4740, which suggests traders are not as [B]bearish [/B]as they once were. The weakness is also confirmed by our short-term studies, since the MACD crossed in positive territory and the RSI has risen above the mid-point of 50.
Therefore, if the sterling bulls manage to drive the [B]battle higher[/B], then I would expect the price to challenge the 1.5000 level pretty soon and then the 1.5200 level, which includes the long-term descending trend line.

[B]XAU/USD Profit Locked at $1,224[/B]

The yellow metal [B]gapped higher[/B] over the weekend on the back of a much weaker than expected U.S. employment report. The precious metal is now moving above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, as well as above the strong resistance level of $1,212.
Traders have been clearly [B]bullish [/B]over the last few months and that looks set to continue in the short-term. The next level of resistance should come around $1,224, a previous level of support and a key psychological level, as it includes the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Since we had [B]two consecutive winning reports[/B] on XAU/USD, I would stay aside to see the response to the massive zone of $1,225 - $1,237.

[B]EUR/USD could test 1.0700 ahead of Eurogroup meeting
[/B]
The shared currency finished the week 1.9% [B]higher [/B]against the greenback on Friday, its largest weekly gain against the US dollar in four weeks. In addition, last week the pair [B]rose [/B]for four days in a row following a negative start of the week -0.36%. However, the euro remains under pressure on the back of the Grexit fears. Greece will be meeting with its creditors on April 24th to discuss Athens’ massive debt bailout programme.

The EUR/USD pair found strong support around the 1.0520, slightly above the 1.0460 lows seen in March. From here the pair rebounded higher quite aggressively and managed to break above the psychological level of 1.0700. This is a [B]significant level [/B]as it includes the 50-period SMA as well as the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. Remaining on the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the pair has found significant resistance around 1.0850 and its now testing once again the 200-period SMA.

Therefore, as it stands, the [B]next target[/B] for the pair should now be the psychological level of 1.0700, although resistance could be found along the way around 1.0740, previous level of resistance (1-hour chart). If the pair [B]fails to break[/B] below the 1.0700 level, we could see further pressure on the 1.0850, with a break above there to prompt a more aggressive move towards the psychological level of 1.1000.

[B]GBP/USD bulls failed the psychological 1.5000 barrier [/B]

The pound [B]surged[/B] above the psychological level of [B]1.5000[/B] against the dollar the previous week and touched the 1.5055 on Friday before recording another[B] false break[/B] in the last month above that barrier. The GBP/USD pair ended the week with [B]gains [/B]of 2.26%.

Last week’s U.K. labor market report was slightly weaker than expected with the claimant count falling by 20k instead of the forecasted 29k while the U.K. unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 2008. The ILO jobless rate eased to 5.6 percent in three months to February from 5.8 percent in September to November.

On the weekly chart, the pound has seen a short period of [B]consolidation [/B]against the dollar and I would expect the GBP/USD pair to continue consolidating between the key support level of 1.4740 and the psychological level of 1.5000 ahead of the all-important [B]BoE MPC[/B] meeting. The zone of 1.5180 – 1.5200 is key to understanding whether we are watching a [B]trend reversal[/B] for the pair. On the daily chart, the pound has seen six consecutive positive days against the dollar, bringing us to a key historical level at 1.5000, which could determine the medium-term outlook for the pair.

In terms of levels, the pair could find support from the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart around 1.4870, while below this level it should find further support around 1.4800, which coincides with the 50-period SMA. The area between 1.4700 and 1.4740 is considered to be a [B]risky [/B]in order to determine the real direction of the trend. In fact, I expect any future movements on the exchange rate to be based more on technical than fundamental factors.

[B]USD/CAD Bears back in the drivers seat![/B]

The Canadian dollar ended the week [B]higher [/B]2.48% against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada [B]Interest Rate [/B]decision met expectations to remain stable at 0.75%. The plunge in oil prices stalled the economy and dragged down its growth. However the Central Bank stated in its monthly statement that expects economy to be boosted by the eased credit conditions caused of the interest rate drop in January and the US increasing demand, which is forecasted to recover after a recent slowdown. However, the CAD gave back some of its gains on Friday despite better than expected [B]inflation [/B]and [B]consumer spending[/B] data. Consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, confounding expectations for an increase of 0.3%, following a 0.2% uptick in February.

The USD/CAD pair [B]escaped [/B]from the range which started back in January 2015, when the price was trading between the 1.2840 and 1.2350 levels. USD/CAD is looking pretty [B]bearish [/B]at the moment, having broken through two [B]significant [/B]levels, the 1.2400 and the 1.2350. For confirmation of the trend reversal, we will need to see a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which includes the strong support level of 1.2050.

Support should be found along the way around 1.2000 and 1.1900, before any pattern set up. If the pair fails to break below here, resistance should be found around 1.2350, previous level of resistance.

[B]XAU/USD holds neutral bias[/B]

The yellow metal remains [B]stuck [/B]in a range between $1,178 and $1,225. Last week we saw a [B]break attempt[/B] on both sides, but both failed, highlighting the fact that the markets are [B]lacking direction[/B] over the last month. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA is continuing to provide resistance to the price after it once close above here last week.

There is a clear [B]battle [/B]going on around the psychological level of $1,200 as highlighted on the 4-hour chart, but it’s not clear at this stage who has the upper hand, the [B]bulls [/B]or the [B]bears[/B]. The 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the $1,184 level are continuing to provide support below.

Bearing the above in mind, if we see a close outside of this range, it should give us a [B]big clue[/B] about what the [B]bias [/B]in the market actually is. If we see a break lower, further support should be found around $1,178. Below here, further support should be found around $1,165. A break higher, on the other hand, would suggest the bias is still bullish in the market, prompting a move back towards $1,250, a strong technical level.

[B]EUR/USD could test 1.0700 ahead of Eurogroup meeting[/B]

The shared currency finished the week 1.9% higher against the greenback on Friday, its largest weekly gain against the US dollar in four weeks. In addition, last week the pair rose for four days in a row following a negative start of the week -0.36%. However, the euro remains under pressure on the back of the Grexit fears. Greece will be meeting with its creditors on April 24th to discuss Athens’ massive debt bailout programme.

The EUR/USD pair found strong support around the 1.0520, slightly above the 1.0460 lows seen in March. From here the pair rebounded higher quite aggressively and managed to break above the psychological level of 1.0700. This is a significant level as it includes the 50-period SMA as well as the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. Remaining on the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the pair has found significant resistance around 1.0850 and its now testing once again the 200-period SMA.

Therefore, as it stands, the next target for the pair should now be the psychological level of 1.0700, although resistance could be found along the way around 1.0740, previous level of resistance (1-hour chart). If the pair fails to break below the 1.0700 level, we could see further pressure on the 1.0850, with a break above there to prompt a more aggressive move towards the psychological level of 1.1000.

[B]GBP/USD bulls failed the psychological 1.5000 barrier [/B]

The pound surged above the psychological level of 1.5000 against the dollar the previous week and touched the 1.5055 on Friday before recording another false break in the last month above that barrier. The GBP/USD pair ended the week with gains of 2.26%.

Last week’s U.K. labor market report was slightly weaker than expected with the claimant count falling by 20k instead of the forecasted 29k while the U.K. unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 2008. The ILO jobless rate eased to 5.6 percent in three months to February from 5.8 percent in September to November.

On the weekly chart, the pound has seen a short period of consolidation against the dollar and I would expect the GBP/USD pair to continue consolidating between the key support level of 1.4740 and the psychological level of 1.5000 ahead of the all-important BoE MPC meeting. The zone of 1.5180 – 1.5200 is key to understanding whether we are watching a trend reversal for the pair. On the daily chart, the pound has seen six consecutive positive days against the dollar, bringing us to a key historical level at 1.50, which could determine the medium-term outlook for the pair.

In terms of levels, the pair could find support from the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart around 1.4870, while below this level it should find further support around 1.4800, which coincides with the 50-period SMA. The area between 1.4700 and 1.4740 is considered to be a risky in order to determine the real direction of the trend. In fact, I expect any future movements on the exchange rate to be based more on technical than fundamental factors.

[B]USD/CAD Bears back in the driver’s seat![/B]

The Canadian dollar ended the week higher 2.48% against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision met expectations to remain stable at 0.75%. The plunge in oil prices stalled the economy and dragged down its growth. However the Central Bank stated in its monthly statement that expects economy to be boosted by the eased credit conditions caused of the interest rate drop in January and the US increasing demand, which is forecasted to recover after a recent slowdown. However, the CAD gave back some of its gains on Friday despite better than expected inflation and consumer spending data. Consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, confounding expectations for an increase of 0.3%, following a 0.2% uptick in February.

The USD/CAD pair escaped from the range which started back in January 2015, when the price was trading between the 1.2840 and 1.2350 levels. USD/CAD is looking pretty bearish at the moment, having broken through two significant levels, the 1.2400 and the 1.2350. For confirmation of the trend reversal, we will need to see a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which includes the strong support level of 1.2050.

Support should be found along the way around 1.2000 and 1.1900, before any pattern set up. If the pair fails to break below here, resistance should be found around 1.2350, previous level of resistance.

[B]XAU/USD holds neutral bias[/B]

The yellow metal remains stuck in a range between $1,178 and $1,225. Last week we saw a break attempt on both sides, but both failed, highlighting the fact that the markets are lacking direction over the last month. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA is continuing to provide resistance to the price after it once close above here last week.

There is a clear battle going on around the psychological level of $1,200 as highlighted on the 4-hour chart, but it’s not clear at this stage who has the upper hand, the bulls or the bears. The 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the $1,184 level are continuing to provide support below.

Bearing the above in mind, if we see a close outside of this range, it should give us a big clue about what the bias in the market actually is. If we see a break lower, further support should be found around $1,178. Below here, further support should be found around $1,165. A break higher, on the other hand, would suggest the bias is still bullish in the market, prompting a move back towards $1,250, a strong technical level.

[B]WTI’s rally halted by the $58.60 level
[/B]
WTI is continuing to push higher over the last few weeks, paring some of the losses made since it reached its 2014 lows on mid-March around the psychological level of $42.00. We saw a brief pullback this week towards the $55.70 level, before a continuation of the move higher on Tuesday above the $58.00 level.
WTI Crude oil surged on heavy buying after rebounding from the massive support level of $50.00. This is a significant level since it includes the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart as well as the ascending trend line, which started back in mid-March. The price bounced nicely and steady off from both the aforementioned levels obstacles before closing above the psychological level of $55.00.

However, the upward move which started from the $50.00 level was halted by the $58.60 level, a new found resistance. Since then, the WTI has been trading within a broadening formation, roughly around the $57.00 level, whilst moving down to the psychological support level at $56.00 and up to $58.60.

Bear the above in mind, I would expect the price to move further upwards, since the price is moving in a clear uptrend and by the fact that the 50-period SMA is moving above the 200-SMA. In addition, the WTI is trading above the ascending trend line and the 200-period SMA. Therefore, a break above the $58.60 level, would bring a more bullish outlook and subsequently I would be looking for a move higher towards another psychological level at $60.00.

On the other hand, a dip below the $96.00 level, could add further pressure on the key support level at $55.00 and thus, would open the way towards the $54.15 barrier. I only expect the pullback to be temporary though, with the latter level being the next target to the downside.

[B]Dollar tumbles ahead of ADP Employment Change report [/B]
The greenback continuous to lose ground against almost all its G10 peers during the European morning Tuesday despite the better than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was watched closely yesterday as reflects the change in the business conditions in the Non-Manufacturing sector, the sectors that the leading NFP indicator gauges the job positions openings. An index reading above 50 shows an expansion in the non-manufacturing sector and obviously a larger number of job vacations open. April’s index has increased to a five-month high at 57.80 beating expectations of slowing down to 56.2.

[B]EUR/USD Pushes Higher ahead of ADP Report[/B]
The shared currency was stronger against most of the other major currencies after the European Commission released yesterday its forecasts for the economic growth of each European country. The big picture shows that the Europe is forecasted to recover broadly and the Quantitative Easing by ECB to have a major positive impact on the financial markets and the credit conditions. The countries with tight financial conditions before the QE are expected to have affected more by the program.

EUR/USD rebounded from the 50-period SMA, slightly above the key support level of 1.1030 as investors looked ahead of the ADP Employment Change report and the all-important Friday’s NFP report. The EUR/USD pair has been in an upward trend for more than weeks now, following the strong rebound around the psychological level of 1.0500. Since then, the euro is rising, taking out some important obstacles including the key level of 1.0850, the psychological level of 1.1000, as well as the 50-period and the 200-period SMA on both timeframes, the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
The daily chart as well as the weekly chart highlights that the bulls are under strong momentum driving the price back towards the psychological level of 1.1300. With the US ADP coming later in the day, we could expect any kind of reaction as the US employment change, including the NFP report on Friday, will determine the pair’s move and trend direction.

If we see a close above the key resistance level of 1.1300, then we could see a bigger retracement, following three positive weeks for the euro, prompting a more aggressive move towards the 1.1450 level. The former level is significant as it includes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, for confirmation of the trend reversal, we will need to see a break above the key resistance level of 1.1500.

[B]GBP/USD moves higher ahead of UK Election [/B]
The pound is trading higher against the dollar, following the strong rebound from the 1.5080 level, which includes the short-term ascending trend line started back in early April. The GBP/USD pair is receiving support from the aforementioned level and the 200-period SMA slightly below the psychological level of 1.5000. The markets will now be paying attention to the UK election especially as the two major parties have differing views on the country’s status in the EU. Having said that, sharp volatility is expected within the upcoming short period.

Technically, we have said that a move above the psychological level of 1.5000 would be a very bullish development for the pound. Therefore, I remain strong bullish on GBP/USD with the initial target being the 1.5300 and a move through would bring 1.5475 into sight. Furthermore, a close above the 1.5475 and the 200-period SMA on the daily chart would be a very bullish indicator.