[B]Markets Unmoved by Nice Attacks[/B]
A sad state of affairs on society reflected in markets not even batting an eyelid to another major terrorist attack. This is the new normal.
Check out the charts in today’s Forex Market Update.
[B]Turkish Military Coup Just a Minor Market Speed Bump[/B]
A military coup in a NATO member country, with hugely important geopolitical dimensions, positioned between the Middle East and Europe, sharing border with ISIS infected Syria should probably jolt markets, right? Wrong, this is 2016.
Stay safe, manage your risk and trade your levels. Enjoy the week!
[B]Aussie and Kiwi: Brothers in Focus[/B]
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA is today’s economic calendar highlight, with an expectantly dovish market hanging on the words of Governor Glenn Stevens.
At the last RBA meeting earlier this month, the bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and expressed concerns about global economic growth and uncertainty following the still fresh Brexit vote. But while the Aussie has rallied on a no cut since the meeting, it hasn’t done any technical damage because everyone knows the cut is most likely to come in August.
Check out the Aussie and Kiwi charts.
[B]US in Focus: SP500 and the USDX[/B]
There are a plethora of analyst soundbites doing the rounds today, featuring the standard “stocks are at record highs because the chance of a US recession is no longer there, deflation is out the window and the labour market is still printing respectable numbers release after release throughout this period of uncertainty.”
Sure it’s such a convenient and simplistic way of looking at markets on a day to day basis, but it really is what it is.
[B]A Clear RBNZ Keeps NZD/USD Trading Technically[/B]
“Dear RBNZ,
As Forex traders, we thank you for your open, clearly communicated dovish monetary policy path. Nobody here likes unpredictability.
Now all that’s left to do is cut rates on August the 11th.
Regards and remember that the trend is your friend,
Forex Traders”
Are you finding the way NZD/USD steps between support/resistance to be clear?
[B]Draghi Unmoved[/B]
The European Central Bank overnight, kept interest rates on hold at zero as expected.
But with the whirlwind of uncertainty that surrounds a post-Brexit Eurozone including stubbornly low growth and a struggling Italian banking system, Draghi’s press conference was, as always a media gold mine, that kept markets hanging on his every word.
Do you see opportunities in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY?
[B]Majors at Key Levels Heading into a Packed Week[/B]
What a week we have ahead!
It’s FOMC/BoJ later, sure. But lets first not overlook the Australian second quarter inflation data released Tuesday during Asia:
Read our preview of this packed trading week!
[B]Rumours and Chit-Chat While we Wait[/B]
“All just day to day noise of financial media which you as Forex traders, need to be able to filter when making trading decisions.”
Get your dose of rumours and chit-chat while we wait for FOMC!
[B]ACTION! The Week Truly Begins with Australian CPI[/B]
If you’re only just settling down in front of your trading screens for the first time this week then you’ve timed yourself perfectly.
The charts from the Vantage FX Daily Market Update are playing out nicely.
[B]AUD/USD and USD/JPY: Has Central Bank Uncertainty Trashed the Trade?[/B]
The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged and rhetoric rather bland in a fairly inconspicuous statement early this morning.
“USD Federal Funds Rate: <0.50% v <0.50% as expected"
Has Central Bank uncertainty trashed your trade setups?
Strap yourselves in because your USD/JPY stops aren’t going to help you make money today!
So. Can the BoJ Provide Anything but Disappointment for USD/JPY?
[B]BoJ Game Plan Recap[/B]
Leading into Friday’s Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, we questioned whether anything they could do wouldn’t disappoint markets. In short, the answer was always going to be, and subsequently was, no.
Check out our BoJ Game Plan Recap and be sure to follow the blog for more real time trading opportunities in the future.
[B]RBA: To Cut, or Not to Cut, That is the Question[/B]
There are no prizes for being right or wrong on a central bank call and just because you side with consensus and get it right, doesn’t mean the market will give your trade the strong directional move you’re looking for.
[B]Trading Misplaced Market Expectations: AUD/USD and USD/JPY[/B]
There you go. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates to a record low level of 1.5%.
With the Aussie well off its highs heading into the release in a weak USD environment, the surveyed economists and the pre-release market ‘got it right’.
But other than an immediate post decision headline spike down, the Aussie rallied basically vertical for the day’s three trading sessions. Yes, the currency RALLIED on a rate cut.
Read more about trading misplaced market expectations.
[B]The Bank of England Delivers and Cable Drops[/B]
The Bank of England did as expected (although maybe one month later) and cut its official interest rate 25bps from 0.50% to 0.25%. The lowest level in it’s entire 322 year history.
GBP Official Bank Rate: 0.25% v 0.25% expected and 0.50% previous.
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: 0-9-0 v 0-9-0 expected and 0-1-8 previous.
Read the full Bank of England Analysis inside the Vantage FX Daily Market Update.
[B]NFP Pounds Expectations: USD Up, Gold Down[/B]
[B]USD Non-Farm Employment Change:[/B] 255K v 180K expected and 292K (revised up from 287K) previous.
[B]USD Unemployment Rate:[/B] 4.9% v 4.8% expected and 4.9% previous.
[B]USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m:[/B] 0.3% v 0.2% expected and 0.1% previous.
What a blowout! And for the second consecutive month too.
See the charts on today’s Vantage FX Daily Market Update.
[B]The Highly Technical NZD/USD[/B]
“With the RBNZ expected to cut on Thursday morning, direction will come from any forward guidance in the accompanying rate statement. Expectation seems to be that Wheeler will take a neutral stance heading into the decision and combined with the continual hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment, the pair has continued to rally whether the USD is or not.”
See how technical NZD/USD is moving.
[B]Pips in the Kiwi as RBNZ Cuts Rates[/B]
Following price bouncing out out of the higher time frame support zone, we were watching the intra-day levels for an entry to get long. With price never getting below the previous swing low, there were ample opportunities to take a long entry with a reasonably tight stop.
And following the RBNZ rally on a 0.25% rate cut (the new normal it would seem), NZD/USD longs got an extra potential +170 pips on the spike.
AUD/USD: The Hairy Bull
[B]A hairy bull.[/B]
I’m not sure how to describe a bullish Aussie Dollar that has been rejected off the next level of higher time frame resistance, so lets just go with that!
Trade AUD/USD with Australian Forex Broker, Vantage FX.
Six Consecutive Red Daily Candles for USD/CAD
Six consecutive red daily candles for USD/CAD and a spike up in Oil has caught the attention of Forex and Commodity traders alike.
Check out the full USD/CAD analysis in today’s Vantage FX Daily Market Update.