EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD direction will be dependent on tomorrow’s FOMC news event and potential interest rate hike in the USA. For the moment price is above support (green) and could be posting a new higher low as part of a wave X (purple).
1 hour
The EUR/USD could still be in correction within wave X (purple). A break of the resistance trend lines (orange/red) is needed before the wave X can be considered completed. A break of 1st support (light green) could see price fall towards the next Fib level or the next support trend line (dark green).
GBP/USD
4 hour
After the GBPUSD completed a 5 wave bullish pattern, it now seems to be correcting as part of a wave B (orange). However, just as with the EUR/USD, the currency market direction will be highly impacted by Thursday’s FOMC event.
1 hour
The GBP/USD bearish momentum yesterday was strong after finding rejection at the resistance trend line (orange), which could be part of a bigger ABC (dark green). The invalidation level of the ABC is a bullish break above the trend line (orange).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY remains solidly in its triangle and it had a strong bullish bounce yesterday at the support trend line (green). Price could stay in the triangle until Thursday’s FOMC event.
1 hour
The USD/JPY used the support and resistance for a strong bounce at wave X (blue) and wave Y (blue).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD approached the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence.
1 hour
The resistance trend line (orange) could behave a bounce or break spot.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD respected the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Price needs to break resistance trend line (orange) before the chances of a wave Y (blue) developing increase.
1 hour
A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave count.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke support (dotted green) but is not showing a lot of momentum at the moment.
1 hour
The USD/JPY is in a contracting triangle chart pattern.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has been going sideways during the last week and has not been able to break below the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see price build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is showing a consolidation zone on the 1 hour chart.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD respected the trend line (green) and made a bullish bounce. Price is now in a contracting triangle with support (green) and resistance (orange) nearby.
1 hour
The GBP/USD is showing very choppy price action. The trend lines mark the boundaries of the contracting triangle pattern.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY bearish price action is moving down lower at a slow angle. A break above resistance (red) could indicate a chance for an ABC (purple) correction. A break below support (green) could price move further down towards the Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The USD/JPY has support and resistance trend lines nearby that mark potential boundaries of the triangle pattern.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is moving sideways in between strong layers of support (green) and daily resistance (red). The current wave count favors one more bullish push to complete wave C (blue) of larger wave Y corrections.
1 hour
The EUR/USD bearish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is completed and a bullish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is still developing.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD break of the resistance could see the continuation of waves Y (pink, blue). A break below support levels (green) could indicate the continuation of the downtrend which would invalidate wave X (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD continued to build a triangle (green/orange) chart pattern. If price makes a bullish break above resistance (orange) then the Fibonacci levels of C (green) could turn out to be targets.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY continued with its strong bearish momentum towards lower Fibonacci targets.
1 hour
The USD/JPY completed a wave 4 (orange) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and seems to be building another bearish leg within wave 5 (orange).
Major currency pairs arrive at invalidation levels
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is still showing choppy price action on this 4 hour chart. Price remains entrapped the support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. A bullish bounce seems most likely if price manages to stay above the 50% Fibonacci level. A push below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave X (purple) makes the current wave count less likely and a bearish variant more likely.
1 hour
The EUR/USD break above resistance (red) indicates a completion of the ABC (orange). If price shows a bearish bounce below resistance, then a continuation of the wave 5 (orange) within wave C (green) is more likely.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD is trying to push above the major resistance trend line (semi dotted red). The breakout has been slow and sluggish so far and price is struggling to break above the channel (purple/green) and horizontal resistance (orange). A break above resistance (purple) indicates that the wave Y’s are not yet completed and that a potential change of the wave structure could emerge. A break below support (light green) most likely starts a new bearish wave.
1 hour
The GBP/USD has pushed for a new higher high and is moving up towards the Fibonacci targets. The wave 5 posted a higher high but the oscillator is showing a lower high, which is causing strong divergence (purple lines).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY heading towards the Fibonacci targets of the wave Y (pink) correction. It is close to challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure.
1 hour
The USD/JPY bullish break of the resistance line (red) indicates a change of the current wave structure whereas a break below the support trend line (green) could indicate the start of a new bearish impulse.
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USDJPY bearish momentum aligned with wave outlook and Fibonacci
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is in bullish trend channel (purple) with resistance trend lines (orange) closeby. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).
1 hour
The EUR/USD needs to break below the channel before a bearish correction becomes a more likely scenario. For the moment a bearish ABC (orange) could be taking place but the wave count is vulnerable to change if price stays in the channel and/or breaks above the 100% level.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed the bullish ABC zigzag at horizontal resistance (red). Price is now testing the inner support trend line (green) and a bearish break could indicate a change to a downtrend. A break above resistance invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the potential for an uptrend.
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bullish waves within wave C (blue). Price is now respecting a layer of support (green) and has resistance above it. Price will need to break below support before a bearish momentum could start.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is moving down lower with lots of bearish momentum. Price was not able to break above resistance, which was in accordance with the wave analysis of the previous 2 weeks.
1 hour
The USD/JPY made a bearish break below the support trend lines (dotted green) and seems to be starting a new bearish impulse.
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EURUSD, USDJPY finally display flavours of momentum
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has indeed showed a continuation of the uptrend within the waves Y as indicated last week. Price is now reached a heavy resistance zone (red). A break above it could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a strong bullish impulse which seems best explained by a wave 3 (grey). Price could retrace for a wave 4 (grey) but must not retrace deeper than the 61.8% Fibonacci level otherwise the wave count is invalidated.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as price stays above the support trend line (green). Price is showing signs of struggle now at the horizontal resistance (red).
1 hour
The GBP/USD is showing choppy price action since the break of the inner resistance line (dotted orange), which can be explained by an ending diagonal (purple 5 wave). Whether wave 5 has been completed remains to be seen and price could push higher if it stays above the support trend line (green). A bearish break could lead to a bearish ABC (orange) or 123.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY has reached a large 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B (sea green), which could initiate a bullish rally or a correction.
1 hour
The USD/JPY could extend the 5th wave with an extension due to strong bearish momentum and lack of divergence via a wave 4 and 5 (orange). A break above the 61.8% of wave 4 makes the current wave count unlikely.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD remains above the support trend line (solid green), which could mark the difference between a retracement (for more upside) or a reversal (for more downside). For the moment a bearish ABC (blue) pattern seems the most likely path of least resistance.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is building a descending wedge chart pattern (orange/green). The EUR/USD break above resistance (orange) could indicate the end of the ABC (blue), although the Fibonacci levels of B vs A could still play a role. A break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of an ABC zigzag towards Fibonacci targets C vs A.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD’s has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B vs A. A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate the completion of the ABC (pink) and an expansion of the uptrend.
1 hour
The GBP/USD completed an ABC (blue) within wave B (pink). A bullish break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a completion of wave C (pink). A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could price expand wave A (pink) lower.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is building an ascending wedge triangle chart pattern (red/blue). A bullish break of the triangle could indicate a trend change (from down trend to uptrend) whereas a bearish break of the triangle could see a downtrend continuation unfold.
1 hour
The USD/JPY attempted to break above the resistance trend line (red) but has failed several times. A successful attempt could see the continuation of wave C. The other likely wave count is the start of an impulsive wave count via 123 (purple).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line of the downtrend channel (red/green). A bullish break, however, does not automatically translate into the end of the downtrend itself (see wave 4 on 1 hour chart). The 123 (purple) becomes more likely than an ABC if price manages to extend beyond the 161.8% Fibonacci target.
1 hour
The EUR/USD seems to have completed multiple wave 5s yesterday and price has now broken above a 1 hour resistance trend line (dotted red). The current retracement could be part of a wave 4 (green) which could see resistance confluence (orange box) 38.2% Fib level. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 4 vs 3 would make a wave 4 (green) less likely.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD bullish price action had sufficient momentum to break above the long-term resistance trend line (dotted red). The wave count has been changed to a bullish ABC zigzag (pink) reflect the bullish breakout.
1 hour
The GBP/USD strong bullish momentum saw continuation after breaking the trend line. Price could face strong resistance at the confluence of the previous top (red) and 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY failed to break above the resistance trend line (red) for a bullish breakout. The wave has been labeled as wave 5 (purple) due to the internal 5 wave structure which is visible on the 1 hour chart. A break of support (blue) would confirm the development of wave 2 (purple) correction. A breakout above the resistance would indicate an expansion of wave 5 (purple).
1 hour
The USD/JPY completed 5 bullish waves within wave 5 (blue). The 5th wave did not break the previous top which is called a “truncated” 5th wave. The current wave count suggests a bearish correction, which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 4 vs 3. In that case, the alternative scenario is that the currently marked bearish 123 (brown) would turn into an ABC completing a wave 2 (green) as part of an extended wave 1-2 (green).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD downtrend continues lower after making a retracement and breaking support (dotted green). A bearish 123 (purple) becomes more likely when price is able to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and is building a bearish 3rd wave (orange). Once the wave 3 is completed then a slow and gradual wave 4 correction is expected.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD failed to break the horizontal resistance (red). The broken resistance (dotted red) has now turned into a potential support level in the development of wave C (pink). The triangle pattern seems to be confirming the corrective mode at the moment.
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have made an ABC (grey) correction within the wave 4 retracement (green) as long as price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break of the resistance trend line (red) of the triangle helps confirm the start of wave 5 (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted red) of the contracting triangle chart pattern. Price is now moving higher as part of the wave 5 (purple).
1 hour
The USD/JPY broke above resistance (red) and price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after which is broke the steep support trend line (dotted green). This could indicate the completion of wave 2 (brown) at the 61.8% Fib but a push higher could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1. A break above 100% invalidates the wave count.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is building bearish momentum which seems to be part of a wave 3. Any pullback should not go above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) otherwise price invalidates the current wave count by moving above the bottom of wave 1 (blue).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD will be impacted the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision on Thursday 4 August. The Cable is now building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).
1 hour
The GBP/USD retraced back for a wave B (purple) and the pushed further for a new higher high, which could complete wave C (purple). At the moment the bearish momentum could lead to the start of a new wave 1-2 (blue) but the break of the triangle (purple lines) will indicate whether price can test the next resistance (orange) or support (green) lines.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has replaced the bullish impulse with the start of a bearish momentum. Price however needs to break below both support trend lines (green) before a continuation is possible.
1 hour
The EUR/USD seems to be building an ABC zigzag (green) within wave 4 (blue). Typically waves 4 are shallow retracements such as the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A break above the 61.8% and bottom of wave 1 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support could see the continuation of the downtrend.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD was impacted by the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to cut the interest rate from 0.5% to a record low of 0.25%. The Cable broke below the support level (dotted green) of the contracting triangle, which could trigger the start of more bearishness especially if price break below horizontal support and if it stays below the resistance (red).
1 hour
The GBP/USD made a strong bearish momentum yesterday which has been labelled as a wave 3 (blue). The wave 3 (blue) could still be ongoing but if a retracement does occur, then the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.
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Very nice markups, what do you use for news source releases?
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 2 (brown) correction but more bearish momentum is needed before this can be confirmed.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green), which completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (blue). The current pullback is expected to turn at shallow Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD keeps pushing lower with lower lows and lower highs. The bearish breakout is part of a wave 3 (pink) of wave 5 (blue) unless price breaks above the resistance line (red).
1 hour
The GBP/USD completed a wave 4 (grey) pullback as expected and then broke support levels (dotted green) to complete wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (blue). The 4 (blue) retracement is expected to stop at shallow Fibonacci levels. A break above the 61.8% makes the current wave count unlikely.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level by building a bullish channel, which could indicate the completion of wave X (brown). A bullish break above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) would confirm a larger uptrend, whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The USD/JPY has not been able to break above or below the channel (blue). The breakout direction will indicate the short-term trend.
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US Dollar cautiously developing bullish first wave
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is building a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, which would be invalidated if price manages to break above the resistance trend line (red). A break below the support levels (greens) should see a continuation of the bearish momentum.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is building an ABC (green) correction within wave 4 (blue). A break below the support level (green) could spark the start of the 5th wave (blue) whereas a break above the 50% Fibonacci level makes the development of a wave 4 (blue) less likely.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD would need to reach at least the 100% Fibonacci level before a wave 3 (pink) is confirmed but for the moment a bearish breakout is pushing with lower with lower lows and lower highs.
1 hour
The GBP/USD completed a wave 4 (blue) pullback as expected and then broke support levels (dotted green) to continue with the bearish momentum of wave 5 (blue). Price could now be heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (blue).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke above the smaller resistance (dotted pink), which is confirming the larger bullish bounce at the support trend line (green). Price is slowing developing a trend reversal but a break above resistance (orange/red) is needed before larger bullish moves could be expected.
1 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be building a bull flag chart pattern (green/red lines) within an impulsive wave 3 (pink or green).
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD switch momentum direction after bullish breakout
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD managed to break above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which has indicated has lead to a change in wave structure where wave 1 (purple) has been completed at the recent bottom. Wave 2 (purple) is invalidated if price manages to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke the resistance with strong momentum which indicates a potential wave C (blue).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD bearish breakout below the support trend line (dotted green) has not shown the momentum which a wave typically has. Therefore, the wave count now shows a wave 4 (blue) completed at the recent top. Price is either completing a 5th wave (blue) or more likely expanding it via an internal 5 waves (pink) as shown in the image.
1 hour
The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) and is building a bullish ABC zigzag (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be building a hook back to the support tend line (green). A bearish break would invalidate wave 1-2 (green) and revive the downtrend.
1 hour
The USD/JPY broke the support of bull flag chart pattern (dotted green) and is now at/near the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (green).
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US Dollar is close to completing wave 2 correction
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is now testing and challenging the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (purple). A break above the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (purple) and means that a larger wave 2 (brown) is still ongoing and active.
1 hour
The EUR/USD seems to be losing momentum at the Fibonacci resistance and has broken the steeply angled support trend line (green dotted). Price needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the completion of a wave 2 (purple) can be confirmed.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD remains in a downtrend with resistance indicated by the Fibonacci retracements of wave 2 (purple) and with targets indicated by the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 (blue).
1 hour
The GBP/USD completed the expected bullish ABC (green) zigzag. It could now be at a bullish bounce or bearish break spot. A bullish rally would enlarge the correction with a WXY (green). A break below the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green) could spark a wave 3 bearish momentum (pink).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be building a hook back to the support tend line (green). A bearish break would invalidate wave 1-2 (green) and revive the downtrend. A bullish bounce could see price rally to the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green) and the resistance trend lines (orange/red).
1 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (green) and has broken the resistance trend line (dotted red).
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Breakout direction to decide wave structure in Forex
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD bounced at the deep Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6% within a wave 2 (purple). A break above the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (purple) and indicates a large and complex correction. In that case the wave count will be changed to reflect the corrective zone. A break below support could still confirm the potential waves 3 (purple/brown) but sufficient momentum must be visible in the breakouts.
1 hour
The EUR/USD has clear resistance (red/Fib) and support levels above and below price. A bearish break could start the impulsive waves (purple/blue) whereas a bullish breakout would indicate an ABC correction (purple).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with a wave 1-2 (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC correction (blue) at the previous bottom, which has been labelled a wave X (green). A break below the support (green) and Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W invalidate the current wave count and indicate a downtrend continuation. A break above resistance (red) would most likely confirm a bullish rally for wave C (blue).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY indeed bounced at the support tend line (green). A bullish break above resistance (oranges) would confirm potential for a wave 3 rally (green).
1 hour
The USD/JPY has completed deep wave 2 pullbacks and might be starting with bullish momentum. A strong resistance level (red) however is nearby and a breakout is needed before the wave rally can develop.
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EUR/USD bullish breakout in wave E of contracting triangle
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red). A breakout above resistance could see price move towards the wave E (green) of wave 4 (blue), which has been added due to the lack of a bearish breakout. The consolidation zone on the daily chart is lengthy and suggests a contracting triangle chart pattern (ABCDE brown).
1 hour
The EUR/USD showed bullish momentum above the broken trend line (dotted red). Price is building an ABC bullish zigzag (blue) unless price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with a wave 1-2 (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC correction (blue) within wave Y (green) of wave 2 (pink). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY bounced at the support tend line (green) but has not managed to move away from it and is challenging the same trend line again. A bullish break above resistance (oranges) would confirm potential for a wave 3 rally (green). A bearish break below the 100% Fibonacci level indicates a potential for a renewed bearish trend.
1 hour
The USD/JPY has to break above the resistance trend line (orange) before a wave 2 (green) can be considered completed. The 100% Fibonacci level is the invalidation point of the wave 2 (green).
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USD/JPY bearish breakout expands wave B correction to 61.8% Fib
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red) of a larger contracting triangle chart pattern (ABCDE brown). A bullish breakout could see price move towards the wave E (green) of wave 4 (blue).
1 hour
The EUR/USD needs to break support (green) or resistance (red) trend lines before momentum can be expected.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5 wave (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD is building a neat downtrend channel (trend lines). A break above the channel and 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke below the support tend line (dotted greens), which confirms the bearish wave structure. Price seems to have space to fall towards the Fibonacci levels with main target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A.
1 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be building a wave 3 breakout.
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