The EUR/USD finally showed a bullish bounce at the support zone and a break above the resistance trend line (orange), which is probably starting a wave 2 (green) correction. Price has reached the 23.6% Fibonacci level but typically retraces deeper in a bearish wave 2 without breaking above the 100% Fibonacci level (invalidation).
The EUR/USD seems to be indeed in an ABC (purple) zigzag, which is most likely part of a larger WXY (brown) correction. At the moment a wave 4 (blue) and 5 could still take place within the zigzag.
The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before the wave 2 (blue) is completed. At the moment an extended wave 2 (blue) could occur via a WXY (orange) correction but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2 (blue).
The GBP/USD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 2 (blue). In the case that this indicates the completion of the WXY (orange) correction of wave 2 (blue), then a bearish wave 1 (orange) should start and price will eventually break support (green). In case the resistance trend line (red) breaks, price could retest deeper Fib levels of wave 2 (blue).
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The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the support zone (green lines) but the rebound stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci level. If price is indeed in a wave 2 (green) correction then I would expect price to expand the correction via a WXY (brown). A break below the support zone indicates the invalidation of a larger correction.
The GBP/USD turned at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (blue). The Cable needs to break below the support trend line (green) to confirm a downtrend continuation of a wave 1 (orange) within wave 3 (blue).
The GBP/USD bearish waves (grey) indeed broke below support (dotted green). A break below the next support (blue) could confirm the wave 5 (grey) of wave 1 (orange).
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The EUR/USD is building a contracting triangle pattern (orange/green) at the major support levels from the daily chart (green). A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price correct to higher Fibonacci levels. A break below the support zone (green lines) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.
The EUR/USD seems to have completed another ABC zigzag (blue) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels could indicate that price will extend the correction in a wave Y (brown).
The GBP/USD has both support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines nearby. The Cable needs to break below the support trend line (green) to confirm a downtrend continuation within waves 5. A breakout above resistance (red) might soon run into new resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.
The GBP/USD showed strong bullish momentum which could be part of a larger ABC (grey) zigzag. A break above resistance (red) could see price push to the 78.6% Fib of wave 2 vs 1. A break below the 100% of wave B vs A indicates a bearish breakout zone.
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The German DAX index break above the resistance trend line (dotted red) after it bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of a potential wave 4 (purple). The bullish break could be part of wave (purple) and multiple waves 1-2 (orange/green) could explain the series of higher highs and higher lows recently. However, a strong break above the resistance top (solid red) is needed to confirm the structure. A push below the support trend line (green) and 50% of wave 4 (purple) invalidates the waves 1-2.
Wave 2 (orange) seems to have been completed on a lower time frame. The bullish momentum after price bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (orange) has been marked as a wave 1 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) retracement has been choppy and corrective as price moves sideways via a WXY correction (blue/green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 could act as support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).
The EUR/USD is bouncing in between support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. Major support levels from the daily chart (green) are also key. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price correct to higher Fibonacci levels. A break below the support zone (green lines) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.
The EUR/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W could indicate that price will extend the correction in a wave Y (brown).
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The German DAX index seems to be building a retracement for a wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 could act as support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).
The wave 2 (brown) could test a deep Fibonacci like, such as the 61.8% or 78.6% levels, before completing the bullish turn. If that is the case, an ABC (purple) could develop within waves Y (green/blue).
The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted orange) as it expands its bullish correction after the strong downtrend bounced at daily support levels (green). The bullish breakout might struggle at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.
The EUR/USD seems to be in an ABC zigzag (purple) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bearish retracement could occur at the Fibonacci resistance. If price will extend the correction or restart the downtrend will partly depend on how price reacts to resistance: with lots of bearish momentum or with choppy correction.
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The proposed Constitutional amendment vote in Italy was rejected in a referendum on Sunday 4 December. The no vote won by a clear majority and took nearly 60% of the votes. The EUR/USD reacted with bearishness to the news and fell back to the daily-weekly support zone (green lines).
The support Fibonacci levels are key break or bounce spots. A break below the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X (brown) invalidates the correction and indicates a continuation of the downtrend (wave 5 blue 4 hour chart). A bounce at support could, however, see price expand the correction of wave 2 (green).
The German DAX index is showing a retracement towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (brown). Price has bounced at the 50% Fib but a deeper pullback could occur to lower Fib levels if the rally fails to break above resistance (red/orange). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 should act as a support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).
The EUR/USD bounced at the support zone (green lines) as expected and indicated in yesterday’s wave analysis. The bullish rally has been strong and impulsive but could face resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (green). Waves 2 do tend to retrace deep so price might only pause at the 38.2% Fib but eventually retrace to a higher Fib like the 50% level.
The impulsive bullish rally seems to be a wave 3 (blue) which means that a shallow wave 4 (blue) correction could emerge. The bullish 5 waves could complete (blue) a larger ABC (purple) zigzag within wave 2 (green).
The bullish break above resistance (dotted red) is keeping its momentum but will most likely face a key bounce or break spot at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (green). A break above the 61.8% could also make it likely that a different wave structure is valid (rather than a wave 4).
The Cable is building a rising wedge chart pattern (red/green lines) which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. A break below the support trend line could start a new downtrend but the danger of a bullish continuation is always present. A break above the resistance trend line could see price extend wave 5 (brown/purple) towards the Fib targets.
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The EUR/USD bullish bounce at the support zone (green lines) could see a continuation higher once price completes a wave B (purple) at one of the Fibonacci levels. The bullish zigzag should price towards the Fib levels of wave 2 (green) without breaking above the 100% level (invalidation).
The EUR/USD failed to break the top and built a larger ABC (blue) correction instead within wave B (purple). Price needs to break above resistance (red) before a wave C (purple) is confirmed. Price could have completed the wave B (purple) at the 38.2% Fib but could also retrace deeper towards the 50% Fib, which will depend on the price action during the European and London open.
The GBP/USD indeed broke the rising wedge chart pattern which was mentioned yesterday. Price broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which could indicate that the WXY (blue) correction is completed within wave 4 (green).
The rising wedge formation was an indication of a potential reversal pattern and price seems to be building bearish 5 waves as part of a potential new trend.
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The EUR/USD turned at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave B (purple). The bullish zigzag could price towards the Fib levels of wave C (purple) and wave 2 (green) but a break above the 100% level invalidates the wave count.
The EUR/USD could extend the wave C (purple) with an internal 5 wave (blue) if price manages to break above the previous top. A break below the support trend line (green) could still be a retracement within wave B (purple).
The GBP/USD break of the rising wedge saw the start of bearish momentum which has been labelled as a wave 1 (blue). The wave 2 (blue) pullback could turn at the Fibonacci levels but a break above the 100% invalidates the wave count.
The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag (purple) as expected and price turned at the Fibonacci levels of wave2 (green). The strong decline could be part of a wave 3 (green) if price manages to break below the weekly support zone (green lines).
The EUR/USD bearish price action seems to have completed a wave 1 (brown) and price could build a retracement within wave 2 (brown). A break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count.
The GBP/USD also showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which could be part of a larger wave 1-2 (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) is needed before a larger wave 3 (blue) within waves 5 is possible.
The wave 3 (blue) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 4 (orange). A break below the support (green) could see a wave 5 of wave 3 (blue) develop.
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The EUR/USD bearish trend is yet again challenging the major support levels (green lines) from the long-term time frame charts. A bearish break should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green).
A bullish bounce however could see the EUR/USD build a bullish retracement within wave 2 (brown). A break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count.
The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within waves 5 is possible. A break above the resistance trend line (red) would invalidate the current wave structure.
The GBP/USD is moving sideways which is often a wave 4 (orange) type of formation. A break below the support level (green) could see price continue within wave 3 (blue).
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The EUR/USD bearish price action bounced at the major support levels (green lines) from the long-term time frame charts. A bullish retracement is probably occurring within a larger downtrend, which has been labelled as a wave 2 (brown). A bearish break below support (green) should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green)
A bullish bounce is indeed creating a retracement within wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as resistance, but a break above the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (brown) count. A break above resistance could see price continue to the 50% Fib. A failure to break the support (green) could see a wave B (purple) develop.
The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the current wave count.
The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend lines (dotted) with strong momentum which has been labelled as a wave c (purple). The Fibonacci levels could act as resistance but a break above the 100% level invalidates the structure.
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The EUR/USD is probably building bullish retracement within the larger downtrend. Wave 2 (brown) however becomes invalidated if price were to break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bearish break below support (green) should see price continue lower within a wave 3 (green).
The EUR/USD is building an ABC zigzag (purple) correction within wave 2 (brown). The Fibonacci levels are expected to act as resistance with wave 2 vs 1 and as support with wave B vs A unless price breaks below the support zone (greens).
The GBP/USD needs to break below the support trend lines (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the current wave count.
The GBP/USD made one more higher high but then turned at the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level. This could have completed the wave 2 (brown) but a break above the 100% level at 1.2775 invalidates that wave count.
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Yesterday the central bank of the U.S. (Fed) decided to increase its interest rate by a quarter percent from 0.5% to 0.75%. The rate hike had a positive impact on the US Dollar (USD), which saw gains across the board against the EUR, GBP and JPY. The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) and fell below the 1.05 support level (dotted green). Price will however still need to break below the previous low at +/-1.0450. A bearish break is needed before a wave 3 (brown) has the potential to be confirmed and develop beyond the 100% level.
The EUR/USD completed the ABC zigzag (purple) and most likely finished wave 2 (brown), although it does depend on how price reacts at the last support level (green). A strong bullish bounce could indicate that a correction is still ongoing.
The GBP/USD also responded with bearish price action in response to the rate hike in the US. The Cable respected the resistance trend line (red) and showed a bearish turn. Price broke below one support trend line (dotted green) but still needs to break below the next support trend line (green) before a larger wave 3 (blue) within wave 5 is possible.
The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 3 (orange) impulse and could head towards lower Fib targets. Once wave 3 is completed, it should build a shallow wave 4 correction and then continue with a wave 5 within wave 3 (blue).
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The EUR/USD bearish break below the support levels (dotted green) is seeing a bullish retracement at the moment. A wave 3 (brown) now seems likely although price needs to push below the 100% level to confirm a wave 3. The broken support (dotted green) could have the opposite role and become future resistance.
The EUR/USD seems be in a wave 4 (purple) correction. A bearish turn at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) could indicate a continuation of wave 3 (brown). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 makes a wave 4 (purple) unlikely.
The GBP/USD bearish trend is also seeing a bullish retracement develop. The Cable could see further extensions to the Fibonacci targets if price manages to break below the 161.8% level.
The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (orange) correction and the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 could act as resistance. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 makes a wave 4 (orange) less likely.
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The EUR/USD bullish retracement indeed turned at the broken support (dotted green) and broke below support (dotted blue). A wave 3 (brown) seems likely if price is able to break below the new bottom (green) and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1.
The GBP/USD downtrend is testing the support level at the 161.8% Fibonacci area. A bearish break below support (blue line) could see price extend its fall towards the Fibonacci targets.
The GBP/USD indeed completed a wave 4 (orange) correction at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The trend line (red) and broken support (dotted greens) should act as a resistance zone. A break below support (blue) could see price extend its fall towards the Fibonacci targets.
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The EUR/USD downtrend remains intact as price stays below the resistance (red) and broken bottoms (dotted green). However, price has not been able to move away from the support zone and a wave 3 (brown) only becomes more likely when the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 is broken.
The EUR/USD bearish breakout below support (green) could see price continue with the downtrend. For the moment a larger and expanded wave 4 (purple) correction seems to be taking place via an ABC (blue).
The GBP/USD downtrend could be building a retracement within wave 4 (blue). A break today below the bottom of the current wave 3 (blue) could indicate that price is still continuing within wave 3 (blue).
The EUR/USD is in a downtrend as long as price stays below the resistance (orange) trend line and the broken bottoms (dotted greens). At the moment, price is building a correction and it will need to break below support (green/blue) trend lines and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 before a bearish continuation becomes more likely.
The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (red/blue) with an expanded wave 4 (purple). A bearish breakout below the support (blue) could see price continue with the downtrend.
The GBP/USD downtrend seems to indeed be building a retracement within wave 4 (blue). A break today below the bottom of the current wave 3 (blue) could indicate a downtrend continuation to retest the previous low (green horizontal line).
The GBP/USD Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue) should act as resistance spots for a potential bearish turn. A break above the 50% Fib does make a wave 4 (blue) less likely. A break below the support of the bear flag pattern (orange/blue lines) could indicate a bearish fall towards the Fibo targets of waves 5.
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The EUR/USD remains in a downtrend if price manages to stay below the resistance trend line (orange) and the broken bottoms (dotted greens). Price is building a correction and it will need to break below support (green/blue) trend lines and the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 3 vs 1 before a bearish continuation becomes more likely.
The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (red/blue) as part of the expanded wave 4 (purple). A break above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate the current wave structure. A bearish breakout below the support (blue) could see price continue with the downtrend.
The GBP/USD downtrend continues with a new lower low after completing a wave 4 (blue) retracement. Price could fall towards the Fibonacci targets in the upcoming trading weeks and retest the previous bottom (green line).
The GBP/USD remains in a bearish channel (red/green lines) after breaking the support trend line (blue dotted) for a bearish breakout yesterday. Price could bounce back to the top of the channel once the wave 3 (orange) is completed, which could be part of a wave 4 retracement.
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