The Pairs to Range Trade This Week - EUR/USD, EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD

EUR/USD


Event Risk Eurozone And US
Trading Tip - These are the event risks that are the most important to watch in the week ahead. Data could go either way for EUR/USD >> Buying at the range low may offer more probable trades since near-perfect horizontal levels like the one above rarely last for long. Be very wary of heavy data flow due and watch for the underlying effects of the ECB’s recent hawkish commentary. If the pair is trading right on resistance or support before a release, be wary of a break on momentum.
Eurozone – The European calendar will offer more than a few fundamental traps for traders looking for complacent price action. German, French and Euro-area growth will influence the market in that order. The German ZEW survey could be surprising as traders look for any clue to the investment and consumer climate following January’s VAT hike.
US – The fundamental picture for the US is a veritable mine field for range traders. The inflation (PPI and Imports) and trade indicators may receive little attention, even with modest surprises. However, the retail sales and University of Michigan reads should be suspected for at least some market reaction regardless of the actual print. Both housing starts and Empire Manufacturing are the true question marks, with nearly every fundamental trader having a forecast on these two releases.


EUR/AUD


Event Risk Eurozone and Australia
Trading Tip – Upcoming data is expected to be negative for the Australian Dollar, providing risks to the upside to the EUR/AUD. On the flipside, any negative surprises in German GDP could send prices immediately lower. A break above 1.6771 on a dovish RBA could provide a good price for a short on a strong profit potential to stop loss ratio.
Eurozone – The The European calendar will offer more than a few fundamental traps for traders looking for complacent price action. German, French and Euro-area growth will influence the market in that order. The German ZEW survey could be surprising as traders look for any clue to the investment and consumer climate following January’s VAT hike.
Australia – A front-ended calendar provides significant event risk on the RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. Markets expect Australian officials to soften their stance on inflation, as a downtrend in Consumer Prices eases the need for further monetary policy tightening. This could lead the Aussie lower through early trade.

AUD/NZD


Event Risk Australia And New Zealand
Trading Tip - These are the event risks that are the most important to watch in the week ahead. Data expected to be negative for AUD/NZD >> Look for quick moves, optimally on days that do not have both New Zealand and Australian data due. Be wary of tails in this pair, as they are often large, but give back quickly.
Australia – A front-ended calendar provides significant event risk on the RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. Markets expect Australian officials to soften their stance on inflation, as a downtrend in Consumer Prices eases the need for further monetary policy tightening. This could lead the Aussie lower through early trade.
New Zealand – The Kiwi calendar is deceptively sparse, with two key events to underline event risk for the small economy. Due first, Producer Prices will be important for interest rate expectations?moving the NZD in its wake. Later Retail Sales figures will be likewise significant, providing ample short-term risk for the Kiwi.