This week has a pretty crowded economic calendar with a lot of market-driver economic news coming up. Fed, Bank of Japan and RBNZ will have their policy meetings while U.S., UK and Eurozone will release their preliminary GDPs for the first quarter.
[B]Today[/B], early in the morning, the German IFO Survey will publish the Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations for April. Later in the afternoon, the U.S. Home Sales are expected to have increased slightly in March to 0.527M from 0.512M the month before. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April is also scheduled for release.
On [B]Tuesday[/B], all the attention will be turned to U.S., as important economic indicators will be released a day ahead of the conclusion of the Fed two-day policy meeting. The [B]Durable Goods Orders [/B]are expected to have increased by 1.7% in March compared to the month before that dropped by 3.0%.
The flash Markit Services PMI for April will be released as well as the CB Consumer Confidence for April which is forecasted to have slowed down in April. Meanwhile, in Canada the BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will give a press conference.
Later in the day, New Zealand’s Trade figures will be released while overnight, Australia’s inflation rate for the first quarter will be closely eyed. The year-over-year indicator is predicted to show that consumer prices rose by 1.8% the first quarter of 2016 from 1.7% the previous quarter. In Japan, the BoJ Governor Kuroda has a press conference.
On [B]Wednesday[/B], three major banks will have their policy meetings. Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have their interest rate decisions during the afternoon and overnight, the Bank of Japan. Early in the morning, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for May will be released. The final UK annual GDP for the first quarter of the year is forecasted to remain at the same level of growth at 2.1% while compared to the quarter before, the consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.4% lower than 0.6% before.
[B]At 18:00 GMT time Fed will announce its interest rate decision [/B]followed from a policy statement half an hour later. No changes to the monetary policy are expected but the traders will hang on every word of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen to get clues how many rate hikes the bank will do this year and when it will be the next one. The market started to get tired on the alternations of views that come out from the Fed policymakers, thus, I would expect a serious effect on the dollar only if a clear statement will be made in either way.
At 21:00 GMT time, the [B]RBNZ interest rate decision[/B] will be announced accompanied with a monetary policy statement. The benchmark interest rate is 2.25% and I wouldn’t expect them to change them for now.
Later in the Asian session attention will be turned to Japan. The National Consumer Price Index for March as well as the Unemployment Rate for the same month are coming out. The flash Industrial Production for March will be also out a few hours before the[B] BoJ monetary policy[/B]. The central bank will announce its interest rate decision and will publish the monetary policy statement.
On [B]Thursday [/B]morning, Germany’s unemployment rate for April will be released. Afterwards, in Eurozone, various sentiment indicators regarding consumers, businesses, services and industries in April will be released.
Going to U.S., the GDP for the first quarter is expected to slow down severely to 0.7% quarter-over-quarter from 1.4% before. There is no market consensus available yet for the year-over-year figure.
The weekly jobless claims will be released as usual as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices for Q1. The New Zealand’s Building Permits for March and UK’s Gfk Consumer Confidence for April will come out. Overnight, the Bank of Japan outlook report will be released.
On [B]Friday[/B], German Retail Sales for March will be released. In the UK, the Mortgage Approvals for March are expected. In Eurozone, three leading indicators will hog the limelight. March’s unemployment rate will be out, no changes are expected at the record low 10.3% level has been in February. The flash inflation rate for April is expected to show a contraction of -0.1% versus a flat month before. The flash figure of the first quarter’s GDP is predicted to show an expansion of 1.4% versus 1.6% the last quarter of 2015.
In U.S., the Personal Consumption Expenditures and the Personal Spending for March will be released. In Canada, February’s Gross Domestic Product will come out. Later in the day, the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April will be out.