FX Analysis by SGT Markets

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Again good data from U.S economy,

German GDP worse than expectations adds to worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. On the other hand, a “phenomenal” tax plan can be presented by President Trump during next speeches.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the first strong support at 1.0555 successfully tested. Now we are in a consolidation phase, median price 1.060 as target. Everything above 1.067 area will be overbought.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honour the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today Retail Sales. Job Market looked to be able to persist over expected levels even though mostly is allocated to Services. Inflation data worse than expected.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Again good data from U.S economy and Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are above the expectations. U.S data (building permits + Philadelphia fed manufacturing + initial jobless claims) better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries there was still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. This happened and now AUD/USD faces a strong resistance in 0.7735 area so we start to be in overbought.

Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the first strong support at 1.0555 successfully tested. Now we are in a consolidation phase, median price 1.060 as target. Everything above 1.067 area will be overbought.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honour the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Retail Sales Worse then Expected. Job Market looked to be able to persist over expected levels even though mostly is allocated to Services. Inflation data worse than expected.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Again good data from U.S economy and Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are above the expectations. U.S data (building permits + Philadelphia fed manufacturing + initial jobless claims) better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries there was still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. This happened and now AUD/USD faces a strong resistance in 0.7735 area so we start to be in overbought.

Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

German Manufacturing PMI + German Services PMI printed very good numbers. But concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Supports successfully tested, now we will test 1.04 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious as hopes for changes to fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration have so far failed to materialize. A solo presidential press conference on Thursday added to doubts over how effective the administration will be in enacting its economic agenda.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBP/USD

BoE’s member A. Haldane said he is comfortable with a neutral stance on the potential course of interest rates, while he reiterated that monetary policy could move in either direction and another BoE’s member, McCafferty, hinted at the fact that the economy could be closer to full employment than recent figures of wage growth show.

Eyes on today U.S. FOMC Meeting.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2530; Lower border: 1.2295.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia was mildly upbeat on the economy in its February minutes released Tuesday, affirming the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Crude prices settled higher, after hitting a 19-month high in intraday trade, after OPEC secretary reiterated that the oil cartel was sticking to its agreement to cut production.

But now AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Next stop: 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0610
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German GDP

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2530; Lower border: 1.2295.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Private spending for capital items dipped more than expected, raising some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Jannet]

Is a good analysis.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

German GDP below expectations adds to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Next stop: 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales

GBP/USD

GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are in a resistance area, a downside correction is expected. Ultimately eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend:Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Private spending for capital items dipped more than expected, raising some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend and 0.7735 is a strong resistance.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

German GDP below expectations adds to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Next stop: 1.055 first and then eventually 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Unemployment Change

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

UK GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are in a resistance area, a downside correction is expected. Ultimately eyes on 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia GDP Higher than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations too.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend and 0.7735 is a strong resistance. We expect price to drop down to 0.76 area, and that is happening.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Next stop 1.055 under test. If it fails to support then 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone Inflation data

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Last U.S. Gross Domestic Product print was below expectations.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are on 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are still bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty (not helped by uncertainties in Europe as well), because of USD relative stability and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia GDP Higher than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations too.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. Buyers probably await 0.76 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed President Yellen is speaking tomorrow along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.05 area under test and everything will depends on Yellen’s speech. If this support will fail then room down to 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

Eyes on today release: German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech

GBP/USD

Today major focus on Fed’s speeches. Eyes on Services PMI release too.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we testing 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are still bearish but there may be an upside correction, depending mostly on the speech by Yellen and on the earlier news released today.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Fed President Yellen is speaking tomorrow along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. Buyers will probably trigger a correction but next strong support is around 0.753.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed President Yellen spoke along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell. Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.061 resistance area under test. If this resistance will fail then room up to 1.07. Otherwise, re-test below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

GBP/USD

Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

UK Services PMI below expectations.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

We are still testing 1.23 area, strong support. If this test will see GBP/USD in 1.2450 area, first, and 1.2530, finally. In the contrary case, we will see 1.217 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to be in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, buyers trigger a correction between 0.7525 and 0.7597 but the very support is 0.7525, first, and 0.7440 finally and eventually.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus. Focus on today’s ECB Press Conference.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area @1.061 successfully rejected price down. Now there is room down below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: French Non-farm Payrolls + ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target. Now eyes on 1.197 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area @1.061 successfully rejected price down. Now there is room down below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

GBP/USD

Eyes on today Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target. Now eyes on 1.197 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance

USD

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t. Focus on today President Draghi Speech.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area nearby current price @1.0679 is likely to reject price down, below 1.061 area back again.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0463

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.
UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

As we wrote previously, resistance area nearby current price @1.0679 rejects price down.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core CPI + Retail Sales

Eyes on today release: FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference

GBP/USD

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.
Eyes on today job market’s data. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.217 ongoing. A failure of this level would consequently lead down to 1.197 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Important support around 0.75 area likely to be tested again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Ms. Yellen was somehow dovish, as she said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy.

The ECB, on the other hand, resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.
Fed’s Chairwoman Yellen said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are heavily in overbought. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Fed’s Chairwoman Yellen said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy. Australia Employment data are below the expectations.

China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected. In the USA., Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

Significantly worse than expected Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead this week as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Await data on inflation from the UK and euro zone surveys on business activity as Britain braces for Brexit.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are still in overbought. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Employment data are below the expectations. China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Today BoE Governor Carney Speaks and await data on inflation.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are still in overbought as resistance around 1.2410 area works fine. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

Eyes on today release: CPI + Governor Carney Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter

SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

The pound rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Tuesday after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

1.2410 resistance area still under pressure (fake break-out).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes on today RBNZ Interest Rate Decision.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. It is working fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
Forex Broker and CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Chair Janet Yellen ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

The pound rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Tuesday after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2410 resistance area still under pressure (fake break-out).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

RBNZ held Interest Rates steady as expected.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. It is working fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
…

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Markets are heavily underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD. USD heavily undervaluated.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

GBP/USD

Very good Retail Sales data. Good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2530 resistance started the pullback. Now eyes on 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

RBNZ held Interest Rates steady as expected.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

Seea above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

Home - SGT MARKETS