GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPAUD
Commentary – We wrote a few week ago that “we would like to see a larger correction in wave ii test the 232.38/233.68 area before we commit to the bearish cause. A break of 221.27 would turn us bearish for the drop to 210.00.” As it happened, the GBPCHF broke support and fell all the way to 213.58 this week. Wave 3 of C within the A-B-C decline from just above 251 is underway now. Wave C would equal A at 209.56. Potential resistance is the 38.2% of 228.36-213.58 at 219.23 and the 50% at 220.97. The bias is bearish as long as price is below 228.36.
Strategy – Flat
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Commentary – We wrote recently that “expectations are for a drop below 2.2602 to complete wave v (and larger C) from 2.4205. This would possibly complete a large correction from 2.4963. The individual legs of the cross support a bearish bias as well.” The GBPCHF did drop and dropped hard as it sits below 2.2000 now. There is obviously no sign that the decline is over but if this is a 5th wave, then the pair should find a low soon. The entire decline may be wave 1 of a larger 5 wave decline from 2.4963. If so, then a second wave setback that challenges 2.3360 is expected soon to begin soon.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – We wrote recently that “there is no change to the call for the GBPAUD decline to accelerate. We are bearish and expect the decline to accelerate in wave 3 of a 5 wave bear cycle that began in August at 2.5640. Keep in mind that this pair broke a supporting trendline that dates to 1985 back in August and that the next major support level is not until below 2.0000.” The decline is unfolding as expected and risk can be moved to 2.3603. The decline from 2.3887 would equal the 2.5640-2.2184 decline in percentage terms at 2.0669, which is the initial objective.
Strategy – Bearish, move risk to 2.3603 (from 2.3887), target 2.0700
