16 candles in the '58 edsel'

When you’re prepping correctly & constantly positioning yourself the correct side of the probability flows you’re going to get your fair share of good fortune when the cards deal these kinds of hands.
Obviously, the flip side will occasionally stop you out too, but it won’t be because you read the flows incorrectly.

You make your own luck in this game, but it greases the wheels much more efficiently when you possess a solid, consistent template to bring to the table as you’re slowly beginning to find out :wink:

Enjoy your profits & well done for placing yourself in that situation in the first place.

Yen is still the golden bollox of late & no mistake.

Every time it’s printed fresh highs, particularly v/s AUD CAD & EURO, which have been the stand out performers, the broker positional weightings have spiked indicating strong reversal positioning. A case of patiently waiting for the usual continuation set ups to begin rolling over before ensuring a decent enough percentage of average range is available, & step back into the dominant flow.

EURO will undoubtedly have neutralised a few add-in stakes from late last week during this mornings action, violating thursday & friday’s highs, but the other 2 are still chugging along handsomely.

CAD/JPY positions eased back before the w/end to just under two thirds long but it unsurprisingly spiked again earlier this morning to +87.4% on the approach to 82.0 & obligingly clicked back smoothly into short continuation mode as europe came onboard.

AUD/JPY behaved similarly on the approach to 83.0 but the spike wasn’t as dramatic. Having said that, unlike CAD, it’s struggled to put monday’s & last week’s lows in the rear view mirror thus far.

Nice bonus to start the week forexspot :slight_smile:

the more i observe the data the more these common behavioural patterns unfold.
it was exactly the same story the other week on oil & cac.

oil data weightings especially spiked, as both recorded extreme short readings whilst extending to fresh highs. the reverse was also noticeable when they began exhausting.

both those candidates positional weightings highlighted the behavioural changes all through week commencing April 10, which continued into this week as punters late to the party as usual, began loosening their short exposure recording a neutral bias read.
this morning oil is registering a slight long weighting as is cac.

as the guys have said, that’s often a pretty good sign we need to be either betting the opposite way or scaling out & going flat after a decent momentum leg.

All good things come to those who wait!

& right on cue oil trading with a recent heavy tone slips to fresh intraday & weekly lows :slight_smile:

Looking at their corresponding charts, those 2 very regularly dance the [I]round number shuffle![/I]

And as the retail broker positional data registers & presents skewed client biases in those scenarios, the higher tiered providers tell the true story, which supports your notion of aggressively opposing moves highlighting currencies or pairs that are clearly out of whack with current flows.

As you’re no doubt well aware, that dance is popular right across the spectrum.

They’ve proven to stand the test of time, certainly when using them in conjunction with daily & weekly range data. It merely makes the decision process a lot simpler when managing bets post-entry, especially on certain crosses that respect those levels on a very consistent basis, which is why they’ve formed the core of this & one or two other successful approaches down through the years.

They’re also pretty accurate exit-scratch prompts too when utilised in tandem with the high-low/low-high cycles & prior session levels.

If something aint broke then it doesn’t need fixing.
No point reinventing a wheel when the original works perfectly adequately.

The larger range crosses love them to bits, which i assume is what you were referring to.
As is the case most months, if you were just punting directionally via the filter & were limited to having only those up on your radar, you’d be like a kid in a sweetie shop.

Jack Mason has been earning his split percentage of Krantz’s wedge primarily punting them via dominant flow only on the big gun crosses for the past 4 years.

You can count the times where the previous level gets snapped after entry before the next ones get hit when triggering with dominant flow on the fingers of both hands. Add in sufficient daily/weekly range in the tank to justify the bet & it amps up the odds even more.

And to think this stuff was being visibly & actively pushed 10 years ago on here on the other thread.

the term woods & trees springs to mind dai morgan
woods & trees boyo

It’s not disimilar to that old computer tennis ping pong game.
I could think of worse defense & offense guides/barriers :slight_smile:

I was mate yeah, as per the grid stakz posted yesterday.

The stats feedback Krantz generated from punters confirmed, & still continues to, much bigger bang for your buck when betting (filtered) directional flow via the round number ladders by the very virtue of the extended daily & weekly range percentages. Sure, they’ve contracted marginally over the past 2-3 years, but still remain a workable play in this type of approach.

They’ve always tended to run a little further in trend mode too compared to the majors & reduced range pairings. It still only defaults to a major or inferior range pair when the strong/weak pendulum dictates, but over the past 18 months that scenario is the exception rather than the rule.

Horses for courses.

pound/aus 71 to 75, 136% of weekly range
euro/kiwi 57 to 60, 112% of weekly range
euro/aus 45 to 49, 160% of weekly range
pound/yen 144 to 146 76% of weekly range

4 of the 6 big gun crosses in your grid this week pitched from & to round numbers/figures & of the remaining 2, 1 pitched cleanly off it tuesday via a shallow pullback from the prior week high, easing off today up at +92% of weekly range.

  1. higher probability filtered dominant flow
  2. round numbers/figures
  3. daily/weekly range percentages
  4. session highs & lows

repetitive themes keying off logical, unambiguous data.
this isn’t just any data, this is marks & spencer data!

Talking of 160% of weekly range…

Bunches of luvverly stops + options defence levels, which are just as likely to get violated as they are to hold, hence the advice to engage ahead of, & trade into those key figures wherever possible in strong momentum moves to avoid getting prematurely shaken out in any potential whippy, chaotic price action.

It’s prevalent with those who come to the game totally unprepared mentally, practically & financially. They tend to possess flaky, non-existent discipline with no framework or structure from which to operate or key off.

If you’re directionless without a solid routine that stands up positively to the rigours of an ever evolving marketplace then your confidence will take a hit. That manifests itself in your activity footprint. Fortunately, those aren’t symptoms you lot will ever have to suffer from.

And neither should you, because every time you open up your graphs & dial into your execution terminals, from the identification & filtering process right through to the exit of each bet whenever that might be, you have a well drilled, set routine to follow which covers everything & can be applied across any & all instrument classes you choose to bet on.

That’s why we advised you keep detailed records & data of the activity you undertake. That element of the process in this particular approach will usually isolate much of any inconsistencies or weaknesses at the identification & filtering stage. You’re then better placed to quickly adjust or tweak that aspect to strengthen that cog within the wheel.

You’re not wrong on that score. I took encouragement from sketcher’s foray into stocks & like him, have been working with a scanner.

Obviously dependent on market forces/conditions, it filters out potential bets from over 250 stocks & I then manually overlay the template structure to whittle them down to the best 2 or 3 to complement the fx, commodities & indices opportunities.

As you say, once you’ve identified the higher probability choices it’s the very same process whichever sector of the market is tracked & filtered.

What stocks have been on the short list recently? I’m assuming that you’re looking for bets rolling over several days rather than intraday opportunities, and focusing on pairs with high volume and low spreads?

The recent uptick in ranges has also allowed for a tad more activity & the occasional pyramid. I’m quite satisfied with this little “plug & play” model, even though I’ve put my own spin on the filtering process.

Actually I wanted to run this past you because I’ve been brainstorming a tad with a contact of mine that has had a successful career in the industry. The filtering, as you’ve pointed us to, is something of an “absolute momentum” comparison if I may? Essentially looking to buy the leaders and sell the laggards.

What I’ve done is a volatility scaling of this momentum. Essentially the leader is the one that’s pushing the strongest given it’s own volatility. So within FX this hardly ever changes things (although it does allow to scout out rising stars quicker, for example Kiwi this week), but when starting to compare FX vs. other asset classes it becomes necessary (imho) in order to effectively compare apples to apples.

It also helps address the various dimensions of the market better (price, volatility, time). It’s been an easy & logical task due to the fact that you guys have had us working with ATR since day 1.

Regarding the time dimension, I think you’ve also alluded to this by pointing us towards “shallow consolidations” in line with momentum. I may be the last one to catch onto this but the shallow consolidation would mean that price is “accepting” the new level, rather than rejecting it quickly. This would also logically mean that during retracements to key levels, we’d like to see a different behaviour: we’d want to see price reject the level quickly.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on this…

Thanks!

aet, 3m, xme, tsm, clr, yum, apc

I’m actually in the middle of working on a multi-radar set up Matt with a guy double 6 & apache introduced me to. I’m looking to take their identification/filtering template & introduce a layered intraday option which grades the better performing stocks pre-open primarily for that specific purpose, whilst rolling the traditional movers over into multi-day bets.

I’m very curious to hear what your contacts thoughts on it are because it’s an incredibly straightforward element of the process, as are all the other succinct elements.

Nothing groundbreaking, of course. Just an extension of the logic that we’ve been using in FX. He was basically saying that market participants express their views in teh most efficient way possible. If for example we want to take a view on the China slowdown/rotation out of industral metals and into services/recent impact on commodities then Aussie is a natural proxy, which has been hit also by it’s own domestic data recently. But AudUsd may not be the best bet. You’ve taught us to always seek max value by playing Aud vs. something strong (like Gbp this week too).

It has become “second nature” to do this in FX…and I was just trying to expand the concept. For example long AAPL/short Copper. Risk-on trade which should benefit from buoyant equities as well as the issues in the metals complex. But it’s also a pro-Volatility trade with Vix being so low. In case of a sell-off, Copper 's already in a downtrend whereas AAPL should resist the negative pull being a leader of the pack.

So in order to compare apples to apples, which sort of open up funky spread trades like this, it was suggested to simply volatility scale the performance of each asset. That way the performance is volatility-adjusted performance and equities, with their volatility, can be compared to FX.