stats are revealing punters have been struggling badly lately to get & keep a footing on any kind of ladder
it still bemuses us how or why they persist punting into visibly low probability biases & set ups, but there you go - that predicament wonât (or shouldnât) bother you boys & girls & on that score whatâs currently on your radars?
It has been very bitty & patchy lately, but i still like long oil, particularly as it held 48.0 all through last week which was the high of the prior week (comm 8th May).
i still have euro longs v/s
aud â maintaining its higher lows
usd â shallow pullback into the weeks open & good solid intraday cycles all last week since breaking 1.09
cad - held 51 r/n comfortably wed thru fri & again today
usd/cad short bias, closing at the lows last week with a shallow pullback into todayâs open complete my A list for this week.
Yes it still appears youâre all continuing to sing from the same hymn sheet judging by recent submissions, which is good to see.
I doubt youâll be surprised by now to discover that last week from tuesday through thursday whilst oil was being shouldered at that 48 round number, punters were throwing shorts at it like it was going out of fashion, just as it was gearing up to continue its northerly ascent in line with the current dominant directional flow. As NY came online thursday, the aggregated retail positioning recorded an 84.6% short exposure.
All through last week, shorts were increasing on eur/aud off the 1.48 & 49 round numbers, spiking at 87.6% into 1.50 (increasing today to 91.3%).
Similar deal with eur/usd.
Ftse punters got royally whacked friday trying to run thursdays slide & even more of their short stops got killed this morning on the continuation of the current dominant long flows.
Keep an eye on eur/jpy this week fellaâsâŚâŚpunters short stops got cremated on friday & more were burnt today through 125, but theyâre still piling into shorts. Youâre all aware of when your background will signal neutral, but that isnât quite yet.
Nervous short stops are clumped above todayâs highs tiered to last weekâs top @25.80, so be on your toes if it fails to slip through your usual alert levels.
A continued increase in short positioning since you posted that on Monday, culminating in itâs highest read weighting last night. And right on cue up it goes swallowing more stops on the way to last weekâs highs!
Early birds get the worm again & avoid any gusty crosswinds up at 125.80
Theyâre all making good ground in the right direction too, especially that dollar/cad short.
Youâre right. I for one definitely wonât make that mistake again. I offered a couple of pointers to someone today on Andyâs thread & this numpty barges in & starts throwing his dummies at me, lol.
Whatâs happened to this place?
In the good old days you could nudge & guide folks towards decent advice & information. I realise I havenât been around for a wee while, but it seems everyone on here is suspicious of their own shadows.
Those days are long gone buddy.
You try & offer a helping hand these days or link folks to more info as you & visualxray did recently & you get accused of having some sort of (financial) agenda. God forbid what kind of reception or accusations the girls, Andre & Jimmy et al would attract if they rocked up these days.
The mood changed & escalated around the start of 00âs when the gurus & product salesmen began rocking up one after the other & a lot of rookies as well as long standing regulars got suckered into their tall stories & nonsense.
If the forum police had waved a big stick right from the off & actively discouraged such activity it might not have instilled such a wide streak of suspicion & wariness throughout the place.
But the clowns, storytellers & product peddlers attract foot traffic with their flowery verbiage & useless tat & this joint relies on foot flow, so thereâs always going to resistance to trim their income streams by making life hard for that sector of forum membership.
As you say, just donât bother getting involved, be frugal with your advice & activity & let someone else pick up the slack.
However, the flip side being those sizzle sellers are kind of good news for you guys & us too.
A fair percentage of their target audience will be UK based & therefore get lured into opening brokerage accounts on the back of all that sizzle. A lot of them might not last very long, but hopefully the hardcore will enthusiastically continue to top their accounts up in the hope of eventually finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
And the types of typical strategies they employ offer us a regular heads up via the aggregated weightings stats on a daily basis. Match that up with a clear directional bias & thereâs no better leading indicator than continually fading the reversal players & indicator junkies, as Alt Tab reminded us on Monday & wyntac confirmed early yesterday.
Theyâve certainly been busy facing the wrong way again this week!
Iâm sure as I do, you lads cast an eye over the stats each day, but iâve now gotten into the habit of âdouble filteringâ the candidates with the weightings & it occasionally throws up big, colourful anomalies. Obviously theyâre not in abundance every week & the filter needs to be employed to match them up, but this week has thrown up more than its fair share.
A nice top-up to stick on the A list especially when pickings are thin during the phases when currencies rotate from one bias to another.
AUDNZD finally rolled over monday off the 1.08 double weekly high barrier & each (NY) closing session up to yâday recorded increased long weightings culminating in a 91% long order bias.
The other midweek [U]filtered[/U] candidates of note were;
GBPCHF â a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed (NY) close @88.3%
GBPCAD â a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed European open @80.7% & again yâday into the (NY) close @81.5%
Dow â a strong long play, largest short weighting into wed open @ 81.6%, just before breaking out through Tuesdayâs highs.
GBPNZD â short play, largest long weighting into thursdayâs european lunchtime @78.3%
Oh thereâs always a silver lining in those heavy fluffy clouds young man!
Theyâre a permanent scab on the skin of these forums & associated websites, but theyâre also very good for business. As with most things money related, the few savvy guys quickly suss them out & give them a wide berth, leaving the usual fodder to swell the brokers & winning punters coffers.
Youâd have thought the regularity in which they appear, most participants would be wise to it but in our experience that isnât often the case.
The same folk tend to fall for the sizzle sellers multiple times, which is even better for business. Mixed in amongst the newcomers are also long standing members with high visibility profiles who often develop a following on forums in their own right. The knock-on effect being those vulnerable newcomers are then pretty relaxed about putting all their eggs in their advice baskets if a high profile member is bigging up a particular guru, strategy, course or seminar etc.
There are all sorts of shenanigans played out in these places on a daily basis.
Given the extremely high foot flow these joints generate, theyâre quite lucrative hunting grounds for any number of agendaâs.
Within the (retail) space in which youâre operating, that view is spot on & the correct tactic to deploy, but thatâs not to say the types of strategies youâre referring to such as top & bottom reversal plays, round number/figure bounces & long range highs & lows arenât workable or financially lucrative, just not a profitable option in the hands of your typical retail punter.
Those types of tactics are operated relatively successfully in the institutional space via HFT algos.
They can very quickly pyramid up & stack large sized orders across small moves multiple times per session, even spreading that operation throughout tiered products, an option well out of the realms of the typical non-automated retailer. Itâs why you guys have been strongly advised to adopt the tactic & approach presented & been equally strongly advised to give the above a wide berth.
Playing to your strengths based on the environment youâre operating under is absolutely key if you wish to live long & prosper in this game.
Your man sketcher is beginning to see why we actively discouraged you fellaâs from pursuing the above & also witnesing the opportunities & accompanying rewards that game play can return when employed correctly, but of course the machines will only do what the programmers tell them to, therefore you still need to pick your battles & know when to switch products & also hit the off switch.
Iâve gradually been reading this thread over the last week or so and just wanted to thank those whoâve been contributing to it and keeping it going for so long. Thereâs a great deal of value and help here. (Iâm a bit surprised itâs in this part of the forum.)
Itâs parked here because thereâs a mix of topics within the content & this little corner kind of seemed chilled & not too starchy. Folks will find it if they need to.
Glad you like it, hope one or two elements add some zip to whatever youâre using.
Role call please. How many of you will still be contributing here, after the change? I have a quick update. Uggggg follow the rules you set for yourself!!! I was doing pretty good, then got greedy, then allowed a wider birth on entry, then got reminded how stupid I was being. But on a side note, I am extremely happy that it happened again. It didnât cost me a whole ton, and directed my focus to what I am doing right. I am now back on the right track. (At least I think I am)
didnât even realise theyâd been a change until I logged in just now.
I guess one of us will address anything thatâs posted once we get an alert, not sure why a change of forum graphics would deter responses?!
anyway, you need to ask yourself how come youâre still slipping up so easily on these basic set up criteria.
if youâve tightened up on your prep, entry & exit procedures & recognise when & why your higher probability game plays are unfolding, then at this stage of your activity these slips shouldnât be occurring should they?
sounds like a lot of these situations are mental or confidence barriers.
Thanks soultrain. Actually, I simply applied my âentryâ criteria on an unfamiliar time frame. I used my ⌠How do I say it⌠I used my view and structure look from an intraday perspective and tried to apply it on an intramonth perspective. It didnât work.
Itâs not so much it didnât or doesnât work more that it requires different objectives & a revised outlook.
For one, youâre going to require extremely deep pockets or be restricted to betting pennies if youâre using those kinds of time horizons. The pullbacks alone could stretch several handles deep.
Even locating traditional stop loss areas betting breakouts via those timeframes could prove challenging if youâre working off a small account as theyâll often necessitate at least a couple of handles worth of placement. You certainly wonât have too many alternative risk options at your disposal utilising that tactic working on a budget.
It might be an objective to work towards when you possess adequate funding & are comfortable with the large potential drawdowns associated with that type of game play, but itâll prove very challenging psychologically attempting it operating a tight or low financial stake.
Successful exponents of that particular style & time horizon are always very well capitalised, mainly because they diversify.
Thanks Saul, yes, as I watched it unfold, it became very clear that the methodology and thought process didnât jive. At least not with my current short term view.